Validation of the 2000 Bernstein-Parsonnet and EuroSCORE at the Heart Institute - USP

Objective: To validate the 2000 Bernstein Parsonnet (2000BP) and additive EuroSCORE (ES) to predict mortality in patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery at the Heart Institute, University of Sao Paulo (InCor/HC-FMUSP). Methods:A prospective observational design. We analyzed 3000 consecutive patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery, between May 2007 and July 2009 at the InCor/HC-FMUSP. Mortality was calculated with the 2000BP and ES models. The correlation between estimated mortality and observed mortality was validated by calibration and discrimination tests. Results: There were significant differences in the prevalence of risk factors between the study population, 2000BP and ES. Patients were stratified into five groups for 2000BP and three for the ES. In the validation of models, the ES showed good calibration (P = 0396), however, the 2000BP (P = 0.047) proved inadequate. In discrimination, the area under the ROC curve proved to be good for models, ES (0.79) and 2000BP (0.80). Conclusion: In the validation, 2000BP proved questionable and ES appropriate to predict mortality in patients who underwent coronary bypass surgery and/or heart valve surgery at the InCor/HC-FMUSP.

The assessment of change in rural landscape and the analysis of the driving forces. Proposal of a spatial model for the rural built environment

The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

Orthogonal gamma-based expansions for volatility option prices under jump-diffusion dynamics

In my work I derive closed-form pricing formulas for volatility based options by suitably approximating the volatility process risk-neutral density function. I exploit and adapt the idea, which stands behind popular techniques already employed in the context of equity options such as Edgeworth and Gram-Charlier expansions, of approximating the underlying process as a sum of some particular polynomials weighted by a kernel, which is typically a Gaussian distribution. I propose instead a Gamma kernel to adapt the methodology to the context of volatility options. VIX vanilla options closed-form pricing formulas are derived and their accuracy is tested for the Heston model (1993) as well as for the jump-diffusion SVJJ model proposed by Duffie et al. (2000).

[The abdominal catastrophe]

Patients with an abdominal catastrophe are in urgent need of early, interdisciplinary medical help. The treatment plan should be based on medical priorities and clear leadership. First priority should be given to achieve optimal oxygenation of blood and stabilization of circulation during all treatment-phases. The sicker the patient, the less invasive the (surgical) treatment should to be, which means "damage control only". This short article describes 7 important, pragmatic rules that will help to increase the survival of a patient with an abdominal catastrophe. Preexisting morbidity and risk factors must be included in the overall risk-evaluation for every therapeutic intervention. The challenge in patients with an abdominal catastrophe is to carefully balance the therapeutic stress and the existing resistance of the individual patient. The best way to avoid abdominal disaster, however, is its prevention.

Bewertung von Methoden hinsichtlich einer ganzheitlichen Prozessdarstellung

Zur Optimierung innerbetrieblicher Logistikprozesse ist eine ganzheitliche Prozessdarstellung unter Berücksichtigung von Material-, Informationsfluss und der eingesetzten Ressourcen erforderlich. In diesem Aufsatz werden verschiedene, häufig verwendete Methoden zur Prozessdarstellung diesbezüglich miteinander verglichen und bewertet. Die verschiedenen Stärken und Schwächen werden in Form eines Benchmarks zusammengefasst, das als Grundlage für eine neue Methode dient, die im Rahmen des IGF-Forschungsprojekts 16187 N/1 erarbeitet wurde.

Aus der Krise lernen – Wirtschaftlichkeit durch Flexibilität und Wandlungsfähigkeit sichern

