Applying Bayesian hierarchical models to examine motorcycle crashes at signalized intersections

Motorcycles are overrepresented in road traffic crashes and particularly vulnerable at signalized intersections. The objective of this study is to identify causal factors affecting the motorcycle crashes at both four-legged and T signalized intersections. Treating the data in time-series cross-section panels, this study explores different Hierarchical Poisson models and found that the model allowing autoregressive lag 1 dependent specification in the error term is the most suitable. Results show that the number of lanes at the four-legged signalized intersections significantly increases motorcycle crashes largely because of the higher exposure resulting from higher motorcycle accumulation at the stop line. Furthermore, the presence of a wide median and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at major roadways of four-legged intersections exacerbate this potential hazard. For T signalized intersections, the presence of exclusive right-turn lane at both major and minor roadways and an uncontrolled left-turn lane at major roadways of T intersections increases motorcycle crashes. Motorcycle crashes increase on high-speed roadways because they are more vulnerable and less likely to react in time during conflicts. The presence of red light cameras reduces motorcycle crashes significantly for both four-legged and T intersections. With the red-light camera, motorcycles are less exposed to conflicts because it is observed that they are more disciplined in queuing at the stop line and less likely to jump start at the start of green.

Evolutionary placement of continuously operating reference stations of network Real-Time Kinematic

Network RTK (Real-Time Kinematic) is a technology that is based on GPS (Global Positioning System) or more generally on GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) observations to achieve centimeter-level accuracy positioning in real time. It is enabled by a network of Continuously Operating Reference Stations (CORS). CORS placement is an important problem in the design of network RTK as it directly affects not only the installation and running costs of the network RTK, but also the Quality of Service (QoS) provided by the network RTK. In our preliminary research on the CORS placement, we proposed a polynomial heuristic algorithm for a so-called location-based CORS placement problem. From a computational point of view, the location-based CORS placement is a largescale combinatorial optimization problem. Thus, although the heuristic algorithm is efficient in computation time it may not be able to find an optimal or near optimal solution. Aiming at improving the quality of solutions, this paper proposes a repairing genetic algorithm (RGA) for the location-based CORS placement problem. The RGA has been implemented and compared to the heuristic algorithm by experiments. Experimental results have shown that the RGA produces better quality of solutions than the heuristic algorithm.

Analytical solutions for the multi-term time-space Caputo-Riesz fractional advection-diffusion equations on a finite domain

Generalized fractional partial differential equations have now found wide application for describing important physical phenomena, such as subdiffusive and superdiffusive processes. However, studies of generalized multi-term time and space fractional partial differential equations are still under development. In this paper, the multi-term time-space Caputo-Riesz fractional advection diffusion equations (MT-TSCR-FADE) with Dirichlet nonhomogeneous boundary conditions are considered. The multi-term time-fractional derivatives are defined in the Caputo sense, whose orders belong to the intervals [0, 1], [1, 2] and [0, 2], respectively. These are called respectively the multi-term time-fractional diffusion terms, the multi-term time-fractional wave terms and the multi-term time-fractional mixed diffusion-wave terms. The space fractional derivatives are defined as Riesz fractional derivatives. Analytical solutions of three types of the MT-TSCR-FADE are derived with Dirichlet boundary conditions. By using Luchko's Theorem (Acta Math. Vietnam., 1999), we proposed some new techniques, such as a spectral representation of the fractional Laplacian operator and the equivalent relationship between fractional Laplacian operator and Riesz fractional derivative, that enabled the derivation of the analytical solutions for the multi-term time-space Caputo-Riesz fractional advection-diffusion equations. © 2012.

