Quarantine and surveillance strategies for plant pathogen detection and control

Incursions of plant pests and diseases pose serious threats to food security, agricultural productivity and the natural environment. One of the challenges in confidently delimiting and eradicating incursions is how to choose from an arsenal of surveillance and quarantine approaches in order to best control multiple dispersal pathways. Anthropogenic spread (propagules carried on humans or transported on produce or equipment) can be controlled with quarantine measures, which in turn can vary in intensity. In contrast, environmental spread processes are more difficult to control, but often have a temporal signal (e.g. seasonality) which can introduce both challenges and opportunities for surveillance and control. This leads to complex decisions regarding when, where and how to search. Recent modelling investigations of surveillance performance have optimised the output of simulation models, and found that a risk-weighted randomised search can perform close to optimally. However, exactly how quarantine and surveillance strategies should change to reflect different dispersal modes remains largely unaddressed. Here we develop a spatial simulation model of a plant fungal-pathogen incursion into an agricultural region, and its subsequent surveillance and control. We include structural differences in dispersal via the interplay of biological, environmental and anthropogenic connectivity between host sites (farms). Our objective was to gain broad insights into the relative roles played by different spread modes in propagating an invasion, and how incorporating knowledge of these spread risks may improve approaches to quarantine restrictions and surveillance. We find that broad heuristic rules for quarantine restrictions fail to contain the pathogen due to residual connectivity between sites, but surveillance measures enable early detection and successfully lead to suppression of the pathogen in all farms. Alternative surveillance strategies attain similar levels of performance by incorporating environmental or anthropogenic dispersal risk in the prioritisation of sites. Our model provides the basis to develop essential insights into the effectiveness of different surveillance and quarantine decisions for fungal pathogen control. Parameterised for authentic settings it will aid our understanding of how the extent and resolution of interventions should suitably reflect the spatial structure of dispersal processes.

'Ladd traps' as a visual trap for male and female Queensland fruit fly, Bactrocera tryoni (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Bactrocera tryoni (Froggatt) is Australia's major horticultural insect pest, yet monitoring females remains logistically difficult. We trialled the ‘Ladd trap’ as a potential female surveillance or monitoring tool. This trap design is used to trap and monitor fruit flies in countries other (e.g. USA) than Australia. The Ladd trap consists of a flat yellow panel (a traditional ‘sticky trap’), with a three dimensional red sphere (= a fruit mimic) attached in the middle. We confirmed, in field-cage trials, that the combination of yellow panel and red sphere was more attractive to B. tryoni than the two components in isolation. In a second set of field-cage trials, we showed that it was the red-yellow contrast, rather than the three dimensional effect, which was responsible for the trap's effectiveness, with B. tryoni equally attracted to a Ladd trap as to a two-dimensional yellow panel with a circular red centre. The sex ratio of catches was approximately even in the field-cage trials. In field trials, we tested the traditional red-sphere Ladd trap against traps for which the sphere was painted blue, black or yellow. The colour of sphere did not significantly influence trap efficiency in these trials, despite the fact the yellow-panel/yellow-sphere presented no colour contrast to the flies. In 6 weeks of field trials, over 1500 flies were caught, almost exactly two-thirds of them being females. Overall, flies were more likely to be caught on the yellow panel than the sphere; but, for the commercial Ladd trap, proportionally more females were caught on the red sphere versus the yellow panel than would be predicted based on relative surface area of each component, a result also seen the field-cage trial. We determined that no modification of the trap was more effective than the commercially available Ladd trap and so consider that product suitable for more extensive field testing as a B. tryoni research and monitoring tool.

Can biological motion be a biometric?

Biological motion has successfully been used for analysis of a person's mood and other psychological traits. Efforts are made to use human gait as a non-invasive mode of biometric. In this reported work, we try to study the effectiveness of biological gait motion of people as a cue to biometric based person recognition. The data is 3D in nature and, hence, has more information with itself than the cues obtained from video-based gait patterns. The high accuracies of person recognition using a simple linear model of data representation and simple neighborhood based classfiers, suggest that it is the nature of the data which is more important than the recognition scheme employed.

