Mapping of risk and susceptibility of shallow-landslide in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil

In the city of Sao Paulo, where about 11 million people live, landslides and flooding occur frequently, especially during the summer. These landslides cause the destruction of houses and urban equipment, economic damage, and the loss of lives. The number of areas threatened by landslides has been increasing each year. The objective of this article is to analyze the probability of risk and susceptibility to shallow landslides in the Limoeiro River basin, which is located at the head of the Aricanduva River basin, one of the main hydrographic basins in the city of Sao Paulo. To map areas of risk, we created a cadastral survey form to evaluate landslide risk in the field. Risk was categorized into four levels based on natural and anthropogenic factors: R1 (low risk), R2 (average risk), R3 (high risk), and R4 (very high risk). To analyze susceptibility to shallow landslides, we used the SHALSTAB (Shallow Landsliding Stability) mathematical model and calculated the Distribution Frequency (DF) of the susceptibility classes for the entire basin. Finally, we performed a joint analysis of the average Risk Concentration (RC) and Risk Potential (RP). We mapped 14 risk sectors containing approximately 685 at-risk homes, more than half of which presented a high (R3) or very high (R4) probability of risk to the population. In the susceptibility map, 41% of the area was classified as stable and 20% as unconditionally unstable. Although the latter category accounted a smaller proportion of the total area, it contained a concentration (RC) of 41% of the mapped risk areas with a risk potential (RP) of 12%. We found that the locations of areas predicted to be unstable by the model coincided with the risk areas mapped in the field. This combination of methods can be applied to evaluate the risk of shallow landslides in densely populated areas and can assist public managers in defining areas that are unstable and inappropriate for occupation. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Validation of fingernail fluoride concentration as a predictor of risk for dental fluorosis

The aim of this study was to validate the use of fingernail fluoride concentrations at ages 2-7 years as predictors of the risk for developing dental fluorosis in the permanent dentition. Fifty-six children of both genders (10-15 years of age) had their incisors and premolars examined for dental fluorosis using the Thylstrup-Fejerskov index. Fingernail fluoride concentrations were obtained from previous studies when children were 2-7 years of age. Data were analyzed by unpaired t test, ANOVA, and Fisher's exact test when the fingernail fluoride concentrations were dichotomized (<= 2 or > 2 mu g/g). Children with dental fluorosis had significantly higher fingernail fluoride concentrations than those without the condition, and the concentrations tended to increase with the severity of fluorosis (r(2) = 0.47, p < 0.0001). Using a fingernail fluoride concentration of 2 mu g/g at ages 2-7 years as a threshold, this biomarker had high sensitivity (0.84) and moderate specificity (0.53) as a predictor for dental fluorosis. The high positive predictive value indicates that fingernail fluoride concentrations should be useful in public health research, since it has the potential to identify around 80% of children at risk of developing dental fluorosis. Copyright (C) 2012 S. Karger AG, Basel

Cadmium Uptake by Lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) as Basis for Derivation of Risk Limits in Soils

The availability and uptake of Cd by lettuce (Lactuca sativa L.) in two common tropical soils (before and after liming) were studied in order to derive human health-based risk soil concentration. Cadmium concentrations ranging from 1 to 12 mg kg(-1) were added to samples from a clayey Oxisol and a sandy-loam Ultisol under glasshouse conditions. After incubation, a soil sample was taken from each pot, the concentration of Cd in the soil was determined, lettuce was grown during 36 d, and the edible parts were harvested and analyzed for Cd. A positive linear correlation was observed between total soil Cd and the Cd concentration in lettuce. The amount of Cd absorbed by lettuce grown in the Ultisol was about twice the amount absorbed in the Oxisol. Liming increased the soil pH and slightly reduced Cd availability and uptake. CaCl2 extraction was better than DTPA to reflect differences in binding strength of Cd between limed and unlimed soils. Risk Cd concentrations in the Ultisol were lower than in the Oxisol, reflecting the greater degree of uptake from the Ultisol. The derived risk Cd values were dependent on soil type and the exposure scenario.