Numerical techniques for the variable order time fractional diffusion equation

In this paper we consider the variable order time fractional diffusion equation. We adopt the Coimbra variable order (VO) time fractional operator, which defines a consistent method for VO differentiation of physical variables. The Coimbra variable order fractional operator also can be viewed as a Caputo-type definition. Although this definition is the most appropriate definition having fundamental characteristics that are desirable for physical modeling, numerical methods for fractional partial differential equations using this definition have not yet appeared in the literature. Here an approximate scheme is first proposed. The stability, convergence and solvability of this numerical scheme are discussed via the technique of Fourier analysis. Numerical examples are provided to show that the numerical method is computationally efficient. Crown Copyright © 2012 Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Analytical solutions for the multi-term time-fractional diffusion-wave/diffusion equations in a finite domain

Multi-term time-fractional differential equations have been used for describing important physical phenomena. However, studies of the multi-term time-fractional partial differential equations with three kinds of nonhomogeneous boundary conditions are still limited. In this paper, a method of separating variables is used to solve the multi-term time-fractional diffusion-wave equation and the multi-term time-fractional diffusion equation in a finite domain. In the two equations, the time-fractional derivative is defined in the Caputo sense. We discuss and derive the analytical solutions of the two equations with three kinds of nonhomogeneous boundary conditions, namely, Dirichlet, Neumann and Robin conditions, respectively.

Practical stability of approximating discrete-time filters with respect to model mismatch

This paper establishes practical stability results for an important range of approximate discrete-time filtering problems involving mismatch between the true system and the approximating filter model. Practical stability is established in the sense of an asymptotic bound on the amount of bias introduced by the model approximation. Our analysis applies to a wide range of estimation problems and justifies the common practice of approximating intractable infinite dimensional nonlinear filters by simpler computationally tractable filters.

Effects of extreme temperatures on years of life lost for cardiovascular deaths : a time series study in Brisbane, Australia

Background: Extreme temperatures are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths. Previous studies have investigated the relative CVD mortality risk of temperature, but this risk is heavily influenced by deaths in frail elderly persons. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures we estimated their effects on years of life lost due to CVD. Methods and Results: The data were daily observations on weather and CVD mortality for Brisbane, Australia between 1996 and 2004. We estimated the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to CVD, after adjusting for trend, season, day of the week, and humidity. To examine the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature, a distributed lag non-linear model was used. The model’s residuals were examined to investigate if there were any added effects due to cold spells and heat waves. The exposure-response curve between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C. The curve had a sharper rise at extremes of heat than of cold. The effect of cold peaked two days after exposure, whereas the greatest effect of heat occurred on the day of exposure. There were significantly added effects of heat waves on years of life lost. Conclusions: Increased years of life lost due to CVD are associated with both cold and hot temperatures. Research on specific interventions is needed to reduce temperature-related years of life lost from CVD deaths.

Encouraging, assisting and time to EAT : improved nutritional intake for older medical patients receiving Protected Mealtimes and/or additional nursing feeding assistance

Background & Aims: Inadequate feeding assistance and mealtime interruptions during hospitalisation may contribute to malnutrition and poor nutritional intake in older people. This study aimed to implement and compare three interventions designed to specifically address mealtime barriers and improve energy intakes of medical inpatients aged ≥65 years. Methods: Pre-post study compared three mealtime assistance interventions: PM: Protected Mealtimes with multidisciplinary education; AIN: additional assistant-in-nursing (AIN) with dedicated meal role; PM+AIN: combined intervention. Dietary intake of 254 patients (pre: n=115, post: n=141; mean age 80±8) was visually estimated on a single day in the first week of hospitalisation and compared with estimated energy requirements. Assistance activities were observed and recorded. Results: Mealtime assistance levels significantly increased in all interventions (p<0.01). Post-intervention participants were more likely to achieve adequate energy intake (OR=3.4, p=0.01), with no difference noted between interventions (p=0.29). Patients with cognitive impairment or feeding dependency appeared to gain substantial benefit from mealtime assistance interventions. Conclusions: Protected Mealtimes and additional AIN assistance (implemented alone or in combination) may produce modest improvements in nutritional intake. Targeted feeding assistance for certain patient groups holds promise; however, alternative strategies are required to address the complex problem of malnutrition in this population.

