Contribution to Real-Time Estimation of Crop Phenological States in a Dynamical Framework Based on NDVI Time Series: Data Fusion With SAR and Temperature

In this study, a methodology based in a dynamical framework is proposed to incorporate additional sources of information to normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series of agricultural observations for a phenological state estimation application. The proposed implementation is based on the particle filter (PF) scheme that is able to integrate multiple sources of data. Moreover, the dynamics-led design is able to conduct real-time (online) estimations, i.e., without requiring to wait until the end of the campaign. The evaluation of the algorithm is performed by estimating the phenological states over a set of rice fields in Seville (SW, Spain). A Landsat-5/7 NDVI series of images is complemented with two distinct sources of information: SAR images from the TerraSAR-X satellite and air temperature information from a ground-based station. An improvement in the overall estimation accuracy is obtained, especially when the time series of NDVI data is incomplete. Evaluations on the sensitivity to different development intervals and on the mitigation of discontinuities of the time series are also addressed in this work, demonstrating the benefits of this data fusion approach based on the dynamic systems.

Fuel consumption study. Urban traffic control system (UTCS) software support project. Final report.

Federal Energy Administration, Office of Transportation Policy and Research, Washington, D.C.

Integrated project evaluation and selection using multiple-attribute decision-making technique

The evaluation and selection of industrial projects before investment decision is customarily done using marketing, technical and financial information. Subsequently, environmental impact assessment and social impact assessment are carried out mainly to satisfy the statutory agencies. Because of stricter environment regulations in developed and developing countries, quite often impact assessment suggests alternate sites, technologies, designs, and implementation methods as mitigating measures. This causes considerable delay to complete project feasibility analysis and selection as complete analysis requires to be taken up again and again till the statutory regulatory authority approves the project. Moreover, project analysis through above process often results sub-optimal project as financial analysis may eliminate better options, as more environment friendly alternative will always be cost intensive. In this circumstance, this study proposes a decision support system, which analyses projects with respect to market, technicalities, and social and environmental impact in an integrated framework using analytic hierarchy process, a multiple-attribute decision-making technique. This not only reduces duration of project evaluation and selection, but also helps select optimal project for the organization for sustainable development. The entire methodology has been applied to a cross-country oil pipeline project in India and its effectiveness has been demonstrated. © 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decision support system for project selection

The evaluation and selection of industrial projects before investment decision is customarily done using marketing, technical, and financial information. Subsequently, environmental impact assessment and social impact assessment are carried out mainly to satisfy the statutory agencies. Because of stricter environment regulations in developed and developing countries, quite often impact assessment suggests alternate sites, technologies, designs, and implementation methods as mitigating measures. This causes considerable delay to complete project feasibility analysis and selection as complete analysis requires to be taken up again and again until the statutory regulatory authority approves the project. Moreover, project analysis through the above process often results in suboptimal projects as financial analysis may eliminate better options as more environment friendly alternative will always be cost intensive. In this circumstance, this study proposes a decision support system which analyses projects with respect to market, technicalities, and social and environmental impact in an integrated framework using analytic hierarchy process, a multiple attribute decision-making technique. This not only reduces duration of project evaluation and selection, but also helps select an optimal project for the organization for sustainable development. The entire methodology has been applied to a cross-country oil pipeline project in India and its effectiveness has been demonstrated. © 2008, IGI Global.

Estimation of transportation battery second life for use in electricity grid systems

This paper presents research from part of a larger project focusing on the potential development of commercial opportunities for the reuse of batteries on the electricity grid system, subsequent to their primary use in low and ultra-low carbon vehicles, and investigating the life cycle issues surrounding the batteries. The work has three main areas; examination of electric vehicle fleet data in detail to investigate usage in first life. Batteries that have passed through a battery recycler at the end of their first life have been tested within the laboratory to confirm the general assumption that remaining capacity of 80% after use in transportation is a reasonable assumption as a basis for second-life applications. The third aspect of the paper is an investigation of the equivalent usage for three different second-life applications based on connection to the electricity grid. Additionally, the paper estimates the time to cell failure of the batteries within their second-life application to estimate lifespan for use within commercial investigations. © 2014 IEEE.

