A framework for electricity price spike analysis with advanced data mining methods

There are many techniques for electricity market price forecasting. However, most of them are designed for expected price analysis rather than price spike forecasting. An effective method of predicting the occurrence of spikes has not yet been observed in the literature so far. In this paper, a data mining based approach is presented to give a reliable forecast of the occurrence of price spikes. Combined with the spike value prediction techniques developed by the same authors, the proposed approach aims at providing a comprehensive tool for price spike forecasting. In this paper, feature selection techniques are firstly described to identify the attributes relevant to the occurrence of spikes. A simple introduction to the classification techniques is given for completeness. Two algorithms: support vector machine and probability classifier are chosen to be the spike occurrence predictors and are discussed in details. Realistic market data are used to test the proposed model with promising results.

Morphological and electrophysiological properties of principal neurons in the rat lateral amygdala in vitro

In this study, we characterize the electrophysiological and morphological properties of spiny principal neurons in the rat lateral amygdala using whole cell recordings in acute brain slices. These neurons exhibited a range of firing properties in response to prolonged current injection. Responses varied from cells that showed full spike frequency adaptation, spiking three to five times, to those that showed no adaptation. The differences in firing patterns were largely explained by the amplitude of the afterhyperpolarization (AHP) that followed spike trains. Cells that showed full spike frequency adaptation had large amplitude slow AHPs, whereas cells that discharged tonically had slow AHPs of much smaller amplitude. During spike trains, all cells showed a similar broadening of their action potentials. Biocytin-filled neurons showed a range of pyramidal-like morphologies, differed in dendritic complexity, had spiny dendrites, and differed in the degree to which they clearly exhibited apical versus basal dendrites. Quantitative analysis revealed no association between cell morphology and firing properties. We conclude that the discharge properties of neurons in the lateral nucleus, in response to somatic current injections, are determined by the differential distribution of ionic conductances rather than through mechanisms that rely on cell morphology.

X-linked myoclonic epilepsy with spasticity and intellectual disability - Mutation in the homeobox gene ARX

Objective: To describe a new syndrome of X-linked myoclonic epilepsy with generalized spasticity and intellectual disability (XMESID) and identify the gene defect underlying this disorder. Methods: The authors studied a family in which six boys over two generations had intractable seizures using a validated seizure questionnaire, clinical examination, and EEG studies. Previous records and investigations were obtained. Information on seizure disorders was obtained on 271 members of the extended family. Molecular genetic analysis included linkage studies and mutational analysis using a positional candidate gene approach. Results: All six affected boys had myoclonic seizures and TCS; two had infantile spasms, but only one had hypsarrhythmia. EEG studies show diffuse background slowing with slow generalized spike wave activity. All affected boys had moderate to profound intellectual disability. Hyperreflexia was observed in obligate carrier women. A late-onset progressive spastic ataxia in the matriarch raises the possibility of late clinical manifestations in obligate carriers. The disorder was mapped to Xp11.2-22.2 with a maximum lod score of 1.8. As recently reported, a missense mutation (1058C>T/P353L) was identified within the homeodomain of the novel human Aristaless related homeobox gene (ARX). Conclusions: XMESID is a rare X-linked recessive myoclonic epilepsy with spasticity and intellectual disability in boys. Hyperreflexia is found in carrier women. XMESID is associated with a missense mutation in ARX. This disorder is allelic with X-linked infantile spasms (ISSX; MIM 308350) where polyalanine tract expansions are the commonly observed molecular defect. Mutations of ARX are associated with a wide range of phenotypes; functional studies in the future may lend insights to the neurobiology of myoclonic seizures and infantile spasms.

Neogene and Quaternary rollback evolution of the Tyrrhenian Sea, the Apennines, and the Sicilian Maghrebides

Reconstruction of the evolution of the Tyrrhenian Sea shows that the major stage of rifting associated with the opening of this basin began at similar to10 Ma. It involved two episodes of back arc extension, which were induced by the rollback of a west dipping subducting slab. The first period of extension (10-6 Ma) was prominent in the northern Tyrrhenian Sea and in the western part of the southern Tyrrhenian Sea. The second period of extension, mainly affected the southern Tyrrhenian Sea, began in the latest Messinian (6-5 Ma) and has been accompanied by subduction rollback at rates of 60-100 km Myr(-1). Slab reconstruction, combined with paleomagnetic and paleogeographic constraints, indicates that in the central Apennines, the latest Messinian (6-5 Ma) arrival of a carbonate platform at the subduction zone impeded subduction and initiated a slab tear and major strike-slip faults. These processes resulted in the formation of a narrow subducting slab beneath the Ionian Sea that has undergone faster subduction rollback and induced extreme rates of back arc extension.

