Numerical modeling of the propagation environment in the atmospheric boundary layer over the Persian Gulf

Strong vertical gradients at the top of the atmospheric boundary layer affect the propagation of electromagnetic waves and can produce radar ducts. A three-dimensional, time-dependent, nonhydrostatic numerical model was used to simulate the propagation environment in the atmosphere over the Persian Gulf when aircraft observations of ducting had been made. A division of the observations into high- and low-wind cases was used as a framework for the simulations. Three sets of simulations were conducted with initial conditions of varying degrees of idealization and were compared with the observations taken in the Ship Antisubmarine Warfare Readiness/Effectiveness Measuring (SHAREM-115) program. The best results occurred with the initialization based on a sounding taken over the coast modified by the inclusion of data on low-level atmospheric conditions over the Gulf waters. The development of moist, cool, stable marine internal boundary layers (MIBL) in air flowing from land over the waters of the Gulf was simulated. The MIBLs were capped by temperature inversions and associated lapses of humidity and refractivity. The low-wind MIBL was shallower and the gradients at its top were sharper than in the high-wind case, in agreement with the observations. Because it is also forced by land–sea contrasts, a sea-breeze circulation frequently occurs in association with the MIBL. The size, location, and internal structure of the sea-breeze circulation were realistically simulated. The gradients of temperature and humidity that bound the MIBL cause perturbations in the refractivity distribution that, in turn, lead to trapping layers and ducts. The existence, location, and surface character of the ducts were well captured. Horizontal variations in duct characteristics due to the sea-breeze circulation were also evident. The simulations successfully distinguished between high- and low-wind occasions, a notable feature of the SHAREM-115 observations. The modeled magnitudes of duct depth and strength, although leaving scope for improvement, were most encouraging.

The relationship between land–ccean surface temperature contrast and radiative forcing

Previous work has demonstrated that observed and modeled climates show a near-time-invariant ratio of mean land to mean ocean surface temperature change under transient and equilibrium global warming. This study confirms this in a range of atmospheric models coupled to perturbed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), slab (thermodynamics only) oceans, and a fully coupled ocean. Away from equilibrium, it is found that the atmospheric processes that maintain the ratio cause a land-to-ocean heat transport anomaly that can be approximated using a two-box energy balance model. When climate is forced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration, the heat transport anomaly moves heat from land to ocean, constraining the land to warm in step with the ocean surface, despite the small heat capacity of the land. The heat transport anomaly is strongly related to the top-of-atmosphere radiative flux imbalance, and hence it tends to a small value as equilibrium is approached. In contrast, when climate is forced by prescribing changes in SSTs, the heat transport anomaly replaces ‘‘missing’’ radiative forcing over land by moving heat from ocean to land, warming the land surface. The heat transport anomaly remains substantial in steady state. These results are consistent with earlier studies that found that both land and ocean surface temperature changes may be approximated as local responses to global mean radiative forcing. The modeled heat transport anomaly has large impacts on surface heat fluxes but small impacts on precipitation, circulation, and cloud radiative forcing compared with the impacts of surface temperature change. No substantial nonlinearities are found in these atmospheric variables when the effects of forcing and surface temperature change are added.

Hillslope scale surface runoff, sediment, and nutrient losses associated with tramline wheelings

Research on arable sandy loam and silty clay loam soils on 4° slopes in England has shown that tramlines (i.e. the unseeded wheeling areas used to facilitate spraying operations in cereal crops) can represent the most important pathway for phosphorus and sediment loss from moderately sloping fields. Detailed monitoring over the October–March period in winters 2005–2006 and 2006–2007 included event-based sampling of surface runoff, suspended and particulate sediment, and dissolved and particulate phosphorus from hillslope segments (each ∼300–800 m2) established in a randomized block design with four replicates of each treatment at each of two sites on lighter and heavier soils. Experimental treatments assessed losses from the cropped area without tramlines, and from the uncropped tramline area, and were compared to losses from tramlines which had been disrupted once in the autumn with a shallow tine. On the lighter soil, the effects of removal or shallow incorporation of straw residues was also determined. Research on both sandy and silty clay loam soils across two winters showed that tramline wheelings represented the dominant pathway for surface runoff and transport of sediment, phosphorus and nitrogen from cereal crops on moderate slopes. Results indicated 5·5–15·8% of rainfall lost as runoff, and losses of 0·8–2·9 kg TP ha−1 and 0·3–4·8 t ha−1 sediment in tramline treatments, compared to only 0·2–1·7% rainfall lost as runoff, and losses of 0·0–0·2 kg TP ha−1 and 0·003–0·3 t ha−1 sediment from treatments without tramlines or those where tramlines had been disrupted. The novel shallow disruption of tramline wheelings using a tine once following the autumn spray operation consistently and dramatically reduced (p < 0·001) surface runoff and loads of sediment, total nitrogen and total phosphorus to levels similar to those measured in cropped areas between tramlines. Results suggest that options for managing tramline wheelings warrant further refinement and evaluation with a view to incorporating them into spatially-targeted farm-level management planning using national or catchment-based agri-environment policy instruments aimed at reducing diffuse pollution from land to surface water systems. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Catchment phosphorous losses: an export coefficient modelling approach with scenario analysis for water management

