996 resultados para risk constraints
Resumo:
The representation of sustainability concerns in industrial forests management plans, in relation to environmental, social and economic aspects, involve a great amount of details when analyzing and understanding the interaction among these aspects to reduce possible future impacts. At the tactical and operational planning levels, methods based on generic assumptions usually provide non-realistic solutions, impairing the decision making process. This study is aimed at improving current operational harvesting planning techniques, through the development of a mixed integer goal programming model. This allows the evaluation of different scenarios, subject to environmental and supply constraints, increase of operational capacity, and the spatial consequences of dispatching harvest crews to certain distances over the evaluation period. As a result, a set of performance indicators was selected to evaluate all optimal solutions provided to different possible scenarios and combinations of these scenarios, and to compare these outcomes with the real results observed by the mill in the study case area. Results showed that it is possible to elaborate a linear programming model that adequately represents harvesting limitations, production aspects and environmental and supply constraints. The comparison involving the evaluated scenarios and the real observed results showed the advantage of using more holistic approaches and that it is possible to improve the quality of the planning recommendations using linear programming techniques.
Resumo:
The economic occupation of an area of 500 ha for Piracicaba was studied with the irrigated cultures of maize, tomato, sugarcane and beans, having used models of deterministic linear programming and linear programming including risk for the Target-Motad model, where two situations had been analyzed. In the deterministic model the area was the restrictive factor and the water was not restrictive for none of the tested situations. For the first situation the gotten maximum income was of R$ 1,883,372.87 and for the second situation it was of R$ 1,821,772.40. In the model including risk a producer that accepts risk can in the first situation get the maximum income of R$ 1,883,372. 87 with a minimum risk of R$ 350 year(-1), and in the second situation R$ 1,821,772.40 with a minimum risk of R$ 40 year(-1). Already a producer averse to the risk can get in the first situation a maximum income of R$ 1,775,974.81 with null risk and for the second situation R$ 1.707.706, 26 with null risk, both without water restriction. These results stand out the importance of the inclusion of the risk in supplying alternative occupations to the producer, allowing to a producer taking of decision considered the risk aversion and the pretension of income.
Resumo:
Experimental results obtained from a greenhouse trial with common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L) plants performed to test model hypotheses regarding the onset of limiting hydraulic conditions and the shape of the transpiration reduction curve in the falling rate phase are presented. According to these hypotheses based on simulations with an upscaled single-root model, the matric flux potential at the onset of limiting hydraulic conditions is as a function of root length density and potential transpiration rate, while the relative transpiration in the falling rate phase equals the relative matric flux potential. Transpiration of bean plants in water stressed pots with four different soils was determined daily by weighing and compared to values obtained from non-stressed pots. This procedure allowed determining the onset of the falling rate phase and corresponding soil hydraulic conditions. At the onset of the falling rate phase, the value of matric flux potential M(I) showed to differ in order of magnitude from the model predicted value for three out of four soils. This difference between model and experiment can be explained by the heterogeneity of the root distribution which is not considered by the model. An empirical factor to deal with this heterogeneity should be included in the model to improve predictions. Comparing the predictions of relative transpiration in the falling rate phase using a linear shape with water content, pressure head or matric flux potential, the matric flux potential based reduction function, in agreement with the hypothesis, showed the best performance, while the pressure head based equation resulted in the highest deviations between observed and predicted values of relative transpiration rates. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Background: Previous work showed that daily ingestion of an aqueous soy extract fermented with Enterococcus faecium CRL 183 and Lactobacillus helveticus 416, supplemented or not with isoflavones, reduced the total cholesterol and non-HDL-cholesterol levels, increased the high-density lipoprotein (HDL) concentration and inhibited the raising of autoantibody against oxidized low-density lipoprotein (ox-LDL Ab) and the development of atherosclerotic lesions. Objective: The aim of this study was to characterize the fecal microbiota in order to investigate the possible correlation between fecal microbiota, serum lipid parameters and atherosclerotic lesion development in rabbits with induced hypercholesterolemia, that ingested the aqueous soy extract fermented with Enterococcus faecium CRL 183 and Lactobacillus helveticus 416. Methods: The rabbits were randomly allocated to five experimental groups (n = 6): control (C), hypercholesterolemic (H), hypercholesterolemic plus unfermented soy product (HUF), hypercholesterolemic plus fermented soy product (HF) and hypercholesterolemic plus isoflavone-supplemented fermented soy product (HIF). Lipid parameters and microbiota composition were analyzed on days 0 and 60 of the treatment and the atherosclerotic lesions were quantified at the end of the experiment. The fecal microbiota was characterized by enumerating the Lactobacillus spp., Bifidobacterium spp., Enterococcus spp., Enterobacteria and Clostridium spp. populations. Results: After 60 days of the experiment, intake of the probiotic soy product was correlated with significant increases (P < 0.05) on Lactobacillus spp., Bifidobacterium spp. and Enterococcus spp. and a decrease in the Enterobacteria population. A strong correlation was observed between microbiota composition and lipid profile. Populations of Enterococcus spp., Lactobacillus spp. and Bifidobacterium spp. were negatively correlated with total cholesterol, non-HDL-cholesterol, autoantibodies against oxidized LDL (ox-LDL Ab) and lesion size. HDL-C levels were positively correlated with Lactobacillus spp., Bifidobacterium spp., and Enterococcus spp. populations. Conclusion: In conclusion, daily ingestion of the probiotic soy product, supplemented or not with isoflavones, may contribute to a beneficial balance of the fecal microbiota and this modulation is associated with an improved cholesterol profile and inhibition of atherosclerotic lesion development.