Reliability estimation of second life battery system power electronic topologies for grid frequency response applications

This paper is part of a project which aims to research the opportunities for the re-use of batteries after their primary use in low and ultra low carbon vehicles on the electricity grid system. One potential revenue stream is to provide primary/secondary/high frequency response to National Grid through market mechanisms via DNO's or Energy service providers. Some commercial battery energy storage systems (BESS) already exist on the grid system, but these tend to use costly new or high performance batteries. Second life batteries should be available at lower cost than new batteries but reliability becomes an important issue as individual batteries may suffer from degraded performance or failure. Therefore converter topology design could be used to influence the overall system reliability. A detailed reliability calculation of different single phase battery-to-grid converter interfacing schemes is presented. A suitable converter topology for robust and reliable BESS is recommended.

Pulse width modulation (PWM) method for power components estimation in power meters

The scope of this paper is to present the Pulse Width Modulation (PWM) based method for Active Power (AP) and Reactive Power (RP) measurements as can be applied in Power Meters. Necessarily, the main aim of the material presented is a twofold, first to present a realization methodology of the proposed algorithm, and second to verify the algorithm’s robustness and validity. The method takes advantage of the fact that frequencies present in a power line are of a specific fundamental frequency range (a range centred on the 50 Hz or 60 Hz) and that in case of the presence of harmonics the frequencies of those dominating in the power line spectrum can be specified on the basis of the fundamental. In contrast to a number of existing methods a time delay or shifting of the input signal is not required by the method presented and the time delay by n/2 of the Current signal with respect to the Voltage signal required by many of the existing measurement techniques, does not apply in the case of the PWM method as well.

Improving the predictability of time series by chaotic parameter estimation

Limited literature regarding parameter estimation of dynamic systems has been identified as the central-most reason for not having parametric bounds in chaotic time series. However, literature suggests that a chaotic system displays a sensitive dependence on initial conditions, and our study reveals that the behavior of chaotic system: is also sensitive to changes in parameter values. Therefore, parameter estimation technique could make it possible to establish parametric bounds on a nonlinear dynamic system underlying a given time series, which in turn can improve predictability. By extracting the relationship between parametric bounds and predictability, we implemented chaos-based models for improving prediction in time series. ^ This study describes work done to establish bounds on a set of unknown parameters. Our research results reveal that by establishing parametric bounds, it is possible to improve the predictability of any time series, although the dynamics or the mathematical model of that series is not known apriori. In our attempt to improve the predictability of various time series, we have established the bounds for a set of unknown parameters. These are: (i) the embedding dimension to unfold a set of observation in the phase space, (ii) the time delay to use for a series, (iii) the number of neighborhood points to use for avoiding detection of false neighborhood and, (iv) the local polynomial to build numerical interpolation functions from one region to another. Using these bounds, we are able to get better predictability in chaotic time series than previously reported. In addition, the developments of this dissertation can establish a theoretical framework to investigate predictability in time series from the system-dynamics point of view. ^ In closing, our procedure significantly reduces the computer resource usage, as the search method is refined and efficient. Finally, the uniqueness of our method lies in its ability to extract chaotic dynamics inherent in non-linear time series by observing its values. ^

Estimation and prediction of average vehicle occupancies using traffic accident records

