Combined pre- and subtemporal transtentorial approach for epidermoid cysts of the cerebellopontine angle

Objective Epidermoid cysts of the cerebellopontine angle (CPA) can be a surgical challenge for the pediatric neurosurgeon. Ideally, total removal must be achieved; however, occasional adhesions of these tumors to vital neurovascular structures and extension far beyond the midline may preclude their total removal. The aims of this article are to present an alternative surgical approach to these lesions and to provide the rationale for this technique. Material and methods A 16-year-old boy was admitted to our pediatric neurosurgery department with a 1-year history of nonspecific headaches. His neurological examination showed right-sided dysmetria and gait ataxia. Magnetic resonance scans showed a space-occupying lesion on the right CPA with low intensity on T-1-weighted images and high intensity on T-2-weighted images. Results Craniotomy for tumor excision via pre- and subtemporal transtentorial approach was performed disclosing a 3.5 x 3 x 2.8-cm(3) well-encapsulated tumor, which was confirmed to be an epidermoid cyst. The postoperative course was uneventful. Conclusions A combined pre- and subtemporal approach utilizes a wide opening of the tentorium and the option of supratentorial retraction of the cerebellum to provide an excellent angle of approach to CPA lesions involving the anterolateral aspect of the brain stem in children.

Bracket/wire play: what to expect from tipping prescription on pre-adjusted appliances

INTRODUCTION: The opinion on the 'straight-wire' concept has been evolving since its origin, characterized by faithful followers or absolute skepticism. Currently, it seems reasonable to state that most professionals have a more realistic and critical viewpoint, with an attitude that reveals Orthodontics' maturity and greater knowledge on the technique. The most relevant criticisms refer to the impossibility of the both the Straight-Wire and the Standard systems to completely express the characteristics related to the brackets due to mechanical deficiencies, such as bracket/wire play. OBJECTIVES: A critical analysis of this relationship, which is unclear due to lack of studies, was the scope of this paper. METHODS: The compensatory treatment of two patients, using Capelozza's individualized brackets, works as the scenery for cephalometric evaluation of changes in incisor inclination produced by different dimensions of leveling archwires. RESULTS: The evaluation of these cases showed that, while the introduction of a 0.019 x 0.025-in stainless steel archwire in a 0.022 x 0.030-in slot did not produce significant changes in incisor inclination, the 0.021 x 0.025-in archwire was capable of changing it, mainly in mandibular incisors, and in the opposite direction to the compensation. CONCLUSION: Considering compensatory treatments, even when using an individualized prescription according to the malocclusion, the bracket/wire play seems to be a positive factor for malocclusion correction, without undesirable movements. Therefore, it seems reasonable to admit that, until a bracket system can have absolute individualization, the use of rectangular wires that still have a certain play with the bracket slot is advisable.

Effect of rearing technique over skeletal deformities incidence and osteological development in red porgy Pagrus pagrus (Linnaeus, 1758) larvae

[EN]Red porgy is a candidate species for marine aquaculture diversification.The objective of the present study was to describe the osteological development and the occurrence of skeletal deformities in Pagrus pagrus larvae in relation to the intensification of the rearing system. Fish samples were periodically collected along the development from hatching to juveniles (95days after hatching). Osteological development and the presence of skeleton abnormalities were evaluated. X-ray studies revealed a high number of fish (Semi-intensive:38.8%; Intensive:46.5 %) with skeletal deformities. No significant interaction was found on the incidence of lordosis and fused vertebrae with the rearing tecnique. However, cranial abnormalities and kyphosis incidences were significantly higher in intensive system cultured red porgy. Also, the position of fused vertebrae in this fish was located mainly in the caudal area instead of pre-hemal area for semi-intensive system reared red porgy. Present results, suggest a relationship among feeding sequence, osteological development and deformity incidence and location in red porgy larvae

Development of musculoskeletal models for the design and the pre-clinical validation of hip resurfacing prosthesis

