Ensemble forecasts of a flood-producing storm: comparison of the influence of model-state perturbations and parameter modifications

High-resolution ensemble simulations (Δx = 1 km) are performed with the Met Office Unified Model for the Boscastle (Cornwall, UK) flash-flooding event of 16 August 2004. Forecast uncertainties arising from imperfections in the forecast model are analysed by comparing the simulation results produced by two types of perturbation strategy. Motivated by the meteorology of the event, one type of perturbation alters relevant physics choices or parameter settings in the model's parametrization schemes. The other type of perturbation is designed to account for representativity error in the boundary-layer parametrization. It makes direct changes to the model state and provides a lower bound against which to judge the spread produced by other uncertainties. The Boscastle has genuine skill at scales of approximately 60 km and an ensemble spread which can be estimated to within ∼ 10% with only eight members. Differences between the model-state perturbation and physics modification strategies are discussed, the former being more important for triggering and the latter for subsequent cell development, including the average internal structure of convective cells. Despite such differences, the spread in rainfall evaluated at skilful scales is shown to be only weakly sensitive to the perturbation strategy. This suggests that relatively simple strategies for treating model uncertainty may be sufficient for practical, convective-scale ensemble forecasting.

European plant phenology and climate as seen in a 20-year AVHRR land-surface parameter dataset

Vegetation distribution and state have been measured since 1981 by the AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) instrument through satellite remote sensing. In this study a correction method is applied to the Pathfinder NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) data to create a continuous European vegetation phenology dataset of a 10-day temporal and 0.1° spatial resolution; additionally, land surface parameters for use in biosphere–atmosphere modelling are derived. The analysis of time-series from this dataset reveals, for the years 1982–2001, strong seasonal and interannual variability in European land surface vegetation state. Phenological metrics indicate a late and short growing season for the years 1985–1987, in addition to early and prolonged activity in the years 1989, 1990, 1994 and 1995. These variations are in close agreement with findings from phenological measurements at the surface; spring phenology is also shown to correlate particularly well with anomalies in winter temperature and winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index. Nevertheless, phenological metrics, which display considerable regional differences, could only be determined for vegetation with a seasonal behaviour. Trends in the phenological phases reveal a general shift to earlier (−0.54 days year−1) and prolonged (0.96 days year−1) growing periods which are statistically significant, especially for central Europe.

TRY: a global database of plant traits

Plant traits – the morphological, anatomical, physiological, biochemical and phenological characteristics of plants and their organs – determine how primary producers respond to environmental factors, affect other trophic levels, influence ecosystem processes and services and provide a link from species richness to ecosystem functional diversity. Trait data thus represent the raw material for a wide range of research from evolutionary biology, community and functional ecology to biogeography. Here we present the global database initiative named TRY, which has united a wide range of the plant trait research community worldwide and gained an unprecedented buy-in of trait data: so far 93 trait databases have been contributed. The data repository currently contains almost three million trait entries for 69 000 out of the world's 300 000 plant species, with a focus on 52 groups of traits characterizing the vegetative and regeneration stages of the plant life cycle, including growth, dispersal, establishment and persistence. A first data analysis shows that most plant traits are approximately log-normally distributed, with widely differing ranges of variation across traits. Most trait variation is between species (interspecific), but significant intraspecific variation is also documented, up to 40% of the overall variation. Plant functional types (PFTs), as commonly used in vegetation models, capture a substantial fraction of the observed variation – but for several traits most variation occurs within PFTs, up to 75% of the overall variation. In the context of vegetation models these traits would better be represented by state variables rather than fixed parameter values. The improved availability of plant trait data in the unified global database is expected to support a paradigm shift from species to trait-based ecology, offer new opportunities for synthetic plant trait research and enable a more realistic and empirically grounded representation of terrestrial vegetation in Earth system models.

Serum carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes as potential biomarkers of dietary intake and their relation with incident type 2 diabetes: the EPIC-Norfolk study

