Genetic assignment methods for the direct, real-time estimation of migration rate: a simulation-based exploration of accuracy and power

Genetic assignment methods use genotype likelihoods to draw inference about where individuals were or were not born, potentially allowing direct, real-time estimates of dispersal. We used simulated data sets to test the power and accuracy of Monte Carlo resampling methods in generating statistical thresholds for identifying F-0 immigrants in populations with ongoing gene flow, and hence for providing direct, real-time estimates of migration rates. The identification of accurate critical values required that resampling methods preserved the linkage disequilibrium deriving from recent generations of immigrants and reflected the sampling variance present in the data set being analysed. A novel Monte Carlo resampling method taking into account these aspects was proposed and its efficiency was evaluated. Power and error were relatively insensitive to the frequency assumed for missing alleles. Power to identify F-0 immigrants was improved by using large sample size (up to about 50 individuals) and by sampling all populations from which migrants may have originated. A combination of plotting genotype likelihoods and calculating mean genotype likelihood ratios (D-LR) appeared to be an effective way to predict whether F-0 immigrants could be identified for a particular pair of populations using a given set of markers.

Advantage of single-trial models for response to selection in wheat breeding multi-environment trials

An investigation was conducted to evaluate the impact of experimental designs and spatial analyses (single-trial models) of the response to selection for grain yield in the northern grains region of Australia (Queensland and northern New South Wales). Two sets of multi-environment experiments were considered. One set, based on 33 trials conducted from 1994 to 1996, was used to represent the testing system of the wheat breeding program and is referred to as the multi-environment trial (MET). The second set, based on 47 trials conducted from 1986 to 1993, sampled a more diverse set of years and management regimes and was used to represent the target population of environments (TPE). There were 18 genotypes in common between the MET and TPE sets of trials. From indirect selection theory, the phenotypic correlation coefficient between the MET and TPE single-trial adjusted genotype means [r(p(MT))] was used to determine the effect of the single-trial model on the expected indirect response to selection for grain yield in the TPE based on selection in the MET. Five single-trial models were considered: randomised complete block (RCB), incomplete block (IB), spatial analysis (SS), spatial analysis with a measurement error (SSM) and a combination of spatial analysis and experimental design information to identify the preferred (PF) model. Bootstrap-resampling methodology was used to construct multiple MET data sets, ranging in size from 2 to 20 environments per MET sample. The size and environmental composition of the MET and the single-trial model influenced the r(p(MT)). On average, the PF model resulted in a higher r(p(MT)) than the IB, SS and SSM models, which were in turn superior to the RCB model for MET sizes based on fewer than ten environments. For METs based on ten or more environments, the r(p(MT)) was similar for all single-trial models.

AVALIAÇÃO DA ACEITAÇÃO DO PORTAL INOVAÇÃO: UM ESTUDO DE CASO

Esta pesquisa apresenta estudo de caso cujo objetivo foi analisar a aceitação do Portal Inovação, identificando os fatores preditivos da intenção comportamental de uso e do comportamento de uso direcionadores da adoção da tecnologia por seus usuários via extensão do Modelo Unificado de Aceitação de Tecnologia, denominado pela sigla UTAUT (Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technololgy) de Venkatesh et al. (2003). O objeto da pesquisa o Portal Inovação foi desenvolvido pelo Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (MCTI) em parceria com o Centro de Gestão e Estudos Estratégicos (CGEE), Associação Brasileira de Desenvolvimento Industrial (ABDI) e Instituto Stela, visando atender às demandas do Sistema Nacional de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação (SNCTI) do País. Para atingir os objetivos propostos, recorreu-se às abordagens qualitativa, que foi subsidiada pelo método estudo de caso (YIN, 2005) e quantitativa, apoiada pela metodologia UTAUT, aplicada a usuários do portal e que contemplou o resultado de 264 respondentes validados. Quanto ao material de análise, utilizou-se da pesquisa bibliográfica sobre governo eletrônico (e-Gov), Internet, Sistema Nacional de Inovação, modelos de aceitação de tecnologia, dados oficiais públicos e legislações atinentes ao setor de inovação tecnológica. A técnica de análise empregada quantitativamente consistiu no uso de modelagem por equações estruturais, com base no algoritmo PLS (Partial Least Square) com bootstrap de 1.000 reamostragens. Os principais resultados obtidos demonstraram alta magnitude e significância preditiva sobre a Intenção Comportamental de Uso do Portal pelos fatores: Expectativa de Desempenho e Influência Social. Além de evidenciarem que as condições facilitadoras impactam significativamente sobre o Comportamento de Uso dos usuários. A conclusão principal do presente estudo é a de que ao considerarmos a aceitação de um portal governamental em que a adoção é voluntária, o fator social é altamente influente na intenção de uso da tecnologia, bem como os aspectos relacionados à produtividade consequente do usuário e o senso de utilidade; além da facilidade de interação e domínio da ferramenta. Tais constatações ensejam em novas perspectivas de pesquisa e estudos no âmbito das ações de e-Gov, bem como no direcionamento adequado do planejamento, monitoramento e avaliação de projetos governamentais.

