Short-term forecasting of power demand in the Nord Pool market

Sähkönkulutuksen lyhyen aikavälin ennustamista on tutkittu jo pitkään. Pohjoismaisien sähkömarkkinoiden vapautuminen on vaikuttanut sähkönkulutuksen ennustamiseen. Aluksi työssä perehdyttiin aiheeseen liittyvään kirjallisuuteen. Sähkönkulutuksen käyttäytymistä tutkittiin eri aikoina. Lämpötila tilastojen käyttökelpoisuutta arvioitiin sähkönkulutusennustetta ajatellen. Kulutus ennusteet tehtiin tunneittain ja ennustejaksona käytettiin yhtä viikkoa. Työssä tutkittiin sähkönkulutuksen- ja lämpötiladatan saatavuutta ja laatua Nord Poolin markkina-alueelta. Syötettävien tietojen ominaisuudet vaikuttavat tunnittaiseen sähkönkulutuksen ennustamiseen. Sähkönkulutuksen ennustamista varten mallinnettiin kaksi lähestymistapaa. Testattavina malleina käytettiin regressiomallia ja autoregressiivistä mallia (autoregressive model, ARX). Mallien parametrit estimoitiin pienimmän neliösumman menetelmällä. Tulokset osoittavat että kulutus- ja lämpötiladata on tarkastettava jälkikäteen koska reaaliaikaisen syötetietojen laatu on huonoa. Lämpötila vaikuttaa kulutukseen talvella, mutta se voidaan jättää huomiotta kesäkaudella. Regressiomalli on vakaampi kuin ARX malli. Regressiomallin virhetermi voidaan mallintaa aikasarjamallia hyväksikäyttäen.

Fruits of Butia capitata (Mart.) Becc as good sources of β -carotene and provitamina

Butia capitata is a palm tree, widely found in the Brazilian savanna. Their fruits are largely used by local communities to prepare juices, jellies and ice-creams. The main objective of this work was to determine the carotenoids profile of Butia capitata fruits and their provitamin A values. Total carotenoids content ranged from 11.1 to 43.9 μg.g-1; β-carotene was the predominant carotenoid (5.2-22.8 μg.g-1), followed by γ-carotene, phytoene, phytofluene, ζ-carotene, α-cryptoxanthin (or zeinoxanthin) and α-carotene. Provitamin A values varied from 50 to 200 RAE.100g-1. This result suggests that B. capitata pulp may be a good source of β-carotene and provitamin A.

Reply to 'Sources of uncertainties in cod distribution models'

Ingvaldsen et al. comment on our study assessing global fish interchanges between the North Atlantic and Pacific oceans for more than 500 species during the entire 21st century. They propose that discrepancies between our model projections and observed data for cod in the Barents Sea are the result of the choice of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs). We address this assertion here, re-running the cod model with additional observation data from the Barents Sea1, 3, and show that the lack of open-access, archived data for the Barents Sea was the primary cause of local prediction mismatch. This finding recalls the importance of systematic deposit of biodiversity data in global databases

Sources of variability of speech, spatial, and qualities of hearing scale (SSQ) scores in normal-hearing and hearing-impaired populations.

OBJECTIVE: To identify and quantify sources of variability in scores on the speech, spatial, and qualities of hearing scale (SSQ) and its short forms among normal-hearing and hearing-impaired subjects using a French-language version of the SSQ. DESIGN: Multi-regression analyses of SSQ scores were performed using age, gender, years of education, hearing loss, and hearing-loss asymmetry as predictors. Similar analyses were performed for each subscale (Speech, Spatial, and Qualities), for several SSQ short forms, and for differences in subscale scores. STUDY SAMPLE: One hundred normal-hearing subjects (NHS) and 230 hearing-impaired subjects (HIS). RESULTS: Hearing loss in the better ear and hearing-loss asymmetry were the two main predictors of scores on the overall SSQ, the three main subscales, and the SSQ short forms. The greatest difference between the NHS and HIS was observed for the Speech subscale, and the NHS showed scores well below the maximum of 10. An age effect was observed mostly on the Speech subscale items, and the number of years of education had a significant influence on several Spatial and Qualities subscale items. CONCLUSION: Strong similarities between SSQ scores obtained across different populations and languages, and between SSQ and short forms, underline their potential international use.

Barn owl feathers as biomonitors of mercury: sources of variation in sampling procedures.

