Dengue and the risk of urban yellow fever reintroduction in São Paulo State, Brazil

OBJECTIVE: To propose a mathematical method for the estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number, R0, of urban yellow fever in a dengue-infested area. METHODS: The method is based on the assumption that, as the same vector (Aedes aegypti) causes both infections, all the quantities related to the mosquito, estimated from the initial phase of dengue epidemic, could be applied to yellow fever dynamics. It is demonstrated that R0 for yellow fever is, on average, 43% lower than that for dengue. This difference is due to the longer dengue viremia and its shorter extrinsic incubation period. RESULTS: In this study the analysis was expanded to the epidemiological situation of dengue in São Paulo in the year 2001. The total number of dengue cases increased from 3,582 in 2000 to 51,348 in 2001. It was then calculated R0 for yellow fever for every city which have shown R0 of dengue greater than 1. It was also estimated the total number of unprotected people living in highly risky areas for urban yellow fever. CONCLUSIONS: Currently there is a great number of non-vaccinated people living in Aedes aegypti infested area in the state of São Paulo.

Difficulties in access and estimates of public beds in intensive care units in the state of Rio de Janeiro

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To estimate the required number of public beds for adults in intensive care units in the state of Rio de Janeiro to meet the existing demand and compare results with recommendations by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. METHODS The study uses a hybrid model combining time series and queuing theory to predict the demand and estimate the number of required beds. Four patient flow scenarios were considered according to bed requests, percentage of abandonments and average length of stay in intensive care unit beds. The results were plotted against Ministry of Health parameters. Data were obtained from the State Regulation Center from 2010 to 2011. RESULTS There were 33,101 medical requests for 268 regulated intensive care unit beds in Rio de Janeiro. With an average length of stay in regulated ICUs of 11.3 days, there would be a need for 595 active beds to ensure system stability and 628 beds to ensure a maximum waiting time of six hours. Deducting current abandonment rates due to clinical improvement (25.8%), these figures fall to 441 and 417. With an average length of stay of 6.5 days, the number of required beds would be 342 and 366, respectively; deducting abandonment rates, 254 and 275. The Brazilian Ministry of Health establishes a parameter of 118 to 353 beds. Although the number of regulated beds is within the recommended range, an increase in beds of 122.0% is required to guarantee system stability and of 134.0% for a maximum waiting time of six hours. CONCLUSIONS Adequate bed estimation must consider reasons for limited timely access and patient flow management in a scenario that associates prioritization of requests with the lowest average length of stay.

Reliable link quality estimation in low-power wireless networks and its impact on tree-routing

Radio link quality estimation is essential for protocols and mechanisms such as routing, mobility management and localization, particularly for low-power wireless networks such as wireless sensor networks. Commodity Link Quality Estimators (LQEs), e.g. PRR, RNP, ETX, four-bit and RSSI, can only provide a partial characterization of links as they ignore several link properties such as channel quality and stability. In this paper, we propose F-LQE (Fuzzy Link Quality Estimator, a holistic metric that estimates link quality on the basis of four link quality properties—packet delivery, asymmetry, stability, and channel quality—that are expressed and combined using Fuzzy Logic. We demonstrate through an extensive experimental analysis that F-LQE is more reliable than existing estimators (e.g., PRR, WMEWMA, ETX, RNP, and four-bit) as it provides a finer grain link classification. It is also more stable as it has lower coefficient of variation of link estimates. Importantly, we evaluate the impact of F-LQE on the performance of tree routing, specifically the CTP (Collection Tree Protocol). For this purpose, we adapted F-LQE to build a new routing metric for CTP, which we dubbed as F-LQE/RM. Extensive experimental results obtained with state-of-the-art widely used test-beds show that F-LQE/RM improves significantly CTP routing performance over four-bit (the default LQE of CTP) and ETX (another popular LQE). F-LQE/RM improves the end-to-end packet delivery by up to 16%, reduces the number of packet retransmissions by up to 32%, reduces the Hop count by up to 4%, and improves the topology stability by up to 47%.

