Quantile regression without the curse of unsmoothness

We consider quantile regression models and investigate the induced smoothing method for obtaining the covariance matrix of the regression parameter estimates. We show that the difference between the smoothed and unsmoothed estimating functions in quantile regression is negligible. The detailed and simple computational algorithms for calculating the asymptotic covariance are provided. Intensive simulation studies indicate that the proposed method performs very well. We also illustrate the algorithm by analyzing the rainfall–runoff data from Murray Upland, Australia.

Tax evasion, inequality, and progressive taxes : a political economy perspective

The standard approach to tax compliance applies the economics-of-crime methodology pioneered by Becker (1968): in its first application, due to Allingham and Sandmo (1972) it models the behaviour of agents as a decision involving a choice of the extent of their income to report to tax authorities, given a certain institutional environment, represented by parameters such as the probability of detection and penalties in the event the agent is caught. While this basic framework yields important insights on tax compliance behavior, it has some critical limitations. Specifically, it indicates a level of compliance that is significantly below what is observed in the data. This thesis revisits the original framework with a view towards addressing this issue, and examining the political economy implications of tax evasion for progressivity in the tax structure. The approach followed involves building a macroeconomic, dynamic equilibrium model for the purpose of examining these issues, by using a step-wise model building procedure starting with some very simple variations of the basic Allingham and Sandmo construct, which are eventually integrated to a dynamic general equilibrium overlapping generations framework with heterogeneous agents. One of the variations involves incorporating the Allingham and Sandmo construct into a two-period model of a small open economy of the type originally attributed to Fisher (1930). A further variation of this simple construct involves allowing agents to initially decide whether to evade taxes or not. In the event they decide to evade, the agents then have to decide the extent of income or wealth they wish to under-report. We find that the ‘evade or not’ assumption has strikingly different and more realistic implications for the extent of evasion, and demonstrate that it is a more appropriate modeling strategy in the context of macroeconomic models, which are essentially dynamic in nature, and involve consumption smoothing across time and across various states of nature. Specifically, since deciding to undertake tax evasion impacts on the consumption smoothing ability of the agent by creating two states of nature in which the agent is ‘caught’ or ‘not caught’, there is a possibility that their utility under certainty, when they choose not to evade, is higher than the expected utility obtained when they choose to evade. Furthermore, the simple two-period model incorporating an ‘evade or not’ choice can be used to demonstrate some strikingly different political economy implications relative to its Allingham and Sandmo counterpart. In variations of the two models that allow for voting on the tax parameter, we find that agents typically choose to vote for a high degree of progressivity by choosing the highest available tax rate from the menu of choices available to them. There is, however, a small range of inequality levels for which agents in the ‘evade or not’ model vote for a relatively low value of the tax rate. The final steps in the model building procedure involve grafting the two-period models with a political economy choice into a dynamic overlapping generations setting with more general, non-linear tax schedules and a ‘cost-of evasion’ function that is increasing in the extent of evasion. Results based on numerical simulations of these models show further improvement in the model’s ability to match empirically plausible levels of tax evasion. In addition, the differences between the political economy implications of the ‘evade or not’ version of the model and its Allingham and Sandmo counterpart are now very striking; there is now a large range of values of the inequality parameter for which agents in the ‘evade or not’ model vote for a low degree of progressivity. This is because, in the ‘evade or not’ version of the model, low values of the tax rate encourages a large number of agents to choose the ‘not-evade’ option, so that the redistributive mechanism is more ‘efficient’ relative to the situations in which tax rates are high. Some further implications of the models of this thesis relate to whether variations in the level of inequality, and parameters such as the probability of detection and penalties for tax evasion matter for the political economy results. We find that (i) the political economy outcomes for the tax rate are quite insensitive to changes in inequality, and (ii) the voting outcomes change in non-monotonic ways in response to changes in the probability of detection and penalty rates. Specifically, the model suggests that changes in inequality should not matter, although the political outcome for the tax rate for a given level of inequality is conditional on whether there is a large or small or large extent of evasion in the economy. We conclude that further theoretical research into macroeconomic models of tax evasion is required to identify the structural relationships underpinning the link between inequality and redistribution in the presence of tax evasion. The models of this thesis provide a necessary first step in that direction.