Why Are Women With Cervical Cancer Not Being Diagnosed in Preinvasive Phase? An Analysis of Risk Factors Using a Hierarchical Model

Objective: To assess the risk factors for delayed diagnosis of uterine cervical lesions. Materials and Methods: This is a case-control study that recruited 178 women at 2 Brazilian hospitals. The cases (n = 74) were composed of women with a late diagnosis of a lesion in the uterine cervix (invasive carcinoma in any stage). The controls (n = 104) were composed of women with cervical lesions diagnosed early on (low-or high-grade intraepithelial lesions). The analysis was performed by means of logistic regression model using a hierarchical model. The socioeconomic and demographic variables were included at level I (distal). Level II (intermediate) included the personal and family antecedents and knowledge about the Papanicolaou test and human papillomavirus. Level III (proximal) encompassed the variables relating to individuals' care for their own health, gynecologic symptoms, and variables relating to access to the health care system. Results: The risk factors for late diagnosis of uterine cervical lesions were age older than 40 years (odds ratio [OR] = 10.4; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.3-48.4), not knowing the difference between the Papanicolaou test and gynecological pelvic examinations (OR, = 2.5; 95% CI, 1.3-4.9), not thinking that the Papanicolaou test was important (odds ratio [OR], 4.2; 95% CI, 1.3-13.4), and abnormal vaginal bleeding (OR, 15.0; 95% CI, 6.5-35.0). Previous treatment for sexually transmissible disease was a protective factor (OR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.8) for delayed diagnosis. Conclusions: Deficiencies in cervical cancer prevention programs in developing countries are not simply a matter of better provision and coverage of Papanicolaou tests. The misconception about the Papanicolaou test is a serious educational problem, as demonstrated by the present study.

Auditory processing in children and adolescents in situations of risk and vulnerability

CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: Children and adolescents who live in situations of social vulnerability present a series of health problems. Nonetheless, affirmations that sensory and cognitive abnormalities are present are a matter of controversy. The aim of this study was to investigate aspects to auditory processing, through applying the brainstem auditory evoked potential (BAEP) and behavioral auditory processing tests to children living on the streets, and comparison with a control group. DESIGN AND SETTING: Cross-sectional study in the Laboratory of Auditory Processing, School of Medicine, Universidade de São Paulo. METHODS: The auditory processing tests were applied to a group of 27 individuals, subdivided into 11 children (7 to 10 years old) and 16 adolescents (11 to 16 years old), of both sexes, in situations of social vulnerability, compared with an age-matched control group of 10 children and 11 adolescents without complaints. The BAEP test was also applied to investigate the integrity of the auditory pathway. RESULTS: For both children and adolescents, there were significant differences between the study and control groups in most of the tests applied, with significantly worse performance in the study group, except in the pediatric speech intelligibility test. Only one child had an abnormal result in the BAEP test. CONCLUSIONS: The results showed that the study group (children and adolescents) presented poor performance in the behavioral auditory processing tests, despite their unaltered auditory brainstem pathways, as shown by their normal results in the BAEP test.

Development of advanced tools and methods for the assessment and management of risk due to atypical major accident scenarios

Proper hazard identification has become progressively more difficult to achieve, as witnessed by several major accidents that took place in Europe, such as the Ammonium Nitrate explosion at Toulouse (2001) and the vapour cloud explosion at Buncefield (2005), whose accident scenarios were not considered by their site safety case. Furthermore, the rapid renewal in the industrial technology has brought about the need to upgrade hazard identification methodologies. Accident scenarios of emerging technologies, which are not still properly identified, may remain unidentified until they take place for the first time. The consideration of atypical scenarios deviating from normal expectations of unwanted events or worst case reference scenarios is thus extremely challenging. A specific method named Dynamic Procedure for Atypical Scenarios Identification (DyPASI) was developed as a complementary tool to bow-tie identification techniques. The main aim of the methodology is to provide an easier but comprehensive hazard identification of the industrial process analysed, by systematizing information from early signals of risk related to past events, near misses and inherent studies. DyPASI was validated on the two examples of new and emerging technologies: Liquefied Natural Gas regasification and Carbon Capture and Storage. The study broadened the knowledge on the related emerging risks and, at the same time, demonstrated that DyPASI is a valuable tool to obtain a complete and updated overview of potential hazards. Moreover, in order to tackle underlying accident causes of atypical events, three methods for the development of early warning indicators were assessed: the Resilience-based Early Warning Indicator (REWI) method, the Dual Assurance method and the Emerging Risk Key Performance Indicator method. REWI was found to be the most complementary and effective of the three, demonstrating that its synergy with DyPASI would be an adequate strategy to improve hazard identification methodologies towards the capture of atypical accident scenarios.