As congestion management strategies begin to put more emphasis on person trips than vehicle trips, the need for vehicle occupancy data has become more critical. The traditional methods of collecting these data include the roadside windshield method and the carousel method. These methods are labor-intensive and expensive. An alternative to these traditional methods is to make use of the vehicle occupancy information in traffic accident records. This method is cost effective and may provide better spatial and temporal coverage than the traditional methods. However, this method is subject to potential biases resulting from under- and over-involvement of certain population sectors and certain types of accidents in traffic accident records. In this dissertation, three such potential biases, i.e., accident severity, driver’s age, and driver’s gender, were investigated and the corresponding bias factors were developed as needed. The results show that although multi-occupant vehicles are involved in higher percentages of severe accidents than are single-occupant vehicles, multi-occupant vehicles in the whole accident vehicle population were not overrepresented in the accident database. On the other hand, a significant difference was found between the distributions of the ages and genders of drivers involved in accidents and those of the general driving population. An information system that incorporates adjustments for the potential biases was developed to estimate the average vehicle occupancies (AVOs) for different types of roadways on the Florida state roadway system. A reasonableness check of the results from the system shows AVO estimates that are highly consistent with expectations. In addition, comparisons of AVOs from accident data with the field estimates show that the two data sources produce relatively consistent results. While accident records can be used to obtain the historical AVO trends and field data can be used to estimate the current AVOs, no known methods have been developed to project future AVOs. Four regression models for the purpose of predicting weekday AVOs on different levels of geographic areas and roadway types were developed as part of this dissertation. The models show that such socioeconomic factors as income, vehicle ownership, and employment have a significant impact on AVOs.

Freeway travel time estimation and prediction using dynamic neural networks

Providing transportation system operators and travelers with accurate travel time information allows them to make more informed decisions, yielding benefits for individual travelers and for the entire transportation system. Most existing advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) and advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) use instantaneous travel time values estimated based on the current measurements, assuming that traffic conditions remain constant in the near future. For more effective applications, it has been proposed that ATIS and ATMS should use travel times predicted for short-term future conditions rather than instantaneous travel times measured or estimated for current conditions. ^ This dissertation research investigates short-term freeway travel time prediction using Dynamic Neural Networks (DNN) based on traffic detector data collected by radar traffic detectors installed along a freeway corridor. DNN comprises a class of neural networks that are particularly suitable for predicting variables like travel time, but has not been adequately investigated for this purpose. Before this investigation, it was necessary to identifying methods for data imputation to account for missing data usually encountered when collecting data using traffic detectors. It was also necessary to identify a method to estimate the travel time on the freeway corridor based on data collected using point traffic detectors. A new travel time estimation method referred to as the Piecewise Constant Acceleration Based (PCAB) method was developed and compared with other methods reported in the literatures. The results show that one of the simple travel time estimation methods (the average speed method) can work as well as the PCAB method, and both of them out-perform other methods. This study also compared the travel time prediction performance of three different DNN topologies with different memory setups. The results show that one DNN topology (the time-delay neural networks) out-performs the other two DNN topologies for the investigated prediction problem. This topology also performs slightly better than the simple multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network topology that has been used in a number of previous studies for travel time prediction.^

Improving Analytical Travel Time Estimation for Transportation Planning Models

This dissertation aimed to improve travel time estimation for the purpose of transportation planning by developing a travel time estimation method that incorporates the effects of signal timing plans, which were difficult to consider in planning models. For this purpose, an analytical model has been developed. The model parameters were calibrated based on data from CORSIM microscopic simulation, with signal timing plans optimized using the TRANSYT-7F software. Independent variables in the model are link length, free-flow speed, and traffic volumes from the competing turning movements. The developed model has three advantages compared to traditional link-based or node-based models. First, the model considers the influence of signal timing plans for a variety of traffic volume combinations without requiring signal timing information as input. Second, the model describes the non-uniform spatial distribution of delay along a link, this being able to estimate the impacts of queues at different upstream locations of an intersection and attribute delays to a subject link and upstream link. Third, the model shows promise of improving the accuracy of travel time prediction. The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of the model is 13% for a set of field data from Minnesota Department of Transportation (MDOT); this is close to the MAPE of uniform delay in the HCM 2000 method (11%). The HCM is the industrial accepted analytical model in the existing literature, but it requires signal timing information as input for calculating delays. The developed model also outperforms the HCM 2000 method for a set of Miami-Dade County data that represent congested traffic conditions, with a MAPE of 29%, compared to 31% of the HCM 2000 method. The advantages of the proposed model make it feasible for application to a large network without the burden of signal timing input, while improving the accuracy of travel time estimation. An assignment model with the developed travel time estimation method has been implemented in a South Florida planning model, which improved assignment results.