Estimation of elasticity map of soft biological tissue mimicking phantom using laser speckle contrast analysis

Scattering of coherent light from scattering particles causes phase shift to the scattered light. The interference of unscattered and scattered light causes the formation of speckles. When the scattering particles, under the influence of an ultrasound (US) pressure wave, vibrate, the phase shift fluctuates, thereby causing fluctuation in speckle intensity. We use the laser speckle contrast analysis (LSCA) to reconstruct a map of the elastic property (Young's modulus) of soft tissue-mimicking phantom. The displacement of the scatters is inversely related to the Young's modulus of the medium. The elastic properties of soft biological tissues vary, many fold with malignancy. The experimental results show that laser speckle contrast (LSC) is very sensitive to the pathological changes in a soft tissue medium. The experiments are carried out on a phantom with two cylindrical inclusions of sizes 6 mm in diameter, separated by 8 mm between them. Three samples are made. One inclusion has Young's modulus E of 40 kPa. The second inclusion has either a Young's modulus E of 20 kPa, or scattering coefficient of mu'(s), = 3.00 mm(-1) or absorption coefficient of mu(a) = 0.03 mm(-1). The optical absorption (mu(a)), reduced scattering (mu'(s)) coefficient, and the Young's modulus of the background are mu(a) = 0.01 mm(-1), mu'(s) = 1.00 mm(-1) and 12kPa, respectively. The experiments are carried out on all three phantoms. On a phantom with two inclusions of Young's modulus of 20 and 40 kPa, the measured relative speckle image contrasts are 36.55% and 63.72%, respectively. Experiments are repeated on phantoms with inclusions of mu(a) = 0.03 mm-1, E = 40 kPa and mu'(s) = 3.00 mm(-1). The results show that it is possible to detect inclusions with contrasts in optical absorption, optical scattering, and Young's modulus. Studies of the variation of laser speckle contrast with ultrasound driving force for various values of mu(a), mu'(s), and Young's modulus of the tissue mimicking medium are also carried out. (C) 2011 American Institute of Physics. doi:10.1063/1.3592352]

Daily relative humidity projections in an Indian river basin for IPCC SRES scenarios

A two-stage methodology is developed to obtain future projections of daily relative humidity in a river basin for climate change scenarios. In the first stage, Support Vector Machine (SVM) models are developed to downscale nine sets of predictor variables (large-scale atmospheric variables) for Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) (A1B, A2, B1, and COMMIT) to R (H) in a river basin at monthly scale. Uncertainty in the future projections of R (H) is studied for combinations of SRES scenarios, and predictors selected. Subsequently, in the second stage, the monthly sequences of R (H) are disaggregated to daily scale using k-nearest neighbor method. The effectiveness of the developed methodology is demonstrated through application to the catchment of Malaprabha reservoir in India. For downscaling, the probable predictor variables are extracted from the (1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction reanalysis data set for the period 1978-2000 and (2) simulations of the third-generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model for the period 1978-2100. The performance of the downscaling and disaggregation models is evaluated by split sample validation. Results show that among the SVM models, the model developed using predictors pertaining to only land location performed better. The R (H) is projected to increase in the future for A1B and A2 scenarios, while no trend is discerned for B1 and COMMIT.

Intense Acoustic Burst Ultrasound Modulated Optical Tomography for Elasticity Mapping of Soft Biological Tissue Mimicking Phantom: A Laser Speckle Contrast Analysis Study

This report addresses the assessment of variation in elastic property of soft biological tissues non-invasively using laser speckle contrast measurement. The experimental as well as the numerical (Monte-Carlo simulation) studies are carried out. In this an intense acoustic burst of ultrasound (an acoustic pulse with high power within standard safety limits), instead of continuous wave, is employed to induce large modulation of the tissue materials in the ultrasound insonified region of interest (ROI) and it results to enhance the strength of the ultrasound modulated optical signal in ultrasound modulated optical tomography (UMOT) system. The intensity fluctuation of speckle patterns formed by interference of light scattered (while traversing through tissue medium) is characterized by the motion of scattering sites. The displacement of scattering particles is inversely related to the elastic property of the tissue. We study the feasibility of laser speckle contrast analysis (LSCA) technique to reconstruct a map of the elastic property of a soft tissue-mimicking phantom. We employ source synchronized parallel speckle detection scheme to (experimentally) measure the speckle contrast from the light traversing through ultrasound (US) insonified tissue-mimicking phantom. The measured relative image contrast (the ratio of the difference of the maximum and the minimum values to the maximum value) for intense acoustic burst is 86.44 % in comparison to 67.28 % for continuous wave excitation of ultrasound. We also present 1-D and 2-D image of speckle contrast which is the representative of elastic property distribution.

