Introduction to Security Onion

Security Onion is a Network Security Manager (NSM) platform that provides multiple Intrusion Detection Systems (IDS) including Host IDS (HIDS) and Network IDS (NIDS). Many types of data can be acquired using Security Onion for analysis. This includes data related to: Host, Network, Session, Asset, Alert and Protocols. Security Onion can be implemented as a standalone deployment with server and sensor included or with a master server and multiple sensors allowing for the system to be scaled as required. Many interfaces and tools are available for management of the system and analysis of data such as Sguil, Snorby, Squert and Enterprise Log Search and Archive (ELSA). These interfaces can be used for analysis of alerts and captured events and then can be further exported for analysis in Network Forensic Analysis Tools (NFAT) such as NetworkMiner, CapME or Xplico. The Security Onion platform also provides various methods of management such as Secure SHell (SSH) for management of server and sensors and Web client remote access. All of this with the ability to replay and analyse example malicious traffic makes the Security Onion a suitable low cost alternative for Network Security Management. In this paper, we have a feature and functionality review for the Security Onion in terms of: types of data, configuration, interface, tools and system management.

Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed timevarying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible realtime term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.

Essays on the term structure of interest rates

This PhD thesis contains three main chapters on macro finance, with a focus on the term structure of interest rates and the applications of state-of-the-art Bayesian econometrics. Except for Chapter 1 and Chapter 5, which set out the general introduction and conclusion, each of the chapters can be considered as a standalone piece of work. In Chapter 2, we model and predict the term structure of US interest rates in a data rich environment. We allow the model dimension and parameters to change over time, accounting for model uncertainty and sudden structural changes. The proposed time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks. DMA performs better since it incorporates more macro-finance information during recessions. The proposed method allows us to estimate plausible real-time term premia, whose countercyclicality weakened during the financial crisis. Chapter 3 investigates global term structure dynamics using a Bayesian hierarchical factor model augmented with macroeconomic fundamentals. More than half of the variation in the bond yields of seven advanced economies is due to global co-movement. Our results suggest that global inflation is the most important factor among global macro fundamentals. Non-fundamental factors are essential in driving global co-movements, and are closely related to sentiment and economic uncertainty. Lastly, we analyze asymmetric spillovers in global bond markets connected to diverging monetary policies. Chapter 4 proposes a no-arbitrage framework of term structure modeling with learning and model uncertainty. The representative agent considers parameter instability, as well as the uncertainty in learning speed and model restrictions. The empirical evidence shows that apart from observational variance, parameter instability is the dominant source of predictive variance when compared with uncertainty in learning speed or model restrictions. When accounting for ambiguity aversion, the out-of-sample predictability of excess returns implied by the learning model can be translated into significant and consistent economic gains over the Expectations Hypothesis benchmark.

THE FEASIBILITY OF USING WEB-BASED TECHNOLOGY FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF DREDGING PROJECTS

The research investigates the feasibility of using web-based project management systems for dredging. To achieve this objective the research assessed both the positive and negative aspects of using web-based technology for the management of dredging projects. Information gained from literature review and prior investigations of dredging projects revealed that project performance, social, political, technical, and business aspects of the organization were important factors in deciding to use web-based systems for the management of dredging projects. These factors were used to develop the research assumptions. An exploratory case study methodology was used to gather the empirical evidence and perform the analysis. An operational prototype of the system was developed to help evaluate developmental and functional requirements, as well as the influence on performance, and on the organization. The evidence gathered from three case study projects, and from a survey of 31 experts, were used to validate the assumptions. Baselines, representing the assumptions, were created as a reference to assess the responses and qualitative measures. The deviation of the responses was used to evaluate for the analysis. Finally, the conclusions were assessed by validating the assumptions with the evidence, derived from the analysis. The research findings are as follows: 1. The system would help improve project performance. 2. Resistance to implementation may be experienced if the system is implemented. Therefore, resistance to implementation needs to be investigated further and more R&D work is needed in order to advance to the final design and implementation. 3. System may be divided into standalone modules in order to simplify the system and facilitate incremental changes. 4. The QA/QC conceptual approach used by this research needs to be redefined during future R&D to satisfy both owners and contractors. Yin (2009) Case Study Research Design and Methods was used to develop the research approach, design, data collection, and analysis. Markus (1983) Resistance Theory was used during the assumptions definition to predict potential problems to the implementation of web-based project management systems for the dredging industry. Keen (1981) incremental changes and facilitative approach tactics were used as basis to classify solutions, and how to overcome resistance to implementation of the web-based project management system. Davis (1989) Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) was used to assess the solutions needed to overcome the resistances to the implementation of web-base management systems for dredging projects.

