Predictive factors of in-hospital mortality and of severe perioperative complications in myocardial revascularization surgery

OBJECTIVE: To investigate preoperative predictive factors of severe perioperative intercurrent events and in-hospital mortality in coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and to develop specific models of risk prediction for these events, mainly those that can undergo changes in the preoperative period. METHODS: We prospectively studied 453 patients who had undergone CABG. Factors independently associated with the events of interest were determined with multiple logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression model. RESULTS: The mortality rate was 11.3% (51/453), and 21.2% of the patients had 1 or more perioperative intercurrent events. In the final model, the following variables remained associated with the risk of intercurrent events: age ³ 70 years, female sex, hospitalization via SUS (Sistema Único de Saúde - the Brazilian public health system), cardiogenic shock, ischemia, and dependence on dialysis. Using multiple logistic regression for in-hospital mortality, the following variables participated in the model of risk prediction: age ³ 70 years, female sex, hospitalization via SUS, diabetes, renal dysfunction, and cardiogenic shock. According to the Cox regression model for death within the 7 days following surgery, the following variables remained associated with mortality: age ³ 70 years, female sex, cardiogenic shock, and hospitalization via SUS. CONCLUSION: The aspects linked to the structure of the Brazilian health system, such as factors of great impact on the results obtained, indicate that the events investigated also depend on factors that do not relate to the patient's intrinsic condition.

Predictive factors of complications after coronary stent implantation

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the predictive factors of complications after implantation of coronary stents in a consecutive cohort study. METHODS: Clinical and angiographic characteristics related to the procedure were analyzed, and the incidence of major cardiovascular complications (myocardial infarction, urgent surgery, new angioplasty, death) in the in-hospital phase were recorded. Data were stored in an Access database and analyzed by using the SPSS 6.0 statistical program and a stepwise backwards multiple logistic regression model. RESULTS: One thousand eighteen (mean age of 61±11 years, 29% females) patients underwent 1,070 stent implantations. The rate of angiographic success was 96.8%, the rate of clinical success was 91%, and the incidence of major cardiovascular complications was 7.9%. The variables independently associated with major cardiovascular complications, with their respective odds ratio (OR) were: rescue stent, OR = 5.1 (2.7-9.6); filamentary stent, OR = 4.5 (2.2-9.1); first-generation tubular stent, OR = 2.4 (1.2-4.6); multiple stents, OR = 3 (1.6-5.6); complexity of the lesion, OR = 2.4 (1.1-5.1); thrombus, OR = 2 (1.1-3.5). CONCLUSION: The results stress the importance of angiographic variables and techniques in the risk of complications and draw attention to the influence of the stent's design on the result of the procedure.

Survival and Predictive Factors of Lethality in Hemodyalisis: D/I Polymorphism of The Angiotensin I-Converting Enzyme and of the Angiotensinogen M235T Genes

Background: End-stage kidney disease patients continue to have markedly increased cardiovascular disease morbidity and mortality. Analysis of genetic factors connected with the renin-angiotensin system that influences the survival of the patients with end-stage kidney disease supports the ongoing search for improved outcomes. Objective: To assess survival and its association with the polymorphism of renin-angiotensin system genes: angiotensin I-converting enzyme insertion/deletion and angiotensinogen M235T in patients undergoing hemodialysis. Methods: Our study was designed to examine the role of renin-angiotensin system genes. It was an observational study. We analyzed 473 chronic hemodialysis patients in four dialysis units in the state of Rio de Janeiro. Survival rates were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method and the differences between the curves were evaluated by Tarone-Ware, Peto-Prentice, and log rank tests. We also used logistic regression analysis and the multinomial model. A p value ≤ 0.05 was considered to be statistically significant. The local medical ethics committee gave their approval to this study. Results: The mean age of patients was 45.8 years old. The overall survival rate was 48% at 11 years. The major causes of death were cardiovascular diseases (34%) and infections (15%). Logistic regression analysis found statistical significance for the following variables: age (p = 0.000038), TT angiotensinogen (p = 0.08261), and family income greater than five times the minimum wage (p = 0.03089), the latter being a protective factor. Conclusions: The survival of hemodialysis patients is likely to be influenced by the TT of the angiotensinogen M235T gene.

Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

AbstractBackground:30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes.Objective:This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx) at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).Methods:Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC) III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.Results:The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD) increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping.Conclusion:We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

Forward rates : predictive power and trading strategies

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Wirtschaftswiss., Diss., 2014

The differentiation of character state relationships by binary coding and the monothetic subset method / Hymen Marx, George B. Rabb and Harold K. Voris.

v.72:no.1(1977)

Molecular variation at a candidate gene implicated in the regulation of fire ant social behavior

The fire ant Solenopsis invicta and its close relatives display an important social polymorphism involving differences in colony queen number. Colonies are headed by either a single reproductive queen (monogyne form) or multiple queens (polygyne form). This variation in social organization is associated with variation at the gene Gp-9, with monogyne colonies harboring only B-like allelic variants and polygyne colonies always containing b-like variants as well. We describe naturally occurring variation at Gp-9 in fire ants based on 185 full-length sequences, 136 of which were obtained from S. invicta collected over much of its native range. While there is little overall differentiation between most of the numerous alleles observed, a surprising amount is found in the coding regions of the gene, with such substitutions usually causing amino acid replacements. This elevated coding-region variation may result from a lack of negative selection acting to constrain amino acid replacements over much of the protein, different mutation rates or biases in coding and non-coding sequences, negative selection acting with greater strength on non-coding than coding regions, and/or positive selection acting on the protein. Formal selection analyses provide evidence that the latter force played an important role in the basal b-like lineages coincident with the emergence of polygyny. While our data set reveals considerable paraphyly and polyphyly of S. invicta sequences with respect to those of other fire ant species, the b-like alleles of the socially polymorphic species are monophyletic. An expanded analysis of colonies containing alleles of this clade confirmed the invariant link between their presence and expression of polygyny. Finally, our discovery of several unique alleles bearing various combinations of b-like and B-like codons allows us to conclude that no single b-like residue is completely predictive of polygyne behavior and, thus, potentially causally involved in its expression. Rather, all three typical b-like residues appear to be necessary.

Pervasive positive selection on duplicated and nonduplicated vertebrate protein coding genes.

A stringent branch-site codon model was used to detect positive selection in vertebrate evolution. We show that the test is robust to the large evolutionary distances involved. Positive selection was detected in 77% of 884 genes studied. Most positive selection concerns a few sites on a single branch of the phylogenetic tree: Between 0.9% and 4.7% of sites are affected by positive selection depending on the branches. No functional category was overrepresented among genes under positive selection. Surprisingly, whole genome duplication had no effect on the prevalence of positive selection, whether the fish-specific genome duplication or the two rounds at the origin of vertebrates. Thus positive selection has not been limited to a few gene classes, or to specific evolutionary events such as duplication, but has been pervasive during vertebrate evolution.

Is intra-operative blood flow predictive for early failure of radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula?

BACKGROUND: For over 50 years, radiocephalic wrist arteriovenous fistulae (RCAVF) have been the primary and best vascular access for haemodialysis. Nevertheless, early failure due to thrombosis or non-maturation is a major complication resulting in their abandonment. This prospective study was designed to investigate the predictive value of intra-operative blood flow on early failure of primary RCAVF before the first effective dialysis. METHODS: We enrolled patients undergoing creation of primary RCAVF for haemodialysis based on the pre-operative ultrasound vascular mapping discussed in a multidisciplinary approach. Intra-operative blood flow measurement was systematically performed once the anastomosis had been completed using a transit-time ultrasonic flowmeter. During the follow-up, blood flow was estimated by colour flow ultrasound at various intervals. Any events related to the RCAVF were recorded. RESULTS: Autogenous RCAVFs (n = 58) in 58 patients were constructed and followed up for an average of 30 days. Thrombosis and non-maturation occurred in eight (14%) and four (7%) patients, respectively. The intra-operative blood flow in functioning RCAVFs was significantly higher compared to non-functioning RCAVFs (230 vs 98 mL/min; P = 0.007), as well as 1 week (753 vs 228 mL/min; P = 0.0008) and 4 weeks (915 vs 245 mL/min, P < 0.0001) later. Blood flow volume measurements with a cut-off value of 120 mL/min had a sensitivity of 67%, specificity of 75% and positive predictive value of 91%. CONCLUSIONS: Blood flow <120 mL has a good predictive value for early failure in RCAVF. During the procedure, this cut-off value may be used to select appropriately which RCAVF should be investigated in the operation theatre in order to correct in real time any abnormality.

Plasma Level of Mmp-9 as Predictive Factor for Response and Progression Free Survival in Patients Treated with Bevacizumab (Bev) and Pegylated Liposomal Doxorubicin (Pld): Sakk 24/06