The Mesozoic and Cenozoic motion of Adria (central Mediterranean): a review of constraints and limitations

This paper presents kinematic analysis on the motion of Adria, which is the continental mass that bridges Africa and Europe in the central Mediterranean. Palaeomagnetic data show a general coherence between the motion of Adria and Africa since the Late Paleozoic. This mutual motion, for the period from 120 Ma and the present, is verified by comparing inferred palaeolatitudes from relatively stable parts of Adria (Apulia, Gargano, Istria, and the Southern Alps) and the Hyblean Plateau, with latitudinal changes that are calculated from the motion of Africa with respect to hotspots. Additional constraints on the motion of Adria are provided from the Late Paleozoic-Early Mesozoic passive margin of Adria in the Ionian Sea. The seismic structure of the floor of the Ionian Sea resembles the structure of the oceanic crust in marginal back-arc basins, suggesting that it formed as a small ocean basin. Furthermore, the Ionian lithosphere in the Calabrian arc has been subjected to rapid rollback, which commonly occurs only when the subducting slab is made of oceanic lithosphere. This oceanic domain marks the Pennian-Triassic to Jurassic plate boundary between Adria and Africa, suggesting that a small amount of independent motion between Adria and Africa took place at that time. Since the Jurassic, Adria and Africa have shared a relatively coherent motion path. (C) 2004 Lavoisier SAS. All rights reserved.

Firing properties and connectivity of neurons in the rat lateral central nucleus of the amygdala

Using whole cell recordings from acute slices of the rat amygdala, we have examined the physiological properties of and synaptic connectivity to neurons in the lateral sector of the central amygdala (CeA). Based on their response to depolarizing current injections, CeA neurons could be divided into three types. Adapting neurons fired action potentials at the start of the current injections at high frequency and then showed complete spike-frequency adaptation with only six to seven action potentials evoked with suprathreshold current injections. Late-firing neurons fired action potentials with a prolonged delay at threshold but then discharged continuously with larger current injections. Repetitive firers discharged at the start of the current injection at threshold and then discharged continuously with larger current injections. All three cells showed prolonged afterhyperpolarizations (AHPs) that followed trains of action potentials. The AHP was longer lasting with a larger slow component in adapting neurons. The AHP in all cell types contained a fast component that was inhibited by the SK channel blocker UCL1848. The slow component, not blocked by UCL1848, was blocked by isoprenaline and was significantly larger in adapting neurons. Blockade of SK channels increased the discharge frequency in late firers and regular-spiking neurons but had no effect on adapting neurons. Blockade of the slow AHP with isoprenaline had no effect on any cell type. All cells received a mixed glutamatergic and GABAergic input from a medial pathway. Electrical stimulation of the lateral (LA) and basolateral (BLA)nuclei evoked a large monosynaptic glutamatergic response followed by a disynaptic inhibitory postsynaptic potential. Activation of neurons in the LA and BLA by puffer application of glutamate evoked a small monosynaptic response in 13 of 55 CeA neurons. Local application of glutamate to the CeL evoked a GABAergic response in all cells. These results show that at least three types of neurons are present in the CeA that can be distinguished on their firing properties. The firing frequency of two of these cell types is determined by activation of SK channels. Cells receive a small input from the LA and BLA but may receive inputs that course through these nuclei en route to the CeA.

A Comparison of Bayesian and Sampling Theory Inferences in a Probit Model

HE PROBIT MODEL IS A POPULAR DEVICE for explaining binary choice decisions in econometrics. It has been used to describe choices such as labor force participation, travel mode, home ownership, and type of education. These and many more examples can be found in papers by Amemiya (1981) and Maddala (1983). Given the contribution of economics towards explaining such choices, and given the nature of data that are collected, prior information on the relationship between a choice probability and several explanatory variables frequently exists. Bayesian inference is a convenient vehicle for including such prior information. Given the increasing popularity of Bayesian inference it is useful to ask whether inferences from a probit model are sensitive to a choice between Bayesian and sampling theory techniques. Of interest is the sensitivity of inference on coefficients, probabilities, and elasticities. We consider these issues in a model designed to explain choice between fixed and variable interest rate mortgages. Two Bayesian priors are employed: a uniform prior on the coefficients, designed to be noninformative for the coefficients, and an inequality restricted prior on the signs of the coefficients. We often know, a priori, whether increasing the value of a particular explanatory variable will have a positive or negative effect on a choice probability. This knowledge can be captured by using a prior probability density function (pdf) that is truncated to be positive or negative. Thus, three sets of results are compared:those from maximum likelihood (ML) estimation, those from Bayesian estimation with an unrestricted uniform prior on the coefficients, and those from Bayesian estimation with a uniform prior truncated to accommodate inequality restrictions on the coefficients.