Functional source separation applied to induced visual gamma activity

Objective of this work was to explore the performance of a recently introduced source extraction method, FSS (Functional Source Separation), in recovering induced oscillatory change responses from extra-cephalic magnetoencephalographic (MEG) signals. Unlike algorithms used to solve the inverse problem, FSS does not make any assumption about the underlying biophysical source model; instead, it makes use of task-related features (functional constraints) to estimate source/s of interest. FSS was compared with blind source separation (BSS) approaches such as Principal and Independent Component Analysis, PCA and ICA, which are not subject to any explicit forward solution or functional constraint, but require source uncorrelatedness (PCA), or independence (ICA). A visual MEG experiment with signals recorded from six subjects viewing a set of static horizontal black/white square-wave grating patterns at different spatial frequencies was analyzed. The beamforming technique Synthetic Aperture Magnetometry (SAM) was applied to localize task-related sources; obtained spatial filters were used to automatically select BSS and FSS components in the spatial area of interest. Source spectral properties were investigated by using Morlet-wavelet time-frequency representations and significant task-induced changes were evaluated by means of a resampling technique; the resulting spectral behaviours in the gamma frequency band of interest (20-70 Hz), as well as the spatial frequency-dependent gamma reactivity, were quantified and compared among methods. Among the tested approaches, only FSS was able to estimate the expected sustained gamma activity enhancement in primary visual cortex, throughout the whole duration of the stimulus presentation for all subjects, and to obtain sources comparable to invasively recorded data.

Visualizing uncertainty in multi-spectral remotely sensed imagery

Error and uncertainty in remotely sensed data come from several sources, and can be increased or mitigated by the processing to which that data is subjected (e.g. resampling, atmospheric correction). Historically the effects of such uncertainty have only been considered overall and evaluated in a confusion matrix which becomes high-level meta-data, and so is commonly ignored. However, some of the sources of uncertainty can be explicity identified and modelled, and their effects (which often vary across space and time) visualized. Others can be considered overall, but their spatial effects can still be visualized. This process of visualization is of particular value for users who need to assess the importance of data uncertainty for their own practical applications. This paper describes a Java-based toolkit, which uses interactive and linked views to enable visualization of data uncertainty by a variety of means. This allows users to consider error and uncertainty as integral elements of image data, to be viewed and explored, rather than as labels or indices attached to the data. © 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decadal Change in Vegetation and Soil Phosphorus Pattern across the Everglades Landscape

Wetlands respond to nutrient enrichment with characteristic increases in soil nutrients and shifts in plant community composition. These responses to eutrophication tend to be more rapid and longer lasting in oligotrophic systems. In this study, we documented changes associated with water quality from 1989 to 1999 in oligotrophic Everglades wetlands. We accomplished this by resampling soils and macrophytes along four transects in 1999 that were originally sampled in 1989. In addition to documenting soil phosphorus (P) levels and decadal changes in plant species composition at the same sites, we report macrophyte tissue nutrient and biomass data from 1999 for future temporal comparisons. Water quality improved throughout much of the Everglades in the 1990s. In spite of this improvement, though, we found that water quality impacts worsened during this time in areas of the northern Everglades (western Loxahatchee National Wildlife Refuge [NWR] and Water Conservation Area [WCA] 2A). Zones of high soil P (exceeding 700 mg P kg−1 dry wt. soil) increased to more than 1 km from the western margin canal into the Loxahatchee NWR and more than 4 km from northern boundary canal into WCA-2A. This doubling of the high soil P zones since 1989 was paralleled with an expansion of cattail (Typha spp.)-dominated marsh in both regions. Macrophyte species richness declined in both areas from 1989 to 1999 (27% in the Loxahatchee NWR and 33% in WCA-2A). In contrast, areas well south of the Everglades Agricultural Area, including WCA-3A and Everglades National Park (ENP), did not decline during this time. We found no significant decadal change in plant community patterns from 1989 and 1999 along transects in southern WCA-3A or Shark River Slough (ENP). Our 1999 sampling also included a new transect in Taylor Slough (ENP), which will allow change analysis here in the future. Regular sampling of these transects, to verify decadal-scale environmental impacts or improvements, will continue to be an important tool for long-term management and restoration of the Everglades.