Background. The surgical treatment of dysfunctional hips is a severe condition for the patient and a costly therapy for the public health. Hip resurfacing techniques seem to hold the promise of various advantages over traditional THR, with particular attention to young and active patients. Although the lesson provided in the past by many branches of engineering is that success in designing competitive products can be achieved only by predicting the possible scenario of failure, to date the understanding of the implant quality is poorly pre-clinically addressed. Thus revision is the only delayed and reliable end point for assessment. The aim of the present work was to model the musculoskeletal system so as to develop a protocol for predicting failure of hip resurfacing prosthesis. Methods. Preliminary studies validated the technique for the generation of subject specific finite element (FE) models of long bones from Computed Thomography data. The proposed protocol consisted in the numerical analysis of the prosthesis biomechanics by deterministic and statistic studies so as to assess the risk of biomechanical failure on the different operative conditions the implant might face in a population of interest during various activities of daily living. Physiological conditions were defined including the variability of the anatomy, bone densitometry, surgery uncertainties and published boundary conditions at the hip. The protocol was tested by analysing a successful design on the market and a new prototype of a resurfacing prosthesis. Results. The intrinsic accuracy of models on bone stress predictions (RMSE < 10%) was aligned to the current state of the art in this field. The accuracy of prediction on the bone-prosthesis contact mechanics was also excellent (< 0.001 mm). The sensitivity of models prediction to uncertainties on modelling parameter was found below 8.4%. The analysis of the successful design resulted in a very good agreement with published retrospective studies. The geometry optimisation of the new prototype lead to a final design with a low risk of failure. The statistical analysis confirmed the minimal risk of the optimised design over the entire population of interest. The performances of the optimised design showed a significant improvement with respect to the first prototype (+35%). Limitations. On the authors opinion the major limitation of this study is on boundary conditions. The muscular forces and the hip joint reaction were derived from the few data available in the literature, which can be considered significant but hardly representative of the entire variability of boundary conditions the implant might face over the patients population. This moved the focus of the research on modelling the musculoskeletal system; the ongoing activity is to develop subject-specific musculoskeletal models of the lower limb from medical images. Conclusions. The developed protocol was able to accurately predict known clinical outcomes when applied to a well-established device and, to support the design optimisation phase providing important information on critical characteristics of the patients when applied to a new prosthesis. The presented approach does have a relevant generality that would allow the extension of the protocol to a large set of orthopaedic scenarios with minor changes. Hence, a failure mode analysis criterion can be considered a suitable tool in developing new orthopaedic devices.

Sviluppo di un tomografo multi-energy per lo studio pre-clinico di nuove metodiche diagnostiche finalizzate al riconoscimento precoce della patologia tumorale

A new multi-energy CT for small animals is being developed at the Physics Department of the University of Bologna, Italy. The system makes use of a set of quasi-monochromatic X-ray beams, with energy tunable in a range from 26 KeV to 72 KeV. These beams are produced by Bragg diffraction on a Highly Oriented Pyrolytic Graphite crystal. With quasi-monochromatic sources it is possible to perform multi-energy investigation in a more effective way, as compared with conventional X-ray tubes. Multi-energy techniques allow extracting physical information from the materials, such as effective atomic number, mass-thickness, density, that can be used to distinguish and quantitatively characterize the irradiated tissues. The aim of the system is the investigation and the development of new pre-clinic methods for the early detection of the tumors in small animals. An innovative technique, the Triple-Energy Radiography with Contrast Medium (TER), has been successfully implemented on our system. TER consist in combining a set of three quasi-monochromatic images of an object, in order to obtain a corresponding set of three single-tissue images, which are the mass-thickness map of three reference materials. TER can be applied to the quantitative mass-thickness-map reconstruction of a contrast medium, because it is able to remove completely the signal due to other tissues (i.e. the structural background noise). The technique is very sensitive to the contrast medium and is insensitive to the superposition of different materials. The method is a good candidate to the early detection of the tumor angiogenesis in mice. In this work we describe the tomographic system, with a particular focus on the quasi-monochromatic source. Moreover the TER method is presented with some preliminary results about small animal imaging.