Characterization of heat tolerance in wheat cultivars and effects on production components

Abstract: There is a need for heat tolerant wheat cultivars adapted to the expansion of cultivation areas in warmer regions due to the high demand of this cereal for human consumption. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of high temperatures on grain yield and yield components of wheat and characterize heat tolerant wheat genotypes at different development stages. The genotypes were evaluated in the field with and without heat stress. High temperatures reduced the number of spikelets per spike (21%), number of grains per spike (39%), number of grains per spikelet (23%), 1000-grain weight (27%) and grain yield (79%). Cultivars MGS 1 Aliança, Embrapa 42, IAC 24-Tucuruí and IAC 364-Tucuruí III are the most tolerant to heat stress between the stages double ridge and terminal spikelet; MGS 1 Aliança, BRS 264, IAC 24-Tucuruí, IAC 364-Tucuruí III and VI 98053, between meiosis and anthesis; and BRS 254, IAC-24-Tucuruí, IAC-364-Tucuruí III and VI 98053, between anthesis and physiological maturity. High temperatures reduce grain yield and yield components. The number of grains per spike is the most reduced component under heat stress. The genotypes differed in tolerance to heat stress in different developmental stages.

Improving The Robustness Of Interventional 4D Ultrasound Segmentation Through The Use Of Personalized Shape Priors

While fluoroscopy is still the most widely used imaging modality to guide cardiac interventions, the fusion of pre-operative Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) with real-time intra-operative ultrasound (US) is rapidly gaining clinical acceptance as a viable, radiation-free alternative. In order to improve the detection of the left ventricular (LV) surface in 4D ultrasound, we propose to take advantage of the pre-operative MRI scans to extract a realistic geometrical model representing the patients cardiac anatomy. This could serve as prior information in the interventional setting, allowing to increase the accuracy of the anatomy extraction step in US data. We have made use of a real-time 3D segmentation framework used in the recent past to solve the LV segmentation problem in MR and US data independently and we take advantage of this common link to introduce the prior information as a soft penalty term in the ultrasound segmentation algorithm. We tested the proposed algorithm in a clinical dataset of 38 patients undergoing both MR and US scans. The introduction of the personalized shape prior improves the accuracy and robustness of the LV segmentation, as supported by the error reduction when compared to core lab manual segmentation of the same US sequences.

Anti-vibration gloves and the forearm efforts during tools operations

The objective of this paper is to analyze the forearm muscular contraction levels associated to the use of anti-vibration gloves, by comparing the contraction levels with gloves and without gloves. Two different vibration tools were used in a simulated work environment: (1) A compact Duty Multi-Cutter Bosch and (2) and a Percussion Drill with a drill bit Ø20 mm. Standard operations were performed by each subject in the following materials: (1) Performing cross- sectional cuts in 80x40 mm pine section and (2) performing 20 mm diameter holes in a concrete slab 2 x 2 m, 70 mm thick. The forearm contraction level were measured by surface electromyography in four different muscles: Flexor Digitorum Superficialis (FDS), Flexor Carpi Ulnaris (FCU), Extensor Carpi Radialis Longus (ECRL) e Extensor Carpi Ulnaris (ECU). For the flexor muscles (FDS, FCU), an increase tendency in muscular contraction was observed when the operations are performed without gloves (2-5% MVE increase in the FDS and 3-9% MVE increase in the FCU). For the extensor muscles ECU a decrease tendency in muscular contraction was observed when the operations are performed without gloves (1-10% MVE decrease). Any tendency was found in the ECRL muscle. ECU was the muscle with the highest contraction level for 79% and 71% of the operators, during the operations respectively with the multi-cutter (P50= 27-30%MVE) and with the percussion drill (P50=46-55%MVE). As a final conclusion from this study, anti- vibration gloves may increase the forearm fatigue in the posterior region of the forearm (ECU muscle) during operations with the mentioned tools

Feasibility of Focal Transcranial DC Polarization with Simultaneous EEG Recording: Preliminary Assessment in Healthy Subjects and Human Epilepsy

We aimed to investigate the feasibility of an experimental system for simultaneous transcranial DC stimulation(tDCS) and EEG recording in human epilepsy. We report tolerability of this system in a cross-over controlled trial with 15 healthy subjects and preliminary effects of its use, testing repeated tDCS sessions, in two patients with drug-refractory Continuous Spike-Wave Discharges During Slow Sleep (CSWS). Our system combining continuous recording of the EEG with tDCS allows detailed evaluation of the interictal activity during the entire process. Stimulation with 1 mA was well‐tolerated in both healthy volunteers and patients with refractory epilepsy. The large reduction in interictal epileptiform EEG discharges in the two subjects with epilepsy supports further investigation of tDCS using this combined method of stimulation and monitoring in epilepsy. Continuous monitoring of epileptic activity throughout tDCS improves safety and allows detailed evaluation of epileptic activity changes induced by tDCS in patients.