Data-Driven Wildfire Propagation Modeling with FARSITE-EnKF

The goal of this study is to provide a framework for future researchers to understand and use the FARSITE wildfire-forecasting model with data assimilation. Current wildfire models lack the ability to provide accurate prediction of fire front position faster than real-time. When FARSITE is coupled with a recursive ensemble filter, the data assimilation forecast method improves. The scope includes an explanation of the standalone FARSITE application, technical details on FARSITE integration with a parallel program coupler called OpenPALM, and a model demonstration of the FARSITE-Ensemble Kalman Filter software using the FireFlux I experiment by Craig Clements. The results show that the fire front forecast is improved with the proposed data-driven methodology than with the standalone FARSITE model.

THE DEVELOPMENT EFFECTIVENESS OF INTERNATIONAL WATER AND SANITATION INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS: DEFINING “QUALITY AT ENTRY” OF WORLD BANK PROJECTS.

Over the past 15 years, the number of international development projects aimed at combating global poverty has increased significantly. Within the water and sanitation sector however, and despite heightened global attention and an increase in the number of infrastructure projects, over 800 million people remain without access to appropriate water and sanitation facilities. The majority of donor aid in the water supply and sanitation sector of developing countries is delivered through standalone projects. The quality of projects at the design and preparation stage is a critical determinant in meeting project objectives. The quality of projects at early stage of design, widely referred to as quality at entry (QAE), however remains unquantified and largely subjective. This research argues that water and sanitation infrastructure projects in the developing world tend to be designed in the absence of a specific set of actions that ensure high QAE, and consequently have relatively high rates of failure. This research analyzes 32 cases of water and sanitation infrastructure projects implemented with partial or full World Bank financing globally from 2000 – 2010. The research uses categorical data analysis, regression analysis and descriptive analysis to examine perceived linkages between project QAE and project development outcomes and determines which upstream project design factors are likely to impact the QAE of international development projects in water supply and sanitation. The research proposes a number of specific design stage actions that can be incorporated into the formal review process of water and sanitation projects financed by the World Bank or other international development partners.

Developing an Enhanced Model for Combined Heat and Air Infiltration Energy Simulation

The need for efficient, sustainable, and planned utilization of resources is ever more critical. In the U.S. alone, buildings consume 34.8 Quadrillion (1015) BTU of energy annually at a cost of $1.4 Trillion. Of this energy 58% is utilized for heating and air conditioning. Several building energy analysis tools have been developed to assess energy demands and lifecycle energy costs in buildings. Such analyses are also essential for an efficient HVAC design that overcomes the pitfalls of an under/over-designed system. DOE-2 is among the most widely known full building energy analysis models. It also constitutes the simulation engine of other prominent software such as eQUEST, EnergyPro, PowerDOE. Therefore, it is essential that DOE-2 energy simulations be characterized by high accuracy. Infiltration is an uncontrolled process through which outside air leaks into a building. Studies have estimated infiltration to account for up to 50% of a building’s energy demand. This, considered alongside the annual cost of buildings energy consumption, reveals the costs of air infiltration. It also stresses the need that prominent building energy simulation engines accurately account for its impact. In this research the relative accuracy of current air infiltration calculation methods is evaluated against an intricate Multiphysics Hygrothermal CFD building envelope analysis. The full-scale CFD analysis is based on a meticulous representation of cracking in building envelopes and on real-life conditions. The research found that even the most advanced current infiltration methods, including in DOE-2, are at up to 96.13% relative error versus CFD analysis. An Enhanced Model for Combined Heat and Air Infiltration Simulation was developed. The model resulted in 91.6% improvement in relative accuracy over current models. It reduces error versus CFD analysis to less than 4.5% while requiring less than 1% of the time required for such a complex hygrothermal analysis. The algorithm used in our model was demonstrated to be easy to integrate into DOE-2 and other engines as a standalone method for evaluating infiltration heat loads. This will vastly increase the accuracy of such simulation engines while maintaining their speed and ease of use characteristics that make them very widely used in building design.