Advanced signal and receiver design for next generation OFDM systems

This thesis deal with the design of advanced OFDM systems. Both waveform and receiver design have been treated. The main scope of the Thesis is to study, create, and propose, ideas and novel design solutions able to cope with the weaknesses and crucial aspects of modern OFDM systems. Starting from the the transmitter side, the problem represented by low resilience to non-linear distortion has been assessed. A novel technique that considerably reduces the Peak-to-Average Power Ratio (PAPR) yielding a quasi constant signal envelope in the time domain (PAPR close to 1 dB) has been proposed.The proposed technique, named Rotation Invariant Subcarrier Mapping (RISM),is a novel scheme for subcarriers data mapping,where the symbols belonging to the modulation alphabet are not anchored, but maintain some degrees of freedom. In other words, a bit tuple is not mapped on a single point, rather it is mapped onto a geometrical locus, which is totally or partially rotation invariant. The final positions of the transmitted complex symbols are chosen by an iterative optimization process in order to minimize the PAPR of the resulting OFDM symbol. Numerical results confirm that RISM makes OFDM usable even in severe non-linear channels. Another well known problem which has been tackled is the vulnerability to synchronization errors. Indeed in OFDM system an accurate recovery of carrier frequency and symbol timing is crucial for the proper demodulation of the received packets. In general, timing and frequency synchronization is performed in two separate phases called PRE-FFT and POST-FFT synchronization. Regarding the PRE-FFT phase, a novel joint symbol timing and carrier frequency synchronization algorithm has been presented. The proposed algorithm is characterized by a very low hardware complexity, and, at the same time, it guarantees very good performance in in both AWGN and multipath channels. Regarding the POST-FFT phase, a novel approach for both pilot structure and receiver design has been presented. In particular, a novel pilot pattern has been introduced in order to minimize the occurrence of overlaps between two pattern shifted replicas. This allows to replace conventional pilots with nulls in the frequency domain, introducing the so called Silent Pilots. As a result, the optimal receiver turns out to be very robust against severe Rayleigh fading multipath and characterized by low complexity. Performance of this approach has been analytically and numerically evaluated. Comparing the proposed approach with state of the art alternatives, in both AWGN and multipath fading channels, considerable performance improvements have been obtained. The crucial problem of channel estimation has been thoroughly investigated, with particular emphasis on the decimation of the Channel Impulse Response (CIR) through the selection of the Most Significant Samples (MSSs). In this contest our contribution is twofold, from the theoretical side, we derived lower bounds on the estimation mean-square error (MSE) performance for any MSS selection strategy,from the receiver design we proposed novel MSS selection strategies which have been shown to approach these MSE lower bounds, and outperformed the state-of-the-art alternatives. Finally, the possibility of using of Single Carrier Frequency Division Multiple Access (SC-FDMA) in the Broadband Satellite Return Channel has been assessed. Notably, SC-FDMA is able to improve the physical layer spectral efficiency with respect to single carrier systems, which have been used so far in the Return Channel Satellite (RCS) standards. However, it requires a strict synchronization and it is also sensitive to phase noise of local radio frequency oscillators. For this reason, an effective pilot tone arrangement within the SC-FDMA frame, and a novel Joint Multi-User (JMU) estimation method for the SC-FDMA, has been proposed. As shown by numerical results, the proposed scheme manages to satisfy strict synchronization requirements and to guarantee a proper demodulation of the received signal.

Mimicking the pre-hairpin intermediate of gp41

A novel screening platform for potential retroviral fusion inhibitors on the basis of fully functional membrane‐anchored coiled coil lipopeptide receptors has been established. The work comprises the scrutiny of lateral organization of functional lipids in phase separated bilayers and an in‐depth investigation of the biophysical properties of lipopeptide‐based receptors. Lateral sorting of lipids was detected by the recognition of streptavidin of biotinylated lipids in phase separated bilayers and by nanoscopic patterns in mixed fluorocarbon / hydrocarbon lipid bilayers, employing temperature controlled atomic force microscopy (AFM) as a versatile characterization method. Particular features of fluorocarbon bilayers were additionally investigated in great detail by means of ellipsometry and ATR‐IR spectroscopy. Lipopeptide‐receptors were synthesized on the basis of a robust and reliable in situ coupling reaction by coupling terminal cysteine modified receptor‐peptides to a maleimide functionalized lipid bilayer. Receptor functionality of the lipopeptides was visualized by specific binding of vesicles and nanoparticles tracked by a multiplicity of characterization methods, such as AFM, ellipsometry, CLSM and fluorescence spectroscopy. Finally, in situ coupling of viral peptides, originating from the fusion protein of HIV resulted in a mimic of the pre‐hairpin intermediate of gp41. Structural analysis of N36‐lipopepides by means of CD‐spectroscopy in combination with FT‐IR spectroscopy revealed a coiled coil assembly of lipopeptides, which render the aggregates fully functional receptors for potent fusion inhibitors. Thereby, reversible inhibitor binding of T20 and the corresponding C‐ peptides was detected by AFM and ellipsometry, rendering coiled coil lipopeptides a new promising technique for screening of retroviral fusion inhibitors.