Resumo:
In recent years, the phrase 'genomic medicine' has increasingly been used to describe a new development in medicine that holds great promise for human health. This new approach to health care uses the knowledge of an individual's genetic make-up to identify those that are at a higher risk of developing certain diseases and to intervene at an earlier stage to prevent these diseases. Identifying genes that are involved in disease aetiology will provide researchers with tools to develop better treatments and cures. A major role within this field is attributed to 'predictive genomic medicine', which proposes screening healthy individuals to identify those who carry alleles that increase their susceptibility to common diseases, such as cancers and heart disease. Physicians could then intervene even before the disease manifests and advise individuals with a higher genetic risk to change their behaviour - for instance, to exercise or to eat a healthier diet - or offer drugs or other medical treatment to reduce their chances of developing these diseases. These promises have fallen on fertile ground among politicians, health-care providers and the general public, particularly in light of the increasing costs of health care in developed societies. Various countries have established databases on the DNA and health information of whole populations as a first step towards genomic medicine. Biomedical research has also identified a large number of genes that could be used to predict someone's risk of developing a certain disorder. But it would be premature to assume that genomic medicine will soon become reality, as many problems remain to be solved. Our knowledge about most disease genes and their roles is far from sufficient to make reliable predictions about a patient’s risk of actually developing a disease. In addition, genomic medicine will create new political, social, ethical and economic challenges that will have to be addressed in the near future.
Resumo:
Parkinson’s disease (PD) is a progressive, degenerative, neurological disease. The progressive disability associated with PD results in substantial burdens for those with the condition, their families and society in terms of increased health resource use, earnings loss of affected individuals and family caregivers, poorer quality of life, caregiver burden, disrupted family relationships, decreased social and leisure activities, and deteriorating emotional well-being. Currently, no cure is available and the efficacy of available treatments, such as medication and surgical interventions, decreases with longer duration of the disease. Whilst the cause of PD is unknown, genetic and environmental factors are believed to contribute to its aetiology. Descriptive and analytical epidemiological studies have been conducted in a number of countries in an effort to elucidate the cause, or causes, of PD. Rural residency, farming, well water consumption, pesticide exposure, metals and solvents have been implicated as potential risk factors for PD in some previous epidemiological studies. However, there is substantial disagreement between the results of existing studies. Therefore, the role of environmental exposures in the aetiology of PD remains unclear. The main component of this thesis consists of a case-control study that assessed the contribution of environmental exposures to the risk of developing PD. An existing, previously unanalysed, dataset from a local case-control study was analysed to inform the design of the new case-control study. The analysis results suggested that regular exposure to pesticides and head injury were important risk factors for PD. However, due to the substantial limitations of this existing study, further confirmation of these results was desirable with a more robustly designed epidemiological study. A new exposure measurement instrument (a structured interviewer-delivered questionnaire) was developed for the new case-control study to obtain data on demographic, lifestyle, environmental and medical factors. Prior to its use in the case-control study, the questionnaire was assessed for test-retest repeatability in a series of 32 PD cases and 29 healthy sex-, age- and residential suburb-matched electoral roll controls. High repeatability was demonstrated for lifestyle exposures, such as smoking and coffee/tea consumption (kappas 0.70-1.00). The majority of environmental exposures, including use of pesticides, solvents and exposure to metal dusts and fumes, also showed high repeatability (kappas >0.78). A consecutive series of 163 PD case participants was recruited from a neurology clinic in Brisbane. One hundred and fifty-one (151) control participants were randomly selected from the Australian Commonwealth Electoral Roll and individually matched to the PD cases on age (± 2 years), sex and current residential suburb. Participants ranged in age from 40-89 years (mean age 67 years). Exposure data were collected in face-to-face interviews. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using conditional logistic regression for matched sets in SAS version 9.1. Consistent with previous studies, ever having been a regular smoker or coffee drinker was inversely associated with PD with dose-response relationships evident for packyears smoked and number of cups of coffee drunk per day. Passive smoking from ever having lived with a smoker or worked in a smoky workplace was also inversely related to PD. Ever having been a regular tea drinker was associated with decreased odds of PD. Hobby gardening was inversely associated with PD. However, use of fungicides in the home garden or occupationally was associated with increased odds of PD. Exposure to welding fumes, cleaning solvents, or thinners occupationally was associated with increased odds of PD. Ever having resided in a rural or remote area was inversely associated with PD. Ever having resided on a farm was only associated with moderately increased odds of PD. Whilst the current study’s results suggest that environmental exposures on their own are only modest contributors to overall PD risk, the possibility that interaction with genetic factors may additively or synergistically increase risk should be considered. The results of this research support the theory that PD has a multifactorial aetiology and that environmental exposures are some of a number of factors to contribute to PD risk. There was also evidence of interaction between some factors (eg smoking and welding) to moderate PD risk.