Distribution, relative abundance, and conservation status of Asian elephants in Karnataka, southern India

Karnataka state in southern India supports a globally significant and the country's largest population of the Asian elephant Elephas maximus. A reliable map of Asian elephant distribution and measures of spatial variation in their abundance, both vital needs for conservation and management action, are unavailable not only in Karnataka, but across its global range. Here, we use various data gathered between 2000 and 2015 to map the distribution of elephants in Karnataka at the scale of the smallest forest management unit, the `beat', while also presenting data on elephant dung density for a subset of `elephant beats.' Elephants occurred in 972 out of 2855 forest beats of Karnataka. Sixty percent of these 972 beats and 55% of the forest habitat lay outside notified protected areas (PM), and included lands designated for agricultural production and human dwelling. While median elephant dung density inside protected areas was nearly thrice as much as outside, elephants routinely occurred in or used habitats outside PM where human density, land fraction under cultivation, and the interface between human-dominated areas and forests were greater. Based on our data, it is clear that India's framework for elephant conservation which legally protects the species wherever it occurs, but protects only some of its habitats while being appropriate in furthering their conservation within PM, seriously falters in situations where elephants reside in and/or seasonally use areas outside PAs. Attempts to further elephant conservation in production and dwelling areas have extracted high costs in human, elephant, material and monetary terms in Karnataka. In such settings, conservation planning exercises are necessary to determine where the needs of elephants or humans must take priority over the other, and to achieve that in a manner that is based not only on reliable scientific data but also on a process of public reasoning. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Representative Methods for Determining Young's Modulus and Hardness from Instrumented Indentation Data

The effectiveness of Oliver & Pharr's (O&P's) method, Cheng & Cheng's (C&C's) method, and a new method developed by our group for estimating Young's modulus and hardness based on instrumented indentation was evaluated for the case of yield stress to reduced Young's modulus ratio (sigma(y)/E-r) >= 4.55 x 10(-4) and hardening coefficient (n) <= 0.45. Dimensional theorem and finite element simulations were applied to produce reference results for this purpose. Both O&P's and C&C's methods overestimated the Young's modulus under some conditions, whereas the error can be controlled within +/- 16% if the formulation was modified with appropriate correction functions. Similar modification was not introduced to our method for determining Young's modulus, while the maximum error of results was around +/- 13%. The errors of hardness values obtained from all the three methods could be even larger and were irreducible with any correction scheme. It is therefore suggested that when hardness values of different materials are concerned, relative comparison of the data obtained from a single standard measurement technique would be more practically useful. It is noted that the ranges of error derived from the analysis could be different if different ranges of material parameters sigma(y)/E-r and n are considered.

Factors to consider when using native biological control organisms to manage exotic plants

Biological control of exotic plant populations with native organisms appears to be increasing, even though its success to date has been limited. Although many researchers and managers feel that native organisms are easier to use and present less risk to the environment this may not be true. Developing a successful management program with a native insect is dependent on a number of critical factors that need to be considered. Information is needed on the feeding preference of the agent, agent effectiveness, environmental regulation of the agent, unique requirements of the agent, population maintenance of the agent, and time to desired impact. By understanding these factors, researchers and managers can develop a detailed protocol for using the native biological control agent for a specific target plant. . We found E. lecontei in 14 waterbodies, most of which were in eastern Washington. Only one lake with weevils was located in western Washington. Weevils were associated with both Eurasian ( Myriophyllum spicatum L.) and northern watermilfoil ( M. sibiricum K.). Waterbodies with E. lecontei had significantly higher ( P < 0.05) pH (8.7 ± 0.2) (mean ± 2SE), specific conductance (0.3 ± 0.08 mS cm -1 ) and total alkalinity (132.4 ± 30.8 mg CaCO 3 L -1 ). We also found that weevil presence was related to surface water temperature and waterbody location ( = 24.3, P ≤ 0.001) and of all the models tested, this model provided the best fit (Hosmer- Lemeshow goodness-of-fit = 4.0, P = 0.9). Our results suggest that in Washington State E. lecontei occurs primarily in eastern Washington in waterbodies with pH ≥ 8.2 and specific conductance ≥ 0.2 mS cm -1 . Furthermore, weevil distribution appears to be correlated with waterbody location (eastern versus western Washington) and surface water temperature.

