Uncertainty analysis of pollutant build-up modelling based on a Bayesian Weighted Least Squares approach

Reliable pollutant build-up prediction plays a critical role in the accuracy of urban stormwater quality modelling outcomes. However, water quality data collection is resource demanding compared to streamflow data monitoring, where a greater quantity of data is generally available. Consequently, available water quality data sets span only relatively short time scales unlike water quantity data. Therefore, the ability to take due consideration of the variability associated with pollutant processes and natural phenomena is constrained. This in turn gives rise to uncertainty in the modelling outcomes as research has shown that pollutant loadings on catchment surfaces and rainfall within an area can vary considerably over space and time scales. Therefore, the assessment of model uncertainty is an essential element of informed decision making in urban stormwater management. This paper presents the application of a range of regression approaches such as ordinary least squares regression, weighted least squares Regression and Bayesian Weighted Least Squares Regression for the estimation of uncertainty associated with pollutant build-up prediction using limited data sets. The study outcomes confirmed that the use of ordinary least squares regression with fixed model inputs and limited observational data may not provide realistic estimates. The stochastic nature of the dependent and independent variables need to be taken into consideration in pollutant build-up prediction. It was found that the use of the Bayesian approach along with the Monte Carlo simulation technique provides a powerful tool, which attempts to make the best use of the available knowledge in the prediction and thereby presents a practical solution to counteract the limitations which are otherwise imposed on water quality modelling.

Assessing eco-environmental performance of agricultural production in OECD countries : combination of soil surface, soil system and farm gate methods of nutrient auditing

Nitrogen balance is increasingly used as an indicator of the environmental performance of agricultural sector in national, international, and global contexts. There are three main methods of accounting the national nitrogen balance: farm gate, soil surface, and soil system. OECD (2008) recently reported the nitrogen and phosphorus balances for member countries for the 1985 - 2004 period using the soil surface method. The farm gate and soil system methods were also used in some international projects. Some studies have provided the comparison among these methods and the conclusion is mixed. The motivation of this present paper was to combine these three methods to provide a more detailed auditing of the nitrogen balance and flows for national agricultural production. In addition, the present paper also provided a new strategy of using reliable international and national data sources to calculate nitrogen balance using the farm gate method. The empirical study focused on the nitrogen balance of OECD countries for the period from 1985 to 2003. The N surplus sent to the total environment of OECD surged dramatically in early 1980s, gradually decreased during 1990s but exhibited an increasing trends in early 2000s. The overall N efficiency however fluctuated without a clear increasing trend. The eco-environmental ranking shows that Australia and Ireland were the worst while Korea and Greece were the best.

Survival, sublethal injury and recovery of environmental Burkholderia pseudomallei in soil subjected to desiccation

Environmental Burkholderia pseudomallei isolated from sandy soil at Castle Hill, Townsville, in the dry tropic region of Queensland, Australia, was inoculated into sterile-soil laboratory microcosms subjected to variable soil moisture. Survival and sublethal injury of the B. pseudomallei strain were monitored by recovery using culture-based methods. Soil extraction buffer yielded higher recoveries as an extraction agent than sterile distilled water. B. pseudomallei was not recoverable when inoculated into desiccated soil but remained recoverable from moist soil subjected to 91 days desiccation and showed a growth response to increased soil moisture over at least 113 days. Results indicate that endemic dry tropic soil may act as a reservoir during the dry season, with an increase in cell number and potential for mobilization from soil into water in the wet season.

Soil-pile interaction in deep layered marine sediment under seismic excitation

Under seismic loads neither the response of the pile nor the response of ground are independent of each other, contrary what is normally assumed. In seismic design of buildings, dynamic response of a structure is determined by assuming a fixed base on sub-grade and neglecting the physical interaction between foundation and soil profile in which it is embedded. However, the seismic response of pile foundations in vibration sensitive soil profiles is significantly affected by the behaviour of supporting soil. This research uses validated Finite Element techniques to simulate the seismic behaviour of pile foundations embedded in multilayered vibration sensitive soils.

Electron microscopy of micron-sized lunar soil

We have performed electron-microscopic analysis on 0.5-1.0µm grains in order to study radiation damage by the solar-wind. We are reporting some interesting results we have found in monomineralic grains from core sample 15010,1130. This is a submature soil which has been studied for rare gas abundance and ferromagnetic resonance by (1) and modal petrology by (2).