Given their central role in mercury (Hg) excretion and suitability as reservoirs, bird feathers are useful Hg biomonitors. Nevertheless, the interpretation of Hg concentrations is still questioned as a result of a poor knowledge of feather physiology and mechanisms affecting Hg deposition. Given the constraints of feather availability to ecotoxicological studies, we tested the effect of intra-individual differences in Hg concentrations according to feather type (body vs. flight feathers), position in the wing and size (mass and length) in order to understand how these factors could affect Hg estimates. We measured Hg concentration of 154 feathers from 28 un-moulted barn owls (Tyto alba), collected dead on roadsides. Median Hg concentration was 0.45 (0.076-4.5) mg kg(-1) in body feathers, 0.44 (0.040-4.9) mg kg(-1) in primary and 0.60 (0.042-4.7) mg kg(-1) in secondary feathers, and we found a poor effect of feather type on intra-individual Hg levels. We also found a negative effect of wing feather mass on Hg concentration but not of feather length and of its position in the wing. We hypothesize that differences in feather growth rate may be the main driver of between-feather differences in Hg concentrations, which can have implications in the interpretation of Hg concentrations in feathers. Finally, we recommend that, whenever possible, several feathers from the same individual should be analysed. The five innermost primaries have lowest mean deviations to both between-feather and intra-individual mean Hg concentration and thus should be selected under restrictive sampling scenarios.

Development of power flows around Baltic countries with new grid links

In the Thesis main focus is done on power flow development paths around the Baltic States as well as on market-based requirements for creation of the common Baltic electricity market. Current market regulations between the countries are presented; barriers for creating competitive common Baltic power market and for electricity trading with third countries are clarified; solutions are offered and corresponding road map is developed. Future power development paths around the Baltic States are analysed. For this purpose the 330 kV transmission grid of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania is modelled in a power flow tool. Power flow calculations are carried out for winter and summer peak and off-peak load periods in 2020 with different combinations of interconnections. While carrying out power balance experiments several power flow patterns in the Baltic States are revealed. Conclusions are made about security of supply, grid congestion and transmission capacity availability for different scenarios.

Active sulphide mine tailings impoundments as sources of contaminated drainage: controlling factors, methods of characterisation and geochemical constraints for mitigation

Low quality mine drainage from tailings facilities persists as one of the most significant global environmental concerns related to sulphide mining. Due to the large variation in geological and environmental conditions at mine sites, universal approaches to the management of mine drainage are not always applicable. Instead, site-specific knowledge of the geochemical behaviour of waste materials is required for the design and closure of the facilities. In this thesis, tailings-derived water contamination and factors causing the pollution were investigated in two coeval active sulphide mine sites in Finland: the Hitura Ni mine and the Luikonlahti Cu-Zn-Co-Ni mine and talc processing plant. A hydrogeochemical study was performed to characterise the tailingsderived water pollution at Hitura. Geochemical changes in the Hitura tailings were evaluated with a detailed mineralogical and geochemical investigation (solid-phase speciation, acid mine drainage potential, pore water chemistry) and using a spatial assessment to identify the mechanisms of water contamination. A similar spatial investigation, applying selective extractions, was carried out in the Luikonlahti tailings area for comparative purposes (Hitura low-sulphide tailings vs. Luikonlahti sulphide-rich tailings). At both sites, hydrogeochemistry of tailings seepage waters was further characterised to examine the net results of the processes observed within the impoundments and to identify constraints for water treatment. At Luikonlahti, annual and seasonal variation in effluent quality was evaluated based on a four-year monitoring period. Observations pertinent to future assessment and mine drainage prevention from existing and future tailings facilities were presented based on the results. A combination of hydrogeochemical approaches provided a means to delineate the tailings-derived neutral mine drainage at Hitura. Tailings effluents with elevated Ni, SO₄ ^2- and Fe content had dispersed to the surrounding aquifer through a levelled-out esker and underneath the seepage collection ditches. In future mines, this could be avoided with additional basal liners in tailings impoundments where the permeability of the underlying Quaternary deposits is inadequate, and with sufficiently deep ditches. Based on the studies, extensive sulphide oxidation with subsequent metal release may already initiate during active tailings disposal. The intensity and onset of oxidation depended on e.g. the Fe sulphide content of the tailings, water saturation level, and time of exposure of fresh sulphide grains. Continuous disposal decreased sulphide weathering in the surface of low-sulphide tailings, but oxidation initiated if they were left uncovered after disposal ceased. In the sulphide-rich tailings, delayed burial of the unsaturated tailings had resulted in thick oxidized layers, despite the continuous operation. Sulphide weathering and contaminant release occurred also in the border zones. Based on the results, the prevention of sulphide oxidation should already be considered in the planning of tailings disposal, taking into account the border zones. Moreover, even lowsulphide tailings should be covered without delay after active disposal ceases. The quality of tailings effluents showed wide variation within a single impoundment and between the two different types of tailings facilities assessed. The affecting factors included source materials, the intensity of weathering of tailings and embankment materials along the seepage flow path, inputs from the process waters, the water retention time in tailings, and climatic seasonality. In addition, modifications to the tailings impoundment may markedly change the effluent quality. The wide variation in the tailings effluent quality poses challenges for treatment design. The final decision on water management requires quantification of the spatial and seasonal fluctuation at the site, taking into account changes resulting from the eventual closure of the impoundment. Overall, comprehensive hydrogeochemical mapping was deemed essential in the identification of critical contaminants and their sources at mine sites. Mineralogical analysis, selective extractions, and pore water analysis were a good combination of methods for studying the weathering of tailings and in evaluating metal mobility from the facilities. Selective extractions with visual observations and pH measurements of tailings solids were, nevertheless, adequate in describing the spatial distribution of sulphide oxidation in tailings impoundments. Seepage water chemistry provided additional data on geochemical processes in tailings and was necessary for defining constraints for water treatment.

