Identification of Potential Sources of Airborne Olea Pollen in the Southwest Iberian Peninsula

This study aims to determine the potential origin of Olea pollen recorded in Badajoz in the Southwest of the Iberian Peninsula during 2009–2011. This was achieved using a combination of daily average and diurnal (hourly) airborne Olea pollen counts recorded at Badajoz (south-western Spain) and Évora (south-eastern Portugal), an inventory of olive groves in the studied area and air mass trajectory calculations computed using the HYSPLIT model. Examining olive pollen episodes at Badajoz that had distinctly different diurnal cycles in olive pollen in relation to the mean, allowed us to identify three different scenarios where olive pollen can be transported to the city from either distant or nearby sources during conditions with slow air mass movements. Back trajectory analysis showed that olive pollen can be transported to Badajoz from the West on prevailing winds, either directly or on slow moving air masses, and from high densities of olive groves situated to the Southeast (e.g. Andalucía). Regional scale transport of olive pollen can result in increased nighttime concentrations of this important aeroallergen. This could be particularly important in Mediterranean countries where people can be outdoors during this time due to climate and lifestyle. Such studies that examine sources and the atmospheric transport of pollen are valuable for allergy sufferers and health care professionals because the information can be incorporated into forecasts, the outputs of which are used for avoiding exposure to aeroallergens and planning medication. The results of studies of this nature can also be used for examining gene flow in this important agricultural crop.

Potential Sources of Airborne Alternaria spp. spores in South-west Spain

Fungi belonging to the genus of Alternaria are recognised as being significant plant pathogens, and Alternaria allergens are one of themost important causes of respiratory allergic diseases in Europe. This study aims to provide a detailed and original analysis of Alternaria transport dynamics in Badajoz, SW Spain. This was achieved by examining daily mean and hourly observations of airborne Alternaria spores recorded during days with high airborne concentrations of Alternaria spores (N100 s m−3) from 2009 to 2011, as well as four inventory maps of major Alternaria habitats, the overall synoptic weather situation and analysis of air mass transport using Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model and geographic information systems. Land use calculated within a radius of 100 km from Badajoz shows that crops and grasslands are potentially the most important local sources of airborne Alternaria spores recorded at the site. The results of back trajectory analysis showthat, during the examined four episodes, the two main directions where Alternaria source areas were located were: (1) SW–W; and (2) NW–NE. Regional scale and long distance transport could therefore supplement the airborne catch recorded at Badajoz with Alternaria conidia originating from sources such as crops and orchards situated in other parts of the Iberian Peninsula.

ASSESSING THE PERFORMANCE OF EMERGING MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS IN CANADA

Emerging markets have received wide attention from investors around the globe because of their return potential and risk diversification. This research examines the selection and timing performance of Canadian mutual funds which invest in fixed-income and equity securities in emerging markets. We use (un)conditional two- and five-factor benchmark models that accommodate the dynamics of returns in emerging markets. We also adopt the cross-sectional bootstrap methodology to distinguish between ‘skill’ and ‘luck’ for individual funds. All the tests are conducted using a comprehensive data set of bond and equity emerging funds over the period of 1989-2011. The risk-adjusted measures of performance are estimated using the least squares method with the Newey-West adjustment for standard errors that are robust to conditional heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. The performance statistics of the emerging funds before (after) management-related costs are insignificantly positive (significantly negative). They are sensitive to the chosen benchmark model and conditional information improves selection performance. The timing statistics are largely insignificant throughout the sample period and are not sensitive to the benchmark model. Evidence of timing and selecting abilities is obtained in a small number of funds which is not sensitive to the fees structure. We also find evidence that a majority of individual funds provide zero (very few provide positive) abnormal return before fees and a significantly negative return after fees. At the negative end of the tail of performance distribution, our resampling tests fail to reject the role of bad luck in the poor performance of funds and we conclude that most of them are merely ‘unlucky’.