Nitrous oxide emissions from subtropical horticultural soils : a time series analysis

Time series regression models were used to examine the influence of environmental factors (soil water content and soil temperature) on the emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) from subtropical soils, by taking into account temporal lagged environmental factors, autoregressive processes, and seasonality for three horticultural crops in a subtropical region of Australia. Fluxes of N2O, soil water content, and soil temperature were determined simultaneously on a weekly basis over a 12-month period in South East Queensland. Annual N2O emissions for soils under mango, pineapple, and custard apple were 1590, 1156, and 2038 g N2O-N/ha, respectively, with most emissions attributed to nitrification. The N2O-N emitted from the pineapple and custard apple crops was equivalent to 0.26 and 2.22%, respectively, of the applied mineral N. The change in soil water content was the key variable for describing N2O emissions at the weekly time-scale, with soil temperature at a lag of 1 month having a significant influence on average N2O emissions (averaged) at the monthly time-scale across the three crops. After accounting for soil temperature and soil water content, both the weekly and monthly time series regression models exhibited significant autocorrelation at lags of 1–2 weeks and 1–2 months, and significant seasonality for weekly N2O emissions for mango crop and for monthly N2O emissions for mango and custard apple crops in this location over this time-frame. Time series regression models can explain a higher percentage of the temporal variation of N2O emission compared with simple regression models using soil temperature and soil water content as drivers. Taking into account seasonal variability and temporal persistence in N2O emissions associated with soil water content and soil temperature may lead to a reduction in the uncertainty surrounding estimates of N2O emissions based on limited sampling effort.

Critical timescales and time intervals for coupled linear processes

In 1991, McNabb introduced the concept of mean action time (MAT) as a finite measure of the time required for a diffusive process to effectively reach steady state. Although this concept was initially adopted by others within the Australian and New Zealand applied mathematics community, it appears to have had little use outside this region until very recently, when in 2010 Berezhkovskii and coworkers rediscovered the concept of MAT in their study of morphogen gradient formation. All previous work in this area has been limited to studying single–species differential equations, such as the linear advection–diffusion–reaction equation. Here we generalise the concept of MAT by showing how the theory can be applied to coupled linear processes. We begin by studying coupled ordinary differential equations and extend our approach to coupled partial differential equations. Our new results have broad applications including the analysis of models describing coupled chemical decay and cell differentiation processes, amongst others.

Efficient real-time face detection for high resolution surveillance applications

This paper presents an efficient face detection method suitable for real-time surveillance applications. Improved efficiency is achieved by constraining the search window of an AdaBoost face detector to pre-selected regions. Firstly, the proposed method takes a sparse grid of sample pixels from the image to reduce whole image scan time. A fusion of foreground segmentation and skin colour segmentation is then used to select candidate face regions. Finally, a classifier-based face detector is applied only to selected regions to verify the presence of a face (the Viola-Jones detector is used in this paper). The proposed system is evaluated using 640 x 480 pixels test images and compared with other relevant methods. Experimental results show that the proposed method reduces the detection time to 42 ms, where the Viola-Jones detector alone requires 565 ms (on a desktop processor). This improvement makes the face detector suitable for real-time applications. Furthermore, the proposed method requires 50% of the computation time of the best competing method, while reducing the false positive rate by 3.2% and maintaining the same hit rate.

A reliable real-time transport protocol for control systems over wireless networks

Deploying networked control systems (NCSs) over wireless networks is becoming more and more popular. However, the widely-used transport layer protocols, Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) and User Datagram Protocol (UDP), are not designed for real-time applications. Therefore, they may not be suitable for many NCS application scenarios because of their limitations on reliability and/or delay performance, which real-control systems concern. Considering a typical type of NCSs with periodic and sporadic real-time traffic, this paper proposes a highly reliable transport layer protocol featuring a packet loss-sensitive retransmission mechanism and a prioritized transmission mechanism. The packet loss-sensitive retransmission mechanism is designed to improve the reliability of all traffic flows. And the prioritized transmission mechanism offers differentiated services for periodic and sporadic flows. Simulation results show that the proposed protocol has better reliability than UDP and improved delay performance than TCP over wireless networks, particularly when channel errors and congestions occur.