Adding regional analgesia to general anaesthesia: increase of risk or improved outcome?

Although it is clear that regional analgesia in association with general anaesthesia substantially reduces postoperative pain, the benefits in terms of overall perioperative outcome are less evident. The aim of this nonsystematic review was to evaluate the effect on middle and long-term postoperative outcomes of adding regional perioperative analgesia to general anaesthesia. This study is based mostly on systematic reviews, large epidemiological studies and large or high-quality randomized controlled trials that were selected and evaluated by the author. The endpoints that are discussed are perioperative morbidity, cancer recurrence, chronic postoperative pain, postoperative rehabilitation and risk of neurologic damage. Epidural analgesia may have a favourable but very small effect on perioperative morbidity. The influence of other regional anaesthetic techniques on perioperative morbidity is unclear. Preliminary data suggest that regional analgesia might reduce the incidence of cancer recurrence. However, adequately powered randomized controlled trials are lacking. The sparse literature available suggests that regional analgesia may prevent the development of chronic postoperative pain. Rehabilitation in the immediate postoperative period is possibly improved, but the advantages in the long term remain unclear. Permanent neurological damage is extremely rare. In conclusion, while the risk of permanent neurologic damage remains extremely low, evidence suggests that regional analgesia may improve relevant outcomes in the long term. The effect size is mostly small or the number-needed-to-treat is high. However, considering the importance of the outcomes of interest, even minor improvement probably has substantial clinical relevance.

Study protocol: Transition from localized low back pain to chronic widespread pain in general practice: identification of risk factors, preventive factors and key elements for treatment--a cohort study

Background Chronic localized pain syndromes, especially chronic low back pain (CLBP), are common reasons for consultation in general practice. In some cases chronic localized pain syndromes can appear in combination with chronic widespread pain (CWP). Numerous studies have shown a strong association between CWP and several physical and psychological factors. These studies are population-based cross-sectional and do not allow for assessing chronology. There are very few prospective studies that explore the predictors for the onset of CWP, where the main focus is identifying risk factors for the CWP incidence. Until now there have been no studies focusing on preventive factors keeping patients from developing CWP. Our aim is to perform a cross sectional study on the epidemiology of CLBP and CWP in general practice and to look for distinctive features regarding resources like resilience, self-efficacy and coping strategies. A subsequent cohort study is designed to identify the risk and protective factors of pain generalization (development of CWP) in primary care for CLBP patients. Methods/Design Fifty-nine general practitioners recruit consecutively, during a 5 month period, all patients who are consulting their family doctor because of chronic low back pain (where the pain is lasted for 3 months). Patients are asked to fill out a questionnaire on pain anamnesis, pain-perception, co-morbidities, therapy course, medication, socio demographic data and psychosomatic symptoms. We assess resilience, coping resources, stress management and self-efficacy as potential protective factors for pain generalization. Furthermore, we raise risk factors for pain generalization like anxiety, depression, trauma and critical life events. During a twelve months follow up period a cohort of CLBP patients without CWP will be screened on a regular basis (3 monthly) for pain generalization (outcome: incident CWP). Discussion This cohort study will be the largest study which prospectively analyzes predictors for transition from CLBP to CWP in primary care setting. In contrast to the typically researched risk factors, which increase the probability of pain generalization, this study also focus intensively on protective factors, which decrease the probability of pain generalization.