ICT to enhance the triangle of life : the soil, the seed, and the life-giver farmer

This paper reports on the outcomes of an ICT enabled social sustainability project “Green Lanka1” trialled in the Wilgamuwa village, which is situated in the Dambulla district of Sri Lanka. The main goals of the project were focused towards the provision of information about market prices, transportation options, agricultural decision support and modern agriculture practices of the farmer communities to improve their livelihood with the effective use of technologies. The project used Web and Mobile (SMS) enabled systems. The Green Lanka project was sponsored by the Information Communication Technology Agency (ICTA) of Sri Lanka under the Institutional Capacity Building Programme (ICBP) grant scheme which was sponsored by the World Bank. Six hundred families in Wilgamuwa village participated in the project activities. The project was designed, executed and studied through an Action Research approach. The lessons learned through the project activities provide an important understanding of the complex interaction between different stakeholders in the process of implementation of ICT enabled solutions within digitally divided societies. The paper analyses the processes used to reduce the resistance to change and improved involvement of farmer communities in ICT enabled projects. It also analyses the interaction between stakeholders involved in design and implementation of the project activities to improve the chances of project success.

Residual Soil Properties of South East Queensland

This project sought to investigate parameters of residual soil materials located in South East Queensland (SEQ), as determined from a large number of historical site investigation records. This was undertaken to quantify material parameter variability and to assess the validity of using commonly adopted correlations to estimate "typical" soil parameters for this region. A dataset of in situ and laboratory derived residual soil parameters was constructed and analysed to identify potential correlations that related either to the entire area considered, or to specific residual soils that were derived from a common parent material. The variability of SEQ soil parameters were generally found to be greater than the results of equivalent studies that analysed transported soil dominant datasets. Noteworthy differences in material properties also became evident when residual soils weathered from different parent materials were considered independently. Large variation between the correlations developed for specific soil types was found, which highligted both heterogeneity of the studied materials and the incompatibility of generic correlations to residual soils present in SEQ. Region and parent material specific correlations that estimate shear strength from in situ penetration tests have been proposed for the various residual soil types considered.

Computer simulation of underground blast response of pile in saturated soil

This paper treats the blast response of a pile foundation in saturated sand using explicit nonlinear finite element analysis, considering complex material behavior of soil and soil–pile interaction. Blast wave propagation in the soil is studied and the horizontal deformation of pile and effective stresses in the pile are presented. Results indicate that the upper part of the pile to be vulnerable and the pile response decays with distance from the explosive. The findings of this research provide valuable information on the effects of underground explosions on pile foundation and will guide future development, validation and application of computer models.

Non-contact ACL injuries : association with clegg soil impact test values for sports fields, soil moisture and prevailing weather

Introduction: There is a recognised relationship between dry weather conditions and increased risk of anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) injury. Previous studies have identified 28 day evaporation as an important weather-based predictor of non-contact ACL injuries in professional Australian Football League matches. The mechanism of non-contact injury to the ACL is believed to increased traction and impact forces between footwear and playing surface. Ground hardness and the amount and quality of grass are factors that would most likely influence this and are inturn, related to the soil moisture content and prevailing weather conditions. This paper explores the relationship between soil moisture content, preceding weather conditions and the Clegg Soil Impact Test (CSIT) which is an internationally recognised standard measure of ground hardness for sports fields. Methodology: The 2.25 kg Clegg Soil Impact Test and a pair of 12 cm soil moisture probes were used to measure ground hardness and percentage moisture content. Five football fields were surveyed at 13 prescribed sites just before seven football matches from October 2008 to January 2009 (an FC Women’s WLeague team). Weather conditions recorded at the nearest weather station were obtained from the Bureau of Meteorology website and total rainfall less evaporation was calculated for 7 and 28 days prior to each match. All non-contact injuries occurring during match play and their location on the field were recorded. Results/conclusions: Ground hardness varied between CSIT 5 and 17 (x10G) (8 is considered a good value for sports fields). Variations within fields were typically greatest in the centre and goal areas. Soil moisture ranged from 3 to 40% with some fields requiring twice the moisture content of others to maintain similar CSIT values. There was a non-linear, negative relationship for ground hardness versus moisture content and a linear relationship with weather (R2, of 0.30 and 0.34, respectively). Three non-contact ACL injuries occurred during the season. Two of these were associated with hard and variable ground conditions.

Spatiotemporal modelling in estimation of nitrous oxide emissions from soil

Nitrous oxide is a major greenhouse gas emission. The aim of this research was to develop and apply statistical models to characterize the complex spatial and temporal variation in nitrous oxide emissions from soils under different land use conditions. This is critical when developing site-specific management plans to reduce nitrous oxide emissions. These studies can improve predictions and increase our understanding of environmental factors that influence nitrous oxide emissions. They also help to identify areas for future research, which can further improve the prediction of nitrous oxide in practice.