Flexible und wandelbare Fabrikstrukturen sind von hoher Bedeutung, wenn Produktionsstätten in einem turbulenten Umfeld langfristig wettbewerbsfähig bleiben sollen; darin sind sich Forschung und Praxis einig. Während der jüngsten weltweiten Wirtschaftskrise wurden Experten aus dem Airline-Catering-Umfeld befragt, wie Betriebe dieser Branche auf starke Veränderungen vorbereitet sind. Vorgespräche und Analysen des Autors legten die Vermutung nahe, dass diese Dienstleistungsbranche besonderen Flexibilitätsanforderungen unterliegt. Im Rahmen einer detaillierten Studie, deren Erkenntnisse in einer Dissertation zusammengefasst werden, sind Interviews mit Experten geführt worden. Aus den Ergebnissen der Interviews wurden Schlussfolgerungen auf erforderliche, flexible Materialflusstechniklösungen, im Speziellen Elektrohängebahnen (EHB), und bauliche Anpassungen nach dem „Konzept Internet der Dinge“ gezogen. Szenarioanalysen zu Wirtschaftlichkeits- und Risikoaspekten durchleuchteten die generierten Ansätze. Anschließend an die quantitative Analyse wurden die Ansätze ebenfalls durch eine qualitative Bewertung herkömmlichen Lösungen gegenübergestellt. Die aufgebaute Bewertungsmethode ist sowohl geeignet, um in zukünftigen Projekten die Entscheidung für oder gegen eine wandelbare Ausführung zu treffen, als auch andere Branchen auf die grundsätzliche Sinnhaftigkeit des Einsatzes wandelbarer Materialflusstechnik zu überprüfen.

Theoretical framework for the assessment of vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change [in Europe]

Reducing risk that emerges from hazards of natural origin and societal vulnerability is a key challenge for the development of more resilient communities and the overall goal of sustainable development. The following chapter outlines a framework for multidimensional, holistic vulnerability assessment that is understood as part of risk evaluation and risk management in the context of Disaster Risk Management (DRM) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA). As a heuristic, the framework is a thinking tool to guide systematic assessments of vulnerability and to provide a basis for comparative indicators and criteria development to assess key factors and various dimensions of vulnerability, particularly in regions in Europe, however, it can also be applied in other world regions. The framework has been developed within the context of the research project MOVE (Methods for the Improvement of Vulnerability Assessment in Europe; ) sponsored by the European Commission within the framework of the FP 7 program.

Percutaneous mitral valve edge-to-edge repair: in-hospital results and 1-year follow-up of 628 patients of the 2011-2012 Pilot European Sentinel Registry.

BACKGROUND The use of transcatheter mitral valve repair (TMVR) has gained widespread acceptance in Europe, but data on immediate success, safety, and long-term echocardiographic follow-up in real-world patients are still limited. OBJECTIVES The aim of this multinational registry is to present a real-world overview of TMVR use in Europe. METHODS The Transcatheter Valve Treatment Sentinel Pilot Registry is a prospective, independent, consecutive collection of individual patient data. RESULTS A total of 628 patients (mean age 74.2 ± 9.7 years, 63.1% men) underwent TMVR between January 2011 and December 2012 in 25 centers in 8 European countries. The prevalent pathogenesis was functional mitral regurgitation (FMR) (n = 452 [72.0%]). The majority of patients (85.5%) were highly symptomatic (New York Heart Association functional class III or higher), with a high logistic EuroSCORE (European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation) (20.4 ± 16.7%). Acute procedural success was high (95.4%) and similar in FMR and degenerative mitral regurgitation (p = 0.662). One clip was implanted in 61.4% of patients. In-hospital mortality was low (2.9%), without significant differences between groups. The estimated 1-year mortality was 15.3%, which was similar for FMR and degenerative mitral regurgitation. The estimated 1-year rate of rehospitalization because of heart failure was 22.8%, significantly higher in the FMR group (25.8% vs. 12.0%, p[log-rank] = 0.009). Paired echocardiographic data from the 1-year follow-up, available for 368 consecutive patients in 15 centers, showed a persistent reduction in the degree of mitral regurgitation at 1 year (6.0% of patients with severe mitral regurgitation). CONCLUSIONS This independent, contemporary registry shows that TMVR is associated with high immediate success, low complication rates, and sustained 1-year reduction of the severity of mitral regurgitation and improvement of clinical symptoms.