Advanced Methodologies in Dynamic Traffic Assignment Modeling of Managed Lanes

Managed lane strategies are innovative road operation schemes for addressing congestion problems. These strategies operate a lane (lanes) adjacent to a freeway that provides congestion-free trips to eligible users, such as transit or toll-payers. To ensure the successful implementation of managed lanes, the demand on these lanes need to be accurately estimated. Among different approaches for predicting this demand, the four-step demand forecasting process is most common. Managed lane demand is usually estimated at the assignment step. Therefore, the key to reliably estimating the demand is the utilization of effective assignment modeling processes. Managed lanes are particularly effective when the road is functioning at near-capacity. Therefore, capturing variations in demand and network attributes and performance is crucial for their modeling, monitoring and operation. As a result, traditional modeling approaches, such as those used in static traffic assignment of demand forecasting models, fail to correctly predict the managed lane demand and the associated system performance. The present study demonstrates the power of the more advanced modeling approach of dynamic traffic assignment (DTA), as well as the shortcomings of conventional approaches, when used to model managed lanes in congested environments. In addition, the study develops processes to support an effective utilization of DTA to model managed lane operations. Static and dynamic traffic assignments consist of demand, network, and route choice model components that need to be calibrated. These components interact with each other, and an iterative method for calibrating them is needed. In this study, an effective standalone framework that combines static demand estimation and dynamic traffic assignment has been developed to replicate real-world traffic conditions. With advances in traffic surveillance technologies collecting, archiving, and analyzing traffic data is becoming more accessible and affordable. The present study shows how data from multiple sources can be integrated, validated, and best used in different stages of modeling and calibration of managed lanes. Extensive and careful processing of demand, traffic, and toll data, as well as proper definition of performance measures, result in a calibrated and stable model, which closely replicates real-world congestion patterns, and can reasonably respond to perturbations in network and demand properties.

Key stakeholder perspectives of drink restrictions in Newcastle, Australia

Background: The problems associated with alcohol consumption in or around licensed premises in the nighttime economy are extensive. One intervention designed to address these problems is drink restrictions. The aim of the current study is to gain different key stakeholder perspectives on drink restriction interventions, including their ability to reduce alcohol-related harms. Method: This study involves an analysis of key stakeholder perspectives on the introduction of drink restrictions. Interviews were conducted with 23 key stakeholders, including venue licencees, security, and police from Newcastle, Australia. Drink restrictions, including limits on shots and umber of drinks, were part of a mandatory set of interventions, which were implemented as a result of legislative change in New South Wales. As such, key stakeholders were able to provide insight into the implementation and practicality of the restrictions. All interviews were analyzed using thematic analysis.Results: Overall, key stakeholders were mixed in their support for drink restrictions, particularly because of the issues associated with customer preloading and practicality of enforcement. Stakeholders remained unconvinced of the impact of the restrictions on reducing harm. Conclusions: Key stakeholders believe that drink restrictions would almost certainly be more likely to reduce alcohol-related harm in the nighttime economy as part of a larger intervention. However, it is unclear how much impact they have as a standalone harm reduction measure.