Food-safety hazards in the pork chain in Nagaland, North East India: implications for human health.

Pork occupies an important place in the diet of the population of Nagaland, one of the North East Indian states. We carried out a pilot study along the pork meat production chain, from live animal to end consumer. The goal was to obtain information about the presence of selected food borne hazards in pork in order to assess the risk deriving from these hazards to the health of the local consumers and make recommendations for improving food safety. A secondary objective was to evaluate the utility of risk-based approaches to food safety in an informal food system. We investigated samples from pigs and pork sourced at slaughter in urban and rural environments, and at retail, to assess a selection of food-borne hazards. In addition, consumer exposure was characterized using information about hygiene and practices related to handling and preparing pork. A qualitative hazard characterization, exposure assessment and hazard characterization for three representative hazards or hazard proxies, namely Enterobacteriaceae, T. solium cysticercosis and antibiotic residues, is presented. Several important potential food-borne pathogens are reported for the first time including Listeria spp. and Brucella suis. This descriptive pilot study is the first risk-based assessment of food safety in Nagaland. We also characterise possible interventions to be addressed by policy makers, and supply data to inform future risk assessments.

The role of substance abuse treatment in preventing human immunodeficiency virus transmission among injecting drug users

This exploratory study assesses the utility of substance abuse treatment as a strategy for preventing human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission among injecting drug users (IDUs). Data analyzed in this study were collected in San Antonio, TX, 1989 through 1995 using both qualitative and quantitative methods. Qualitative data included ethnographic interviews with 234 active IDUs; quantitative data included baseline risk assessments and HIV screening plus interviews follow-up interviews administered approximately six months later to 823 IDUs participating in a Federally-funded AIDS community outreach demonstration project.^ Findings that have particularly important implications for substance abuse treatment as an HIV prevention strategy for IDUs are listed below. (1) IDUs who wanted treatment were significantly more likely to be daily heroin users. (2) IDUs who want treatment were significantly more likely to have been to treatment previously. (3) IDUs who wanted treatment at baseline reported significantly higher levels of HIV risk than IDUs who did not want treatment. (4) IDUs who went to treatment between their baseline and follow-up interviews reported significantly higher levels of HIV risk at baseline than IDUs who did not go to treatment. (5) IDUs who went to treatment between their baseline and follow-up interviews reported significantly greater decreases in injection-related HIV risk behaviors. (6) IDUs who went to treatment reported significantly greater decreases in sexual HIV risk behaviors than IDUs who did not go to treatment.^ This study also noted a number of factors that may limit the effectiveness of substance abuse treatment in reducing HIV risk among IDUs. Findings suggest that the impact of methadone maintenance on HIV risk behaviors among opioid dependent IDUs may be limited by the negative manner in which it is perceived by IDUs as well as other elements of society. One consequence of the negative perception of methadone maintenance held by many elements of society may be an unwillingness to provide public funding for an adequate number of methadone maintenance slots. Thus many IDUs who would be willing to enter methadone maintenance are unable to enter it and many IDUs who do enter it are forced to drop out prematurely. ^

A pilot study for targeted surveillance of bovine spongiform encephalopathy in Nigeria.

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), popularly known as 'mad cow disease', led to an epidemic in Europe that peaked in the mid-1990s. Its impact on developing countries, such as Nigeria, has not been fully established as information on livestock and surveillance has eluded those in charge of this task. The BSE risk to Nigeria's cattle population currently remains undetermined, which has resulted in international trade restrictions on commodities from the cattle population. This is mainly because of a lack of updated BSE risk assessments and disease surveillance data. To evaluate the feasibility of BSE surveillance in Nigeria, we carried out a pilot study targeting cattle that were presented for emergency or casualty slaughter. In total, 1551 cattle of local breeds, aged 24 months and above were clinically examined. Ataxia, recumbency and other neurological signs were topmost on our list of criteria. A total of 96 cattle, which correspond to 6.2%, presented clinical signs that supported a suspect of BSE. The caudal brainstem tissues of these animals were collected post-mortem and analysed for the disease-specific form of the prion protein using a rapid test approved by the International Animal Health Organization (OIE). None of the samples were positive for BSE. Although our findings do not exclude the presence of BSE in Nigeria, they do demonstrate that targeted sampling of clinically suspected cases of BSE is feasible in developing countries. In addition, these findings point to the possibility of implementing clinical monitoring schemes for BSE and potentially other diseases with grave economic and public health consequences.

