979 resultados para regime changes
Resumo:
In oceans, estuaries, and rivers, nitrification is an important nitrate source, and stable isotopes of nitrate are often used to investigate recycling processes (e.g. remineralisation, nitrification) in the water column. Nitrification is a two-step process, where ammonia is oxidised via nitrite to nitrate. Nitrite usually does not accumulate in natural environments, which makes it difficult to study the single isotope effect of ammonia oxidation or nitrite oxidation in natural systems. However, during an exceptional flood in the Elbe River in June 2013, we found a unique co-occurrence of ammonium, nitrite, and nitrate in the water column, returning towards normal summer conditions within 1 week. Over the course of the flood, we analysed the evolution of d15N-[NH4]+ and d15N-[NO2]- in the Elbe River. In concert with changes in suspended particulate matter (SPM) and d15N SPM, as well as nitrate concentration, d15N-NO3 - and d18O-[NO3] -, we calculated apparent isotope effects during net nitrite and nitrate consumption. During the flood event, > 97 % of total reactive nitrogen was nitrate, which was leached from the catchment area and appeared to be subject to assimilation. Ammonium and nitrite concentrations increased to 3.4 and 4.4 µmol/l, respectively, likely due to remineralisation, nitrification, and denitrification in the water column. d15N-[NH4]+ values increased up to 12 per mil, and d15N-[NO2]- ranged from -8.0 to -14.2 per mil. Based on this, we calculated an apparent isotope effect 15-epsilon of -10.0 ± 0.1 per mil during net nitrite consumption, as well as an isotope effect 15-epsilon of -4.0 ± 0.1 per mil and 18-epsilon of -5.3 ± 0.1 per mil during net nitrate consumption. On the basis of the observed nitrite isotope changes, we evaluated different nitrite uptake processes in a simple box model. We found that a regime of combined riparian denitrification and 22 to 36 % nitrification fits best with measured data for the nitrite concentration decrease and isotope increase.
Resumo:
Ecosystem reconfigurations arising from climate-driven changes in species distributions are expected to have profound ecological, social, and economic implications. Here we reveal a rapid climate-driven regime shift of Australian temperate reef communities, which lost their defining kelp forests and became dominated by persistent seaweed turfs. After decades of ocean warming, extreme marine heat waves forced a 100-kilometer range contraction of extensive kelp forests and saw temperate species replaced by seaweeds, invertebrates, corals, and fishes characteristic of subtropical and tropical waters. This community-wide tropicalization fundamentally altered key ecological processes, suppressing the recovery of kelp forests.
Resumo:
Ecosystem reconfigurations arising from climate-driven changes in species distributions are expected to have profound ecological, social, and economic implications. Here we reveal a rapid climate-driven regime shift of Australian temperate reef communities, which lost their defining kelp forests and became dominated by persistent seaweed turfs. After decades of ocean warming, extreme marine heat waves forced a 100-kilometer range contraction of extensive kelp forests and saw temperate species replaced by seaweeds, invertebrates, corals, and fishes characteristic of subtropical and tropical waters. This community-wide tropicalization fundamentally altered key ecological processes, suppressing the recovery of kelp forests.
Resumo:
Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.
Resumo:
Despite evidence from a number of Earth systems that abrupt temporal changes known as regime shifts are important, their nature, scale and mechanisms remain poorly documented and understood. Applying principal component analysis, change-point analysis and a sequential t-test analysis of regime shifts to 72 time series, we confirm that the 1980s regime shift represented a major change in the Earth's biophysical systems from the upper atmosphere to the depths of the ocean and from the Arctic to the Antarctic, and occurred at slightly different times around the world. Using historical climate model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and statistical modelling of historical temperatures, we then demonstrate that this event was triggered by rapid global warming from anthropogenic plus natural forcing, the latter associated with the recovery from the El Chichón volcanic eruption. The shift in temperature that occurred at this time is hypothesized as the main forcing for a cascade of abrupt environmental changes. Within the context of the last century or more, the 1980s event was unique in terms of its global scope and scale; our observed consequences imply that if unavoidable natural events such as major volcanic eruptions interact with anthropogenic warming unforeseen multiplier effects may occur.
Resumo:
During the 1980s, the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatiotemporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959–1980 and 1989–2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized.
Resumo:
During the 1980s, the North Sea plankton community underwent a well-documented ecosystem regime shift, including both spatial changes (northward species range shifts) and temporal changes (increases in the total abundances of warmer water species). This regime shift has been attributed to climate change. Plankton provide a link between climate and higher trophic-level organisms, which can forage on large spatial and temporal scales. It is therefore important to understand not only whether climate change affects purely spatial or temporal aspects of plankton dynamics, but also whether it affects spatiotemporal aspects such as metapopulation synchrony. If plankton synchrony is altered, higher trophic-level feeding patterns may be modified. A second motivation for investigating changes in synchrony is that the possibility of such alterations has been examined for few organisms, in spite of the fact that synchrony is ubiquitous and of major importance in ecology. This study uses correlation coefficients and spectral analysis to investigate whether synchrony changed between the periods 1959–1980 and 1989–2010. Twenty-three plankton taxa, sea surface temperature (SST), and wind speed were examined. Results revealed that synchrony in SST and plankton was altered. Changes were idiosyncratic, and were not explained by changes in abundance. Changes in the synchrony of Calanus helgolandicus and Para-pseudocalanus spp appeared to be driven by changes in SST synchrony. This study is one of few to document alterations of synchrony and climate-change impacts on synchrony. We discuss why climate-change impacts on synchrony may well be more common and consequential than previously recognized.