Gestione pre, intra e post-operatoria del cane sottoposto ad ipofisectomia transfenoidale

L’approccio chirurgico agli adenomi ipofisari ACTH secernenti è la terapia d’elezione nell’uomo. L’ipofisectomia transfenoidale è invece una tecnica poco diffusa in ambito veterinario. La terapia più diffusa nel cane con ipercortisolismo ipofisi dipendente (PDH) è di tipo medico e prevede la somministrazione di farmaci inibitori della sintesi del cortisolo. Gli adenomi ipofisari possono aumentare di volume e determinare una conseguente sintomatologia neurologica; in questi casi le uniche opzioni terapeutiche sono rappresentate dall’asportazione chirurgica della neoplasia e dalla radioterapia. Nella presente tesi vengono descritti 8 interventi di ipofisectomia transfenoidale effettuati su 7 cani con macroadenoma ipofisario presso il Dipartimento di Scienze Mediche Veterinarie dell’Università di Bologna. La difficoltà maggiore per il chirurgo è rappresentata dalla localizzazione della fossa ipofisaria rispetto ai punti di repere visibile in tomografia computerizzata o in risonanza magnetica nucleare, oltre ai problemi di sanguinamento durante la rimozione della neoplasia. Nel periodo post-operatorio maggiori complicazioni si riscontrano in soggetti con adenomi ipofisari di maggiori dimensioni. Al contrario, in presenza di adenomi di dimensioni più contenute, la ripresa post-operatoria risulta più rapida e il tasso di successo maggiore. Al fine di poter eseguire nel cane l’exeresi mirata della sola neoplasia ipofisaria, al pari di quanto avviene nell’uomo, è stato condotto uno studio sulla tomografia computerizzata (TC) in 86 cani con PDH. Il protocollo TC non ha tuttavia permesso di individuare con precisione la posizione della neoplasia per guidare il chirurgo nella sua rimozione. In due casi riportati nel presente lavoro si è verificata una recidiva della neoplasia ipofisaria. In un soggetto si è optato per il reintervento, mentre nell’altro caso per la radioterapia. Entrambe le opzioni hanno garantito una buona qualità di vita per più di un anno dall’intervento terapeutico. Questi casi clinici dimostrano come il reintervento e la radioterapia possano essere considerate valide opzioni in caso di recidiva.

Incorporation of a preexisting scar in the star-flap technique for nipple reconstruction

This report describes the authors' currently favored method of nipple reconstruction in cases of a pre-existing scar on the breast mound that passes through the intended site of nipple reconstruction.

New aspects of airway mechanics in pre-term infants

High-frequency respiratory impedance data measured noninvasively by the high-speed interrupter technique (HIT), particularly the first antiresonance frequency (f(ar,1)), is related to airway wall mechanics. The aim of this study was to evaluate the feasibility and repeatability of HIT in unsedated pre-term infants, and to compare values of f(ar,1) from 18 pre-term (post-conceptional age 32-37 weeks, weight 1,730-2,910 g) and 18 full-term infants (42-47 weeks, 3,920-5,340 g). Among the pre-term infants, there was good short-term repeatability of f(ar,1) within a single sleep epoch (mean (sd) coefficient of variance: 8 (1.7)%), but 95% limits of agreement for repeated measures of f(ar,1) after 3-8 h were relatively wide (-41 Hz; 37 Hz). f(ar,1) was significantly lower in pre-term infants (199 versus 257 Hz), indicating that wave propagation characteristics in pre-term airways are different from those of full-term infants. The present authors suggest that this is consistent with developmental differences in airway wall structure and compliance, including the influence of the surrounding tissue. Since flow limitation is determined by wave propagation velocity and airway cross-sectional area, it was hypothesised that the physical ability of the airways to carry large flows is fundamentally different in pre-term than in full-term infants.