Plant sources of amazon rosewood oil

The aim of this study is to reevaluate the plant sources of the Amazon rosewood oil which have been named Aniba rosaeodora Ducke and Aniba duckei Kosterm. There is some disagreement on the exact botanical status of these species. Some Lauraceae specialists analyzing available material from both species concluded that there is no basis for regarding them as different. Based on our results we are confirming that the chemical composition of both species is quite different from that previously reported. So we are suggesting to bring back the previous botanical rosewood status as proposed by Adolph Ducke.

Chemical composition and antibacterial activity of essential oils from verbenaceae species: alternative sources of (E)-caryophyllene and germacrene-D

Volatile oils from the leaves of Verbenaceae species Aloysia virgata, Lantana camara, Lantana trifolia, Lantana montevidensis, Lippia brasiliensis and Lippia sericea were investigated for its chemical composition and antibacterial activity. The volatile oils were characterized by a high content of sesquiterpenes of which (E)-caryophyllene (10-35%), germacrene-D (5-46%) and bicyclogermacrene (7-17%) were the major components for all studied species. For the flowers, a higher concentration of monoterpenes was observed for the species L. camara, L. trifolia and L. brasiliensis. These compounds probably act as attractive to specific pollinators. The volatile oils from A. virgata was the most active, exhibiting moderate antimicrobial activity against the bacteria Staphylococcus aureus, Bacillus cereus and Escherichia coli.

Identification of sources of resistance in sorghum to Peronosclerospora sorghi

The main objective of this work was to identify sources of resistance in sorghum (Sorghum bicolor) to Peronosclerospora sorghi, the causal agent of downy mildew, through the evaluation of 42 sorghum genotypes under natural infection in the field. Genotypes were planted in single row plots between two rows of the susceptible line SC283, planted 30 days before, to act as spreader rows, in two separate nurseries. The experimental design was a completely randomized block design with three replications. Sorghum genotypes CMSXS156, CMSXS157, CMSXS243, TxARG-1, 8902, 9902054, 9910032, 9910296, Tx430, QL-3, SC170-6-17, CMSXS762 and BR304 were classified as highly resistant in both nurseries. Among these, SC170-6-17 and 9910296 showed 0% systemic infection. Results indicated the possible occurrence of different pathotypes of P. sorghi in the two nurseries.

Distributed ControlArchitecture of Power Electronics Building-Block-Based Frequency Converters

The increasing power demand and emerging applications drive the design of electrical power converters into modularization. Despite the wide use of modularized power stage structures, the control schemes that are used are often traditional, in other words, centralized. The flexibility and re-usability of these controllers are typically poor. With a dedicated distributed control scheme, the flexibility and re-usability of the system parts, building blocks, can be increased. Only a few distributed control schemes have been introduced for this purpose, but their breakthrough has not yet taken place. A demand for the further development offlexible control schemes for building-block-based applications clearly exists. The control topology, communication, synchronization, and functionality allocationaspects of building-block-based converters are studied in this doctoral thesis. A distributed control scheme that can be easily adapted to building-block-based power converter designs is developed. The example applications are a parallel and series connection of building blocks. The building block that is used in the implementations of both the applications is a commercial off-the-shelf two-level three-phase frequency converter with a custom-designed controller card. The major challenge with the parallel connection of power stages is the synchronization of the building blocks. The effect of synchronization accuracy on the system performance is studied. The functionality allocation and control scheme design are challenging in the seriesconnected multilevel converters, mainly because of the large number of modules. Various multilevel modulation schemes are analyzed with respect to the implementation, and this information is used to develop a flexible control scheme for modular multilevel inverters.