Phylogenetic analysis of "Candidatus Mycoplasma turicensis" isolates from pet cats in the United Kingdom, Australia, and South Africa, with analysis of risk factors for infection

Two hemotropic mycoplasmas have been recognized in cats, Mycoplasma haemofelis and "Candidatus Mycoplasma haemominutum." We recently described a third feline hemoplasma species, designated "Candidatus Mycoplasma turicensis," in a Swiss cat with hemolytic anemia. This isolate induced anemia after experimental transmission to two specific-pathogen-free cats and analysis of the 16S rRNA gene revealed its close relationship to rodent hemotropic mycoplasmas. The agent was recently shown to be prevalent in Swiss pet cats. We sought to investigate the presence and clinical importance of "Candidatus Mycoplasma turicensis" infection in pet cats outside of Switzerland and to perform the molecular characterization of isolates from different countries. A "Candidatus Mycoplasma turicensis"-specific real-time PCR assay was applied to blood samples from 426 United Kingdom (UK), 147 Australian, and 69 South African pet cats. The 16S rRNA genes of isolates from different countries were sequenced and signalment and laboratory data for the cats were evaluated for associations with "Candidatus Mycoplasma turicensis" infection. Infections were detected in samples from UK, Australian, and South African pet cats. Infection was associated with the male gender, and "Candidatus Mycoplasma haemominutum" and M. haemofelis coinfection. Coinfected cats exhibited significantly lower packed cell volume (PCV) values than uninfected cats. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that some Australian and South African "Candidatus Mycoplasma turicensis" isolates branched away from the remaining isolates. In summary, "Candidatus Mycoplasma turicensis" infection in pet cats exists over a wide geographical area and significantly decreased PCV values are observed in cats coinfected with other feline hemoplasmas.

Prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular disease in HIV-infected patients over time: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE: Metabolic changes caused by antiretroviral therapy (ART) may increase the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). We evaluated changes in the prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) and 10-year risk of CHD in a large cohort of HIV-infected individuals. METHODS: All individuals from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) who completed at least one CVRF questionnaire and for whom laboratory data were available for the period February 2000 to February 2006 were included in the analysis. The presence of a risk factor was determined using cut-offs based on the guidelines of the National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP ATP III), the Joint National Committee on Prevention, Detection, Evaluation, and Treatment of High Blood Pressure (JNC7), the American Diabetes Association, and the Swiss Society for Cardiology. RESULTS: Overall, 8,033 individuals completed at least one CVRF questionnaire. The most common CVRFs in the first completed questionnaire were smoking (57.0%), low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol (37.2%), high triglycerides (35.7%), and high blood pressure (26.1%). In total, 2.7 and 13.8% of patients were categorized as being at high (>20%) and moderate (10-20%) 10-year risk for CHD, respectively. Over 6 years the percentage of smokers decreased from 61.4 to 47.6% and the percentage of individuals with total cholesterol >6.2 mmol/L decreased from 21.1 to 12.3%. The prevalence of CVRFs and CHD risk was higher in patients currently on ART than in either pretreated or ART-naive patients. CONCLUSION: During the 6-year observation period, the prevalence of CVRFs remains high in the SHCS. Time trends indicate a decrease in the percentage of smokers and individuals with high cholesterol.

Choosing Smoothness Parameters for Smoothing Splines by Minimizing and Estimate of Risk

Smoothing splines are a popular approach for non-parametric regression problems. We use periodic smoothing splines to fit a periodic signal plus noise model to data for which we assume there are underlying circadian patterns. In the smoothing spline methodology, choosing an appropriate smoothness parameter is an important step in practice. In this paper, we draw a connection between smoothing splines and REACT estimators that provides motivation for the creation of criteria for choosing the smoothness parameter. The new criteria are compared to three existing methods, namely cross-validation, generalized cross-validation, and generalization of maximum likelihood criteria, by a Monte Carlo simulation and by an application to the study of circadian patterns. For most of the situations presented in the simulations, including the practical example, the new criteria out-perform the three existing criteria.