Parameter estimation in the presence of auxiliary information

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutora em Estatística e Gestão de Risco, Especialidade em Estatística

Hospital-acquired infections: a cost estimation for CLABSI in Portugal

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Operating profitability in branded pharmaceutical firms

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Exploring profitability diversity through financial statement analysis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

How to increase profitability of Golf Industry in Lisbon?

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

An estimation of the frequency of gestational toxoplasmosis in the Brazilian Federal District

Acute infections by the protozoan Toxoplasma gondii during pregnancy (gestational toxoplasmosis) are known to cause serious health problems to the fetus (congenital toxoplasmosis). In Brasília, there have been few studies on the incidence of toxoplasmosis. This report summarizes a retrospective study performed on 2,636 selected pregnant women attended by the public health system of Guará, a satellite-city of Brasília. In this survey, 17 cases of gestational toxoplasmosis were detected; 15 of which were primary maternal infection and the remaining 2 were consistent with secondary maternal infection. These results suggest an annual seroconversion rate of 0.64 percent (90 percent confidence interval: 0.38, 0.90).

Evaluation of uv spectrophotometry for estimation of nitrite and nitrate in nitrified urine

Water is a limited resource for which demand is growing. Contaminated water from inadequate wastewater treatment provides one of the greatest health challenges as it restricts development and increases poverty in emerging and developing countries. Therefore, the connection between wastewater and human health is linked to access to sanitation and to human waste disposal. Adequate sanitation is expected to create a barrier between disposed human excreta and sources of drinking water. Different approaches to wastewater management are required for different geographical regions and different stages of economic governance depending on the capacity to manage wastewater. Effective wastewater management can contribute to overcome the challenges of water scarcity. Separate collection of human urine at its source is one promising approach that strongly reduces the economic and load demands on wastewater treatment plants (WWTP). Treatment of source-separated urine appears as a sanitation system that is affordable, produces a valuable fertiliser, reduces pollution of water resources and promotes health. However, the technical realisation of urine separation still faces challenges. Biological hydrolysis of urea causes a strong increase of ammonia and pH. Under these conditions ammonia volatilises which can cause odour problems and significant nitrogen losses. The above problems can be avoided by urine stabilisation. Biological nitrification is a suitable process for stabilisation of urine. Urine is a highly concentrated nutrient solution which can lead to strong inhibition effects during bacterial nitrification. This can further lead to process instabilities. The major cause of instability is accumulation of the inhibitory intermediate compound nitrite, which could lead to process breakdown. Enhanced on-line nitrite monitoring can be applied in biological source-separated urine nitrification reactors as a sustainable and efficient way to improve the reactor performance, avoiding reactor failures and eventual loss of biological activity. Spectrophotometry appears as a promising candidate for the development and application of on-line nitrite monitoring. Spectroscopic methods together with chemometrics are presented in this work as a powerful tool for estimation of nitrite concentrations. Principal component regression (PCR) is applied for the estimation of nitrite concentrations using an immersible UV sensor and off-line spectra acquisition. The effect of particles and the effect of saturation, respectively, on the UV absorbance spectra are investigated. The analysis allows to conclude that (i) saturation has a substantial effect on nitrite estimation; (ii) particles appear to have less impact on nitrite estimation. In addition, improper mixing together with instabilities in the urine nitrification process appears to significantly reduce the performance of the estimation model.

Portuguese banks and the economic adjustment programme: balance sheet adjustments and impact on profitability

Double Degree. A Work Project presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics and a Masters Degree in Finance from Louvain School of Management

EDP - A new estimation algorithm

The aim of this work project is to analyze the current algorithm used by EDP to estimate their clients’ electrical energy consumptions, create a new algorithm and compare the advantages and disadvantages of both. This new algorithm is different from the current one as it incorporates some effects from temperature variations. The results of the comparison show that this new algorithm with temperature variables performed better than the same algorithm without temperature variables, although there is still potential for further improvements of the current algorithm, if the prediction model is estimated using a sample of daily data, which is the case of the current EDP algorithm.

Basel III: The impact of new capital requirements on profitability of Portuguese Banks

This empirical study aims to explore the impact of increased capital ratio requirements, on the ROE of the Portuguese banking sector. The paper employs both a quantitative- and qualitative approach, with the qualitative approach as the main method of research. The method adopted to conduct the qualitative research was semi structured elite interviews with banking executives. Higher capital requirements decrease the ROE of banks in Portugal, but huge impairments charges, macroeconomic factors and increased costs of deposits are clearly the dominant reasons for the reduced levels of ROE the past years. Among the measures taken to increase capital ratios, reduction of RWAs and non-core assets have been the main focus, but the issuance of CoCos is regarded as the most expensive measure due to high interest payments. However, the CoCos will not have any effect on the ROE in the long term. It is difficult to draw any conclusions on the impact of more equity in the balance sheet on the ROE of Portuguese banks, as many banks currently don’t generate enough money to pay back on shareholders´ investments.