Background: Stable-isotope ratios of carbon (13C/12C, expressed as δ13C) and nitrogen (15N/14N, or δ15N) have been proposed as potential nutritional biomarkers to distinguish between meat, fish, and plant-based foods. Objective: The objective was to investigate dietary correlates of δ13C and δ15N and examine the association of these biomarkers with incident type 2 diabetes in a prospective study. Design: Serum δ13C and δ15N (‰) were measured by using isotope ratio mass spectrometry in a case-cohort study (n = 476 diabetes cases; n = 718 subcohort) nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)–Norfolk population-based cohort. We examined dietary (food-frequency questionnaire) correlates of δ13C and δ15N in the subcohort. HRs and 95% CIs were estimated by using Prentice-weighted Cox regression. Results: Mean (±SD) δ13C and δ15N were −22.8 ± 0.4‰ and 10.2 ± 0.4‰, respectively, and δ13C (r = 0.22) and δ15N (r = 0.20) were positively correlated (P < 0.001) with fish protein intake. Animal protein was not correlated with δ13C but was significantly correlated with δ15N (dairy protein: r = 0.11; meat protein: r = 0.09; terrestrial animal protein: r = 0.12, P ≤ 0.013). δ13C was inversely associated with diabetes in adjusted analyses (HR per tertile: 0.74; 95% CI: 0.65, 0.83; P-trend < 0.001], whereas δ15N was positively associated (HR: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.38; P-trend = 0.001). Conclusions: The isotope ratios δ13C and δ15N may both serve as potential biomarkers of fish protein intake, whereas only δ15N may reflect broader animal-source protein intake in a European population. The inverse association of δ13C but a positive association of δ15N with incident diabetes should be interpreted in the light of knowledge of dietary intake and may assist in identifying dietary components that are associated with health risks and benefits.

The effect of flavanol-rich cocoa on cerebral perfusion in healthy older adults during conscious resting state: a placebo controlled, crossover, acute trial

Rationale: There has recently been increasing interest in the potential of flavanols, plant derived compounds found in foods such as fruit and vegetables, to ameliorate age-related cognitive decline. Research suggests that cocoa flavanols improve memory and learning, possibly as a result of their anti-inflammatory and neuroprotective effects. These effects may be mediated by increased cerebral blood flow (CBF), thus stimulating neuronal function. Objectives: The present study employed arterial spin labelling (ASL) functional magnetic resonance imaging (FMRI) to explore the effect of a single acute dose of cocoa flavanols on regional CBF. Methods: CBF was measured pre and post consumption of low (23mg) or high (494mg) 330ml equicaloric flavanol drinks matched for caffeine, theobromine, taste and appearance according to a randomised counterbalanced crossover double-blind design in eight males and ten females, aged 50-65 years. Changes in perfusion from pre to post consumption were calculated as a function of each drink. Results: Significant increases in regional perfusion across the brain were observed following consumption of the high flavanol drink relative to the low flavanol drink, particularly in the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and the central opercular cortex of the parietal lobe. Conclusions: Consumption of cocoa flavanol improves regional cerebral perfusion in older adults. This provides evidence for a possible acute mechanism by which cocoa flavanols are associated with benefits for cognitive performance.

Serum oxytocin concentrations in elective caesarean delivery: a randomized comparison of three infusion regimens

Background: The aim of this study was to determine serum oxytocin concentrations following different regimens of prophylactic oxytocin administration in women undergoing elective caesarean delivery. Methods: Thirty healthy pregnant patients were randomized, after clamping of the umbilical cord, to receive intravenous oxytocin in one of the following groups: G1 (n = 9), 10 IU of oxytocin infused over 30 min (0.33 IU/min); G2 (n = 11), 10 IU of oxytocin infused over 3 min and 45 s (2.67 IU/min); and G3 (n = 10), 80 IU of oxytocin infused over 30 min (2.67 IU/min). Both patient and surgeon were blinded to allocation. Uterine tone was assessed by surgical palpation. Serum oxytocin concentration was determined by enzyme immunoassay before anaesthesia (T0) and at 5 (T5), 30 (T30) and 60 (T60) min after the start of oxytocin infusion. Results: Serum oxytocin concentrations (mean standard error, ng/mL) were not significantly different in the groups at T0 (0.06 +/- 0.02, 0.04 +/- 0.02 and 0.07 +/- 0.04, respectively, P = 0.76), and T60 (0.65 +/- 0.26, 0.36 +/- 0.26 and 0.69 +/- 0.26, respectively, P = 0.58). G3 showed higher concentrations than G1 at 15 (3.65 +/- 0.74 versus 0.71 +/- 0.27, P = 0.01) and at T30 (6.19 +/- 1.19 versus 1.17 +/- 0.37, P < 0.01), and were higher than G2 at T30 (6.19 +/- 1.19 versus 0.41 +/- 0.2, P < 0.01). Haemodynamic data and uterine tone were considered satisfactory and similar in all groups. No additional uterotonic agents were needed. Conclusion: Serum oxytocin measurements made using enzyme immunoassay in healthy pregnant women undergoing elective caesarean delivery showed that administration of 80 IU oxytocin over 30 min resulted in higher serum oxytocin levels after 5 and 30 min than the two other regimens. The concentrations did not differ between groups at 60 min. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Floristic inventory of cerrado at Pedregulho, Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Pedregulho municipality in the far northeastern region of Sao Paulo state has fragments of cerrado vegetation thought to be floristically distinct from other cerrado remmants in the state. In this study, a floristic survey was carried out at Pedregulho, focusing on two geologically distinct regions: Furnas do Bom Jesus State Park and the Estreito district. In each region, 50x50 m plots were set up for a total sample area of 1 hectare, where 65 families and 379 angiosperm species were recorded. Collecting efforts in adjacent areas resulted in a total of 71 families and 443 species. The two study areas had low floristic similarity. Geographic species distribution was analyzed and eight patterns were defined for those species restricted to the Pedregulho region in Sao Paulo.