6D Visual Odometry with Dense Probabilistic Egomotion Estimation

Proceedings of the International Conference on Computer Vision Theory and Applications, 361-365, 2013, Barcelona, Spain

A Clinical Support System Based on Quality of Life Estimation

Quality of life is a concept influenced by social, economic, psychological, spiritual or medical state factors. More specifically, the perceived quality of an individual's daily life is an assessment of their well-being or lack of it. In this context, information technologies may help on the management of services for healthcare of chronic patients such as estimating the patient quality of life and helping the medical staff to take appropriate measures to increase each patient quality of life. This paper describes a Quality of Life estimation system developed using information technologies and the application of data mining algorithms to access the information of clinical data of patients with cancer from Otorhinolaryngology and Head and Neck services of an oncology institution. The system was evaluated with a sample composed of 3013 patients. The results achieved show that there are variables that may be significant predictors for the Quality of Life of the patient: years of smoking (p value 0.049) and size of the tumor (p value < 0.001). In order to assign the variables to the classification of the quality of life the best accuracy was obtained by applying the John Platt's sequential minimal optimization algorithm for training a support vector classifier. In conclusion data mining techniques allow having access to patients additional information helping the physicians to be able to know the quality of life and produce a well-informed clinical decision.

Adaptive modeling and high quality spectral estimation for speech enhancement

In this work an adaptive modeling and spectral estimation scheme based on a dual Discrete Kalman Filtering (DKF) is proposed for speech enhancement. Both speech and noise signals are modeled by an autoregressive structure which provides an underlying time frame dependency and improves time-frequency resolution. The model parameters are arranged to obtain a combined state-space model and are also used to calculate instantaneous power spectral density estimates. The speech enhancement is performed by a dual discrete Kalman filter that simultaneously gives estimates for the models and the signals. This approach is particularly useful as a pre-processing module for parametric based speech recognition systems that rely on spectral time dependent models. The system performance has been evaluated by a set of human listeners and by spectral distances. In both cases the use of this pre-processing module has led to improved results.

Spatial distribution of dengue in the city of Cruzeiro, São Paulo State, Brazil: use of geoprocessing tools

The aim of this article is to identify patterns in spatial distribution of cases of dengue fever that occurred in the municipality of Cruzeiro, State of São Paulo, in 2006. This is an ecological and exploratory study using the tools of spatial analysis in the preparation of thematic maps with data from Sinan-Net. An analysis was made by area, taking as unit the IBGE census, the analysis included four months in 2006 which show the occurrence of the disease in the city. The thematic maps were constructed by TerraView 3.3.1 software, the same software provided the values of the indicators of Global Moran (I M) every month and the Kernel estimation. In the year 2006, 691 cases of dengue were georeferenced (with a rate of 864.2 cases/100,000 inhabitants); the indicators of Moran and p-values obtained were I M = 0.080 (March) p = 0.11; I M = 0.285 (April) p = 0.01; I M = 0.201 (May) p = 0.01 and I M = 0.002 (June) p = 0.57. The first cases were identified in the Northeast and Central areas of Cruzeiro and the recent cases, in the North, Northeast and Central. It was possible to identify census tracts where the epidemic began and how it occurred temporally and spatially in the city.

Software development for estimation of optical clearing agent’s diffusion coefficients in biological tissues

The study of chemical diffusion in biological tissues is a research field of high importance and with application in many clinical, research and industrial areas. The evaluation of diffusion and viscosity properties of chemicals in tissues is necessary to characterize treatments or inclusion of preservatives in tissues or organs for low temperature conservation. Recently, we have demonstrated experimentally that the diffusion properties and dynamic viscosity of sugars and alcohols can be evaluated from optical measurements. Our studies were performed in skeletal muscle, but our results have revealed that the same methodology can be used with other tissues and different chemicals. Considering the significant number of studies that can be made with this method, it becomes necessary to turn data processing and calculation easier. With this objective, we have developed a software application that integrates all processing and calculations, turning the researcher work easier and faster. Using the same experimental data that previously was used to estimate the diffusion and viscosity of glucose in skeletal muscle, we have repeated the calculations with the new application. Comparing between the results obtained with the new application and with previous independent routines we have demonstrated great similarity and consequently validated the application. This new tool is now available to be used in similar research to obtain the diffusion properties of other chemicals in different tissues or organs.