Stock assessment of protogynous fish: evaluating measures of spawning biomass used to estimate biological reference points

In stock assessments, recruitment is typically modeled as a function of females only. For protogynous stocks, however, disproportionate fishing on males increases the possibility of reduced fertilization rates. To incorporate the importance of males in protogynous stocks, assessment models have been used to predict recruitment not just from female spawning biomass (Sf), but also from that of males (Sm) or both sexes (Sb). We conducted a simulation study to evaluate the ability of these three measures to estimate biological reference points used in fishery management. Of the three, Sf provides best estimates if the potential for decreased fertilization is weak, whereas Sm is best only if the potential is very strong. In general, Sb estimates the true reference points most closely, which indicates that if the potential for decreased fertilization is moderate or unknown, Sb should be used in assessments of protogynous stocks. Moreover, for a broad range of scenarios, relative errors from Sf and Sb occur in opposite directions, indicating that estimates from these measures could be used to bound uncertainty.

A review of the ecological effectiveness of subtidal marine reserves in Central California, Part I: Synopsis of scientific investigations

Marine reserves, often referred to as no-take MPAs, are defined as areas within which human activities that can result in the removal or alteration of biotic and abiotic components of an ecosystem are prohibited or greatly restricted (NRC 2001). Activities typically curtailed within a marine reserve are extraction of organisms (e.g., commercial and recreational fishing, kelp harvesting, commercial collecting), mariculture, and those activities that can alter oceanographic or geologic attributes of the habitat (e.g., mining, shore-based industrial-related intake and discharges of seawater and effluent). Usually, marine reserves are established to conserve biodiversity or enhance nearby fishery resources. Thus, goals and objectives of marine reserves can be inferred, even if they are not specifically articulated at the time of reserve formation. In this report, we review information about the effectiveness of the three marine reserves in the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary (Hopkins Marine Life Refuge, Point Lobos Ecological Reserve, Big Creek Ecological Reserve), and the one in the Channel Islands National Marine Sanctuary (the natural area on the north side of East Anacapa Island). Our efforts to objectively evaluate reserves in Central California relative to reserve theory were greatly hampered for four primary reasons; (1) few of the existing marine reserves were created with clearly articulated goals or objectives, (2) relatively few studies of the ecological consequences of existing reserves have been conducted, (3) no studies to date encompass the spatial and temporal scope needed to identify ecosystem-wide effects of reserve protection, and (4) there are almost no studies that describe the social and economic consequences of existing reserves. To overcome these obstacles, we used several methods to evaluate the effectiveness of subtidal marine reserves in Central California. We first conducted a literature review to find out what research has been conducted in all marine reserves in Central California (Appendix 1). We then reviewed the scientific literature that relates to marine reserve theory to help define criteria to use as benchmarks for evaluation. A recent National Research Council (2001) report summarized expected reserve benefits and provided the criteria we used for evaluation of effectiveness. The next step was to identify the research projects in this region that collected information in a way that enabled us to evaluate reserve theory relative to marine reserves in Central California. Chapters 1-4 in this report provide summaries of those research projects. Contained within these chapters are evaluations of reserve effectiveness for meeting specific objectives. As few studies exist that pertain to reserve theory in Central California, we reviewed studies of marine reserves in other temperate and tropical ecosystems to determine if there were lessons to be learned from other parts of the world (Chapter 5). We also included a discussion of social and economic considerations germane to the public policy decision-making processes associated with marine reserves (Chapter 6). After reviewing all of these resources, we provided a summary of the ecological benefits that could be expected from existing reserves in Central California. The summary is presented in Part II of this report. (PDF contains 133 pages.)

A review of the ecological effectiveness of subtidal marine reserves in Central California, Part II: Summary of existing marine reserves in Central California and their potential benefits

In Central California, and elsewhere around the world, a great deal of discussion is occurring about the use of marine protected areas (MPAs) as a tool to help manage marine resources. This discussion is taking place because there is growing evidence that humans have depleted marine resources in many parts of the world, often despite strong regulatory efforts. Moreover, there is also mounting evidence that the degradation of marine resources began long ago, and we do not fully realize how much humans have altered “natural” environments. This uncertainty has led people to discuss the use of MPAs as a precautionary tool to prevent depletion or extinction of marine resources, and as a means of redressing past damages. The discussion about the use of marine reserves is increasing in intensity in California because several resource management agencies are considering reserves as they create or revise management plans. Often, the discussions surrounding this important public policy debate lead to questions about the biological or ecological value of existing marine protected areas. More than 100 MPAs exist along the coast of California. Many of these were established arbitrarily and lack specific purposes. Some California marine protected areas also have co-occurring or overlapping boundaries, have conflicting designations for use, and have conflicting rules and regulations. Because few of the existing marine protected areas have clearly articulated goals or objectives, however, it is difficult or impossible to evaluate their ecological effectiveness. (PDF contains 18 pages.)