Bicyclists overestimate their own night-time conspicuity and underestimate the benefits of retroreflective markers on the moveable joints

Conspicuity limitations make bicycling at night dangerous. This experiment quantified bicyclists’ estimates of the distance at which approaching drivers would first recognize them. Twenty five participants (including 13 bicyclists who rode at least once per week, and 12 who rode once per month or less) cycled in place on a closed-road circuit at night-time and indicated when they were confident that an approaching driver would first recognize that a bicyclist was present. Participants wore black clothing alone or together with a fluorescent bicycling vest, a fluorescent bicycling vest with additional retroreflective tape, or the fluorescent retroreflective vest plus ankle and knee reflectors in a modified ‘biomotion’ configuration. The bicycle had a light mounted on the handlebars which was either static, flashing or off. Participants judged that black clothing made them least visible, retroreflective strips on the legs in addition to a retroreflective vest made them most visible and that adding retroreflective materials to a fluorescent vest provides no conspicuity benefits. Flashing bicycle lights were associated with higher conspicuity than static lights. Additionally, occasional bicyclists judged themselves to be more visible than did frequent bicyclists. Overall, bicyclists overestimated their conspicuity compared to previously collected recognition distances and underestimated the conspicuity benefits of retroreflective markings on their ankles and knees. Participants mistakenly judged that a fluorescent vest that did not include retroreflective material would enhance their night-time conspicuity. These findings suggest that bicyclists have dangerous misconceptions concerning the magnitude of the night-time conspicuity problem and the potential value of conspicuity treatments.

Diurnal temperature range and childhood asthma : a time-series study

BACKGROUND: Hot and cold temperatures have been associated with childhood asthma. However, the relationship between daily temperature variation and childhood asthma is not well understood. This study aimed to examine the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and childhood asthma. METHODS: A Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationship between DTR and emergency department admissions for childhood asthma in Brisbane, from January 1st 2003 to December 31st 2009. RESULTS: There was a statistically significant relationship between DTR and childhood asthma. The DTR effect on childhood asthma increased above a DTR of 10[degree sign]C. The effect of DTR on childhood asthma was the greatest for lag 0--9 days, with a 31% (95% confidence interval: 11% -- 58%) increase of emergency department admissions per 5[degree sign]C increment of DTR. Male children and children aged 5--9 years appeared to be more vulnerable to the DTR effect than others. CONCLUSIONS: Large DTR may trigger childhood asthma. Future measures to control and prevent childhood asthma should include taking temperature variability into account. More protective measures should be taken after a day of DTR above10[degree sign]C.

Real-time risk monitoring in business processes : a sensor-based approach

This article proposes an approach for real-time monitoring of risks in executable business process models. The approach considers risks in all phases of the business process management lifecycle, from process design, where risks are defined on top of process models, through to process diagnosis, where risks are detected during process execution. The approach has been realized via a distributed, sensor-based architecture. At design-time, sensors are defined to specify risk conditions which when fulfilled, are a likely indicator of negative process states (faults) to eventuate. Both historical and current process execution data can be used to compose such conditions. At run-time, each sensor independently notifies a sensor manager when a risk is detected. In turn, the sensor manager interacts with the monitoring component of a business process management system to prompt the results to process administrators who may take remedial actions. The proposed architecture has been implemented on top of the YAWL system, and evaluated through performance measurements and usability tests with students. The results show that risk conditions can be computed efficiently and that the approach is perceived as useful by the participants in the tests.