This paper presents the development of an export coefficient model to characterise the rates and sources of P export from land to water in four reservoir systems located in a semi-arid rural region in southern of Portugal. The model was developed to enable effective management of these important water resource systems under the EU Water Framework Directive. This is the first time such an approach has been fully adapted for the semi-arid systems typical of Mediterranean Europe. The sources of P loading delivered to each reservoir from its catchment were determined and scenario analysis was undertaken to predict the likely impact of catchment management strategies on the scale of rate of P loading delivered to each water body from its catchment. The results indicate the importance of farming and sewage treatment works/collective septic tanks discharges as the main contributors to the total diffuse and point source P loading delivered to the reservoirs, respectively. A reduction in the total P loading for all study areas would require control of farming practices and more efficient removal of P from human wastes prior to discharge to surface waters. The scenario analysis indicates a strategy based solely on reducing the agricultural P surplus may result in only a slow improvement in water quality, which would be unlikely to support the generation of good ecological status in reservoirs. The model application indicates that a reduction of P-inputs to the reservoirs should first focus on reducing P loading from sewage effluent discharges through the introduction of tertiary treatment (P-stripping) in all major residential areas. The fully calibrated export coefficient modelling approach transferred well to semi-arid regions, with the only significant limitation being the availability of suitable input data to drive the model. Further studies using this approach in semi-arid catchments are now needed to increase the knowledge of nutrient export behaviours in semi-arid regions.

Managing Water Quality in Agricultural Catchments

Until recently, pollution control in rural drainage basins of the UK consisted solely of water treatment at the point of abstraction. However, prevention of agricultural pollution at source is now a realistic option given the possibility of financing the necessary changes in land use through modification of the Common Agricultural Policy. This paper uses a nutrient export coefficient model to examine the cost of land-use change in relation to improvement of water quality. Catchment-wide schemes and local protection measures are considered. Modelling results underline the need for integrated management of entire drainage basins. A wide range of benefits may accrue from land-use change, including enhanced habitats for wildlife as well as better drinking water.

A refined parametric model for short term load forecasting

Abstract We present a refined parametric model for forecasting electricity demand which performed particularly well in the recent Global Energy Forecasting Competition (GEFCom 2012). We begin by motivating and presenting a simple parametric model, treating the electricity demand as a function of the temperature and day of the data. We then set out a series of refinements of the model, explaining the rationale for each, and using the competition scores to demonstrate that each successive refinement step increases the accuracy of the model’s predictions. These refinements include combining models from multiple weather stations, removing outliers from the historical data, and special treatments of public holidays.

Climate responses to anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate pollutants

Policies to control air quality focus on mitigating emissions of aerosols and their precursors, and other short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs). On a local scale, these policies will have beneficial impacts on health and crop yields, by reducing particulate matter (PM) and surface ozone concentrations; however, the climate impacts of reducing emissions of SLCPs are less straightforward to predict. In this paper we consider a set of idealised, extreme mitigation strategies, in which the total anthropogenic emissions of individual SLCP emissions species are removed. This provides an upper bound on the potential climate impacts of such air quality strategies. We focus on evaluating the climate responses to changes in anthropogenic emissions of aerosol precursor species: black carbon (BC), organic carbon (OC) and sulphur dioxide (SO2). We perform climate integrations with four fully coupled atmosphere-ocean global climate models (AOGCMs), and examine the effects on global and regional climate of removing the total land-based anthropogenic emissions of each of the three aerosol precursor species. We find that the SO2 emissions reductions lead to the strongest response, with all three models showing an increase in surface temperature focussed in the northern hemisphere high latitudes, and a corresponding increase in global mean precipitation and run-off. Changes in precipitation and run-off patterns are driven mostly by a northward shift in the ITCZ, consistent with the hemispherically asymmetric warming pattern driven by the emissions changes. The BC and OC emissions reductions give a much weaker forcing signal, and there is some disagreement between models in the sign of the climate responses to these perturbations. These differences between models are due largely to natural variability in sea-ice extent, circulation patterns and cloud changes. This large natural variability component to the signal when the ocean circulation and sea-ice are free-running means that the BC and OC mitigation measures do not necessarily lead to a discernible climate response.