Spatial distribution of leprosy in areas of risk in Vitoria, State of Espirito Santo, Brazil, 2005 to 2009

Introduction Leprosy remains a relevant public health issue in Brazil. The objective of this study was to analyze the spatial distribution of new cases of leprosy and to detect areas with higher risks of disease in the City of Vitória. Methods The study was ecologically based on the spatial distribution of leprosy in the City of Vitória, State of Espírito Santo between 2005 and 2009. The data sources used came from the available records of the State Health Secretary of Espírito Santo. A global and local empirical Bayesian method was used in the spatial analysis to produce a leprosy risk estimation, and the fluctuation effect was smoothed from the detection coefficients. Results The study used thematic maps to illustrate that leprosy is distributed heterogeneously between the neighborhoods and that it is possible to identify areas with high risk of disease. The Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.926 (p = 0.001) for the Local Method indicated highly correlated coefficients. The Moran index was calculated to evaluate correlations between the incidences of adjoining districts. Conclusions We identified the spatial contexts in which there were the highest incidence rates of leprosy in Vitória during the studied period. The results contribute to the knowledge of the spatial distribution of leprosy in the City of Vitória, which can help establish more cost-effective control strategies because they indicate specific regions and priority planning activities that can interfere with the transmission chain.

Malaria in the State of Amazonas: a typical Brazilian tropical disease influenced by waves of economic development

In Brazil, more than 99% of malaria cases are reported in the Amazon, and the State of Amazonas accounts for 40% of this total. However, the accumulated experience and challenges in controlling malaria in this region in recent decades have not been reported. Throughout the first economic cycle during the rubber boom (1879 to 1912), malaria was recorded in the entire state, with the highest incidence in the villages near the Madeira River in the Southern part of the State of Amazonas. In the 1970s, during the second economic development cycle, the economy turned to the industrial sector and demanded a large labor force, resulting in a large migratory influx to the capital Manaus. Over time, a gradual increase in malaria transmission was observed in peri-urban areas. In the 1990s, the stimulation of agroforestry, particularly fish farming, led to the formation of permanent Anopheline breeding sites and increased malaria in settlements. The estimation of environmental impacts and the planning of measures to mitigate them, as seen in the construction of the Coari-Manaus gas pipeline, proved effective. Considering the changes occurred since the Amsterdam Conference in 1992, disease control has been based on early diagnosis and treatment, but the development of parasites that are resistant to major antimalarial drugs in Brazilian Amazon has posed a new challenge. Despite the decreased lethality and the gradual decrease in the number of malaria cases, disease elimination, which should be associated with government programs for economic development in the region, continues to be a challenge.

Estimation of sex and age of "virtual skeletons"--a feasibility study.

This article presents a feasibility study with the objective of investigating the potential of multi-detector computed tomography (MDCT) to estimate the bone age and sex of deceased persons. To obtain virtual skeletons, the bodies of 22 deceased persons with known age at death were scanned by MDCT using a special protocol that consisted of high-resolution imaging of the skull, shoulder girdle (including the upper half of the humeri), the symphysis pubis and the upper halves of the femora. Bone and soft-tissue reconstructions were performed in two and three dimensions. The resulting data were investigated by three anthropologists with different professional experience. Sex was determined by investigating three-dimensional models of the skull and pelvis. As a basic orientation for the age estimation, the complex method according to Nemeskéri and co-workers was applied. The final estimation was effected using additional parameters like the state of dentition, degeneration of the spine, etc., which where chosen individually by the three observers according to their experience. The results of the study show that the estimation of sex and age is possible by the use of MDCT. Virtual skeletons present an ideal collection for anthropological studies, because they are obtained in a non-invasive way and can be investigated ad infinitum.