Resumo:
For decades, global climate change has directly and indirectly affected the structure and function of ecosystems. Abrupt changes in biodiversity have been observed in response to linear or sudden modifications to the environment. These abrupt shifts can cause long-term reorganizations within ecosystems, with communities exhibiting new functional responses to environmental factors. Over the last 3 decades, the Gironde estuary in southwest France has experienced 2 abrupt shifts in both the physical and chemical environments and the pelagic community. Rather than describing these shifts and their origins, we focused on the 3 inter-shift periods, describing the structure of the fish community and its relationship with the environment during these periods. We described fish biodiversity using a limited set of descriptors, taking into account both species composition and relative species abundances. Inter-shift ecosystem states were defined based on the relationship between this description and the hydro-physico-chemical variables and climatic indices defining the main features of the environment. This relationship was described using generalized linear mixed models on the entire time series and for each inter-shift period. Our results indicate that (1) the fish community structure has been significantly modified, (2) environmental drivers influencing fish diversity have changed during these 3 periods, and (3) the fish-environment relationships have been modified over time. From this, we conclude a regime shift has occurred in the Gironde estuary. We also highlight that anthropogenic influences have increased, which re-emphasizes the importance of local management in maintaining fish diversity and associated goods and services within the context of climate change.
Resumo:
Dissertação de Mastrado, Gestão de Unidades de Saúde, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Algarve, 2016
Resumo:
The rise of neoliberalism and the experience of several economic crises throughout 1960’s and 70’s have opened the way to question the ability of welfare state to satisfy the basic needs of the societies. Therefore the term “welfare state” left its place to “welfare regime” in which the responsibilities for the well being of the societies are distributed among state, market and families. Following the introduction of this new term, several typologies of welfare regimes are started to be discussed. Esping-Andersen’s (1990) regime typology is considered to be one of the most significant one which covers most of the European countries. On the other hand, it has also led to criticisms for being lack of several aspects. One of them was done by Ferrera (1996), Moreno (2001), Boboli (1997) and Liebfreid (1992), which discusses that the grouping of Mediterranean countries of Europe -Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal- within the conservative regime type. Those authors affirm that Southern European countries have their peculiar features in terms of structure of welfare provision and they form a fourth type which may be called "Mediterranean/ Southern European Regime". At this point, this doctoral thesis carries the discussion one step further and covers a profound research to answer some fundamental questions. Chiefly, clarifying whether it is possible to talk about a coherent grouping between the Mediterranean countries of Southern Europe in terms of their welfare regimes is our first objective. Then by assuming that it has an affirmative response, it is aimed to reflect the characteristics of this grouping. On the other hand, those group features are not static in time and they are sensible to various economic changes...
Resumo:
O presente estudo trata da prática política nos diferentes espaços das monarquias ibéricas na primeira metade do século XVIII. Tendo como objecto de análise principal a correspondência de quatro municípios seleccionados como observatórios (Évora, Córdova, Ouro Preto e Quito), pretende-se conhecer com maior detalhe as variações desta mesma prática em função dos contextos. Partindo da ideia de que o modelo político-administrativo implementado na América seria, na essência, decalcado do peninsular, procura-se aqui entender as mutações resultantes desta transferência. Ao longo deste trabalho defender-se-á a ideia de que, apesar das semelhanças entre o aparelho burocrático metropolitano e americano, a prática política nos territórios extra-europeus revestia-se de um conjunto de especificidades que a diferenciavam de forma clara. Neste sentido, argumenta-se que estas mutações condicionavam igualmente quais seriam os interlocutores das coroas nas diferentes regiões. Ou seja, que uma mesma instância teria, nos territórios ultramarinos e peninsulares, graus de participação nos processos de negociação e articulação política consideravelmente diferentes, algo que de que os municípios são um bom exemplo. Para o efeito serão comparados aspectos como os ritmos da comunicação; o relevo de cada instância na comunicação com a coroa; o perfil dos indivíduos que, nos diferentes territórios, ocupavam os ofícios da malha administrativa; as dinâmicas de especialização de competências ou de concentração de funções num mesmo cargo; a conflitualidade institucional e a existência de iniciativas políticas de cariz supramunicipal; Abstract: This study deals with the political practice in different areas of the Iberian monarchies in the first half of the eighteenth century. The main object of study is the correspondence of four selected municipalities (Évora, Cordoba, Ouro Preto and Quito), and it aims to know in greater detail the variations of this same practice on different contexts. Starting from the idea that the political and administrative model implemented in America would, in essence, be modeled on the peninsular, the intent is to understand the changes resulting from this transfer. Throughout this work we will argue that, despite the similarities between the metropolitan and American bureaucracy, political practice in non-European territories possessed a set of characteristics that were very specific. In this sense, it is argued that these mutations would also determine which would be the interlocutors of the crowns in different regions. That is, if the same instance would, in the overseas and peninsular territories, have different levels of participation in the negotiation and in the political articulation processes, something that municipalities are a good example of. For this purpose, aspects such as the rhythms of communication; the importance of each instance in the correspondence with the crown; the profile of the individuals who, in different territories, occupied the offices of the administrative network; the dynamics of specialization or concentration of functions in the same position; the institutional conflicts and the existence of supramunicipal initiatives will be compared.
Comparison of Regime Switching, Probit and Logit Models in Dating and Forecasting US Business Cycles