Scale interactions between the MJO and the western maritime continent

State-of-the-art regional climate model simulations that are able to resolve key mesoscale circulations are used, for the first time, to understand the interaction between the large-scale convective environment of the MJO and processes governing the strong diurnal cycle over the islands of the Maritime Continent (MC). Convection is sustained in the late afternoon just inland of the coasts due to sea breeze convergence. Previous work has shown that the variability in MC rainfall associated with the MJO is manifested in changes to this diurnal cycle; land-based rainfall peaks before the active convective envelope of the MJO reaches the MC, whereas oceanic rainfall rates peak whilst the active envelope resides over the region. The model simulations show that the main controls on oceanic MC rainfall in the early active MJO phases are the large-scale environment and atmospheric stability, followed by high oceanic latent heat flux forced by high near-surface winds in the later active MJO phases. Over land, rainfall peaks before the main convective envelope arrives (in agreement with observations), even though the large-scale convective environment is only moderately favourable for convection. The causes of this early rainfall peak are convective triggers from land-sea breeze circulations that are strong due to high surface insolation and surface heating. During the peak MJO phases cloud cover increases and surface insolation decreases, which weakens the strength of the mesoscale circulations and reduces land-based rainfall, even though the large-scale environment remains favourable for convection at this time. Hence, scale interactions are an essential part of the MJO transition across the MC.

Climate variability and socio-environmental changes in the northern Aegean (NE Mediterranean) during the last 1500 years

We provide new evidence on sea surface temperature (SST) variations and paleoceanographic/paleoenvironmental changes over the past 1500 years for the north Aegean Sea (NE Mediterranean). The reconstructions are based on multiproxy analyses, obtained from the high resolution (decadal to multidecadal) marine record M2 retrieved from the Athos basin. Reconstructed SSTs show an increase from ca. 850 to 950 AD and from ca. 1100 to 1300 AD. A cooling phase of almost 1.5 �C is observed from ca. 1600 AD to 1700 AD. This seems to have been the starting point of a continuous SST warming trend until the end of the reconstructed period, interrupted by two prominent cooling events at 1832 ± 15 AD and 1995 ± 1 AD. Application of an adaptive Kernel smoothing suggests that the current warming in the reconstructed SSTs of the north Aegean might be unprecedented in the context of the past 1500 years. Internal variability in atmospheric/oceanic circulations systems as well as external forcing as solar radiation and volcanic activity could have affected temperature variations in the north Aegean Sea over the past 1500 years. The marked temperature drop of approximately ~2 �C at 1832 ± 15 yr AD could be related to the 1809 АD ‘unknown’ and the 1815 AD Tambora volcanic eruptions. Paleoenvironmental proxy-indices of the M2 record show enhanced riverine/continental inputs in the northern Aegean after ca. 1450 AD. The paleoclimatic evidence derived from the M2 record is combined with a socio-environmental study of the history of the north Aegean region. We show that the cultivation of temperature-sensitive crops, i.e. walnut, vine and olive, co-occurred with stable and warmer temperatures, while its end coincided with a significant episode of cooler temperatures. Periods of agricultural growth in Macedonia coincide with periods of warmer and more stable SSTs, but further exploration is required in order to identify the causal links behind the observed phenomena. The Black Death likely caused major changes in agricultural activity in the north Aegean region, as reflected in the pollen data from land sites of Macedonia and the M2 proxy-reconstructions. Finally, we conclude that the early modern peaks in mountain vegetation in the Rhodope and Macedonia highlands, visible also in the M2 record, were very likely climate-driven.

