Applications of stochastic analysis in finance and statistical inference

First: A continuous-time version of Kyle's model (Kyle 1985), known as the Back's model (Back 1992), of asset pricing with asymmetric information, is studied. A larger class of price processes and of noise traders' processes are studied. The price process, as in Kyle's model, is allowed to depend on the path of the market order. The process of the noise traders' is an inhomogeneous Lévy process. Solutions are found by the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equations. With the insider being risk-neutral, the price pressure is constant, and there is no equilibirium in the presence of jumps. If the insider is risk-averse, there is no equilibirium in the presence of either jumps or drifts. Also, it is analised when the release time is unknown. A general relation is established between the problem of finding an equilibrium and of enlargement of filtrations. Random announcement time is random is also considered. In such a case the market is not fully efficient and there exists equilibrium if the sensitivity of prices with respect to the global demand is time decreasing according with the distribution of the random time. Second: Power variations. it is considered, the asymptotic behavior of the power variation of processes of the form _integral_0^t u(s-)dS(s), where S_ is an alpha-stable process with index of stability 0&alpha&2 and the integral is an Itô integral. Stable convergence of corresponding fluctuations is established. These results provide statistical tools to infer the process u from discrete observations. Third: A bond market is studied where short rates r(t) evolve as an integral of g(t-s)sigma(s) with respect to W(ds), where g and sigma are deterministic and W is the stochastic Wiener measure. Processes of this type are particular cases of ambit processes. These processes are in general not of the semimartingale kind.

Simultaneous EEG-fMRI at ultra-high field: Artifact prevention and safety assessment.

The simultaneous recording of scalp electroencephalography (EEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) can provide unique insights into the dynamics of human brain function, and the increased functional sensitivity offered by ultra-high field fMRI opens exciting perspectives for the future of this multimodal approach. However, simultaneous recordings are susceptible to various types of artifacts, many of which scale with magnetic field strength and can seriously compromise both EEG and fMRI data quality in recordings above 3T. The aim of the present study was to implement and characterize an optimized setup for simultaneous EEG-fMRI in humans at 7T. The effects of EEG cable length and geometry for signal transmission between the cap and amplifiers were assessed in a phantom model, with specific attention to noise contributions from the MR scanner coldheads. Cable shortening (down to 12cm from cap to amplifiers) and bundling effectively reduced environment noise by up to 84% in average power and 91% in inter-channel power variability. Subject safety was assessed and confirmed via numerical simulations of RF power distribution and temperature measurements on a phantom model, building on the limited existing literature at ultra-high field. MRI data degradation effects due to the EEG system were characterized via B0 and B1(+) field mapping on a human volunteer, demonstrating important, although not prohibitive, B1 disruption effects. With the optimized setup, simultaneous EEG-fMRI acquisitions were performed on 5 healthy volunteers undergoing two visual paradigms: an eyes-open/eyes-closed task, and a visual evoked potential (VEP) paradigm using reversing-checkerboard stimulation. EEG data exhibited clear occipital alpha modulation and average VEPs, respectively, with concomitant BOLD signal changes. On a single-trial level, alpha power variations could be observed with relative confidence on all trials; VEP detection was more limited, although statistically significant responses could be detected in more than 50% of trials for every subject. Overall, we conclude that the proposed setup is well suited for simultaneous EEG-fMRI at 7T.

Amplicon DNA melting analysis for the simultaneous detection of Brucella spp and Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex. Potential use in rapid differential diagnosis between extrapulmonary tuberculosis and focal complications of brucellosis.