Estimating vulnerable windows of exposure to air pollution during pregnancy

Exposure to air pollution during pregnancy is a potential cause of adverse birth outcomes such as preterm birth and stillbirth. The risk of exposure may be greater during vulnerable windows of the pregnancy which might only be weeks long. We demonstrate a method to find these windows based on smoothing the risk of weekly exposure using conditional autoregression. We use incidence density sampling to match cases with adverse birth outcomes to controls whose gestation lasted at least as long as the case. This matching means that cases and controls are have equal length exposure periods, rather than comparing, for example, cases with short gestations to controls with longer gestations. We demonstrate the ability of the method to find vulnerable windows using two simulation studies. We illustrate the method by examining the association between particulate matter air pollution and stillbirth in Brisbane, Australia.

Transmission system expansion planning considering combined operation of wind farms and energy storage systems

An energy storage system (ESS) can provide ancillary services such as frequency regulation and reserves, as well as smooth the fluctuations of wind power outputs, and hence improve the security and economics of the power system concerned. The combined operation of a wind farm and an ESS has become a widely accepted operating mode. Hence, it appears necessary to consider this operating mode in transmission system expansion planning, and this is an issue to be systematically addressed in this work. Firstly, the relationship between the cost of the NaS based ESS and its discharging cycle life is analyzed. A strategy for the combined operation of a wind farm and an ESS is next presented, so as to have a good compromise between the operating cost of the ESS and the smoothing effect of the fluctuation of wind power outputs. Then, a transmission system expansion planning model is developed with the sum of the transmission investment costs, the investment and operating costs of ESSs and the punishment cost of lost wind energy as the objective function to be minimized. An improved particle swarm optimization algorithm is employed to solve the developed planning model. Finally, the essential features of the developed model and adopted algorithm are demonstrated by 18-bus and 46-bus test systems.

Visual performance with lenses correcting peripheral refractive errors

Purpose To design and manufacture lenses to correct peripheral refraction along the horizontal meridian and to determine whether these resulted in noticeable improvements in visual performance. Method Subjective refraction of a low myope was determined on the basis of best peripheral detection acuity along the horizontal visual field out to ±30° for both horizontal and vertical gratings. Subjective refraction was compared to objective refractions using a COAS-HD aberrometer. Special lenses were made to correct peripheral refraction, based on designs optimized with and without smoothing across a 3 mm diameter square aperture. Grating detection was retested with these lenses. Contrast thresholds of 1.25’ spots were determined across the field for the conditions of best correction, on-axis correction, and the special lenses. Results The participant had high relative peripheral hyperopia, particularly in the temporal visual field (maximum 2.9 D). There were differences > 0.5D between subjective and objective refractions at a few field angles. On-axis correction reduced peripheral detection acuity and increased peripheral contrast threshold in the peripheral visual field, relative to the best correction, by up to 0.4 and 0.5 log units, respectively. The special lenses restored most of the peripheral vision, although not all at angles to ±10°, and with the lens optimized with aperture-smoothing possibly giving better vision than the lens optimized without aperture-smoothing at some angles. Conclusion It is possible to design and manufacture lenses to give near optimum peripheral visual performance to at least ±30° along one visual field meridian. The benefit of such lenses is likely to be manifest only if a subject has a considerable relative peripheral refraction, for example of the order of 2 D.

The bioeconomics of nutritional poverty and child labour

This paper provides a bio-economic foundation of fertility and child labor. Drawing on the clinical and physiological literature, the model highlights the interaction between work efforts of adults and children, their subsistence consumption, and fertility. The subsistence consumption requirements are endogenous to physical efforts. Parents engaged in physically demanding occupations (e.g. non-mechanized agriculture) are likely to suffer from energy deficiency, leading to reduced future work-capacity. Consumption smoothing occurs through bearing a large number of children who provide income support as adults. Although net cost of an additional child is positive, the cost is balanced by the additional income accruing though child employment. In contrast, parents in low-physical effort occupations are less likely to su¤er from nutritional deficiency, and thus tend to have lower fertility and child labor.