Methodology to create cost estimation models for engineer-to-order operations

This research addresses the problem of cost estimation for product development in engineer-to-order (ETO) operations. An ETO operation starts the product development process with a product specification and ends with delivery of a rather complicated, highly customized product. ETO operations are practiced in various industries such as engineering tooling, factory plants, industrial boilers, pressure vessels, shipbuilding, bridges and buildings. ETO views each product as a delivery item in an industrial project and needs to make an accurate estimation of its development cost at the bidding and/or planning stage before any design or manufacturing activity starts. ^ Many ETO practitioners rely on an ad hoc approach to cost estimation, with use of past projects as reference, adapting them to the new requirements. This process is often carried out on a case-by-case basis and in a non-procedural fashion, thus limiting its applicability to other industry domains and transferability to other estimators. In addition to being time consuming, this approach usually does not lead to an accurate cost estimate, which varies from 30% to 50%. ^ This research proposes a generic cost modeling methodology for application in ETO operations across various industry domains. Using the proposed methodology, a cost estimator will be able to develop a cost estimation model for use in a chosen ETO industry in a more expeditious, systematic and accurate manner. ^ The development of the proposed methodology was carried out by following the meta-methodology as outlined by Thomann. Deploying the methodology, cost estimation models were created in two industry domains (building construction and the steel milling equipment manufacturing). The models are then applied to real cases; the cost estimates are significantly more accurate than the actual estimates, with mean absolute error rate of 17.3%. ^ This research fills an important need of quick and accurate cost estimation across various ETO industries. It differs from existing approaches to the problem in that a methodology is developed for use to quickly customize a cost estimation model for a chosen application domain. In addition to more accurate estimation, the major contributions are in its transferability to other users and applicability to different ETO operations. ^

A tidal creek water budget: Estimation of groundwater discharge and overland flow using hydrologic modeling in the Southern Everglades

Taylor Slough is one of the natural freshwater contributors to Florida Bay through a network of microtidal creeks crossing the Everglades Mangrove Ecotone Region (EMER). The EMER ecological function is critical since it mediates freshwater and nutrient inputs and controls the water quality in Eastern Florida Bay. Furthermore, this region is vulnerable to changing hydrodynamics and nutrient loadings as a result of upstream freshwater management practices proposed by the Comprehensive Everglades Restoration Program (CERP), currently the largest wetland restoration project in the USA. Despite the hydrological importance of Taylor Slough in the water budget of Florida Bay, there are no fine scale (∼1 km2) hydrodynamic models of this system that can be utilized as a tool to evaluate potential changes in water flow, salinity, and water quality. Taylor River is one of the major creeks draining Taylor Slough freshwater into Florida Bay. We performed a water budget analysis for the Taylor River area, based on long-term hydrologic data (1999–2007) and supplemented by hydrodynamic modeling using a MIKE FLOOD (DHI,http://dhigroup.com/) model to evaluate groundwater and overland water discharges. The seasonal hydrologic characteristics are very distinctive (average Taylor River wet vs. dry season outflow was 6 to 1 during 1999–2006) with a pronounced interannual variability of flow. The water budget shows a net dominance of through flow in the tidal mixing zone, while local precipitation and evapotranspiration play only a secondary role, at least in the wet season. During the dry season, the tidal flood reaches the upstream boundary of the study area during approximately 80 days per year on average. The groundwater field measurements indicate a mostly upwards-oriented leakage, which possibly equals the evapotranspiration term. The model results suggest a high importance of groundwater contribution to the water salinity in the EMER. The model performance is satisfactory during the dry season where surface flow in the area is confined to the Taylor River channel. The model also provided guidance on the importance of capturing the overland flow component, which enters the area as sheet flow during the rainy season. Overall, the modeling approach is suitable to reach better understanding of the water budget in the mangrove region. However, more detailed field data is needed to ascertain model predictions by further calibrating overland flow parameters.