The Efficient Use of Multiple Sources of a Nonrenewable Resource under Supply Cost Uncertainty

Uncertainties as to future supply costs of nonrenewable natural resources, such as oil and gas, raise the issue of the choice of supply sources. In a perfectly deterministic world, an efficient use of multiple sources of supply requires that any given market exhausts the supply it can draw from a low cost source before moving on to a higher cost one; supply sources should be exploited in strict sequence of increasing marginal cost, with a high cost source being left untouched as long as a less costly source is available. We find that this may not be the efficient thing to do in a stochastic world. We show that there exist conditions under which it can be efficient to use a risky supply source in order to conserve a cheaper non risky source. The benefit of doing this comes from the fact that it leaves open the possibility of using it instead of the risky source in the event the latter’s future cost conditions suddenly deteriorate. There are also conditions under which it will be efficient to use a more costly non risky source while a less costly risky source is still available. The reason is that this conserves the less costly risky source in order to use it in the event of a possible future drop in its cost.

Support and information needs of older and disabled older people in the UK

The aim of this study was to determine the support and information needs of older and disabled older people in the UK. Following an initial literature survey, an examination of data on enquiries made by older people to information providers, and a series of focus groups, a questionnaire was developed for a nationwide survey. Over 1630 questionnaires were completed by disabled older clients of Day Care Centres and less frail older members of social clubs. Findings showed that there is a serious shortfall in the number of older people getting the practical support that they need, and the information that enables access to this support, compared to the number that actually need help. Substantial percentages of the survey respondents experienced difficulty with everyday tasks and with accessing the information they needed. Implications for formal sources of support and information are discussed.

Issues in the assimilation of the sources of a trace gas by inverse modelling

The problem of reconstructing the (otherwise unknown) source and sink field of a tracer in a fluid is studied by developing and testing a simple tracer transport model of a single-level global atmosphere and a dynamic data assimilation system. The source/sink field (taken to be constant over a 10-day assimilation window) and initial tracer field are analysed together by assimilating imperfect tracer observations over the window. Experiments show that useful information about the source/sink field may be determined from relatively few observations when the initial tracer field is known very accurately a-priori, even when a-priori source/sink information is biased (the source/sink a-priori is set to zero). In this case each observation provides information about the source/sink field at positions upstream and the assimilation of many observations together can reasonably determine the location and strength of a test source.

The production and consumption of commercial real estate market forecasts

Whilst the vast majority of the research on property market forecasting has concentrated on statistical methods of forecasting future rents, this report investigates the process of property market forecast production with particular reference to the level and effect of judgemental intervention in this process. Expectations of future investment performance at the levels of individual asset, sector, region, country and asset class are crucial to stock selection and tactical and strategic asset allocation decisions. Given their centrality to investment performance, we focus on the process by which forecasts of rents and yields are generated and expectations formed. A review of the wider literature on forecasting suggests that there are strong grounds to expect that forecast outcomes are not the result of purely mechanical calculations.

Asset allocation, cross-class correlation and the structure of property returns

Practical applications of portfolio optimisation tend to proceed on a “top down” basis where funds are allocated first at asset class level (between, say, bonds, cash, equities and real estate) and then, progressively, at sub-class level (within property to sectors, office, retail, industrial for example). While there are organisational benefits from such an approach, it can potentially lead to sub-optimal allocations when compared to a “global” or “side-by-side” optimisation. This will occur where there are correlations between sub-classes across the asset divide that are masked in aggregation – between, for instance, City offices and the performance of financial services stocks. This paper explores such sub-class linkages using UK monthly stock and property data. Exploratory analysis using clustering procedures and factor analysis suggests that property performance and equity performance are distinctive: there is little persuasive evidence of contemporaneous or lagged sub-class linkages. Formal tests of the equivalence of optimised portfolios using top-down and global approaches failed to demonstrate significant differences, whether or not allocations were constrained. While the results may be a function of measurement of market returns, it is those returns that are used to assess fund performance. Accordingly, the treatment of real estate as a distinct asset class with diversification potential seems justified.