Clay mineral and heavy metal composition of sea-bed surface sediments and pre-Holocene sediment samples taken during POLARSTERN cruise ANT-XXIII/9

Surface mineralogical compositions and their association to modern processes are well known from the east Atlantic and south-west Indian sectors of the Southern Ocean, but data from the interface of these areas - the Prydz Bay-Kerguelen region - is still missing. The objective of our study was to provide mineralogical data of reference samples from this region and to relate these mineralogical assemblages to hinterland geology, weathering, transport and depositional processes. Clay mineral assemblages were analysed by means of X-ray diffraction technique. Heavy mineral assemblages were determined by counting of gravity-separated grains under a polarizing microscope. Results show that by use of clay mineral assemblages four mineralogical provinces can be subdivided: i) continental shelf, ii) continental slope, iii) deep sea, iv) Kerguelen Plateau. Heavy mineral assemblages in the fine sand fraction are relatively uniform except for samples taken from the East Antarctic shelf. Our findings show that mineralogical studies on sediment cores from the study area have the potential to provide insights into past shifts in ice-supported transport and activity and provenance of different water masses (e.g. Antarctic slope current and deep western boundary current) in the Prydz Bay-Kerguelen region.

Messinian and pre-Messinian sediments of ODP Holes 107-652A and 107-654A

Sedimentology, mineralogy, and petrology of the pre-Pliocene sediments drilled at ODP Sites 652 and 654 in the Tyrrhenian Sea (Leg 107) have been studied with emphasis on the lower Messinian to pre-Messinian intervals. Messinian at Site 652 is essentially turbiditic and basinal in character; it was deposited during the syn-rift phase in a strongly subsiding half-graben and is correlatable with emerged coeval sequences; in part with the Laga Formation of the foredeep of Apennines, and in part with the filling of grabens dissecting that chain in the Tyrrhenian portion of Tuscany. The sequence found in Site 654 indicates an upper Tortonian to Messinian transgression accompanying crustal stretching in the western Tyrrhenian Sea and is perfectly correlatable with the so-called "Sahelian cycle" and with "postorogenic" cycles recognized in peninsular Italy and in Sicily.

(Supplement) Groundwater quality in Lahore Pakistan: emphasis on Arsenic and Fluoride levels

The dataset provides detailed information on the study that was conducted in Lahore's 7 major towns. The sample was taken from 472 tubewells and analyzed for major cations and anions using APHA 2012 techniques as explained herein. Besides, E.coli determination was done to check for microbial contamination. The data includes results from PHREEQC modeling of As(III)/ As(V) species and saturation indices as well as Aquachem's computed hydrochemical water facies. The WHO (2011) and EPA standards included in Aquachem identified the parameters that where in violation. Bicarbonates dominated the groundwater types with 50.21% of the samples exceeding the EPA maximum permissible limit of 250 mg/L in drinking water. Similarly, 30.51% of the samples had TDS values greater than 500 mg/L while 85.38 % of the samples exceed 10 µg/L threshold limit value of arsenic. Also, instances of high magnesium hazard values were observed which requires constant assessment if the groundwater is used for irrigation. Higher than 50% MH values are detrimental to crops which may reduce the expected yields. The membrane filtration technique using m-Endo Agar indicated that 3.59% samples had TNC (too numerous to count) values for E.coli while 5.06% showed values higher than 0 cfu/ 100 ml acceptable value in drinking water. Any traces of E-coli in a groundwater sample indicate recent fecal contamination. Such outcomes signify presence of enteric pathogens. If the groundwater is not properly dosed with disinfectants it may cause harm to human health. It is concluded that more studies are needed and proper groundwater management implement to safeguard the lives of communities that depend solely on groundwater in the city.

Training-induced changes in drag-flick technique in female field hockey players

The penalty corner is one of the most important goal plays in field hockey. The drag-flick is used less by women than men in a penalty corner. The aim of this study was to describe training-induced changes in the drag-flick technique in female field hockey players. Four female players participated in the study. The VICON optoelectronic system (Oxford Metrics, Oxford, UK) measured the kinematic parameters of the drag-flick with six cameras sampling at 250 Hz, prior to and after training. Fifteen shots were captured for each subject. A Wilcoxon test assessed the differences between pre-training and post-training parameters. Two players received specific training twice a week for 8 weeks; the other two players did not train. The proposed drills improved the position of the stick at the beginning of the shot (p<0.05), the total distance of the shot (p<0.05)and the rotation radius at ball release (p<0.01). It was noted that all players had lost speed of the previous run. Further studies should include a larger sample, in order to provide more information on field hockey performance.