Estimation and Prediction of Average Vehicle Occupancies using Traffic Accident Records

As congestion management strategies begin to put more emphasis on person trips than vehicle trips, the need for vehicle occupancy data has become more critical. The traditional methods of collecting these data include the roadside windshield method and the carousel method. These methods are labor-intensive and expensive. An alternative to these traditional methods is to make use of the vehicle occupancy information in traffic accident records. This method is cost effective and may provide better spatial and temporal coverage than the traditional methods. However, this method is subject to potential biases resulting from under- and over-involvement of certain population sectors and certain types of accidents in traffic accident records. In this dissertation, three such potential biases, i.e., accident severity, driver¡¯s age, and driver¡¯s gender, were investigated and the corresponding bias factors were developed as needed. The results show that although multi-occupant vehicles are involved in higher percentages of severe accidents than are single-occupant vehicles, multi-occupant vehicles in the whole accident vehicle population were not overrepresented in the accident database. On the other hand, a significant difference was found between the distributions of the ages and genders of drivers involved in accidents and those of the general driving population. An information system that incorporates adjustments for the potential biases was developed to estimate the average vehicle occupancies (AVOs) for different types of roadways on the Florida state roadway system. A reasonableness check of the results from the system shows AVO estimates that are highly consistent with expectations. In addition, comparisons of AVOs from accident data with the field estimates show that the two data sources produce relatively consistent results. While accident records can be used to obtain the historical AVO trends and field data can be used to estimate the current AVOs, no known methods have been developed to project future AVOs. Four regression models for the purpose of predicting weekday AVOs on different levels of geographic areas and roadway types were developed as part of this dissertation. The models show that such socioeconomic factors as income, vehicle ownership, and employment have a significant impact on AVOs.

Freeway Travel Time Estimation and Prediction Using Dynamic Neural Networks

Providing transportation system operators and travelers with accurate travel time information allows them to make more informed decisions, yielding benefits for individual travelers and for the entire transportation system. Most existing advanced traveler information systems (ATIS) and advanced traffic management systems (ATMS) use instantaneous travel time values estimated based on the current measurements, assuming that traffic conditions remain constant in the near future. For more effective applications, it has been proposed that ATIS and ATMS should use travel times predicted for short-term future conditions rather than instantaneous travel times measured or estimated for current conditions. This dissertation research investigates short-term freeway travel time prediction using Dynamic Neural Networks (DNN) based on traffic detector data collected by radar traffic detectors installed along a freeway corridor. DNN comprises a class of neural networks that are particularly suitable for predicting variables like travel time, but has not been adequately investigated for this purpose. Before this investigation, it was necessary to identifying methods for data imputation to account for missing data usually encountered when collecting data using traffic detectors. It was also necessary to identify a method to estimate the travel time on the freeway corridor based on data collected using point traffic detectors. A new travel time estimation method referred to as the Piecewise Constant Acceleration Based (PCAB) method was developed and compared with other methods reported in the literatures. The results show that one of the simple travel time estimation methods (the average speed method) can work as well as the PCAB method, and both of them out-perform other methods. This study also compared the travel time prediction performance of three different DNN topologies with different memory setups. The results show that one DNN topology (the time-delay neural networks) out-performs the other two DNN topologies for the investigated prediction problem. This topology also performs slightly better than the simple multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural network topology that has been used in a number of previous studies for travel time prediction.