Novas abordagens para configurações automáticas dos parâmetros de controle em comitês de classificadores

Significant advances have emerged in research related to the topic of Classifier Committees. The models that receive the most attention in the literature are those of the static nature, also known as ensembles. The algorithms that are part of this class, we highlight the methods that using techniques of resampling of the training data: Bagging, Boosting and Multiboosting. The choice of the architecture and base components to be recruited is not a trivial task and has motivated new proposals in an attempt to build such models automatically, and many of them are based on optimization methods. Many of these contributions have not shown satisfactory results when applied to more complex problems with different nature. In contrast, the thesis presented here, proposes three new hybrid approaches for automatic construction for ensembles: Increment of Diversity, Adaptive-fitness Function and Meta-learning for the development of systems for automatic configuration of parameters for models of ensemble. In the first one approach, we propose a solution that combines different diversity techniques in a single conceptual framework, in attempt to achieve higher levels of diversity in ensembles, and with it, the better the performance of such systems. In the second one approach, using a genetic algorithm for automatic design of ensembles. The contribution is to combine the techniques of filter and wrapper adaptively to evolve a better distribution of the feature space to be presented for the components of ensemble. Finally, the last one approach, which proposes new techniques for recommendation of architecture and based components on ensemble, by techniques of traditional meta-learning and multi-label meta-learning. In general, the results are encouraging and corroborate with the thesis that hybrid tools are a powerful solution in building effective ensembles for pattern classification problems.

Fatores críticos de sucesso como antecedentes da aceitação de um sistema de informação em uma universidade federal

In recent decades the public sector comes under pressure in order to improve its performance. The use of Information Technology (IT) has been a tool increasingly used in reaching that goal. Thus, it has become an important issue in public organizations, particularly in institutions of higher education, determine which factors influence the acceptance and use of technology, impacting on the success of its implementation and the desired organizational results. The Technology Acceptance Model - TAM was used as the basis for this study and is based on the constructs perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use. However, when it comes to integrated management systems due to the complexity of its implementation,organizational factors were added to thus seek further explanation of the acceptance of such systems. Thus, added to the model five TAM constructs related to critical success factors in implementing ERP systems, they are: support of top management, communication, training, cooperation, and technological complexity (BUENO and SALMERON, 2008). Based on the foregoing, launches the following research problem: What factors influence the acceptance and use of SIE / module academic at the Federal University of Para, from the users' perception of teachers and technicians? The purpose of this study was to identify the influence of organizational factors, and behavioral antecedents of behavioral intention to use the SIE / module academic UFPA in the perspective of teachers and technical users. This is applied research, exploratory and descriptive, quantitative with the implementation of a survey, and data collection occurred through a structured questionnaire applied to a sample of 229 teachers and 30 technical and administrative staff. Data analysis was carried out through descriptive statistics and structural equation modeling with the technique of partial least squares (PLS). Effected primarily to assess the measurement model, which were verified reliability, convergent and discriminant validity for all indicators and constructs. Then the structural model was analyzed using the bootstrap resampling technique like. In assessing statistical significance, all hypotheses were supported. The coefficient of determination (R ²) was high or average in five of the six endogenous variables, so the model explains 47.3% of the variation in behavioral intention. It is noteworthy that among the antecedents of behavioral intention (BI) analyzed in this study, perceived usefulness is the variable that has a greater effect on behavioral intention, followed by ease of use (PEU) and attitude (AT). Among the organizational aspects (critical success factors) studied technological complexity (TC) and training (ERT) were those with greatest effect on behavioral intention to use, although these effects were lower than those produced by behavioral factors (originating from TAM). It is pointed out further that the support of senior management (TMS) showed, among all variables, the least effect on the intention to use (BI) and was followed by communications (COM) and cooperation (CO), which exert a low effect on behavioral intention (BI). Therefore, as other studies on the TAM constructs were adequate for the present research. Thus, the study contributed towards proving evidence that the Technology Acceptance Model can be applied to predict the acceptance of integrated management systems, even in public. Keywords: Technology