Property rights as a public policy tool: an empirical analysis of the social and economic effects

Secure property rights are considered a key determinant of economic development. However, the evaluation of the causal effects of land titling is a difficult task. The Brazilian government through a program called "Papel Passado" has issued titles, since 2004, to over 85,000 families and has the goal to reach 750,000. Furthermore, another topic in Public Policy that is crucial to developing economies is income generation and child labor force participation. Particularly, in Brazil, about 5.4 million children and teenagers between 5 and 17 years old are still working. This thesis examines the direct impact of securing a property title on income and child labor force participation. In order to isolate the causal role of ownership security, this study uses a comparison between two close and very similar communities in the City of Osasco case (a town with 650,000 people in the São Paulo metropolitan area). One of them, Jardim Canaã, was fortunated to receive the titles in 2007, the other, Jardim DR, given fiscal constraints, only will be part of the program schedule in 2012, and for that reason became the control group. Also, this thesis also aims to test if there is any relationship between land title and happiness. The estimates suggest that titling results in a substantial decrease of child labor force participation, increase of income and happiness for the families that received the title compared to the others.

Desenvolvimento de membranas porosas de alumina para fins de tratamento de efluente industrial têxtil

Textile production has been considered as an activity of high environmental impact due to the generation of large volumes of waste water with high load of organic compounds and strongly colored effluents, toxic and difficult biodegradability. This thesis deals with obtaining porous alumina ceramic membranes for filtration of textile effluent in the removal of contaminants, mainly color and turbidity. Two types of alumina with different particle sizes as a basis for the preparation of formulation for mass production of ceramic samples and membranes. The technological properties of the samples were evaluated after using sintering conditions: 1,350ºC-2H, 1,450ºC-30M, 1,450ºC-2H, 1,475ºC-30M and 1,475ºC-2H. The sintered samples were characterized by XRD, XRF, AG, TG, DSC, DL, AA, MEA, RL, MRF-3P, SEM and Intrusion Porosimetry by Mercury. After the characterization, a standard membrane was selected with their respective sintering condition for the filterability tests. The effluent was provided by a local Textile Industry and characterized at the entry and exit of the treatment plant. A statistical analysis was used to study the effluent using the following parameters: pH, temperature, EC, SS, SD, oil and grease, turbidity, COD, DO, total phosphorus, chlorides, phenols, metals and fecal coliform. The filtered effluent was evaluated by using the same parameters. These results demonstrate that the feasibility of the use of porous alumina ceramic membranes for removing contaminants from textile effluent with improved average pore size of 0.4 micrometre (distribution range varying from 0,025 to 2.0 micrometre), with total porosity of 29.66%, and average percentages of color removal efficiency of 89.02%, 92.49% of SS, turbidity of 94.55%, metals 2.70% (manganese) to 71.52% (iron) according to each metal and COD removal of 72.80%

Habitus e territorialidade na composição da dinâmica imobiliária em Natal/RN

Many have sought to understand the spatial processes, which originate from land development and real estate dynamics, seeking also to build new categories of analysis to put some light on the less evident aspects of this process. The discussion about production of space has been adopted in this study, but has proved insufficient to explain this complex urban reality. Here, it is analysed the ways that, in Natal, the market fosters the material basis for capital accumulation. The research had as methodological basis, the analysis of discourse, having full interviews with institutional agents as background. It aimed at understanding the complex, material configuration in urban space. It thus investigates the theory of practices of existing (private and public) agents towards the real estate market, using several concepts, like production of space (Lefèbvre and Harvey); habitus (Bourdieu); spatial fix (Harvey); and territoriality (Haesbaert). Evidence shows that there has been a process of ‗naturalization of certain practices in the market that has had implications for the production of an urban space that is both segmented and segregated, giving rise also to complex material configurations, including different forms of heterotopies (Foucault). These spaces result from capital s own creative dynamics and of the reach for social realization for different groups of people making a living under different economic conditions of income.

Biodigestão anaeróbia dos dejetos de cabritos Saanen alimentados com dietas com diferentes proporções volumoso e concentrado

Avaliaram-se os efeitos da idade do animal e da proporção de volumoso nas dietas sobre a biodigestão anaeróbia dos dejetos de cabritos Saanen. Foram utilizadas as fezes produzidas por cabritos Saanen aos 90, 120 e 150 dias de idade e alimentados com dietas de três relações volumoso:concentrado (80:20, 60:40 e 40:60), representando as dietas 1, 2 e 3, respectivamente. Utilizaram-se biodigestores tipo batelada de bancada com capacidade para 12 litros de substrato em fermentação e 8% de sólidos totais iniciais para determinação das produções e dos potenciais de produção de biogás e metano, da redução de sólidos voláteis e quantificação dos teores de minerais no afluente e efluente. As maiores reduções de sólidos voláteis foram observadas nos substratos preparados com as fezes de cabritos aos 150 dias alimentados com a dieta com relação volumoso:concentrado de 40:60. Os melhores rendimentos de substrato ou fezes foram obtidos com os dejetos dos cabritos de 120 e 150 dias de idade alimentados com a dieta com relação volumoso:concentrado 40:60. As maiores concentrações de minerais nos biodigestores foram observadas para as fezes de cabritos de 150 dias de idade alimentados com a dieta com relação volumoso:concentrado 40:60. A biodigestão anaeróbia é eficiente na remoção de coliformes nos dejetos de caprinos, proporcionando efluentes com no máximo 4,3 × 10² coliformes totais termotolerantes por grama de material.