Background: There is currently no identified marker predicting benefit from Bev in patients with breast cancer (pts). We monitored prospectively 6 angiogenesis-related factors in the blood of advanced stage pts treated with a combination of Bev and PLD in a phase II trial of the Swiss Group for Clinical Cancer Research, SAKK.Methods: Pts received PLD (20 mg/m2) and Bev (10 mg/kg) every 2 weeks for a maximum of 12 administrations, followed by Bev monotherapy until progression or severe toxicity. Blood samples were collected at baseline, during treatment and at treatment discontinuation. Enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (Quantikine, R&DSystems and Reliatech) were used to measure vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF), placental growth factor (PlGF), matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP-9) and soluble VEGF receptors -1, -2 and -3. The natural log-transformed (ln) data for each factor was analyzed by analysis of variance (ANOVA) model to investigate differences between the mean values of the subgroups of interest (where a = 0.05), based on the best tumor response by RECIST.Results: 132 samples were collected in 41 pts. The mean of baseline ln MMP-9 levels was significantly lower in pts with tumor progression than those with tumor response (p=0.0202, log fold change=0.8786) or disease control (p=0.0035, log fold change=0.8427). Higher MMP-9 level was a significant predictor of superior progression free survival (PFS): p=0.0417, hazard ratio=0.574, 95% CI=0.336-0.979. In a multivariate cox proportional hazards model, containing performance status, disease free interval, number of tumor sites, visceral involvement and prior adjuvant chemotherapy, using stepwise regression baseline MMP-9 was still a statistically 117P Table 1. SOLTI-0701* AC01B07* NU07B1* SOR+CAP N=20 PL+CAP N=33 SOR+ GEM/CAP N=23 PL+ GEM/CAP N=27 SOR+PAC N=48 PL+PAC N=46 Baseline characteristics Age, median (range), y 49 (32-72) 53 (30-78 54 (32-69) 57 (31-82) 50 (27-80) 52 (23-74) AJCC stage, n (%) IIIB/IIIC 3 (15) 6 (18) 0 (0) 3 (11) 8 (17) 9 (20) IV 17 (85) 27 (82) 23 (100) 24 (89) 40 (83) 37 (80) Metastatic site, n (%) Non-visceral 3 (15) 6 (18) 7 (30) 6 (22) 9 (19) 17 (37) Visceral 17 (85) 27 (82) 16 (70) 21 (78) 39 (81) 29 (63) Prior metastatic chemo, n (%) 8 (40) 15 (45) 21 (91) 25 (93) - - Efficacy PFS, median, mo 4.3 2.5 3.1 2.6 5.6 5.5 HR (95% CI)_ 0.60 (0.31, 1.14) 0.57 (0.30, 1.09) 0.86 (0.50, 1.45) 1-sided P value_ 0.055 0.044 0.281 Overall survival, median, mo 17.5 16.1 Pending 14.7 18.2 HR (95% CI)_ 0.98 (0.50, 1.89) 1.11 (0.64, 1.94) 1-sided P value_ 0.476 0.352 Safety N=20 N=33 N=22 N=27 N=46 N=46 Tx-emergent Grade 3/4, n (%) 15 (75) 16 (48) 20 (91) 17 (63) 36 (78) 16 (35) Grade 3§ hand-foot skin reaction/ syndrome 8 (40) 5 (15) 8 (36) 0 (0) 14 (30) 2 (4) *Efficacy results based on intent-to-treat population and safety results based on safety population (pts who received study drug[s]); _Cox regression within each subgroup; _log-rank test within each subgroup; §maximum toxicity grade for hand-foot skin reaction/syndrome; AJCC, American Joint Committee on Cancer mittedabstractsª The Author 2011. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society for Medical Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com Downloaded from annonc.oxfordjournals.org at Bibliotheque Cantonale et Universitaire on June 6, 2011 significant factor (p=0.0266). The results of the other measured factors were presented elsewhere.Conclusions: Higher levels of MMP-9 could predict tumor response and superior PFSin pts treated with a combination of Bev and PLD. These exploratory results justify further investigations of MMP-9 in pts treated with Bev combinations in order to assess its role as a prognostic and predictive factor.Disclosure: K. Zaman: Participation in advisory board of Roche; partial sponsoring ofthe study by Roche (the main sponsor was the Swiss Federation against Cancer (Oncosuisse)). B. Thu¨rlimann: stock of Roche; Research grants from Roche. R. vonMoos: Participant of Advisory Board and Speaker honoraria

Emerging roles of non-coding RNAs in pancreatic β-cell function and dysfunction.

Pancreatic β-cells play a central role in glucose homeostasis by tightly regulating insulin release according to the organism's demand. Impairment of β-cell function due to hostile environment, such as hyperglycaemia and hyperlipidaemia, or due to autoimmune destruction of β-cells, results in diabetes onset. Both environmental factors and genetic predisposition are known to be involved in the development of the disease, but the exact mechanisms leading to β-cell dysfunction and death remain to be characterized. Non-coding RNA molecules, such as microRNAs (miRNAs), have been suggested to be necessary for proper β-cell development and function. The present review aims at summarizing the most recent findings about the role of non-coding RNAs in the control of β-cell functions and their involvement in diabetes. We will also provide a perspective view of the future research directions in the field of non-coding RNAs. In particular, we will discuss the implications for diabetes research of the discovery of a new communication mechanism based on cell-to-cell miRNA transfer. Moreover, we will highlight the emerging interconnections between miRNAs and epigenetics and the possible role of long non-coding RNAs in the control of β-cell activities.