Least Median Of Squares Estimation In Power Systems

Static state estimators currently in use in power systems are prone to masking by multiple bad data. This is mainly because the power system regression model contains many leverage points; typically they have a cluster pattern. As reported recently in the statistical literature, only high breakdown point estimators are robust enough to cope with gross errors corrupting such a model. This paper deals with one such estimator, the least median of squares estimator, developed by Rousseeuw in 1984. The robustness of this method is assessed while applying it to power systems. Resampling methods are developed, and simulation results for IEEE test systems discussed. © 1991 IEEE.

Angler Perception and Population Dynamics of the Northern Snakehead (Channa argus) in the Potomac River & Tributaries

Our research sought to address the extent to which the northern snakehead (Channa argus), an invasive fish species, represents a threat to the Potomac River ecosystem. The first goal of our research was to survey the perceptions and opinions of recreational anglers on the effects of the snakehead population in the Potomac River ecosystem. To determine angler perceptions, we created and administered 113 surveys from June – September 2014 at recreational boat ramps along the Potomac River. Our surveys were designed to expand information collected during previous surveys conducted by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. Our results indicated recreational anglers perceive that abundances and catch rates of target species, specifically largemouth bass, have declined since snakehead became established in the river. The second goal of our research was to determine the genetic diversity and potential of the snakehead population to expand in the Potomac River. We hypothesized that the effective genetic population size would be much less than the census size of the snakehead population in the Potomac River. We collected tissue samples (fin clippings) from 79 snakehead collected in a recreational tournament held between Fort Washington and Wilson’s Landing, MD on the Potomac River and from electrofishing sampling conducted by the Maryland Department of Natural Resources in Pomonkey Creek, a tributary of the Potomac River. DNA was extracted from the tissue samples and scored for 12 microsatellite markers, which had previously been identified for Potomac River snakehead. Microsatellite allele frequency data were recorded and analyzed in the software programs GenAlEx and NeEstimator to estimate heterozygosity and effective genetic population size. Resampling simulations indicated that the number of microsatellites and the number of fish analyzed provided sufficient precision. Simulations indicated that the effective population size estimate would expect to stabilize for samples > 70 individual snakehead. Based on a sample of 79 fish scored for 12 microsatellites, we calculated an Ne of 15.3 individuals. This is substantially smaller than both the sample size and estimated population size. We conclude that genetic diversity in the snakehead population in the Potomac River is low because the population has yet to recover from a genetic bottleneck associated with a founder effect due to their recent introduction into the system.

Hierarchically grouped 2D local features applied to edge contour localisation

One of the most significant research topics in computer vision is object detection. Most of the reported object detection results localise the detected object within a bounding box, but do not explicitly label the edge contours of the object. Since object contours provide a fundamental diagnostic of object shape, some researchers have initiated work on linear contour feature representations for object detection and localisation. However, linear contour feature-based localisation is highly dependent on the performance of linear contour detection within natural images, and this can be perturbed significantly by a cluttered background. In addition, the conventional approach to achieving rotation-invariant features is to rotate the feature receptive field to align with the local dominant orientation before computing the feature representation. Grid resampling after rotation adds extra computational cost and increases the total time consumption for computing the feature descriptor. Though it is not an expensive process if using current computers, it is appreciated that if each step of the implementation is faster to compute especially when the number of local features is increasing and the application is implemented on resource limited ”smart devices”, such as mobile phones, in real-time. Motivated by the above issues, a 2D object localisation system is proposed in this thesis that matches features of edge contour points, which is an alternative method that takes advantage of the shape information for object localisation. This is inspired by edge contour points comprising the basic components of shape contours. In addition, edge point detection is usually simpler to achieve than linear edge contour detection. Therefore, the proposed localization system could avoid the need for linear contour detection and reduce the pathological disruption from the image background. Moreover, since natural images usually comprise many more edge contour points than interest points (i.e. corner points), we also propose new methods to generate rotation-invariant local feature descriptors without pre-rotating the feature receptive field to improve the computational efficiency of the whole system. In detail, the 2D object localisation system is achieved by matching edge contour points features in a constrained search area based on the initial pose-estimate produced by a prior object detection process. The local feature descriptor obtains rotation invariance by making use of rotational symmetry of the hexagonal structure. Therefore, a set of local feature descriptors is proposed based on the hierarchically hexagonal grouping structure. Ultimately, the 2D object localisation system achieves a very promising performance based on matching the proposed features of edge contour points with the mean correct labelling rate of the edge contour points 0.8654 and the mean false labelling rate 0.0314 applied on the data from Amsterdam Library of Object Images (ALOI). Furthermore, the proposed descriptors are evaluated by comparing to the state-of-the-art descriptors and achieve competitive performances in terms of pose estimate with around half-pixel pose error.