Relative importance of Deep Creek Lake to other areas in respect to certain recreational and economic aspects

Presents a review of the recreational values and economic importance of Maryland Fishing waters. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Synthesis and biological activity of anticoagulant heparan sulfate glycopolymers

Heparin has been used as an anticoagulant drug for more than 70 years. The global distribution of contaminated heparin in 2007, which resulted in adverse clinical effects and over 100 deaths, emphasizes the necessity for safer alternatives to animal-sourced heparin. The structural complexity and heterogeneity of animal-sourced heparin not only impedes safe access to these biologically active molecules, but also hinders investigations on the significance of structural constituents at a molecular level. Efficient methods for preparing new synthetic heparins with targeted biological activity are necessary not only to ensure clinical safety, but to optimize derivative design to minimize potential side effects. Low molecular weight heparins have become a reliable alternative to heparin, due to their predictable dosages, long half-lives, and reduced side effects. However, heparin oligosaccharide synthesis is a challenging endeavor due to the necessity for complex protecting group manipulation and stereoselective glycosidic linkage chemistry, which often result in lengthy synthetic routes and low yields. Recently, chemoenzymatic syntheses have produced targeted ultralow molecular weight heparins with high-efficiency, but continue to be restricted by the substrate specificities of enzymes.

To address the need for access to homogeneous, complex glycosaminoglycan structures, we have synthesized novel heparan sulfate glycopolymers with well-defined carbohydrate structures and tunable chain length through ring-opening metathesis polymerization chemistry. These polymers recapitulate the key features of anticoagulant heparan sulfate by displaying the sulfation pattern responsible for heparin’s anticoagulant activity. The use of polymerization chemistry greatly simplifies the synthesis of complex glycosaminoglycan structures, providing a facile method to generate homogeneous macromolecules with tunable biological and chemical properties. Through the use of in vitro chromogenic substrate assays and ex vivo clotting assays, we found that the HS glycopolymers exhibited anticoagulant activity in a sulfation pattern and length-dependent manner. Compared to heparin standards, our short polymers did not display any activity. However, our longer polymers were able to incorporate in vitro and ex vivo characteristics of both low-molecular-weight heparin derivatives and heparin, displaying hybrid anticoagulant properties. These studies emphasize the significance of sulfation pattern specificity in specific carbohydrate-protein interactions, and demonstrate the effectiveness of multivalent molecules in recapitulating the activity of natural polysaccharides.

On the Role of Delays in Biological Systems : Analysis and Design

This work quantifies the nature of delays in genetic regulatory networks and their effect on system dynamics. It is known that a time lag can emerge from a sequence of biochemical reactions. Applying this modeling framework to the protein production processes, delay distributions are derived in a stochastic (probability density function) and deterministic setting (impulse function), whilst being shown to be equivalent under different assumptions. The dependence of the distribution properties on rate constants, gene length, and time-varying temperatures is investigated. Overall, the distribution of the delay in the context of protein production processes is shown to be highly dependent on the size of the genes and mRNA strands as well as the reaction rates. Results suggest longer genes have delay distributions with a smaller relative variance, and hence, less uncertainty in the completion times, however, they lead to larger delays. On the other hand large uncertainties may actually play a positive role, as broader distributions can lead to larger stability regions when this formalization of the protein production delays is incorporated into a feedback system.

Furthermore, evidence suggests that delays may play a role as an explicit design into existing controlling mechanisms. Accordingly, the reccurring dual-feedback motif is also investigated with delays incorporated into the feedback channels. The dual-delayed feedback is shown to have stabilizing effects through a control theoretic approach. Lastly, a distributed delay based controller design method is proposed as a potential design tool. In a preliminary study, the dual-delayed feedback system re-emerges as an effective controller design.