Improving the statistical preparation for measuring soil N2O flux by closed chamber

Nitrous oxide emissions from soil are known to be spatially and temporally volatile. Reliable estimation of emissions over a given time and space depends on measuring with sufficient intensity but deciding on the number of measuring stations and the frequency of observation can be vexing. The question of low frequency manual observations providing comparable results to high frequency automated sampling also arises. Data collected from a replicated field experiment was intensively studied with the intention to give some statistically robust guidance on these issues. The experiment had nitrous oxide soil to air flux monitored within 10 m by 2.5 m plots by automated closed chambers under a 3 h average sampling interval and by manual static chambers under a three day average sampling interval over sixty days. Observed trends in flux over time by the static chambers were mostly within the auto chamber bounds of experimental error. Cumulated nitrous oxide emissions as measured by each system were also within error bounds. Under the temporal response pattern in this experiment, no significant loss of information was observed after culling the data to simulate results under various low frequency scenarios. Within the confines of this experiment observations from the manual chambers were not spatially correlated above distances of 1 m. Statistical power was therefore found to improve due to increased replicates per treatment or chambers per replicate. Careful after action review of experimental data can deliver savings for future work.

Visualising experimental flow fields through a stormwater gross pollutant trap

Abstract An experimental dataset representing a typical flow field in a stormwater gross pollutant trap (GPT) was visualised. A technique was developed to apply the image-based flow visualisation (IBFV) algorithm to the raw dataset. Particle image velocimetry (PIV) software was previously used to capture the flow field data by tracking neutrally buoyant particles with a high speed camera. The dataset consisted of scattered 2D point velocity vectors and the IBFV visualisation facilitates flow feature characterisation within the GPT. The flow features played a pivotal role in understanding stormwater pollutant capture and retention behaviour within the GPT. It was found that the IBFV animations revealed otherwise unnoticed flow features and experimental artefacts. For example, a circular tracer marker in the IBFV program visually highlighted streamlines to investigate the possible flow paths of pollutants entering the GPT. The investigated flow paths were compared with the behaviour of pollutants monitored during experiments.

Real - time prediction of rainfall induced instability of residual soil slopes associated with deep cracks

The early warning based on real-time prediction of rain-induced instability of natural residual slopes helps to minimise human casualties due to such slope failures. Slope instability prediction is complicated, as it is influenced by many factors, including soil properties, soil behaviour, slope geometry, and the location and size of deep cracks in the slope. These deep cracks can facilitate rainwater infiltration into the deep soil layers and reduce the unsaturated shear strength of residual soil. Subsequently, it can form a slip surface, triggering a landslide even in partially saturated soil slopes. Although past research has shown the effects of surface-cracks on soil stability, research examining the influence of deep-cracks on soil stability is very limited. This study aimed to develop methodologies for predicting the real-time rain-induced instability of natural residual soil slopes with deep cracks. The results can be used to warn against potential rain-induced slope failures. The literature review conducted on rain induced slope instability of unsaturated residual soil associated with soil crack, reveals that only limited studies have been done in the following areas related to this topic: - Methods for detecting deep cracks in residual soil slopes. - Practical application of unsaturated soil theory in slope stability analysis. - Mechanistic methods for real-time prediction of rain induced residual soil slope instability in critical slopes with deep cracks. Two natural residual soil slopes at Jombok Village, Ngantang City, Indonesia, which are located near a residential area, were investigated to obtain the parameters required for the stability analysis of the slope. A survey first identified all related field geometrical information including slope, roads, rivers, buildings, and boundaries of the slope. Second, the electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) method was used on the slope to identify the location and geometrical characteristics of deep cracks. The two ERT array models employed in this research are: Dipole-dipole and Azimuthal. Next, bore-hole tests were conducted at different locations in the slope to identify soil layers and to collect undisturbed soil samples for laboratory measurement of the soil parameters required for the stability analysis. At the same bore hole locations, Standard Penetration Test (SPT) was undertaken. Undisturbed soil samples taken from the bore-holes were tested in a laboratory to determine the variation of the following soil properties with the depth: - Classification and physical properties such as grain size distribution, atterberg limits, water content, dry density and specific gravity. - Saturated and unsaturated shear strength properties using direct shear apparatus. - Soil water characteristic curves (SWCC) using filter paper method. - Saturated hydraulic conductivity. The following three methods were used to detect and simulate the location and orientation of cracks in the investigated slope: (1) The electrical resistivity distribution of sub-soil obtained from ERT. (2) The profile of classification and physical properties of the soil, based on laboratory testing of soil samples collected from bore-holes and visual observations of the cracks on the slope surface. (3) The results of stress distribution obtained from 2D dynamic analysis of the slope using QUAKE/W software, together with the laboratory measured soil parameters and earthquake records of the area. It was assumed that the deep crack in the slope under investigation was generated by earthquakes. A good agreement was obtained when comparing the location and the orientation of the cracks detected by Method-1 and Method-2. However, the simulated cracks in Method-3 were not in good agreement with the output of Method-1 and Method-2. This may have been due to the material properties used and the assumptions made, for the analysis. From Method-1 and Method-2, it can be concluded that the ERT method can be used to detect the location and orientation of a crack in a soil slope, when the ERT is conducted in very dry or very wet soil conditions. In this study, the cracks detected by the ERT were used for stability analysis of the slope. The stability of the slope was determined using the factor of safety (FOS) of a critical slip surface obtained by SLOPE/W using the limit equilibrium method. Pore-water pressure values for the stability analysis were obtained by coupling the transient seepage analysis of the slope using finite element based software, called SEEP/W. A parametric study conducted on the stability of an investigated slope revealed that the existence of deep cracks and their location in the soil slope are critical for its stability. The following two steps are proposed to predict the rain-induced instability of a residual soil slope with cracks. (a) Step-1: The transient stability analysis of the slope is conducted from the date of the investigation (initial conditions are based on the investigation) to the preferred date (current date), using measured rainfall data. Then, the stability analyses are continued for the next 12 months using the predicted annual rainfall that will be based on the previous five years rainfall data for the area. (b) Step-2: The stability of the slope is calculated in real-time using real-time measured rainfall. In this calculation, rainfall is predicted for the next hour or 24 hours and the stability of the slope is calculated one hour or 24 hours in advance using real time rainfall data. If Step-1 analysis shows critical stability for the forthcoming year, it is recommended that Step-2 be used for more accurate warning against the future failure of the slope. In this research, the results of the application of the Step-1 on an investigated slope (Slope-1) showed that its stability was not approaching a critical value for year 2012 (until 31st December 2012) and therefore, the application of Step-2 was not necessary for the year 2012. A case study (Slope-2) was used to verify the applicability of the complete proposed predictive method. A landslide event at Slope-2 occurred on 31st October 2010. The transient seepage and stability analyses of the slope using data obtained from field tests such as Bore-hole, SPT, ERT and Laboratory tests, were conducted on 12th June 2010 following the Step-1 and found that the slope in critical condition on that current date. It was then showing that the application of the Step-2 could have predicted this failure by giving sufficient warning time.