Diseño y aplicación de una metodología prospectiva para la determinación de los condicionantes futuros del crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores

Durante las últimas décadas se observa una tendencia sostenida al crecimiento en las dimensiones de los grandes buques portacontenedores, que produce, que las infraestructuras portuarias y otras destinadas al tráfico de contenedores deban adaptarse para poder brindar los servicios correspondientes y mantenerse competitivas con otras para no perder el mercado. Esta situación implica importantes inversiones y modificaciones en los sistemas de transporte de contenedores por el gran volumen de carga que se debe mover en un corto periodo de tiempo, lo que genera la necesidad de tomar previsiones relacionadas con la probable evolución a futuro de las dimensiones que alcanzarán los grandes buques portacontenedores. En relación a los aspectos citados surge la inquietud de determinar los condicionantes futuros del crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores, con una visión totalizadora de todos los factores que incidirán en los próximos años, ya sea como un freno o un impulso a la tendencia que se verifica en el pasado y en el presente. En consideración a que el tema a tratar y resolver se encuentra en el futuro, con un horizonte de predicción de veinte años, se diseña y se aplica una metodología prospectiva, que permite alcanzar conclusiones con mayor grado de objetividad sobre probables escenarios futuros. La metodología prospectiva diseñada, conjuga distintas herramientas metodológicas, cualitativas, semi-cuantitativas y cuantitativas que se validan entre sí. Sobre la base del pasado y el presente, las herramientas cuantitativas permiten encontrar relaciones entre variables y hacer proyecciones, sin embargo, estas metodologías pierden validez más allá de los tres a cuatro años, por los vertiginosos y dinámicos cambios que se producen actualmente, en las áreas política, social y económica. Las metodologías semi-cuantitativas y cualitativas, empleadas en forma conjunta e integradas, permiten el análisis de circunstancias del pasado y del presente, obteniendo resultados cuantitativos que se pueden proyectar hacia un futuro cercano, los que integrados en estudios cualitativos proporcionan resultados a largo plazo, facilitando considerar variables cualitativas como la creciente preocupación por la preservación del medio ambiente y la piratería. La presente tesis, tiene como objetivo principal “identificar los condicionantes futuros del crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores y determinar sus escenarios”. Para lo cual, la misma se estructura en fases consecutivas y que se retroalimentan continuamente. Las tres primeras fases son un enfoque sobre el pasado y el presente, que establece el problema a resolver. Se estudian los antecedentes y el estado del conocimiento en relación a los factores y circunstancias que motivaron y facilitaron la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques. También se estudia el estado del conocimiento de las metodologías para predecir el futuro y se diseña de una metodología prospectiva. La cuarta fase, denominada Resultados, se desarrolla en distintas etapas, fundamentadas en las fases anteriores, con el fin de resolver el problema dando respuestas a las preguntas que se formularon para alcanzar el objetivo fijado. En el proceso de esta fase, con el objeto de predecir probables futuros, se aplica la metodología prospectiva diseñada, que contempla el análisis del pasado y el presente, que determina los factores cuya influencia provocó el crecimiento en dimensiones de los grandes buques hasta la actualidad, y que constituye la base para emplear los métodos prospectivos que permiten determinar qué factores condicionarán en el futuro la evolución de los grandes buques. El probable escenario futuro formado por los factores determinados por el criterio experto, es validado mediante un modelo cuantitativo dinámico, que además de obtener el probable escenario futuro basado en las tendencias de comportamiento hasta el presente de los factores determinantes considerados, permite estudiar distintos probables escenarios futuros en función de considerar un cambio en la tendencia futura de los factores determinantes. El análisis del pasado indica que la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores hasta el presente, se ha motivado por un crecimiento económico mundial que se tradujo en un aumento del comercio internacional, particularmente entre los países de Asia, con Europa y Estados Unidos. Esta tendencia se ha visto favorecida por el factor globalización y la acelerada evolución tecnológica que ha permitido superar los obstáculos que se presentaron. Es de destacar que aún en periodos de crisis económicas, con pronósticos de contracciones en el comercio, en los últimos años continuó la tendencia al crecimiento en dimensiones, en busca de una economía de escala para el transporte marítimo de contenedores, en las rutas transoceánicas. La investigación de la evolución de los grandes buques portacontenedores en el futuro, se efectúa mediante el empleo de una metodología prospectiva en la que el criterio experto se valida con un método cuantitativo dinámico, y además se fundamenta en una solida base pre-prospectiva. La metodología diseñada