Strong quenching of chlorophyll fluorescence in the desiccated state in three poikilohydric and homoiochlorophyllous moss species indicates photo-oxidative protection on highly light-exposed rocks of a tropical inselberg

The three poikilophydric and homoiochlorophyllous moss species Campylopus savannarum (C. Muell.) Mitt., Racocarpus fontinaloides (C. Muell.) Par. and Ptychomitrium vaginatum Besch. grow on sun-exposed rocks of a tropical inselberg in Brazil subject to regular drying and wetting cycles. Effective photo-oxidative protection in the light-adapted desiccated state in all three species is achieved by a reduction of ground chlorophyll fluorescence, F, to almost zero. Upon rewatering, the kinetics of the recovery of F in air dry cushions to higher values is very fast in the first 5min, but more than 80min are needed until an equilibrium is reached gradually. The kinetics were not different between the three species. The three moss species, have a distinct niche occupation and form a characteristic zonation around soil vegetation islands on the rock outcrops, where C. savannarum and R. fontinaloides form an inner and outer belt, respectively, around vegetation islands and P vaginatum occurs as small isolated cushions on bare rock. However, they were not distinguished by the reduction of F in the dry state and the rewetting recovery kinetics and only slightly different in their photosynthetic capacity. Stable isotope ratios (delta C-13, delta N-15) indicate that liquid films of water limiting diffusion of CO2 are important in determining carbon acquisition and suggest that limitation of CO2 fixation by water films must be more pronounced over time in P vaginatum than in the latter species. This is determined by both the micro site occupied and the form of the moss cushions. (c) 2007 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Successional stage and geographic features determine floristic similarity among Atlantic Forest remnants, Sao Paulo State, Brazil

Analysis of floristic similarity relationships between plant communities can detect patterns of species occurrence and also explain conditioning factors. Searching for such patterns, floristic similarity relationships among Atlantic Forest sites situated at Ibiuna Plateau, Sao Paulo state, Brazil, were analyzed by multivariate techniques. Twenty one forest fragments and six sites within a continuous Forest Reserve were included in the analyses. Floristic composition and structure of the tree community (minimum dbh 5 cm) were assessed using the point centered quarter method. Two methods were used for multivariate analysis: Detrended Correspondence Analysis (DCA) and Two-Way Indicator Species Analysis (TWINSPAN). Similarity relationships among the study areas were based on the successional stage of the community and also on spatial proximity. The more similar the successional stage of the communities, the higher the floristic similarity between them, especially if the communities are geographically close. A floristic gradient from north to south was observed, suggesting a transition between biomes, since northern indicator species are mostly heliophytes, occurring also in cerrado vegetation and seasonal semideciduous forest, while southern indicator species are mostly typical ombrophilous and climax species from typical dense evergreen Atlantic Forest.

Nectandra Rol. ex Rottb. (Lauraceae) in Mato Grosso do Sul State, Brazil

(Nectandra Rol. ex Rottb. (Lauraceae) in Mato Grosso do Sul State, Brazil). This paper presents the taxonomic study of the species of Nectandra from Mato Grosso do Sul. Eight species of Nectandra were identified through the morphological analyses of specimens collected in different regions from the State: N. amazonum Nees, N. cissiflora Nees, N. cuspidata Nees, N. falcifolia (Nees) J.A. Castigl. ex Mart. Crov. & Piccinini, N. gardneri Meisn., N. hihua (Ruiz & Pav.) Rohwer, N. megapotamica (Spreng.) Mez and N. psammophila Nees. Identification key, morphological descriptions, geographic distribution, habitat, fenologic aspect, taxonomic comments, and illustrations are presented.

