Modelling tree population dynamics at the alpine and boreal tree-line ecotones in response to climate and land-use change

Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.

Enhanced recovery after surgery: are we ready, and can we afford not to implement these pathways for patients undergoing radical cystectomy?

Enhanced recovery after surgery (ERAS) for radical cystectomy seems logical, but our study has shown a paucity in the level of clinical evidence. As part of the ERAS Society, we welcome global collaboration to collect evidence that will improve patient outcomes.

Fatigue shifts and scatters heart rate variability in elite endurance athletes

PURPOSE: This longitudinal study aimed at comparing heart rate variability (HRV) in elite athletes identified either in 'fatigue' or in 'no-fatigue' state in 'real life' conditions. METHODS: 57 elite Nordic-skiers were surveyed over 4 years. R-R intervals were recorded supine (SU) and standing (ST). A fatigue state was quoted with a validated questionnaire. A multilevel linear regression model was used to analyze relationships between heart rate (HR) and HRV descriptors [total spectral power (TP), power in low (LF) and high frequency (HF) ranges expressed in ms(2) and normalized units (nu)] and the status without and with fatigue. The variables not distributed normally were transformed by taking their common logarithm (log10). RESULTS: 172 trials were identified as in a 'fatigue' and 891 as in 'no-fatigue' state. All supine HR and HRV parameters (Beta+/-SE) were significantly different (P<0.0001) between 'fatigue' and 'no-fatigue': HRSU (+6.27+/-0.61 bpm), logTPSU (-0.36+/-0.04), logLFSU (-0.27+/-0.04), logHFSU (-0.46+/-0.05), logLF/HFSU (+0.19+/-0.03), HFSU(nu) (-9.55+/-1.33). Differences were also significant (P<0.0001) in standing: HRST (+8.83+/-0.89), logTPST (-0.28+/-0.03), logLFST (-0.29+/-0.03), logHFST (-0.32+/-0.04). Also, intra-individual variance of HRV parameters was larger (P<0.05) in the 'fatigue' state (logTPSU: 0.26 vs. 0.07, logLFSU: 0.28 vs. 0.11, logHFSU: 0.32 vs. 0.08, logTPST: 0.13 vs. 0.07, logLFST: 0.16 vs. 0.07, logHFST: 0.25 vs. 0.14). CONCLUSION: HRV was significantly lower in 'fatigue' vs. 'no-fatigue' but accompanied with larger intra-individual variance of HRV parameters in 'fatigue'. The broader intra-individual variance of HRV parameters might encompass different changes from no-fatigue state, possibly reflecting different fatigue-induced alterations of HRV pattern.

Response to comment on "Climatic niche shifts are rare among terrestrial plant invaders"

Webber et al. take a critical view of our findings that niche expansions are rare in plant invaders, arguing mainly that we did not include nonanalog climates in our analyses. Yet, their concerns include misunderstandings and go beyond the scope of our study, which was purposely restricted to analog climates. We further explain why our results remain robust to other factors of niche dynamics in the native range. We conclude that the implications of our findings remain valid for projections of niche models in analog climates and that projections in nonanalog climates should be undertaken with care.

Origin of the spectral shifts among the early intermediates of the rhodopsin photocycle.

A combined strategy based on the computation of absorption energies, using the ZINDO/S semiempirical method, for a statistically relevant number of thermally sampled configurations extracted from QM/MM trajectories is used to establish a one-to-one correspondence between the structures of the different early intermediates (dark, batho, BSI, lumi) involved in the initial steps of the rhodopsin photoactivation mechanism and their optical spectra. A systematic analysis of the results based on a correlation-based feature selection algorithm shows that the origin of the color shifts among these intermediates can be mainly ascribed to alterations in intrinsic properties of the chromophore structure, which are tuned by several residues located in the protein binding pocket. In addition to the expected electrostatic and dipolar effects caused by the charged residues (Glu113, Glu181) and to strong hydrogen bonding with Glu113, other interactions such as π-stacking with Ala117 and Thr118 backbone atoms, van der Waals contacts with Gly114 and Ala292, and CH/π weak interactions with Tyr268, Ala117, Thr118, and Ser186 side chains are found to make non-negligible contributions to the modulation of the color tuning among the different rhodopsin photointermediates.