Atmospheric particles as a pollutant source in the urban water environment in Sri Lanka – current research trends and future directions

Human and ecosystem health impacts imposed by water pollution are a major problem in the urban areas of Sri Lanka. A primary source of pollutants to urban water sources is atmospheric particles. Hence, it is important to develop a detailed understanding of atmospheric particle characteristics, their sources of origin and the transport pathways. Several research studies have been conducted in Sri Lanka on atmospheric pollution and these studies have tended to differ in their scope, study region and the investigated pollutants. The objectives of this paper are: (1) to report the outcomes of a detailed state-of-art literature review of atmospheric pollution related studies in Sri Lanka to understand the current trends and (2) to discuss the future research activities necessary to generate the important knowledge required for the development of effective strategies to control the adverse impacts of atmospheric pollution on urban waterways.

A Bayesian regression approach to assess uncertainty in pollutant wash-off modelling

Due to knowledge gaps in relation to urban stormwater quality processes, an in-depth understanding of model uncertainty can enhance decision making. Uncertainty in stormwater quality models can originate from a range of sources such as the complexity of urban rainfall-runoff-stormwater pollutant processes and the paucity of observed data. Unfortunately, studies relating to epistemic uncertainty, which arises from the simplification of reality are limited and often deemed mostly unquantifiable. This paper presents a statistical modelling framework for ascertaining epistemic uncertainty associated with pollutant wash-off under a regression modelling paradigm using Ordinary Least Squares Regression (OLSR) and Weighted Least Squares Regression (WLSR) methods with a Bayesian/Gibbs sampling statistical approach. The study results confirmed that WLSR assuming probability distributed data provides more realistic uncertainty estimates of the observed and predicted wash-off values compared to OLSR modelling. It was also noted that the Bayesian/Gibbs sampling approach is superior compared to the most commonly adopted classical statistical and deterministic approaches commonly used in water quality modelling. The study outcomes confirmed that the predication error associated with wash-off replication is relatively higher due to limited data availability. The uncertainty analysis also highlighted the variability of the wash-off modelling coefficient k as a function of complex physical processes, which is primarily influenced by surface characteristics and rainfall intensity.