A new species of Vriesea Lindl. (Bromeliaceae, Tillandsioideae) from Serra da Canastra, Minas Gerais State, Brazil

A new species of Vriesea Lindl. belonging to section Xiphion (E. Morren) E. Morren ex Mez. - V. sanfranciscana Versieux & Wand.- is described and illustrated. The species is only known to occur in the Serra da Canastra National Park, located in the southwestern Minas Gerais, Brazil, and is morphologically related to V. atropurpurea Silveira from serra do Cipo, Espinhaco range.

Effect of plant neutrophil elastase inhibitor on leucocyte migration, adhesion and cytokine release in inflammatory conditions

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE The serine and cysteine peptidase inhibitor, BbCI, isolated from Bauhinia bauhinioides seeds, is similar to the classical plant Kunitz inhibitor, STI, but lacks disulphide bridges and methionine residues. BbCI blocks activity of the serine peptidases, elastase (K(iapp) 5.3 nM) and cathepsin G (K(iapp) 160.0 nM), and the cysteine peptidase cathepsin L (K(iapp) 0.2 nM). These three peptidases play important roles in the inflammatory process. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH We measured the effects of BbCI on paw oedema and on leucocyte accumulation in pleurisy, both induced by carrageenan. Leucocyte-endothelial cell interactions in scrotal microvasculature in Wistar rats were investigated using intravital microscopy. Cytokine levels in pleural exudate and serum were measured by ELISA. KEY RESULTS Pretreatment of the animals with BbCI (2.5 mg.kg(-1)), 30 min before carrageenan-induced inflammation, effectively reduced paw oedema and bradykinin release, neutrophil migration into the pleural cavity. The number of rolling, adhered and migrated leucocytes at the spermatic fascia microcirculation following carrageenan injection into the scrotum were reduced by BbCI pretreatment. Furthermore, levels of the rat chemokine cytokine-induced neutrophil chemo-attractant-1 were significantly reduced in both pleural exudates and serum from animals pretreated with BbCI. Levels of interleukin-1 beta or tumour necrosis factor-alpha, however, did not change. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS Taken together, our data suggest that the anti-inflammatory properties of BbCI may be useful in investigations of other pathological processes in which human neutrophil elastase, cathepsin G and cathepsin L play important roles.

Seroprevalence of anti-Leishmania spp. antibodies in rural dogs from the city of Monte Negro, State of Rondonia, Brazil

The present study assessed the prevalence of anti-Leishmania spp antibodies in dogs from the city of Monte Negro, State of Rondonia, Brazil ELISA (NE >= 3) and IFAT (>= 1 40) were used to evaluate 161 serum samples collected from rural dogs from Monte Negro Forty-five (27 9%) dogs were positive by ELISA tests and five (3 1%) were positive by IFAT The present study showed for the first time the frequency of exposure to Leishmania spp in dogs in the State of Rondonia, Amazon Region

Lower serum IgA levels in horses kept under intensive sanitary management and physical training

Quantity and variety of environmental antigens, age, diet, vaccine protocols, exercising practice and mucosal cytokine microenvironment are factors that influence serum immunoglobulin (Ig) levels. IgA, IgG, IgG(T) and IgM were quantified in 60 horses, which were classified into two groups, `intensive` or `relaxed`, according to sanitary standards of the facilities and physical exercise to which animals were subjected to. The `intensive` group presented lower means for all isotypes, but only IgA presented a significant (P < 0.0064) difference when compared to the `relaxed` group. This suggests that mucosal immunity found in the `intensive` group is lower when compared to the `relaxed` group. Our data suggest that athlete horses may be less poised to mount an effective mucosal immunity response to environmental challenges and should not be considered by the same perspectives as a free-ranging horse.

PLANT LEAF IDENTIFICATION BASED ON VOLUMETRIC FRACTAL DIMENSION

Texture is an important visual attribute used to describe the pixel organization in an image. As well as it being easily identified by humans, its analysis process demands a high level of sophistication and computer complexity. This paper presents a novel approach for texture analysis, based on analyzing the complexity of the surface generated from a texture, in order to describe and characterize it. The proposed method produces a texture signature which is able to efficiently characterize different texture classes. The paper also illustrates a novel method performance on an experiment using texture images of leaves. Leaf identification is a difficult and complex task due to the nature of plants, which presents a huge pattern variation. The high classification rate yielded shows the potential of the method, improving on traditional texture techniques, such as Gabor filters and Fourier analysis.