Some sites of extrapulmonary tuberculosis and focal complications of brucellosis are very difficult to differentiate clinically, radiologically, and even histopathologically. Conventional microbiological methods for the diagnosis of extrapulmonary tuberculosis and complicated brucellosis not only lack adequate sensitivity, they are also time consuming, which could lead to an unfavourable prognosis. The aim of this work was to develop a multiplex real-time PCR assay based on SYBR Green I to simultaneously detect Brucella spp and Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex and evaluate the efficacy of the technique with different candidate genes. The IS711, bcsp31 and omp2a genes were used for the identification of Brucella spp and the IS6110, senX3-regX3 and cfp31 genes were targeted for the detection of the M. tuberculosis complex. As a result of the different combinations of primers, nine different reactions were evaluated. A test was defined as positive only when the gene combinations were capable of co-amplifying both pathogens in a single reaction tube and showed distinguishable melting temperatures for each microorganism. According to the melting analysis, only three combinations of amplicons (senX3-regX3+bcsp31, senX3-regX3+IS711 and IS6110+IS711) were visible. Detection limits of senX3-regX3+bcsp31 and senX3-regX3+IS711 were of 2 and 3 genome equivalents for M. tuberculosis complex and Brucella while for IS6110+IS711 they were of 200 and 300 genome equivalents, respectively. The three assays correctly identified all the samples, showing negative results for the control patients. The presence of multicopy elements and GC content were the components most influencing the efficiency of the test; this should be taken into account when designing a multiplex-based SYBR Green I assay. In conclusion, multiplex real time PCR assays based on the targets senX3-regX3+bcsp31 and senX3-regX3+IS711 using SYBR Green I are highly sensitive and reproducible. This may therefore be a practical approach for the rapid differential diagnosis between extrapulmonary tuberculosis and complicated brucellosis.

Inference about the number of contributors to a DNA mixture: Comparative analyses of a Bayesian network approach and the maximum allele count method.

In the forensic examination of DNA mixtures, the question of how to set the total number of contributors (N) presents a topic of ongoing interest. Part of the discussion gravitates around issues of bias, in particular when assessments of the number of contributors are not made prior to considering the genotypic configuration of potential donors. Further complication may stem from the observation that, in some cases, there may be numbers of contributors that are incompatible with the set of alleles seen in the profile of a mixed crime stain, given the genotype of a potential contributor. In such situations, procedures that take a single and fixed number contributors as their output can lead to inferential impasses. Assessing the number of contributors within a probabilistic framework can help avoiding such complication. Using elements of decision theory, this paper analyses two strategies for inference on the number of contributors. One procedure is deterministic and focuses on the minimum number of contributors required to 'explain' an observed set of alleles. The other procedure is probabilistic using Bayes' theorem and provides a probability distribution for a set of numbers of contributors, based on the set of observed alleles as well as their respective rates of occurrence. The discussion concentrates on mixed stains of varying quality (i.e., different numbers of loci for which genotyping information is available). A so-called qualitative interpretation is pursued since quantitative information such as peak area and height data are not taken into account. The competing procedures are compared using a standard scoring rule that penalizes the degree of divergence between a given agreed value for N, that is the number of contributors, and the actual value taken by N. Using only modest assumptions and a discussion with reference to a casework example, this paper reports on analyses using simulation techniques and graphical models (i.e., Bayesian networks) to point out that setting the number of contributors to a mixed crime stain in probabilistic terms is, for the conditions assumed in this study, preferable to a decision policy that uses categoric assumptions about N.

Comparative clinical study of different multiplex real time PCR strategies for the simultaneous differential diagnosis between extrapulmonary tuberculosis and focal complications of brucellosis

Background: Both brucellosis and tuberculosis are chronic-debilitating systemic granulomatous diseases with a high incidence in many countries in Africa, Central and South America, the Middle East and the Indian subcontinent. Certain focal complications of brucellosis and extrapulmonary tuberculosis are very difficult to differentiate clinically, biologically and radiologically. As the conventional microbiological methods for the diagnosis of the two diseases have many limitations, as well as being time-consuming, multiplex real time PCR (M RT-PCR) could be a promising and practical approach to hasten the differential diagnosis and improve prognosis. Methodology/Principal Findings: We designed a SYBR Green single-tube multiplex real-time PCR protocol targeting bcsp31 and the IS711 sequence detecting all pathogenic species and biovars of Brucella genus, the IS6110 sequence detecting Mycobacterium genus, and the intergenic region senX3-regX3 specifically detecting Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex. The diagnostic yield of the M RT-PCR with the three pairs of resultant amplicons was then analyzed in 91 clinical samples corresponding to 30 patients with focal complications of brucellosis, 24 patients with extrapulmonary tuberculosis, and 36 patients (Control Group) with different infectious, autoimmune or neoplastic diseases. Thirty-five patients had vertebral osteomyelitis, 21 subacute or chronic meningitis or meningoencephalitis, 13 liver or splenic abscess, eight orchiepididymitis, seven subacute or chronic arthritis, and the remaining seven samples were from different locations. Of the three pairs of amplicons (senX3-regX3+ bcsp3, senX3-regX3+ IS711 and IS6110+ IS711) only senX3-regX3+ IS711 was 100% specific for both the Brucella genus and M. tuberculosis complex. For all the clinical samples studied, the overall sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the M RT-PCR assay were 89.1%, 100%, 85.7% and 100%, respectively, with an accuracy of 93.4%, (95% CI, 88.3—96.5%). Conclusions/Significance: In this study, a M RT-PCR strategy with species-specific primers based on senX3-regX3+IS711 sequences proved to be a sensitive and specific test, useful for the highly efficient detection of M. tuberculosis and Brucella spp in very different clinical samples. It thus represents an advance in the differential diagnosis between some forms of extrapulmonary tuberculosis and focal complications of brucellosis.