Interictal Spike EEG Source Analysis in Hypothalamic Hamartoma Epilepsy

Objective: The epilepsy associated with the hypothalamic hamartomas constitutes a syndrome with peculiar seizures, usually refractory to medical therapy, mild cognitive delay, behavioural problems and multifocal spike activity in the scalp electroencephalogram (EEG). The cortical origin of spikes has been widely assumed but not specifically demonstrated. Methods: We present results of a source analysis of interictal spikes from 4 patients (age 2–25 years) with epilepsy and hypothalamic hamartoma, using EEG scalp recordings (32 electrodes) and realistic boundary element models constructed from volumetric magnetic resonance imaging (MRIs). Multifocal spike activity was the most common finding, distributed mainly over the frontal and temporal lobes. A spike classification based on scalp topography was done and averaging within each class performed to improve the signal to noise ratio. Single moving dipole models were used, as well as the Rap-MUSIC algorithm. Results: All spikes with good signal to noise ratio were best explained by initial deep sources in the neighbourhood of the hamartoma, with late sources located in the cortex. Not a single patient could have his spike activity explained by a combination of cortical sources. Conclusions: Overall, the results demonstrate a consistent origin of spike activity in the subcortical region in the neighbourhood of the hamartoma, with late spread to cortical areas.

The BOLD Effect of Interictal Spike Activity in Childhood Occipital Lobe Epilepsy

Occipital lobe epilepsy (OLE) presents in childhood with different manifestations, age of onset and EEG features that form distinct syndromes. The ictal clinical symptoms are difficult to correlate with onset in particular areas in the occipital lobes, and the EEG recordings have not been able to overcome this limitation. The mapping of epileptogenic cortical regions in OLE remains therefore an important goal in our understanding of these syndromes.

Dynamics of Epileptic Activity in a Peculiar Case of Childhood Absence Epilepsy and Correlation with Thalamic Levels of GABA

Childhood absence epilepsy (CAE) is a syndrome with well-defined electroclinical features but unknown pathological basis. An increased thalamic tonic GABA inhibition has recently been discovered on animal models (Cope et al., 2009), but its relevance for human CAE is unproven. METHODS: We studied an 11-year-old boy, presenting the typical clinical features of CAE, but spike-wave discharges (SWD) restricted to one hemisphere. RESULTS: High-resolution EEG failed to demonstrate independent contralateral hemisphere epileptic activity. Consistently, simultaneous EEG-fMRI revealed the typical thalamic BOLD activation, associated with caudate and default mode network deactivation, but restricted to the hemisphere with SWD. Cortical BOLD activations were localized on the ipsilateral pars transverse. Magnetic resonance spectroscopy, using MEGA-PRESS, showed that the GABA/creatine ratio was 2.6 times higher in the hemisphere with SWD than in the unaffected one, reflecting a higher GABA concentration. Similar comparisons for the patient's occipital cortex and thalamus of a healthy volunteer yielded asymmetries below 25%. SIGNIFICANCE: In a clinical case of CAE with EEG and fMRI-BOLD manifestations restricted to one hemisphere, we found an associated increase in thalamic GABA concentration consistent with a role for this abnormality in human CAE.

Optimisation and design of post-tensioning anchorage corner blisters in concrete box girder bidges

The design of anchorage blisters of internal continuity post-tensioning tendons of bridges built by the cantilever method, presents some peculiarities, not only because they are intermediate anchorages but also because these anchorages are located in blisters, so the prestressing force has to be transferred from the blister the bottom slab and web of the girder. The high density of steel reinforcement in anchorage blisters is the most common reason for problems with concrete cast in situ, resulting in zones with low concrete compacity, leading to concrete crushing failures under the anchor plates. A solution may involve improving the concrete compression and tensile strength. To meet these requirements a high-performance fibre reinforced self-compacting mix- ture (HPFRC) was used in anchorage corner blisters of post-tensioning tendons, reducing the concrete cross-section and decreasing the reinforcement needed. To assess the ultimate capacity and the adequate serviceability of the local anchorage zone after reducing the minimum concrete cross-section and the confining reinforcement, specified by the anchorage device supplier for the particular tendon, load transfer tests were performed. To investigate the behaviour of anchorage blisters regarding the transmission of stresses to the web and the bottom slab of the girder, and the feasibility of using high performance concrete only in the blister, two half scale models of the inferior corner of a box girder existing bridge were studied: a reference specimen of ordinary reinforced concrete and a HPFRC blister specimen. The design of the reinforcement was based in the tensile forces obtained on strut-and-tie models. An experimental program was carried out to assess the models used in design and to study the feasibility of using high performance concrete only in the blister, either with casting in situ, or with precast solutions. A non-linear finite element analysis of the tested specimens was also performed and the results compared.