European experience with the second-generation Edwards SAPIEN XT transcatheter heart valve in patients with severe aortic stenosis: 1-year outcomes from the SOURCE XT Registry

OBJECTIVES The SOURCE XT Registry (Edwards SAPIEN XT Aortic Bioprosthesis Multi-Region Outcome Registry) assessed the use and clinical outcomes with the SAPIEN XT (Edwards Lifesciences, Irvine, California) valve in the real-world setting. BACKGROUND Transcatheter aortic valve replacement is an established treatment for high-risk/inoperable patients with severe aortic stenosis. The SAPIEN XT is a balloon-expandable valve with enhanced features allowing delivery via a lower profile sheath. METHODS The SOURCE XT Registry is a prospective, multicenter, post-approval study. Data from 2,688 patients at 99 sites were analyzed. The main outcome measures were all-cause mortality, stroke, major vascular complications, bleeding, and pacemaker implantations at 30-days and 1 year post-procedure. RESULTS The mean age was 81.4 ± 6.6 years, 42.3% were male, and the mean logistic EuroSCORE (European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation) was 20.4 ± 12.4%. Patients had a high burden of coronary disease (44.2%), diabetes (29.4%), renal insufficiency (28.9%), atrial fibrillation (25.6%), and peripheral vascular disease (21.2%). Survival was 93.7% at 30 days and 80.6% at 1 year. At 30-day follow-up, the stroke rate was 3.6%, the rate of major vascular complications was 6.5%, the rate of life-threatening bleeding was 5.5%, the rate of new pacemakers was 9.5%, and the rate of moderate/severe paravalvular leak was 5.5%. Multivariable analysis identified nontransfemoral approach (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.84; p < 0.0001), renal insufficiency (HR: 1.53; p < 0.0001), liver disease (HR: 1.67; p = 0.0453), moderate/severe tricuspid regurgitation (HR: 1.47; p = 0.0019), porcelain aorta (HR: 1.47; p = 0.0352), and atrial fibrillation (HR: 1.41; p = 0.0014), with the highest HRs for 1-year mortality. Major vascular complications and major/life-threatening bleeding were the most frequently seen complications associated with a significant increase in 1-year mortality. CONCLUSIONS The SOURCE XT Registry demonstrated appropriate use of the SAPIEN XT THV in the first year post-commercialization in Europe. The safety profile is sustained, and clinical benefits have been established in the real-world setting. (SOURCE XT Registry; NCT01238497).

Utility of electrophysiological studies to predict arrhythmic events

AIM To evaluate the prognostic value of electrophysiological stimulation (EPS) in the risk stratification for tachyarrhythmic events and sudden cardiac death (SCD). METHODS We conducted a prospective cohort study and analyzed the long-term follow-up of 265 consecutive patients who underwent programmed ventricular stimulation at the Luzerner Kantonsspital (Lucerne, Switzerland) between October 2003 and April 2012. Patients underwent EPS for SCD risk evaluation because of structural or functional heart disease and/or electrical conduction abnormality and/or after syncope/cardiac arrest. EPS was considered abnormal, if a sustained ventricular tachycardia (VT) was inducible. The primary endpoint of the study was SCD or, in implanted patients, adequate ICD-activation. RESULTS During EPS, sustained VT was induced in 125 patients (47.2%) and non-sustained VT in 60 patients (22.6%); in 80 patients (30.2%) no arrhythmia could be induced. In our cohort, 153 patients (57.7%) underwent ICD implantation after the EPS. During follow-up (mean duration 4.8 ± 2.3 years), a primary endpoint event occurred in 49 patients (18.5%). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was 0.593 (95%CI: 0.515-0.670) for a left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) < 35% and 0.636 (95%CI: 0.563-0.709) for inducible sustained VT during EPS. The AUROC of EPS was higher in the subgroup of patients with LVEF ≥ 35% (0.681, 95%CI: 0.578-0.785). Cox regression analysis showed that both, sustained VT during EPS (HR: 2.26, 95%CI: 1.22-4.19, P = 0.009) and LVEF < 35% (HR: 2.00, 95%CI: 1.13-3.54, P = 0.018) were independent predictors of primary endpoint events. CONCLUSION EPS provides a benefit in risk stratification for future tachyarrhythmic events and SCD and should especially be considered in patients with LVEF ≥ 35%.

Primary prophylaxis for venous thromboembolism in patients undergoing cardiac or thoracic surgery.