Using Bayes' rule to define the value of evidence from syndromic surveillance

In this work we propose the adoption of a statistical framework used in the evaluation of forensic evidence as a tool for evaluating and presenting circumstantial "evidence" of a disease outbreak from syndromic surveillance. The basic idea is to exploit the predicted distributions of reported cases to calculate the ratio of the likelihood of observing n cases given an ongoing outbreak over the likelihood of observing n cases given no outbreak. The likelihood ratio defines the Value of Evidence (V). Using Bayes' rule, the prior odds for an ongoing outbreak are multiplied by V to obtain the posterior odds. This approach was applied to time series on the number of horses showing clinical respiratory symptoms or neurological symptoms. The separation between prior beliefs about the probability of an outbreak and the strength of evidence from syndromic surveillance offers a transparent reasoning process suitable for supporting decision makers. The value of evidence can be translated into a verbal statement, as often done in forensics or used for the production of risk maps. Furthermore, a Bayesian approach offers seamless integration of data from syndromic surveillance with results from predictive modeling and with information from other sources such as disease introduction risk assessments.

Coxiella burnetii Infections in Small Ruminants and Humans in Switzerland

The recent Q fever epidemic in the Netherlands raised concerns about the potential risk of outbreaks in other European countries. In Switzerland, the prevalence of Q fever in animals and humans has not been studied in recent years. In this study, we describe the current situation with respect to Coxiella (C.) burnetii infections in small ruminants and humans in Switzerland, as a basis for future epidemiological investigations and public health risk assessments. Specific objectives of this cross-sectional study were to (i) estimate the seroprevalence of C. burnetii in sheep and goats, (ii) quantify the amount of bacteria shed during abortion and (iii) analyse temporal trends in human C. burnetii infections. The seroprevalence of C. burnetii in small ruminants was determined by commercial ELISA from a representative sample of 100 sheep flocks and 72 goat herds. Herd-level seroprevalence was 5.0% (95% CI: 1.6-11.3) for sheep and 11.1% (95% CI: 4.9-20.7) for goats. Animal-level seroprevalence was 1.8% (95% CI: 0.8-3.4) for sheep and 3.4% (95% CI: 1.7-6) for goats. The quantification of C. burnetii in 97 ovine and caprine abortion samples by real-time PCR indicated shedding of >10(4) bacteria/g in 13.4% of all samples tested. To our knowledge, this is the first study reporting C. burnetii quantities in a large number of small ruminant abortion samples. Annual human Q fever serology data were provided by five major Swiss laboratories. Overall, seroprevalence in humans ranged between 1.7% and 3.5% from 2007 to 2011, and no temporal trends were observed. Interestingly, the two laboratories with significantly higher seroprevalences are located in the regions with the largest goat populations as well as, for one laboratory, with the highest livestock density in Switzerland. However, a direct link between animal and human infection data could not be established in this study.

Neonicotinoid insecticides severely affect honey bee queens

Queen health is crucial to colony survival of social bees. Recently, queen failure has been proposed to be a major driver of managed honey bee colony losses, yet few data exist concerning effects of environmental stressors on queens. Here we demonstrate for the first time that exposure to field realistic concentrations of neonicotinoid pesticides during development can severely affect queens of western honey bees (Apis mellifera). In pesticide-exposed queens, reproductive anatomy (ovaries) and physiology (spermathecal-stored sperm quality and quantity), rather than flight behaviour, were compromised and likely corresponded to reduced queen success (alive and producing worker offspring). This study highlights the detriments of neonicotinoids to queens of environmentally and economically important social bees, and further strengthens the need for stringent risk assessments to safeguard biodiversity and ecosystem services that are vulnerable to these substances.