Exploration and Design of Power-Efficient Networked Many-Core Systems

Multiprocessing is a promising solution to meet the requirements of near future applications. To get full benefit from parallel processing, a manycore system needs efficient, on-chip communication architecture. Networkon- Chip (NoC) is a general purpose communication concept that offers highthroughput, reduced power consumption, and keeps complexity in check by a regular composition of basic building blocks. This thesis presents power efficient communication approaches for networked many-core systems. We address a range of issues being important for designing power-efficient manycore systems at two different levels: the network-level and the router-level. From the network-level point of view, exploiting state-of-the-art concepts such as Globally Asynchronous Locally Synchronous (GALS), Voltage/ Frequency Island (VFI), and 3D Networks-on-Chip approaches may be a solution to the excessive power consumption demanded by today’s and future many-core systems. To this end, a low-cost 3D NoC architecture, based on high-speed GALS-based vertical channels, is proposed to mitigate high peak temperatures, power densities, and area footprints of vertical interconnects in 3D ICs. To further exploit the beneficial feature of a negligible inter-layer distance of 3D ICs, we propose a novel hybridization scheme for inter-layer communication. In addition, an efficient adaptive routing algorithm is presented which enables congestion-aware and reliable communication for the hybridized NoC architecture. An integrated monitoring and management platform on top of this architecture is also developed in order to implement more scalable power optimization techniques. From the router-level perspective, four design styles for implementing power-efficient reconfigurable interfaces in VFI-based NoC systems are proposed. To enhance the utilization of virtual channel buffers and to manage their power consumption, a partial virtual channel sharing method for NoC routers is devised and implemented. Extensive experiments with synthetic and real benchmarks show significant power savings and mitigated hotspots with similar performance compared to latest NoC architectures. The thesis concludes that careful codesigned elements from different network levels enable considerable power savings for many-core systems.

On Innovative Search: the use of internal and external sources of innovation among Finnish innovators

This dissertation explores the use of internal and external sources of knowledge in modern innovation processes. It builds on a framework that combines theories such as a behavioural theory of the firm, the evolutionary theory of economic change, and modern approaches to strategic management. It follows the recent increase in innovation research focusing on the firm-level examination of innovative activities instead of traditional industry-level determinants. The innovation process is seen as a problem- and slack- driven search process, which can take several directions in terms of organizational boundaries in the pursuit of new knowledge and other resources. It thus draws on recent models of technological change, according to which firms nowadays should build their innovative activities on both internal and external sources of innovation rather than relying solely on internal resources. Four different research questions are addressed, all of which are empirically investigated via a rich dataset covering Finnish innovators collected by Statistics Finland. Firstly, the study examines how the nature of problems shapes the direction of any search for new knowledge. In general it demonstrates that the nature of the problem does affect the direction of the search, although under resource constraints firms tend to use external rather than internal sources of knowledge. At the same time, it shows that those firms that are constrained in terms of finance seem to search both internally and externally. Secondly, the dissertation investigates the relationships between different kinds of internal and external sources of knowledge in an attempt to find out where firms should direct their search in order to exploit the potential of a distributed innovation process. The concept of complementarities is applied in this context. The third research question concerns how the use of external knowledge sources – openness to external knowledge – influences the financial performance of firms. Given the many advantages of openness presented in the current literature, the focus is on how it shapes profitability. The results reveal a curvilinear relationship between profitability and openness (taking an inverted U-shape), the implication being that it pays to be open up to a certain point, but being too open to external sources may be detrimental to financial performance. Finally, the dissertation addresses some challenges in CISbased innovation research that have received relatively little attention in prior studies. The general aim is to underline the fact that comprehensive understanding of the complex process of technological change requires the constant development of methodological approaches (in terms of data and measures, for example). All the empirical analyses included in the dissertation are based on the Finnish CIS (Finnish Innovation Survey 1998-2000).