The nature of the Cr-C bond: direct estimation of aromaticity in Fischer carbenes

Report for the scientific sojourn at the the Philipps-Universität Marburg, Germany, from september to december 2007. For the first, we employed the Energy-Decomposition Analysis (EDA) to investigate aromaticity on Fischer carbenes as it is related through all the reaction mechanisms studied in my PhD thesis. This powerful tool, compared with other well-known aromaticity indices in the literature like NICS, is useful not only for quantitative results but also to measure the degree of conjugation or hyperconjugation in molecules. Our results showed for the annelated benzenoid systems studied here, that electron density is more concentrated on the outer rings than in the central one. The strain-induced bond localization plays a major role as a driven force to keep the more substituted ring as the less aromatic. The discussion presented in this work was contrasted at different levels of theory to calibrate the method and ensure the consistency of our results. We think these conclusions can also be extended to arene chemistry for explaining aromaticity and regioselectivity reactions found in those systems.In the second work, we have employed the Turbomole program package and density-functionals of the best performance in the state of art, to explore reaction mechanisms in the noble gas chemistry. Particularly, we were interested in compounds of the form H--Ng--Ng--F (where Ng (Noble Gas) = Ar, Kr and Xe) and we investigated the relative stability of these species. Our quantum chemical calculations predict that the dixenon compound HXeXeF has an activation barrier for decomposition of 11 kcal/mol which should be large enough to identify the molecule in a low-temperature matrix. The other noble gases present lower activation barriers and therefore are more labile and difficult to be observable systems experimentally.

Parametric estimation of pulse arrival time: a robust approach to pulse wave velocity.

Pulse wave velocity (PWV) is a surrogate of arterial stiffness and represents a non-invasive marker of cardiovascular risk. The non-invasive measurement of PWV requires tracking the arrival time of pressure pulses recorded in vivo, commonly referred to as pulse arrival time (PAT). In the state of the art, PAT is estimated by identifying a characteristic point of the pressure pulse waveform. This paper demonstrates that for ambulatory scenarios, where signal-to-noise ratios are below 10 dB, the performance in terms of repeatability of PAT measurements through characteristic points identification degrades drastically. Hence, we introduce a novel family of PAT estimators based on the parametric modeling of the anacrotic phase of a pressure pulse. In particular, we propose a parametric PAT estimator (TANH) that depicts high correlation with the Complior(R) characteristic point D1 (CC = 0.99), increases noise robustness and reduces by a five-fold factor the number of heartbeats required to obtain reliable PAT measurements.

A public health risk assessment for yellow fever vaccination: a model exemplified by an outbreak in the state of São Paulo, Brazil

We propose a method to analyse the 2009 outbreak in the region of Botucatu in the state of São Paulo (SP), Brazil, when 28 yellow fever (YF) cases were confirmed, including 11 deaths. At the time of the outbreak, the Secretary of Health of the State of São Paulo vaccinated one million people, causing the death of five individuals, an unprecedented number of YF vaccine-induced fatalities. We apply a mathematical model described previously to optimise the proportion of people who should be vaccinated to minimise the total number of deaths. The model was used to calculate the optimum proportion that should be vaccinated in the remaining, vaccine-free regions of SP, considering the risk of vaccine-induced fatalities and the risk of YF outbreaks in these regions.

Estimation of inelastic seismic material properties of a surgical sea-bed from multi-component marine seismic data

To date, state-of-the-art seismic material parameter estimates from multi-component sea-bed seismic data are based on the assumption that the sea-bed consists of a fully elastic half-space. In reality, however, the shallow sea-bed generally consists of soft, unconsolidated sediments that are characterized by strong to very strong seismic attenuation. To explore the potential implications, we apply a state-of-the-art elastic decomposition algorithm to synthetic data for a range of canonical sea-bed models consisting of a viscoelastic half-space of varying attenuation. We find that in the presence of strong seismic attenuation, as quantified by Q-values of 10 or less, significant errors arise in the conventional elastic estimation of seismic properties. Tests on synthetic data indicate that these errors can be largely avoided by accounting for the inherent attenuation of the seafloor when estimating the seismic parameters. This can be achieved by replacing the real-valued expressions for the elastic moduli in the governing equations in the parameter estimation by their complex-valued viscoelastic equivalents. The practical application of our parameter procedure yields realistic estimates of the elastic seismic material properties of the shallow sea-bed, while the corresponding Q-estimates seem to be biased towards too low values, particularly for S-waves. Given that the estimation of inelastic material parameters is notoriously difficult, particularly in the immediate vicinity of the sea-bed, this is expected to be of interest and importance for civil and ocean engineering purposes.