A Simple Model of Credit Rationing with Information Externalities

Credit-rationing model similar to Stiglitz and Weiss [1981] is combined with the information externality model of Lang and Nakamura [1993] to examine the properties of mortgage markets characterized by both adverse selection and information externalities. In a credit-rationing model, additional information increases lenders ability to distinguish risks, which leads to increased supply of credit. According to Lang and Nakamura, larger supply of credit leads to additional market activities and therefore, greater information. The combination of these two propositions leads to a general equilibrium model. This paper describes properties of this general equilibrium model. The paper provides another sufficient condition in which credit rationing falls with information. In that, external information improves the accuracy of equity-risk assessments of properties, which reduces credit rationing. Contrary to intuition, this increased accuracy raises the mortgage interest rate. This allows clarifying the trade offs associated with reduced credit rationing and the quality of applicant pool.

Calibration of tracer concentration measurement and results

A reliable assessment of relevant substance flows is very important for environmental risk assessments and efficiency analysis of measures to reduce or avoid emissions of micropollutants like drugs to water systems. Accordingly, a detailed preparation of monitoring campaigns should include an accuracy check for the sampling configuration to prove the reliability of the monitoring results and the subsequent data processing. The accuracy of substance flow analyses is expected to be particularly weak for substances having high short-term variations of concentrations in sewage. This is especially the case linked to the observation of substance flows close to source in waste water systems. The verification of a monitoring configuration in a hospital sewer in Luxembourg is in the centre of interest of the case study presented here. A tracer test in the sewer system under observation is an essential element of the suggested accuracy check and provides valuable information for an uncertainty analysis. The results illustrate the importance of accuracy checks as an essential element of the preparation of monitoring campaigns. Moreover the study shows that continuous flow proportional sampling enables a representative observation of short-term peak loads of the iodinated x-ray contrast media iobitridol close to source.

(Table 1) Lipid content and organohalogen contaminant concentration in captive sledge dogs (Canis familiaris) and wild female polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Greenland

The limited knowledge and/or the inability to control physiological condition parameters that influence the fate of organohalogen contaminants (OHCs) has been the foremost confounding aspect in monitoring programs and health risk assessments of wild top predators in the Arctic such as the polar bear (Ursus maritimus). In the present comparative study, we used a potential surrogate Canoidea species for the East Greenland polar bear, the captive sledge dog (Canis familiaris), to investigate some factors that may influence the bioaccumulation and biotransformation of major chlorinated and brominated OHCs in adipose tissue and blood (plasma) of control (fed commercial pork fat) and exposed (fed West Greenland minke whale (Balaenoptera acutorostrata) blubber) adult female sledge dogs. Furthermore, we compared the patterns and concentrations of OHCs and their known or suggested hydroxylated (OH) metabolites (e.g., OH-PCBs) in sledge dogs with those in adipose tissue and blood (plasma) of East Greenland adult female polar bears, and blubber of their main prey species, the ringed seal (Pusa hispida). The two-year feeding regime conducted with sledge dogs led to marked differences in overall adipose tissue (and plasma) OHC residue accumulation between the control and exposed groups. Characteristic prey-to-predator OHC bioaccumulation dynamics for major PCB and PBDE congeners (patterns and concentrations) and biotransformation capacity with respect to PCB metabolite formation and OH-PCB retention distinguished, to some extent, captive sledge dogs and wild polar bears. Based on the present findings, we conclude that the use of surrogate species in toxicological investigations for species in the Canoidea family should be done with great caution, although they remain essential in the context of contaminants research with sensitive arctic top carnivore species such as the polar bear.

Have we been underestimating the effects of ocean acidification in zooplankton?