Variational ensemble Kalman filtering applied to data assimilation problems in computational fluid dynamics

One challenge on data assimilation (DA) methods is how the error covariance for the model state is computed. Ensemble methods have been proposed for producing error covariance estimates, as error is propagated in time using the non-linear model. Variational methods, on the other hand, use the concepts of control theory, whereby the state estimate is optimized from both the background and the measurements. Numerical optimization schemes are applied which solve the problem of memory storage and huge matrix inversion needed by classical Kalman filter methods. Variational Ensemble Kalman filter (VEnKF), as a method inspired the Variational Kalman Filter (VKF), enjoys the benefits from both ensemble methods and variational methods. It avoids filter inbreeding problems which emerge when the ensemble spread underestimates the true error covariance. In VEnKF this is tackled by resampling the ensemble every time measurements are available. One advantage of VEnKF over VKF is that it needs neither tangent linear code nor adjoint code. In this thesis, VEnKF has been applied to a two-dimensional shallow water model simulating a dam-break experiment. The model is a public code with water height measurements recorded in seven stations along the 21:2 m long 1:4 m wide flume’s mid-line. Because the data were too sparse to assimilate the 30 171 model state vector, we chose to interpolate the data both in time and in space. The results of the assimilation were compared with that of a pure simulation. We have found that the results revealed by the VEnKF were more realistic, without numerical artifacts present in the pure simulation. Creating a wrapper code for a model and DA scheme might be challenging, especially when the two were designed independently or are poorly documented. In this thesis we have presented a non-intrusive approach of coupling the model and a DA scheme. An external program is used to send and receive information between the model and DA procedure using files. The advantage of this method is that the model code changes needed are minimal, only a few lines which facilitate input and output. Apart from being simple to coupling, the approach can be employed even if the two were written in different programming languages, because the communication is not through code. The non-intrusive approach is made to accommodate parallel computing by just telling the control program to wait until all the processes have ended before the DA procedure is invoked. It is worth mentioning the overhead increase caused by the approach, as at every assimilation cycle both the model and the DA procedure have to be initialized. Nonetheless, the method can be an ideal approach for a benchmark platform in testing DA methods. The non-intrusive VEnKF has been applied to a multi-purpose hydrodynamic model COHERENS to assimilate Total Suspended Matter (TSM) in lake Säkylän Pyhäjärvi. The lake has an area of 154 km2 with an average depth of 5:4 m. Turbidity and chlorophyll-a concentrations from MERIS satellite images for 7 days between May 16 and July 6 2009 were available. The effect of the organic matter has been computationally eliminated to obtain TSM data. Because of computational demands from both COHERENS and VEnKF, we have chosen to use 1 km grid resolution. The results of the VEnKF have been compared with the measurements recorded at an automatic station located at the North-Western part of the lake. However, due to TSM data sparsity in both time and space, it could not be well matched. The use of multiple automatic stations with real time data is important to elude the time sparsity problem. With DA, this will help in better understanding the environmental hazard variables for instance. We have found that using a very high ensemble size does not necessarily improve the results, because there is a limit whereby additional ensemble members add very little to the performance. Successful implementation of the non-intrusive VEnKF and the ensemble size limit for performance leads to an emerging area of Reduced Order Modeling (ROM). To save computational resources, running full-blown model in ROM is avoided. When the ROM is applied with the non-intrusive DA approach, it might result in a cheaper algorithm that will relax computation challenges existing in the field of modelling and DA.