Automated four-color interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization approach for the simultaneous detection of specific aneuploidies of diagnostic and prognostic significance in high hyperdiploid acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

In high hyperdiploid acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), the concurrence of specific trisomies confers a more favorable outcome than hyperdiploidy alone. Interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) complements conventional cytogenetics (CC) through its sensitivity and ability to detect chromosome aberrations in nondividing cells. To overcome the limits of manual I-FISH, we developed an automated four-color I-FISH approach and assessed its ability to detect concurrent aneuploidies in ALL. I-FISH was performed using centromeric probes for chromosomes 4, 6, 10, and 17. Parameters established for nucleus selection and signal detection were evaluated. Cutoff values were determined. Combinations of aneuploidies were considered relevant when each aneuploidy was individually significant. Results obtained in 10 patient samples were compared with those obtained with CC. Various combinations of aneuploidies were identified. All clones detected by CC were observed also by I-FISH, and I-FISH revealed numerous additional abnormal clones in all patients, ranging from < or =1% to 31.6% of cells analyzed. We conclude that four-color automated I-FISH permits the identification of concurrent aneuploidies of potential prognostic significance. Large numbers of cells can be analyzed rapidly. The large number of nuclei scored revealed a high level of chromosome variability both at diagnosis and relapse, the prognostic significance of which is of considerable clinical interest and merits further evaluation.

Simultaneous co-expression of memory- and effector-related genes by individual human CD8 T cells depends on antigen specificity and differentiation

Purpose/Objective: Phenotypic and functional T cell properties are usually analyzed at the level of defined cell populations. However, large differences between individual T cells may have important functional consequences. To answer this issue, we performed highly sensitive single-cell gene expression profiling, which allows the direct ex vivo characterization of individual virus- and tumor-specific T cells from healthy donors and melanoma patients. Materials and methods: HLA-A*0201-positive patients with stage III/ IV metastatic melanoma were included in a phase I clinical trial (LUD- 00-018). Patients received monthly low-dose of the Melan-AMART- 1 26_35 unmodified natural (EAAGIGILTV) or the analog A27L (ELAGIGILTV) peptides, mixed CPG and IFA. Individual effector memory CD28+ (EM28+) and EM28- tetramer-specific CD8pos T cells were sorted by flow cytometer. Following direct cell lysis and reverse transcription, the resulting cDNA was precipitated and globally amplified. Semi-quantitative PCR was used for gene expression and TCR BV repertoire analyses. Results: We have previously shown that vaccination with the natural Melan-A peptide induced T cells with superior effector functions as compared to the analog peptide optimized for enhanced HLA binding. Here we found that natural peptide vaccination induced EM28+ T cells with frequent co-expression of both memory/homing-associated genes (CD27, IL7R, EOMES, CXCR3 and CCR5) and effector-related genes (IFNG, KLRD1, PRF1 and GZMB), comparable to protective EBV- and CMV-specific T cells. In contrast, memory/homing- and effectorassociated genes were less frequently co-expressed after vaccination with the analog peptide. Conclusions: These findings reveal a previously unknown level of gene expression diversity among vaccine- and virus-specific T cells with the simultaneous co-expression of multiple memory/homing- and effector- related genes by the same cell. Such broad functional gene expression signatures within antigen-specific T cells may be critical for mounting efficient responses to pathogens or tumors. In summary, direct ex vivo high-resolution molecular characterization of individual T cells provides key insights into the processes shaping the functional properties of tumor- and virus-specific T cells.