Residence time, expansion toward the equator in the invaded range and native range size matter to climatic niche shifts in non-native species

Aim Identifying climatic niche shifts and their drivers is important to accurately predict the risk of biological invasions. The niches of non-native plants and birds have recently been assessed in large-scale multi-species studies, but such large-scale tests are lacking for non-native reptiles and amphibians (herpetofauna). Furthermore, little is known about the factors contributing to niche shifts when they occur. Based on the occurrence of 71 reptile and amphibian species, we compared native and non-native realized niches in 101 invaded ranges at a worldwide scale and identified the factors that affect niche shifts. Location The world except the Antarctic. Methods We assessed climatic niche dynamics in a gridded environmental space allowing the quantification of niche overlap and expansion into climatic conditions not colonized by the species in their native range. We analyzed the factors affecting niche shifts using a model averaging approach based on generalized linear mixed-effects models. Results Approximately 57% of the invaded ranges (51% for amphibians and 61% for reptiles) showed niche shifts (≥10% expansion in the realized climatic niche). Island endemics, species introduced to Oceania and invaded ranges outside the native biogeographic realm showed a higher proportion of niche shifts. Niche shifts were more likely for species that had smaller native range sizes, were introduced earlier into a new range or invaded areas located at lower latitudes than the native range. Main conclusions The proportion of niche shifts for non-native herpetofauna was higher than those for Holarctic non-native plants and European non-native birds. The 'climate matching hypothesis' should be used with caution for species shifting their niche because it could underestimate the risk of their establishment.

International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) Consensus Conference on Handling and Staging of Radical Prostatectomy Specimens. Working group 4: seminal vesicles and lymph nodes.

The 2009 International Society of Urological Pathology Consensus Conference in Boston made recommendations regarding the standardization of pathology reporting of radical prostatectomy specimens. Issues relating to the infiltration of tumor into the seminal vesicles and regional lymph nodes were coordinated by working group 4. There was a consensus that complete blocking of the seminal vesicles was not necessary, although sampling of the junction of the seminal vesicles and prostate was mandatory. There was consensus that sampling of the vas deferens margins was not obligatory. There was also consensus that muscular wall invasion of the extraprostatic seminal vesicle only should be regarded as seminal vesicle invasion. Categorization into types of seminal vesicle spread was agreed by consensus to be not necessary. For examination of lymph nodes, there was consensus that special techniques such as frozen sectioning were of use only in high-risk cases. There was no consensus on the optimal sampling method for pelvic lymph node dissection specimens, although there was consensus that all lymph nodes should be completely blocked as a minimum. There was also a consensus that a count of the number of lymph nodes harvested should be attempted. In view of recent evidence, there was consensus that the diameter of the largest lymph node metastasis should be measured. These consensus decisions will hopefully clarify the difficult areas of pathological assessment in radical prostatectomy evaluation and improve the concordance of research series to allow more accurate assessment of patient prognosis.

Issue review : general fund revenue transfers and appropriations shifts.

This issue review examines how non-general-fund revenue sources have been used to help balance the general fund budget over the last ten years. The report includes examination of non-general-fund appropriations to fund agency operations and programs traditionally funded from the general fund. This document also reviews revenues that have been shifted from a non-general-fund source to the general fund.

Phylogenetics of Olea (Oleaceae) based on plastid and nuclear ribosomal DNA sequences: tertiary climatic shifts and lineage differentiation times.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The genus Olea (Oleaceae) includes approx. 40 taxa of evergreen shrubs and trees classified in three subgenera, Olea, Paniculatae and Tetrapilus, the first of which has two sections (Olea and Ligustroides). Olive trees (the O. europaea complex) have been the subject of intensive research, whereas little is known about the phylogenetic relationships among the other species. To clarify the biogeographical history of this group, a molecular analysis of Olea and related genera of Oleaceae is thus necessary. METHODS: A phylogeny was built of Olea and related genera based on sequences of the nuclear ribosomal internal transcribed spacer-1 and four plastid regions. Lineage divergence and the evolution of abaxial peltate scales, the latter character linked to drought adaptation, were dated using a Bayesian method. KEY RESULTS: Olea is polyphyletic, with O. ambrensis and subgenus Tetrapilus not sharing a most recent common ancestor with the main Olea clade. Partial incongruence between nuclear and plastid phylogenetic reconstructions suggests a reticulation process in the evolution of subgenus Olea. Estimates of divergence times for major groups of Olea during the Tertiary were obtained. CONCLUSIONS: This study indicates the necessity of revising current taxonomic boundaries in Olea. The results also suggest that main lines of evolution were promoted by major Tertiary climatic shifts: (1) the split between subgenera Olea and Paniculatae appears to have taken place at the Miocene-Oligocene boundary; (2) the separation of sections Ligustroides and Olea may have occurred during the Early Miocene following the Mi-1 glaciation; and (3) the diversification within these sections (and the origin of dense abaxial indumentum in section Olea) was concomitant with the aridification of Africa in the Late Miocene.

The interplay between radiation and the immune system in the field of post-radical pneumonitis and fibrosis and why it is important to understand it.

A discussion on the importance and pathogenesis of radiation-induced pneumonitis and fibrosis is provided, with a special focus on the role of the immune system. The need to understand this interaction is highlighted in view of emerging therapeutic potential.

Hidradenitis suppurativa of the groin treated by radical excision and defect closure by medial thigh lift: aesthetic surgery meets reconstructive surgery.