A space-time hybrid hourly rainfall model for derived flood frequency analysis

For derived flood frequency analysis based on hydrological modelling long continuous precipitation time series with high temporal resolution are needed. Often, the observation network with recording rainfall gauges is poor, especially regarding the limited length of the available rainfall time series. Stochastic precipitation synthesis is a good alternative either to extend or to regionalise rainfall series to provide adequate input for long-term rainfall-runoff modelling with subsequent estimation of design floods. Here, a new two step procedure for stochastic synthesis of continuous hourly space-time rainfall is proposed and tested for the extension of short observed precipitation time series. First, a single-site alternating renewal model is presented to simulate independent hourly precipitation time series for several locations. The alternating renewal model describes wet spell durations, dry spell durations and wet spell intensities using univariate frequency distributions separately for two seasons. The dependence between wet spell intensity and duration is accounted for by 2-copulas. For disaggregation of the wet spells into hourly intensities a predefined profile is used. In the second step a multi-site resampling procedure is applied on the synthetic point rainfall event series to reproduce the spatial dependence structure of rainfall. Resampling is carried out successively on all synthetic event series using simulated annealing with an objective function considering three bivariate spatial rainfall characteristics. In a case study synthetic precipitation is generated for some locations with short observation records in two mesoscale catchments of the Bode river basin located in northern Germany. The synthetic rainfall data are then applied for derived flood frequency analysis using the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show good performance in reproducing average and extreme rainfall characteristics as well as in reproducing observed flood frequencies. The presented model has the potential to be used for ungauged locations through regionalisation of the model parameters.

Fatores críticos de sucesso como antecedentes da aceitação de um sistema de informação em uma universidade federal

In recent decades the public sector comes under pressure in order to improve its performance. The use of Information Technology (IT) has been a tool increasingly used in reaching that goal. Thus, it has become an important issue in public organizations, particularly in institutions of higher education, determine which factors influence the acceptance and use of technology, impacting on the success of its implementation and the desired organizational results. The Technology Acceptance Model - TAM was used as the basis for this study and is based on the constructs perceived usefulness and perceived ease of use. However, when it comes to integrated management systems due to the complexity of its implementation,organizational factors were added to thus seek further explanation of the acceptance of such systems. Thus, added to the model five TAM constructs related to critical success factors in implementing ERP systems, they are: support of top management, communication, training, cooperation, and technological complexity (BUENO and SALMERON, 2008). Based on the foregoing, launches the following research problem: What factors influence the acceptance and use of SIE / module academic at the Federal University of Para, from the users' perception of teachers and technicians? The purpose of this study was to identify the influence of organizational factors, and behavioral antecedents of behavioral intention to use the SIE / module academic UFPA in the perspective of teachers and technical users. This is applied research, exploratory and descriptive, quantitative with the implementation of a survey, and data collection occurred through a structured questionnaire applied to a sample of 229 teachers and 30 technical and administrative staff. Data analysis was carried out through descriptive statistics and structural equation modeling with the technique of partial least squares (PLS). Effected primarily to assess the measurement model, which were verified reliability, convergent and discriminant validity for all indicators and constructs. Then the structural model was analyzed using the bootstrap resampling technique like. In assessing statistical significance, all hypotheses were supported. The coefficient of determination (R ²) was high or average in five of the six endogenous variables, so the model explains 47.3% of the variation in behavioral intention. It is noteworthy that among the antecedents of behavioral intention (BI) analyzed in this study, perceived usefulness is the variable that has a greater effect on behavioral intention, followed by ease of use (PEU) and attitude (AT). Among the organizational aspects (critical success factors) studied technological complexity (TC) and training (ERT) were those with greatest effect on behavioral intention to use, although these effects were lower than those produced by behavioral factors (originating from TAM). It is pointed out further that the support of senior management (TMS) showed, among all variables, the least effect on the intention to use (BI) and was followed by communications (COM) and cooperation (CO), which exert a low effect on behavioral intention (BI). Therefore, as other studies on the TAM constructs were adequate for the present research. Thus, the study contributed towards proving evidence that the Technology Acceptance Model can be applied to predict the acceptance of integrated management systems, even in public. Keywords: Technology