BACKGROUND Cardiac and thoracic surgery are associated with an increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE). The safety and efficacy of primary thromboprophylaxis in patients undergoing these types of surgery is uncertain. OBJECTIVES To assess the effects of primary thromboprophylaxis on the incidence of symptomatic VTE and major bleeding in patients undergoing cardiac or thoracic surgery. SEARCH METHODS The Cochrane Peripheral Vascular Diseases Group Trials Search Co-ordinator searched the Specialised Register (last searched May 2014) and CENTRAL (2014, Issue 4). The authors searched the reference lists of relevant studies, conference proceedings, and clinical trial registries. SELECTION CRITERIA Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and quasi-RCTs comparing any oral or parenteral anticoagulant or mechanical intervention to no intervention or placebo, or comparing two different anticoagulants. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS We extracted data on methodological quality, participant characteristics, interventions, and outcomes including symptomatic VTE and major bleeding as the primary effectiveness and safety outcomes, respectively. MAIN RESULTS We identified 12 RCTs and one quasi-RCT (6923 participants), six for cardiac surgery (3359 participants) and seven for thoracic surgery (3564 participants). No study evaluated fondaparinux, the new oral direct thrombin, direct factor Xa inhibitors, or caval filters. All studies had major study design flaws and most lacked a placebo or no treatment control group. We typically graded the quality of the overall body of evidence for the various outcomes and comparisons as low, due to imprecise estimates of effect and risk of bias. We could not pool data because of the different comparisons and the lack of data. In cardiac surgery, 71 symptomatic VTEs occurred in 3040 participants from four studies. In a study of 2551 participants, representing 85% of the review population in cardiac surgery, the combination of unfractionated heparin with pneumatic compression stockings was associated with a 61% reduction of symptomatic VTE compared to unfractionated heparin alone (1.5% versus 4.0%; risk ratio (RR) 0.39; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.23 to 0.64). Major bleeding was only reported in one study, which found a higher incidence with vitamin K antagonists compared to platelet inhibitors (11.3% versus 1.6%, RR 7.06; 95% CI 1.64 to 30.40). In thoracic surgery, 15 symptomatic VTEs occurred in 2890 participants from six studies. In the largest study evaluating unfractionated heparin versus an inactive control the rates of symptomatic VTE were 0.7% versus 0%, respectively, giving a RR of 6.71 (95% CI 0.40 to 112.65). There was insufficient evidence to determine if there was a difference in the risk of major bleeding from two studies evaluating fixed-dose versus weight-adjusted low molecular weight heparin (2.7% versus 8.1%, RR 0.33; 95% CI 0.07 to 1.60) and unfractionated heparin versus low molecular weight heparin (6% and 4%, RR 1.50; 95% CI 0.26 to 8.60). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS The evidence regarding the efficacy and safety of thromboprophylaxis in cardiac and thoracic surgery is limited. Data for important outcomes such as pulmonary embolism or major bleeding were often lacking. Given the uncertainties around the benefit-to-risk balance, no conclusions can be drawn and a case-by-case risk evaluation of VTE and bleeding remains preferable.

Significant Differences Characterise the Correlation Coefficients between Biocide and Antibiotic Susceptibility Profiles in Staphylococcus aureus.

There is a growing concern by regulatory authorities for the selection of antibiotic resistance caused by the use of biocidal products. We aimed to complete the detailed information on large surveys by investigating the relationship between biocide and antibiotic susceptibility profiles of a large number of Staphylococcus aureus isolates using four biocides and antibiotics commonly used in clinical practice. The minimal inhibitory concentration (MIC) for most clinically-relevant antibiotics was determined according to the standardized methodology for over 1600 clinical S. aureus isolates and compared to susceptibility profiles of benzalkonium chloride, chlorhexidine, triclosan, and sodium hypochlorite. The relationship between antibiotic and biocide susceptibility profiles was evaluated using non-linear correlations. The main outcome evidenced was an absence of any strong or moderate statistically significant correlation when susceptibilities of either triclosan or sodium hypochlorite were compared for any of the tested antibiotics. On the other hand, correlation coefficients for MICs of benzalkonium chloride and chlorhexidine were calculated above 0.4 for susceptibility to quinolones, beta-lactams, and also macrolides. Our data do not support any selective pressure for association between biocides and antibiotics resistance and furthermore do not allow for a defined risk evaluation for some of the compounds. Importantly, our data clearly indicate that there does not involve any risk of selection for antibiotic resistance for the compounds triclosan and sodium hypochlorite. These data hence infer that biocide selection for antibiotic resistance has had so far a less significant impact than feared.