INTRODUCTION: Hidradenitis suppurativa of the groin is a chronic, relapsing inflammatory disease of the skin and subcutaneous tissues. Radical surgical excision is the treatment of choice. Often split-skin grafting or wound healing by secondary intention are used for defect closure, sometimes with disfiguring results. We describe our experience with radical excision of localised inguinal hidradenitis suppurativa and immediate defect closure with a medial thigh lift. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Our hospital database was searched for all patients presenting to our institution for surgical treatment of hidradenitis suppurativa between 2001 and 2006. Only patients with hidradenitis confined to the groin were included. Exclusion criteria were simple abscess incisions, recurrence after previous grafting or flap surgery and extension of the disease outside the groin and presence of clinical signs of infection at the time of surgery. We documented patient demographics, sizes of defects, complications, time of follow-up, recurrences and patient satisfaction. RESULTS: A total of 8 patients with localised inguinal hidradenitis suppurativa were identified and 15 thigh lifts were performed. Defect size assessed on pathologic examination of the excised specimens averaged 15.9 cm x 4.3 cm x 1.3 cm (length x width x depth). All wounds but one healed primarily. Functional and aesthetic results were satisfactory. No major complications and no irritations of the genital area were observed. No recurrences were observed either. CONCLUSION: We propose the medial thigh lift to be considered for immediate defect closure after radical excision of localised inguinal hidradenitis suppurativa provided that no perifocal signs of infection are present after debridement.

The class basis of the cleavage between the New Left and the radical right: An analysis for Austria, Denmark, Norway and Switzerland

This chapter argues that the electoral competition between the New Left and the Radical Right is best understood as a cultural divide anchored in different class constituencies. Based on individual-level data from the European Social Survey, we analyze the links between voters' class position, their economic and cultural preferences and their party choice for four small and affluent European countries. We find a striking similarity in the class pattern across countries. Everywhere, the New Left attracts disproportionate support from socio-cultural professionals and presents a clear-cut middle-class profile, whereas the Radical Right is most successful among production and service workers and receives least support from professionals. In general, the Radical Right depends on the votes of lowereducated men and older citizens and has turned into a new type of working-class party. However, its success within the working-class is not due to economic, but to cultural issues. The voters of the Radical Right collide with those of the New Left over a cultural conflict of identity and community - and not over questions of redistribution. A full-grown cleavage has thus emerged in the four countries under study, separating a libertarian-universalistic pole from an authoritarian-communitarian pole and going along with a process of class realignment.

Adjuvant cisplatin-based combined chemotherapy for lymph node (LN)-positive urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB) after radical cystectomy (RC): a retrospective international study of >1500 patients.

OBJECTIVE: To compare outcomes of patients with lymph node (LN)-positive urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB) treated with or without cisplatin-based combined adjuvant chemotherapy (AC) after radical cystectomy (RC). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We retrospectively analysed 1523 patients with LN-positive UCB, who underwent RC with bilateral pelvic LN dissection. All patients had no evidence of disease after RC. AC was administered within 3 months. Competing-risks models were applied to compare UCB-related mortality. RESULTS: Of the 1523 patients, 874 (57.4%) received AC. The cumulative 1-, 2- and 5-year UCB-related mortality rates for all patients were 16%, 36% and 56%, respectively. Administration of AC was associated with an 18% relative reduction in the risk of UCB-related death (subhazard ratio 0.82, P = 0.005). The absolute reduction in mortality was 3.5% at 5 years. The positive effect of AC was detectable in patients aged ≤70 years, in women, in pT3-4 disease, and in those with a higher LN density and lymphovascular invasion. This study is limited by its retrospective and non-randomised design, selection bias, the absence of central pathological review and lack in standardisation of LN dissection and cisplatin-based protocols. CONCLUSION: AC seems to reduce UCB-related mortality in patients with LN-positive UCB after RC. Younger patients, women and those with high-risk features such as pT3-4 disease, a higher LN density and lymphovascular invasion appear to benefit most. Appropriately powered prospective randomised trials are necessary to confirm these findings.

Caracterização físico-química de polpas de frutos da Amazônia e sua correlação com a atividade anti-radical livre

Características físico-químicas (cor, pH, acidez total titulável, sólidos solúveis totais, conteúdo de lipídios e umidade) e níveis de compostos bioativos (ácido ascórbico, fenólicos totais) foram determinados em quinze amostras de polpas de frutos procedentes da região Amazônica (abiu, acerola, açaí, araçá-boi, bacaba, bacuri, buriti, cajá, cajarana, caju, cupuaçu, graviola, murici, noni e tamarindo). A atividade de radicais livres foi avaliada pelo método de ABTS. Algumas polpas apresentaram alta potencialidade antioxidante, associada com a atividade antirradicais livres obtida e os conteúdos dos componentes bioativos como compostos fenólicos e ácido ascórbico, destacando-se acerola e acaí. O conteúdo total de compostos fenólicos foi correlacionado à capacidade antioxidante das polpas.