A medida e as escalas de avaliação da saúde das populações neonatais e pediátricas : estudo de simulação de Monte Carlo com variáveis ordinais

A investigação na área da saúde e a utilização dos seus resultados tem funcionado como base para a melhoria da qualidade de cuidados, exigindo dos profissionais de saúde conhecimentos na área específica onde desempenham funções, conhecimentos em metodologia de investigação que incluam as técnicas de observação, técnicas de recolha e análise de dados, para mais facilmente serem leitores capacitados dos resultados da investigação. Os profissionais de saúde são observadores privilegiados das respostas humanas à saúde e à doença, podendo contribuir para o desenvolvimento e bem-estar dos indivíduos muitas vezes em situações de grande vulnerabilidade. Em saúde infantil e pediatria o enfoque está nos cuidados centrados na família privilegiando-se o desenvolvimento harmonioso da criança e jovem, valorizando os resultados mensuráveis em saúde que permitam determinar a eficácia das intervenções e a qualidade de saúde e de vida. No contexto pediátrico realçamos as práticas baseadas na evidência, a importância atribuída à pesquisa e à aplicação dos resultados da investigação nas práticas clínicas, assim como o desenvolvimento de instrumentos de mensuração padronizados, nomeadamente as escalas de avaliação, de ampla utilização clínica, que facilitam a apreciação e avaliação do desenvolvimento e da saúde das crianças e jovens e resultem em ganhos em saúde. A observação de forma sistematizada das populações neonatais e pediátricas com escalas de avaliação tem vindo a aumentar, o que tem permitido um maior equilíbrio na avaliação das crianças e também uma observação baseada na teoria e nos resultados da investigação. Alguns destes aspetos serviram de base ao desenvolvimento deste trabalho que pretende dar resposta a 3 objetivos fundamentais. Para dar resposta ao primeiro objetivo, “Identificar na literatura científica, os testes estatísticos mais frequentemente utilizados pelos investigadores da área da saúde infantil e pediatria quando usam escalas de avaliação” foi feita uma revisão sistemática da literatura, que tinha como objetivo analisar artigos científicos cujos instrumentos de recolha de dados fossem escalas de avaliação, na área da saúde da criança e jovem, desenvolvidas com variáveis ordinais, e identificar os testes estatísticos aplicados com estas variáveis. A análise exploratória dos artigos permitiu-nos verificar que os investigadores utilizam diferentes instrumentos com diferentes formatos de medida ordinal (com 3, 4, 5, 7, 10 pontos) e tanto aplicam testes paramétricos como não paramétricos, ou os dois em simultâneo, com este tipo de variáveis, seja qual for a dimensão da amostra. A descrição da metodologia nem sempre explicita se são cumpridas as assunções dos testes. Os artigos consultados nem sempre fazem referência à distribuição de frequência das variáveis (simetria/assimetria) nem à magnitude das correlações entre os itens. A leitura desta bibliografia serviu de suporte à elaboração de dois artigos, um de revisão sistemática da literatura e outro de reflexão teórica. Apesar de terem sido encontradas algumas respostas às dúvidas com que os investigadores e os profissionais, que trabalham com estes instrumentos, se deparam, verifica-se a necessidade de desenvolver estudos de simulação que confirmem algumas situações reais e alguma teoria já existente, e trabalhem outros aspetos nos quais se possam enquadrar os cenários reais de forma a facilitar a tomada de decisão dos investigadores e clínicos que utilizam escalas de avaliação. Para dar resposta ao segundo objetivo “Comparar a performance, em termos de potência e probabilidade de erro de tipo I, das 4 estatísticas da MANOVA paramétrica com 2 estatísticas da MANOVA não paramétrica quando se utilizam variáveis ordinais correlacionadas, geradas aleatoriamente”, desenvolvemos um estudo de simulação, através do Método de Monte Carlo, efetuado no Software R. O delineamento do estudo de simulação incluiu um vetor com 3 variáveis dependentes, uma variável independente (fator com três grupos), escalas de avaliação com um formato de medida com 3, 4, 5, e 7 pontos, diferentes probabilidades marginais (p1 para