Mistreatment and self-neglect in community dwelling older adults: Studies of construct validity, measurement invariance and latent classes

Mistreatment and self-neglect significantly increase the risk of dying in older adults. It is estimated that 1 to 2 million older adults experience elder mistreatment and self-neglect every year in the United States. Currently, there are no elder mistreatment and self-neglect assessment tools with construct validity and measurement invariance testing and no studies have sought to identify underlying latent classes of elder self-neglect that may have differential mortality rates. Using data from 11,280 adults with Texas APS substantiated elder mistreatment and self-neglect 3 studies were conducted to: (1) test the construct validity and (2) the measurement invariance across gender and ethnicity of the Texas Adult Protective Services (APS) Client Assessment and Risk Evaluation (CARE) tool and (3) identify latent classes associated with elder self-neglect. Study 1 confirmed the construct validity of the CARE tool following adjustments to the initial hypothesized CARE tool. This resulted in the deletion of 14 assessment items and a final assessment with 5 original factors and 43 items. Cross-validation for this model was achieved. Study 2 provided empirical evidence for factor loading and item-threshold invariance of the CARE tool across gender and between African-Americans and Caucasians. The financial status domain of the CARE tool did not function properly for Hispanics and thus, had to be deleted. Subsequent analyses showed factor loading and item-threshold invariance across all 3 ethnic groups with the exception of some residual errors. Study 3 identified 4-latent classes associated with elder self-neglect behaviors which included individuals with evidence of problems in the areas of (1) their environment, (2) physical and medical status, (3) multiple domains and (4) finances. Overall, these studies provide evidence supporting the use of APS CARE tool for providing unbiased and valid investigations of mistreatment and neglect in older adults with different demographic characteristics. Furthermore, the findings support the underlying notion that elder self-neglect may not only occur along a continuum, but that differential types may exist. All of which, have very important potential implications for social and health services distributed to vulnerable mistreated and neglected older adults.^

Prioridades de manejo del riesgo de contaminación del recurso hídrico por efluentes

En el presente trabajo se propone y desarrolla una herramienta de "Gestión del riesgo de contaminación del recurso hídrico", inspirada en métodos comúnmente utilizados en las evaluaciones de impacto ambiental tales como la Matriz de importancia y la Evaluación de riesgo. Dicha herramienta se aplica en el oasis del río Tunuyán Inferior, cuya cuenca se localiza en el sector E de la Cordillera de Los Andes, provincia de Mendoza, Argentina. El método propuesto consiste en la determinación, en cada Unidad de Manejo (UM)3 de: 1. la vulnerabilidad del territorio; 2. la peligrosidad del efluente; 3. las clases de riesgo; 4. el índice prioridad de manejo del riesgo, variables que luego se traducen cartográficamente. Las bases de datos generadas pueden ser analizadas desde distintos enfoques y, a su vez, actualizadas a medida que se van profundizando los conocimientos acerca de los atributos que hacen a la peligrosidad del vertido (ej.: tipo de efluente, tiempo, caudal y lugar de descarga) y a la vulnerabilidad de la UM (ej.: tipo de acuífero, profundidad de nivel freático, permeabilidad del terreno, calidad del suelo, etc.). Esta herramienta de gestión genera un diagnóstico dinámico de la situación, ya que puede ser perfeccionado a través de la investigación de las variables que intervienen en el proceso de contaminación del agua por efluentes. Además, es una herramienta práctica porque jerarquiza las prioridades de gestión, de acuerdo con un orden de aplicación gradual de medidas de manejo del riesgo de contaminación. Teniendo en cuenta la tendencia mundial de reducción de glaciares por efecto del calentamiento global y su impacto negativo en los caudales de los ríos, es indispensable y urgente establecer prioridades de gestión para preservar la calidad del recurso hídrico.