Understanding how copepods may respond to ocean acidification (OA) is critical for risk assessments of ocean ecology and biogeochemistry. The perception that copepods are insensitive to OA is largely based on experiments with adult females. Their apparent resilience to increased carbon dioxide (pCO2) concentrations has supported the view that copepods are 'winners' under OA. Here, we show that this conclusion is not robust, that sensitivity across different life stages is significantly misrepresented by studies solely using adult females. Stage-specific responses to pCO2 (385-6000 µatm) were studied across different life stages of a calanoid copepod, monitoring for lethal and sublethal responses. Mortality rates varied significantly across the different life stages, with nauplii showing the highest lethal effects; nauplii mortality rates increased threefold when pCO2 concentrations reached 1000 µatm (year 2100 scenario) with LC50 at 1084 µatm pCO2. In comparison, eggs, early copepodite stages, and adult males and females were not affected lethally until pCO2 concentrations >= 3000 µatm. Adverse effects on reproduction were found, with >35% decline in nauplii recruitment at 1000 µatm pCO2. This suppression of reproductive scope, coupled with the decreased survival of early stage progeny at this pCO2 concentration, has clear potential to damage population growth dynamics in this species. The disparity in responses seen across the different developmental stages emphasizes the need for a holistic life-cycle approach to make species-level projections to climate change. Significant misrepresentation and error propagation can develop from studies which attempt to project outcomes to future OA conditions solely based on single life history stage exposures.

The relationship between soil geochemistry and the bioaccessibility of trace elements in playground soil

A total of 32 samples of surficial soil were collected from 16 playground areas in Madrid (Spain), in order to investigate the importance of the geochemistry of the soil on subsequent bioaccessibility of trace elements. The in vitro bioaccessibility of As, Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn was evaluated by means of two extraction processes that simulate the gastric environment and one that reproduces a gastric + intestinal digestion sequence. The results of the in vitro bioaccessibility were compared against aqua regia extractions (“total” concentration), and it was found that total concentrations of As, Cu, Pb and Zn were double those of bioaccessible values, whilst that of Cr was ten times higher. Whereas the results of the gastric + intestinal extraction were affected by a high uncertainty, both gastric methods offered very similar and consistent results, with bioaccessibilities following the order: As = Cu = Pb = Zn > Co > Ni > Cr, and ranging from 63 to 7 %. Selected soil properties including pH, organic matter, Fe and CaCO3 content were determined to assess their influence on trace element bioaccessibility, and it was found that Cu, Pb and Zn were predominantly bound to organic matter and, to a lesser extent, Fe oxides. The former fraction was readily accessible in the gastric solution, whereas Fe oxides seemed to recapture negatively charged chloride complexes of these elements in the gastric solution, lowering their bioaccessibility. The homogeneous pH of the playground soils included in the study does not influence trace element bioaccessibility to any significant extent except for Cr, where the very low gastric accessibility seems to be related to the strongly pH-dependent formation of complexes with organic matter. The results for As, which have been previously described and discussed in detail in Mingot et al. (Chemosphere 84: 1386–1391, 2011), indicate a high gastric bioaccessibility for this element as a consequence of its strong association with calcium carbonate and the ease with which these bonds are broken in the gastric solution. The calculation of risk assessments are therefore dependant on the methodology used and the specific environment they address. This has impacts on management strategies formulated to ensure that the most vulnerable of society, children, can live and play without adverse consequences to their health.

Nuclear waste forms for actinides

The disposition of actinides, most recently 239Pu from dismantled nuclear weapons, requires effective containment of waste generated by the nuclear fuel cycle. Because actinides (e.g., 239Pu and 237Np) are long-lived, they have a major impact on risk assessments of geologic repositories. Thus, demonstrable, long-term chemical and mechanical durability are essential properties of waste forms for the immobilization of actinides. Mineralogic and geologic studies provide excellent candidate phases for immobilization and a unique database that cannot be duplicated by a purely materials science approach. The “mineralogic approach” is illustrated by a discussion of zircon as a phase for the immobilization of excess weapons plutonium.

Mollusca Non-Grata: The influence of top-down control and residence time on the abundance, distribution, and behavior of non-native marine snails in Washington State

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

A bizonyosságfüggvények elméletének alkalmazása a pénzügyi kimutatások ellenőrzésében (The application of the theory of belief functions in the audit of financial statements)