distribuição simétrica, p2 para distribuição assimétrica positiva, p3 para distribuição assimétrica negativa e p4 para distribuição uniforme) em cada um dos três grupos, correlações de baixa, média e elevada magnitude (r=0.10, r=0.40, r=0.70, respetivamente), e seis dimensões de amostras (n=30, 60, 90, 120, 240, 300). A análise dos resultados permitiu dizer que a maior raiz de Roy foi a estatística que apresentou estimativas de probabilidade de erro de tipo I e de potência de teste mais elevadas. A potência dos testes apresenta comportamentos diferentes, dependendo da distribuição de frequência da resposta aos itens, da magnitude das correlações entre itens, da dimensão da amostra e do formato de medida da escala. Tendo por base a distribuição de frequência, considerámos três situações distintas: a primeira (com probabilidades marginais p1,p1,p4 e p4,p4,p1) em que as estimativas da potência eram muito baixas, nos diferentes cenários; a segunda situação (com probabilidades marginais p2,p3,p4; p1,p2,p3 e p2,p2,p3) em que a magnitude das potências é elevada, nas amostras com dimensão superior ou igual a 60 observações e nas escalas com 3, 4,5 pontos e potências de magnitude menos elevada nas escalas com 7 pontos, mas com a mesma ma magnitude nas amostras com dimensão igual a 120 observações, seja qual for o cenário; a terceira situação (com probabilidades marginais p1,p1,p2; p1,p2,p4; p2,p2,p1; p4,p4,p2 e p2,p2,p4) em que quanto maiores, a intensidade das correlações entre itens e o número de pontos da escala, e menor a dimensão das amostras, menor a potência dos testes, sendo o lambda de Wilks aplicado às ordens mais potente do que todas as outra s estatísticas da MANOVA, com valores imediatamente a seguir à maior raiz de Roy. No entanto, a magnitude das potências dos testes paramétricos e não paramétricos assemelha-se nas amostras com dimensão superior a 90 observações (com correlações de baixa e média magnitude), entre as variáveis dependentes nas escalas com 3, 4 e 5 pontos; e superiores a 240 observações, para correlações de baixa intensidade, nas escalas com 7 pontos. No estudo de simulação e tendo por base a distribuição de frequência, concluímos que na primeira situação de simulação e para os diferentes cenários, as potências são de baixa magnitude devido ao facto de a MANOVA não detetar diferenças entre grupos pela sua similaridade. Na segunda situação de simulação e para os diferentes cenários, a magnitude das potências é elevada em todos os cenários cuja dimensão da amostra seja superior a 60 observações, pelo que é possível aplicar testes paramétricos. Na terceira situação de simulação, e para os diferentes cenários quanto menor a dimensão da amostra e mais elevada a intensidade das correlações e o número de pontos da escala, menor a potência dos testes, sendo a magnitude das potências mais elevadas no teste de Wilks aplicado às ordens, seguido do traço de Pillai aplicado às ordens. No entanto, a magnitude das potências dos testes paramétricos e não paramétricos assemelha-se nas amostras com maior dimensão e correlações de baixa e média magnitude. Para dar resposta ao terceiro objetivo “Enquadrar os resultados da aplicação da MANOVA paramétrica e da MANOVA não paramétrica a dados reais provenientes de escalas de avaliação com um formato de medida com 3, 4, 5 e 7 pontos, nos resultados do estudo de simulação estatística” utilizaram-se dados reais que emergiram da observação de recém-nascidos com a escala de avaliação das competências para a alimentação oral, Early Feeding Skills (EFS), o risco de lesões da pele, com a Neonatal Skin Risk Assessment Scale (NSRAS), e a avaliação da independência funcional em crianças e jovens com espinha bífida, com a Functional Independence Measure (FIM). Para fazer a análise destas escalas foram realizadas 4 aplicações práticas que se enquadrassem nos cenários do estudo de simulação. A idade, o peso, e o nível de lesão medular foram as variáveis independentes escolhidas para selecionar os grupos, sendo os recém-nascidos agrupados por “classes de idade gestacional” e por “classes de peso” as crianças e jovens com espinha bífida por “classes etárias” e “níveis de lesão medular”. Verificou-se um bom enquadramento dos resultados com dados reais no estudo de simulação.