Mechanism based emulation of dynamic simulation models : concept and application in hydrology

Many model-based investigation techniques, such as sensitivity analysis, optimization, and statistical inference, require a large number of model evaluations to be performed at different input and/or parameter values. This limits the application of these techniques to models that can be implemented in computationally efficient computer codes. Emulators, by providing efficient interpolation between outputs of deterministic simulation models, can considerably extend the field of applicability of such computationally demanding techniques. So far, the dominant techniques for developing emulators have been priors in the form of Gaussian stochastic processes (GASP) that were conditioned with a design data set of inputs and corresponding model outputs. In the context of dynamic models, this approach has two essential disadvantages: (i) these emulators do not consider our knowledge of the structure of the model, and (ii) they run into numerical difficulties if there are a large number of closely spaced input points as is often the case in the time dimension of dynamic models. To address both of these problems, a new concept of developing emulators for dynamic models is proposed. This concept is based on a prior that combines a simplified linear state space model of the temporal evolution of the dynamic model with Gaussian stochastic processes for the innovation terms as functions of model parameters and/or inputs. These innovation terms are intended to correct the error of the linear model at each output step. Conditioning this prior to the design data set is done by Kalman smoothing. This leads to an efficient emulator that, due to the consideration of our knowledge about dominant mechanisms built into the simulation model, can be expected to outperform purely statistical emulators at least in cases in which the design data set is small. The feasibility and potential difficulties of the proposed approach are demonstrated by the application to a simple hydrological model.

A sub‒domain smoothed Galerkin method for solid mechanics problems

A sub‒domain smoothed Galerkin method is proposed to integrate the advantages of mesh‒free Galerkin method and FEM. Arbitrarily shaped sub‒domains are predefined in problems domain with mesh‒free nodes. In each sub‒domain, based on mesh‒free Galerkin weak formulation, the local discrete equation can be obtained by using the moving Kriging interpolation, which is similar to the discretization of the high‒order finite elements. Strain smoothing technique is subsequently applied to the nodal integration of sub‒domain by dividing the sub‒domain into several smoothing cells. Moreover, condensation of DOF can also be introduced into the local discrete equations to improve the computational efficiency. The global governing equations of present method are obtained on the basis of the scheme of FEM by assembling all local discrete equations of the sub‒domains. The mesh‒free properties of Galerkin method are retained in each sub‒domain. Several 2D elastic problems have been solved on the basis of this newly proposed method to validate its computational performance. These numerical examples proved that the newly proposed sub‒domain smoothed Galerkin method is a robust technique to solve solid mechanics problems based on its characteristics of high computational efficiency, good accuracy, and convergence.

Beyond point forecasting : evaluation of alternative prediction intervals for tourist arrivals

This paper evaluates the performances of prediction intervals generated from alternative time series models, in the context of tourism forecasting. The forecasting methods considered include the autoregressive (AR) model, the AR model using the bias-corrected bootstrap, seasonal ARIMA models, innovations state space models for exponential smoothing, and Harvey’s structural time series models. We use thirteen monthly time series for the number of tourist arrivals to Hong Kong and Australia. The mean coverage rates and widths of the alternative prediction intervals are evaluated in an empirical setting. It is found that all models produce satisfactory prediction intervals, except for the autoregressive model. In particular, those based on the biascorrected bootstrap perform best in general, providing tight intervals with accurate coverage rates, especially when the forecast horizon is long.

A coupled SPH-DEM model for micro-scale structural deformations of plant cells during drying

A single plant cell was modeled with smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) and a discrete element method (DEM) to study the basic micromechanics that govern the cellular structural deformations during drying. This two-dimensional particle-based model consists of two components: a cell fluid model and a cell wall model. The cell fluid was approximated to a highly viscous Newtonian fluid and modeled with SPH. The cell wall was treated as a stiff semi-permeable solid membrane with visco-elastic properties and modeled as a neo-Hookean solid material using a DEM. Compared to existing meshfree particle-based plant cell models, we have specifically introduced cell wall–fluid attraction forces and cell wall bending stiffness effects to address the critical shrinkage characteristics of the plant cells during drying. Also, a moisture domain-based novel approach was used to simulate drying mechanisms within the particle scheme. The model performance was found to be mainly influenced by the particle resolution, initial gap between the outermost fluid particles and wall particles and number of particles in the SPH influence domain. A higher order smoothing kernel was used with adaptive smoothing length to improve the stability and accuracy of the model. Cell deformations at different states of cell dryness were qualitatively and quantitatively compared with microscopic experimental findings on apple cells and a fairly good agreement was observed with some exceptions. The wall–fluid attraction forces and cell wall bending stiffness were found to be significantly improving the model predictions. A detailed sensitivity analysis was also done to further investigate the influence of wall–fluid attraction forces, cell wall bending stiffness, cell wall stiffness and the particle resolution. This novel meshfree based modeling approach is highly applicable for cellular level deformation studies of plant food materials during drying, which characterize large deformations.