A könyvvizsgálati kockázat a téves auditjelentés kiadásának kockázata olyan esetekben, amikor a beszámoló lényeges hibás állítást tartalmaz. Ez a kockázat indirekt módon a hitelintézetek és pénzügyi vállalkozások működésében is megjelenik azokban az esetekben, amikor a lényeges hibás állítást a finanszírozott vállalkozás auditált beszámolója tartalmazza, amelynek az alapján finanszírozási döntést hoznak, vagy a finanszírozás folytatásáról a beszámolóban szereplő, hibás információkból számított hitelkovenánsok alapján döntenek. A könyvvizsgálat kockázatában a vizsgált gazdálkodó üzleti kockázatai tükröződnek vissza, ezért a kockázat felmérése és az ellenőrzés ennek alapján való megtervezése, majd végrehajtása kulcsfontosságú. Jelen tanulmány – kapcsolódva a Hitelintézeti Szemle 2011. évi 4. számához – szintén a kockázat és bizonytalanság témakörét tárgyalja, pontosabban ennek egy gyakorlati vetületét: a bizonyosságfüggvények (belief functions) alkalmazását a könyvvizsgálatban; mindezt a teljesség és a tankönyvszerű rendszerfelépítés igénye nélkül. A módszer ugyanis hazánkban szinte ismeretlen, nemzetközi viszonylatban viszont empirikus kutatásban is rámutattak már az alkalmazás lehetséges előnyeire a hagyományos valószínűségelméleten alapuló számszerű kockázatbecslésekkel szemben. Eszerint a bizonyosságfüggvények jobban reprezentálják a könyvvizsgálóknak a kockázatról alkotott képét, mint a valószínűségek, mert – szemben a hagyományos modellel – nem két, hanem három állapotot kezelnek: a pozitív bizonyíték létezését, a negatív bizonyíték létezését és a bizonyíték hiányának esetét. _______ Audit risk is the risk that the auditor expresses an inappropriate audit opinion when the fi nancial statements are materially misstated. This kind of risk indirectly appears in the fi nancial statements of fi nancial institutions, when the material misstatement is in the fi nanced entity’s statements that serve as a basis for lending decisions or when the decision is made based upon credit covenants calculated from misstated information. The risks of the audit process refl ect the business risks of the auditee, so the assessment of risks, and further the planning and performance of the audit based on it is of key importance. The current study – connecting to No 4 2011 of Hitelintézeti Szemle – also discusses the topic of risk and uncertainty, or to be more precise a practical implementation of the aforementioned: the application of belief functions in the fi eld of external audit. All this without the aim of achieving completeness or textbook-like scrutiny in building up the theory. While the formalism is virtually unknown in Hungary, on the international scene empirical studies pointed out the possible advantages of the application of the method in contrast to risk assessments based on the traditional theory of probability. Accordingly, belief functions provide a better representation of auditors’ perception of risk, as in contrast to the traditional model, belief functions deal with three rather than two states: the existence of supportive evidence, that of negative evidence and the lack of evidence.

Projected responses of North American grassland songbirds to climate change and habitat availability at their northern range limits in Alberta, Canada

Across North America, grassland songbirds have undergone steep population declines over recent decades, commonly attributed to agricultural intensification. Understanding the potential interactions between the impacts of climate change on the future distributions of these species and the availability of suitable vegetation for nesting can support improved risk assessments and conservation planning for this group of species. We used North American bioclimatic niche models to examine future changes in suitable breeding climate for 15 grassland songbird species at their current northern range limits along the boreal forest–prairie ecotone in Alberta, Canada. Our climate suitability projections, combined with the current distribution of native and tame pasture and cropland in Alberta, suggest that some climate-mediated range expansion of grassland songbirds in Alberta is possible. For six of the eight species projected to experience expansions of suitable climate area in Alberta, this suitable climate partly overlaps the current distribution of suitable land cover. Additionally, for more than half of the species examined, most of the area of currently suitable climate was projected to remain suitable to the end of the century, highlighting the importance of Alberta for the long-term persistence of these species. Some northern prairie-endemic species exhibited substantial projected northward shifts of both the northern and southern edges of the area of suitable climate. Baird’s Sparrow (Ammodramus bairdii) and Sprague’s Pipit (Anthus spragueii), both at-risk grassland specialists, are predicted to have limited climate stability within their current ranges, and their expansion into new areas of suitable climate may be limited by the availability of suitable land cover. Our results highlight the importance of the preservation and restoration of remaining suitable grassland habitat within areas of projected climate stability and beyond current northern range limits for the long-term persistence of many grassland songbird species in the face of climate change.