Desenvolvimento de nanocompósito (hidroxiapatita/ poliuretano) pela gelação (gelling) de poli ( álcool vinílico) (PVA) para remoção de metais pesados

Removing microcontaminants from effluents is a challenge today, because of its high cost and low efficiency, especially in the treatment of effluents containing heavy metals. An alternative that has emerged is the use of biodegradable nanocomposites, which exhibit good removal and recovery performances, in addition to its low cost. With this in mind, the present study aimed to develop and characterize a nanocomposite based on hydroxyapatite (HAP), polyurethane (PU) and polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) for removing heavy metals. Thus, the research was conducted in several steps: i)- Physico-chemical and microbiological hospital effluent characterization; ii)- Production of hydroxyapatite by aqueous precipitation technique, and their characterization; iii)- Production of the nanocomposite in which the hydroxyapatite was added to the polyurethane prepolymers and then the polyvinyl alcohol/hydroxyapatite film was produced; iv)- Polyvinyl composite without film PU/HAp was also produced in the proportions of 20 and 40% HAp; v)- The composites was characterized by the techniques of XRD, FTIR, SEM / EDS, BET, Zeta Potential and TGA; vi)- The sisal and coconut fibres were washed and dried for comparative tests of adsorption; vii)- Adsorption tests for evaluating the removal of heavy metals (nickel and cadmium). Initial screening adsorption capacity (HAp; PU/HAp - 20 and 40%; PU / HAp / PVA), kinetic studies of adsorption of Cd (II) by HAp; multifactorial design analysis (factorial design) for identifying the most important variables in the adsorption of Cd (II) by composite PU/HAp. Also comparative analysis of adsorption of Cd and Ni by composite PU/HAp were conducted, as well as comparative tests of adsorption of Cd (coconut fibre) and Ni (sisal fibre). It was possible to verify that the composite PU/HAp 40% showed better effectiveness for the removal of Cd (II) and Ni (II), above 80%, equivalent to the lignocellulosic fibre used and HAp produced. As main conclusion, it can be referred that the composite PU/HAp 40% is an effective adsorvent to wastewater treatment for heavy metal removal, with low cost and high efficiency

Beneficiamento de sementes de café e efeitos na qualidade fisiológica

Considerando-se a escassez de informações sobre o beneficiamento mecanizado de sementes de café, realizou-se este trabalho para estudar seus efeitos na qualidade fisiológica das sementes de café arábica. Um lote de sementes de 'Catuaí Amarelo IAC 62' foi submetido à ação de máquina de pré-limpeza, máquina de ventiladores e peneiras e mesa densimétrica, em diversas combinações, e as sementes foram avaliadas quanto à germinação e ao vigor (envelhecimento acelerado, emergência de plântulas, altura e massa de matéria seca de plântulas e mudas). O teor de água das sementes também foi determinado. Utilizou-se o delineamento estatístico de blocos ao acaso, com quatro repetições, e o teste de Tukey a 5% para comparação de médias. Concluiu-se que: a) a qualidade fisiológica das sementes foi aprimorada à medida que o lote passou por equipamentos específicos no beneficiamento, culminando com a melhor qualidade na seqüência operacional em que o lote foi submetido à ação da máquina de ventiladores e peneiras e mesa densimétrica; b) a mesa densimétrica, associada à máquina de ventiladores e peneiras, foi o equipamento que proporcionou a melhor separação de materiais que interferem negativamente na qualidade fisiológica das sementes; c) as sementes maiores e/ou mais pesadas tiveram qualidade fisiológica superior, e as sementes mocas graúdas, qualidade fisiológica similar à das sementes chatas graúdas; d) o descarte das frações do lote constituídas por sementes pequenas ou de menor densidade possibilitou a obtenção de lotes homogêneos e com alta qualidade fisiológica, favorecendo a obtenção de mudas mais vigorosas.