The pricing of property trust IPOs in Australia

Following Brounen and Eichholtz (2002) this paper adds to the international literature investigating the underpricing of REIT initial public offerings (IPOs), with a study into Australian property trusts. This study finds that initial day returns can in part be explained by forecast profit distributions (or dividends) and the market sentiment towards property trusts from the date of the prospectus to the date of listing. There is some support for the “winners curse” explanation of underpricing with evidence that large investor or institutional involvement at the outset of the IPO also has some explanatory power.

B2B electronic markets: a conceptual model for analyzing the sources of business value

This paper describes research supporting the development of a conceptual model for understanding the sources of business value of Business-to-Business (B2B) Electronic Markets. Based on six case studies and an analysis of current literature, Aggregation, Matching, and Integration emerged as the three key sources of business value. The framework provides a structured and systematic approach for understanding various B2B Electronic Market models, and helps develop strategies to leverage these sources of business value.

Management of the market research function in client firms

Companies vary in the way they structure their market research function. This was hypothesized to affect the perceived value of their research. A survey of 241 marketing managers in major Australian firms showed that structure positively affected the perceived value of market research information while bolstering the internal client’s position.

Sources of well-being and commitment of staff in the Australian Disability Employment Services

This study examined the role of working conditions in predicting the psychological health, job satisfaction and organisational commitment of personnel responsible for helping people with disabilities gain employment in the mainstream Australian labour market. The working conditions were assessed using two theories: the Job Strain Model (job demand, social support and job control) and Psychological Contract Theory (unwritten reciprocal obligations between employers and employees). In the case of the Job Strain Model, the generic dimensions had been augmented by industry-specific sources of stress. A cross-sectional survey was undertaken in June and July 2005 with 514 staff returning completed questionnaires (representing a response rate of 30%). Comparisons between respondents and non-respondents revealed that on the basis of age, gender and tenure, the sample was broadly representative of employees working in the Australian disability employment sector at that time. The results of regression analyses indicate that social support was predictive of all of the outcome measures. Job control and the honouring of psychological contracts were both predictive of job satisfaction and commitment, while the more situation-specific stressors - treatment and workload stressors - were inversely related to psychological health (i.e. as concern regarding the treatment and workload stressors increased, psychological health decreased). Collectively, these findings suggest that strategies aimed at combating the negative effects of large-scale organisational change could be enhanced by addressing several variables represented in the models - particularly social support, job control, psychological contracts and sector-specific stressors.

Higher education services exports : sources of growth of Asian students in US and UK

The paper reviews the recent trends and current developments in the global higher education market with a particular focus on growth of Asian students studying in US and UK. Using pool cross section-time series data over the 1985–2003 period, it is found that different factors affect students from different countries differently. This suggests that the marketing strategies of offshore higher education providers need to be tailored to the specific needs of different markets in order to be successful. The emergence of a number of new players in the higher education export market is also rapidly becoming a major threat to the traditional higher education service exporters.

Identifying linkages between generations and the property market : the effect on residential and retail property

In the analysis of property markets, especially the retail and residential sectors, increasing importance is being given to the role of demography. The impact of economic influences such as interest rate movements, inflation and changes in the labour market are well documented and although these variables are clearly important. they do not incorporate the changing characteristics of the local inhabitants who actually generate the demand. However, demography can provide an invaluable insight into retail and residential property trends, especially over the long term, and are assisted by reliable population datasets with a relatively high level of detail. For example, the emergence of the 'baby boom' generation and the trend towards geographical relocation had a substantial effect on demand for retail and housing products, although little consideration has been given to the effect from the subsequent cohorts, namely generations X,Y and Z. This paper examines the role of demography when researching property markets, with the focus placed on demographic shifts. It discusses trends in arange of demographic variables that have been observed in society. In addition, it highlights linkages with property markets, especially residential and retail property, and draws inferences for long term trends.The study concludes that when conducting research into property markets. it is essential to have a thorough understanding of various demographic variables to predict how they affect demand. An appreciation of the drivers behind generations will assist property researchers to identify future needs, and the subsequent effect this will have on community development involving retail and residential property.