A new, automated, four-colour interphase FISH approach for the simultaneous detection of specific aneuploidies of diagnostic and prognostic significance in high hyperdiploid ALL

In hyperdiploid acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL), the simultaneous occurrence of specific aneuploidies confers a more favourable outcome than hyperdiploidy alone. Interphase (I) FISH complements conventional cytogenetics (CC) through its sensitivity and ability to detect chromosome aberrations in non-dividing cells. To overcome the limits of manual I-FISH, we developed an automated four-colour I-FISH approach and assessed its ability to detect concurrent aneuploidies in ALL. I-FISH was performed using centromeric probes for chromosomes 4, 6, 10 and 17. Parameters established for automatic nucleus selection and signal detection were evaluated (3 controls). Cut-off values were determined (10 controls, 1000 nuclei/case). Combinations of aneuploidies were considered relevant when each aneuploidy was individually significant. Results obtained in 10 ALL patients (1500 nuclei/patient) were compared with those by CC. Various combinations of aneuploidies were identified. All clones detected by CC were observed by I-FISH. I-FISH revealed numerous additional abnormal clones, ranging between 0.1% and 31.6%, based on the large number of nuclei evaluated. Four-colour automated I-FISH permits the identification of concurrent aneuploidies of prognostic significance in hyperdiploid ALL. Large numbers of cells can be analysed rapidly by this method. Owing to its high sensitivity, the method provides a powerful tool for the detection of small abnormal clones at diagnosis and during follow up. Compared to CC, it generates a more detailed cytogenetic picture, the biological and clinical significance of which merits further evaluation. Once optimised for a given set of probes, the system can be easily adapted for other probe combinations.

Simultaneous Doppelgänger and limb amputation impression in right frontal opercular stroke.

A case is described of a patient who presented almost simultaneously the impression that his left arm was amputated and the feeling of the presence of his invisible Doppelgänger. While these body scheme disorders have both been described after (right) parietal lesions, a right frontal opercular ischaemic stroke was found in the neurological work up. Diffusion tensor imaging showed that the stroke involved the ventral bundle of the superior longitudinal fasciculus that connects the parietal to the frontal lobe. The unusual clinical presentation of this frontal lesion may have been due to a 'diaschisis'-like phenomenon via the superior longitudinal fasciculus.

Simultaneous loss of beta- and gamma-catenin does not perturb hematopoiesis or lymphopoiesis.

Hematopietic stem cells (HSCs) maintain life-long hematopoiesis in the bone marrow via their ability to self-renew and to differentiate into all blood lineages. Although a central role for the canonical wnt signaling pathway has been suggested in HSC self-renewal as well as in the development of B and T cells, conditional deletion of beta-catenin (which is considered to be essential for Wnt signaling) has no effect on hematopoiesis or lymphopoiesis. Here, we address whether this discrepancy can be explained by a redundant and compensatory function of gamma-catenin, a close homolog of beta-catenin. Unexpectedly, we find that combined deficiency of beta- and gamma-catenin in hematopoietic progenitors does not impair their ability to self-renew and to reconstitute all myeloid, erythroid, and lymphoid lineages, even in competitive mixed chimeras and serial transplantations. These results exclude an essential role for canonical Wnt signaling (as mediated by beta- and/or gamma-catenin) during hematopoiesis and lymphopoiesis.

Human synthetic lethal inference as potential anti-cancer target gene detection

Background: Two genes are called synthetic lethal (SL) if mutation of either alone is not lethal, but mutation of both leads to death or a significant decrease in organism's fitness. The detection of SL gene pairs constitutes a promising alternative for anti-cancer therapy. As cancer cells exhibit a large number of mutations, the identification of these mutated genes' SL partners may provide specific anti-cancer drug candidates, with minor perturbations to the healthy cells. Since existent SL data is mainly restricted to yeast screenings, the road towards human SL candidates is limited to inference methods. Results: In the present work, we use phylogenetic analysis and database manipulation (BioGRID for interactions, Ensembl and NCBI for homology, Gene Ontology for GO attributes) in order to reconstruct the phylogenetically-inferred SL gene network for human. In addition, available data on cancer mutated genes (COSMIC and Cancer Gene Census databases) as well as on existent approved drugs (DrugBank database) supports our selection of cancer-therapy candidates.Conclusions: Our work provides a complementary alternative to the current methods for drug discovering and gene target identification in anti-cancer research. Novel SL screening analysis and the use of highly curated databases would contribute to improve the results of this methodology.