A comparison of techniques for the reconstruction of leaf surfaces from scanned data

The foliage of a plant performs vital functions. As such, leaf models are required to be developed for modelling the plant architecture from a set of scattered data captured using a scanning device. The leaf model can be used for purely visual purposes or as part of a further model, such as a fluid movement model or biological process. For these reasons, an accurate mathematical representation of the surface and boundary is required. This paper compares three approaches for fitting a continuously differentiable surface through a set of scanned data points from a leaf surface, with a technique already used for reconstructing leaf surfaces. The techniques which will be considered are discrete smoothing D2-splines [R. Arcangeli, M. C. Lopez de Silanes, and J. J. Torrens, Multidimensional Minimising Splines, Springer, 2004.], the thin plate spline finite element smoother [S. Roberts, M. Hegland, and I. Altas, Approximation of a Thin Plate Spline Smoother using Continuous Piecewise Polynomial Functions, SIAM, 1 (2003), pp. 208--234] and the radial basis function Clough-Tocher method [M. Oqielat, I. Turner, and J. Belward, A hybrid Clough-Tocher method for surface fitting with application to leaf data., Appl. Math. Modelling, 33 (2009), pp. 2582-2595]. Numerical results show that discrete smoothing D2-splines produce reconstructed leaf surfaces which better represent the original physical leaf.

Surface reconstruction of wheat leaf morphology from three-dimensional scanned data

Realistic virtual models of leaf surfaces are important for a number of applications in the plant sciences, such as modelling agrichemical spray droplet movement and spreading on the surface. In this context, the virtual surfaces are required to be sufficiently smooth to facilitate the use of the mathematical equations that govern the motion of the droplet. While an effective approach is to apply discrete smoothing D2-spline algorithms to reconstruct the leaf surfaces from three-dimensional scanned data, difficulties arise when dealing with wheat leaves that tend to twist and bend. To overcome this topological difficulty, we develop a parameterisation technique that rotates and translates the original data, allowing the surface to be fitted using the discrete smoothing D2-spline methods in the new parameter space. Our algorithm uses finite element methods to represent the surface as a linear combination of compactly supported shape functions. Numerical results confirm that the parameterisation, along with the use of discrete smoothing D2-spline techniques, produces realistic virtual representations of wheat leaves.

Bayesian models for spatio-temporal assessment of disease

This thesis has contributed to the advancement of knowledge in disease modelling by addressing interesting and crucial issues relevant to modelling health data over space and time. The research has led to the increased understanding of spatial scales, temporal scales, and spatial smoothing for modelling diseases, in terms of their methodology and applications. This research is of particular significance to researchers seeking to employ statistical modelling techniques over space and time in various disciplines. A broad class of statistical models are employed to assess what impact of spatial and temporal scales have on simulated and real data.

The choice of spatial scales and spatial smoothness priors for various spatial patterns

Given the drawbacks for using geo-political areas in mapping outcomes unrelated to geo-politics, a compromise is to aggregate and analyse data at the grid level. This has the advantage of allowing spatial smoothing and modelling at a biologically or physically relevant scale. This article addresses two consequent issues: the choice of the spatial smoothness prior and the scale of the grid. Firstly, we describe several spatial smoothness priors applicable for grid data and discuss the contexts in which these priors can be employed based on different aims. Two such aims are considered, i.e., to identify regions with clustering and to model spatial dependence in the data. Secondly, the choice of the grid size is shown to depend largely on the spatial patterns. We present a guide on the selection of spatial scales and smoothness priors for various point patterns based on the two aims for spatial smoothing.