The relationship between liquidity and profitability in the food & beverage industry evidence from Europe and United States

This Work Project clarifies the relationship between liquidity and profitability based on a sample in the Food & Beverage (F&B) industry, and comparing the largest European and United States companies. The research concludes that liquidity, proxied by current ratio or quick ratio, correlates with return on assets taken as the measure of profitability, and so does the cash conversion cycle and its components. Moreover, company size correlates with liquidity, and indirectly affects ROA. This research contributes and addresses to managers in the F&B industry and recommends how they should act in order to improve profitability in the industry.

Genetic algorithm for shipping route estimation with long-range tracking data : automatic reconstruction of shipping routes based on the historical ship positions for maritime safety applications

Ship tracking systems allow Maritime Organizations that are concerned with the Safety at Sea to obtain information on the current location and route of merchant vessels. Thanks to Space technology in recent years the geographical coverage of the ship tracking platforms has increased significantly, from radar based near-shore traffic monitoring towards a worldwide picture of the maritime traffic situation. The long-range tracking systems currently in operations allow the storage of ship position data over many years: a valuable source of knowledge about the shipping routes between different ocean regions. The outcome of this Master project is a software prototype for the estimation of the most operated shipping route between any two geographical locations. The analysis is based on the historical ship positions acquired with long-range tracking systems. The proposed approach makes use of a Genetic Algorithm applied on a training set of relevant ship positions extracted from the long-term storage tracking database of the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA). The analysis of some representative shipping routes is presented and the quality of the results and their operational applications are assessed by a Maritime Safety expert.

Simulation of humidity fields in concrete: experimental validation and parameter estimation

The moisture content in concrete structures has an important influence in their behavior and performance. Several vali-dated numerical approaches adopt the governing equation for relative humidity fields proposed in Model Code 1990/2010. Nevertheless there is no integrative study which addresses the choice of parameters for the simulation of the humidity diffusion phenomenon, particularly in concern to the range of parameters forwarded by Model Code 1990/2010. A software based on a Finite Difference Method Algorithm (1D and axisymmetric cases) is used to perform sensitivity analyses on the main parameters in a normal strength concrete. Then, based on the conclusions of the sensi-tivity analyses, experimental results from nine different concrete compositions are analyzed. The software is used to identify the main material parameters that better fit the experimental data. In general, the model was able to satisfactory fit the experimental results and new correlations were proposed, particularly focusing on the boundary transfer coeffi-cient.

Exploring TM image texture and its relationships with biomass estimation in Rondônia, Brazilian Amazon

Many texture measures have been developed and used for improving land-cover classification accuracy, but rarely has research examined the role of textures in improving the performance of aboveground biomass estimations. The relationship between texture and biomass is poorly understood. This paper used Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) data to explore relationships between TM image textures and aboveground biomass in Rondônia, Brazilian Amazon. Eight grey level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM) based texture measures (i.e., mean, variance, homogeneity, contrast, dissimilarity, entropy, second moment, and correlation), associated with seven different window sizes (5x5, 7x7, 9x9, 11x11, 15x15, 19x19, and 25x25), and five TM bands (TM 2, 3, 4, 5, and 7) were analyzed. Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to analyze texture and biomass relationships. This research indicates that most textures are weakly correlated with successional vegetation biomass, but some textures are significantly correlated with mature forest biomass. In contrast, TM spectral signatures are significantly correlated with successional vegetation biomass, but weakly correlated with mature forest biomass. Our findings imply that textures may be critical in improving mature forest biomass estimation, but relatively less important for successional vegetation biomass estimation.

Nonparametric estimation of time-dependent ROC curves conditional on a continuous covariate

The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve is the most widely used measure for evaluating the performance of a diagnostic biomarker when predicting a binary disease outcome. The ROC curve displays the true positive rate (or sensitivity) and the false positive rate (or 1-specificity) for different cut-off values used to classify an individual as healthy or diseased. In time-to-event studies, however, the disease status (e.g. death or alive) of an individual is not a fixed characteristic, and it varies along the study. In such cases, when evaluating the performance of the biomarker, several issues should be taken into account: first, the time-dependent nature of the disease status; and second, the presence of incomplete data (e.g. censored data typically present in survival studies). Accordingly, to assess the discrimination power of continuous biomarkers for time-dependent disease outcomes, time-dependent extensions of true positive rate, false positive rate, and ROC curve have been recently proposed. In this work, we present new nonparametric estimators of the cumulative/dynamic time-dependent ROC curve that allow accounting for the possible modifying effect of current or past covariate measures on the discriminatory power of the biomarker. The proposed estimators can accommodate right-censored data, as well as covariate-dependent censoring. The behavior of the estimators proposed in this study will be explored through simulations and illustrated using data from a cohort of patients who suffered from acute coronary syndrome.