Resumo:
Results of two experiments are reported that examined how people respond to rectangular targets of different sizes in simple hitting tasks. If a target moves in a straight line and a person is constrained to move along a linear track oriented perpendicular to the targetrsquos motion, then the length of the target along its direction of motion constrains the temporal accuracy and precision required to make the interception. The dimensions of the target perpendicular to its direction of motion place no constraints on performance in such a task. In contrast, if the person is not constrained to move along a straight track, the targetrsquos dimensions may constrain the spatial as well as the temporal accuracy and precision. The experiments reported here examined how people responded to targets of different vertical extent (height): the task was to strike targets that moved along a straight, horizontal path. In experiment 1 participants were constrained to move along a horizontal linear track to strike targets and so target height did not constrain performance. Target height, length and speed were co-varied. Movement time (MT) was unaffected by target height but was systematically affected by length (briefer movements to smaller targets) and speed (briefer movements to faster targets). Peak movement speed (Vmax) was influenced by all three independent variables: participants struck shorter, narrower and faster targets harder. In experiment 2, participants were constrained to move in a vertical plane normal to the targetrsquos direction of motion. In this task target height constrains the spatial accuracy required to contact the target. Three groups of eight participants struck targets of different height but of constant length and speed, hence constant temporal accuracy demand (different for each group, one group struck stationary targets = no temporal accuracy demand). On average, participants showed little or no systematic response to changes in spatial accuracy demand on any dependent measure (MT, Vmax, spatial variable error). The results are interpreted in relation to previous results on movements aimed at stationary targets in the absence of visual feedback.
Resumo:
The effects of temporal precision constraints and movement amplitude on performance of an interceptive aiming task were examined. Participants were required to strike a moving target object with a 'bat' by moving the bat along a straight path (constrained by a linear slide) perpendicular to the path of the target. Temporal precision constraints were defined in terms of the time period (or window) within which contact with the target was possible. Three time windows were used (approx. 35, 50 and 65 ms) and these were achieved either by manipulating the size of the bat (experiment 1a), the size of the target (experiment 1b) or the speed of the target (experiment 2). In all experiments, movement time (MT) increased in proportion to movement amplitude but was only affected by differences in the temporal precision constraint if this was achieved by variation in the target's speed. In this case the MT was approximately inversely proportional to target speed. Peak movement speed was affected by temporal accuracy constraints in all three experiments: participants reached higher speeds when the temporal precision required was greater. These results are discussed with reference to the speed-accuracy trade-off observed for temporally constrained aiming movements. It is suggested that the MT and speed of interceptive aiming movements may be understood as responses to the spatiotemporal constraints of the task.
Resumo:
A participative ergonomics approach to reducing injuries associated with manual tasks is widely promoted; however only limited evidence from uncontrolled trials has been available to support the efficacy of such an approach. This paper reports on a randomized and controlled trial of PErforM, a participative ergonomics intervention designed to reduce the risks of injury associated with manual tasks. One hundred and seventeen small to medium sized food, construction, and health workplaces were audited by government inspectors using a manual tasks risk assessment tool (ManTRA). Forty-eight volunteer workplaces were then randomly assigned to Experimental and Control groups with the Experimental group receiving the PErforM program. Inspectors audited the workplaces again, 9 months following the intervention. The results showed a significant decrease in estimates of manual task risk and suggested better legal compliance in the Experimental group.
Resumo:
Quasar (QSO) absorption spectra provide an extremely useful probe of possible cosmological variation in various physical constants. Comparison of H i 21-cm absorption with corresponding molecular (rotational) absorption spectra allows us to constrain variation in , where α is the fine-structure constant and gp is the proton g-factor. We analyse spectra of two QSOs, PKS 1413+135 and TXS 0218+357, and derive values of at absorption redshifts of and 0.6847 by simultaneous fitting of the H i 21-cm and molecular lines. We find and respectively, indicating an insignificantly smaller y in the past. We compare our results with other constraints from the same two QSOs given recently by Drinkwater et al. and Carilli et al., and with our recent optical constraints, which indicated a smaller α at higher redshifts.