permite evaluar con un alto grado de objetividad cuales serán los condicionantes que incidirán en el crecimiento en tamaño de los grandes buques portacontenedores en el escenario con mayor probabilidad de acontecer en los próximos veinte años (2032), y también en otros escenarios que podrían presentarse en el caso de que los factores modifiquen su tendencia o bien se produzcan hechos aleatorios. El resultado se sintetiza en que la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores en los próximos 20 años se verá condicionada por factores en relación a los conceptos de oferta (los que facilitan u obstaculizan la tendencia), demanda (los que motivan o impulsan la tendencia) y factores externos (los que desestabilizan el equilibrio entre oferta y demanda). La tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores se verá obstaculizada / limitada principalmente por factores relacionados a las infraestructuras, resultando los pasos y/o canales vinculados a las rutas marítimas, los limitantes futuros al crecimiento en dimensiones de los grandes buques portacontenedores; y la interacción buque / infraestructura (grúas) un factor que tenderá a obstaculizar esta tendencia de los grandes portacontenedores. El desarrollo económico mundial que estimula el comercio internacional y los factores precio del petróleo y condicionantes medioambientales impulsarán la tendencia al crecimiento de los grandes buques portacontenedores. Recent years have seen a sustained tendency towards the growth in the dimensions of large container ships. This has meant that port and other infrastructure used for container traffic has had to be adapted in order to provide the required services and to maintain a competitive position, so as not to lose market share. This situation implies the need for major investments in modifications to the container transport system, on account of the large volume of traffic to be handled in a short period of time. This in turn has generated a need to make provision for the probable future evolution of the ultimate dimensions that will be reached by large container ships. Such considerations give rise to the question of what are the future determinants for the growth of large container ships, requiring an overall vision of all the factors that will apply in future years, whether as a brake on or an incentive to the growth tendency which has been seen in the past and present In view of the fact that the theme to be dealt with and resolved relates to the future, with a forecasting horizon of some 20 years, a foresight methodology has been designed and applied so as to enable conclusions about probable future scenarios to be reached with a greater degree of objectivity. The designed methodology contains different methodological tools, both qualitative, semi-quantitative and quantitative, which are internally consistent. On the basis of past and present observations, the quantitative elements enable relationships to be established and forecasts to be made. Nevertheless such an approach loses validity more than three or four years into the future, on account of the very rapid and dynamic changes which may be seen at present in political, social and economic spheres. The semi-quantitative and qualitative methodologies are used coherently together and allow the analysis of past and present conditions, thus obtaining quantitative results which for short-term projections, which when integrated with the qualitative studies provide results for the long-term, facilitating the consideration of qualitative variables such as the increasing importance of environmental protection and the impact of piracy. The principal objective of the present thesis is "to identify the future conditions affecting the growth of large container ships and to determine possible scenarios". The thesis is structured in consecutive and related phases. The first three phases focus on the past and present in order to determine the problem to be resolved. The background is studied in order to establish the state of knowledge about the factors and circumstances which have motivated and facilitated the growth tendency for large container ships and the methodologies that have been used. In this way a specific foresight methodology is designed. The fourth phase, Results, is developed in distinct stages based on the previous phases, so as to resolve the problem posed and responding to the questions that arise. In this way the determined objective is reached. The fourth phase sees the application of the methodology that has been designed in order to predict posible futures. This includes analysis of the past and present factors which have caused the growth in the dimensions of large container ships up to the present. These provide the basis on which to apply the foresight methods which enable the future factors which will condition the development of such large container ships. The probable future scenarios are made up of the factors identified by expert judgement (using the Delphi technique) and validated by means of a dynamic quantitative model. This model both identifies the probable future scenarios based on past and present factors and enables the different future scenarios to be analysed as a function of future changes in the conditioning factors. Analysis of the past shows that the growth tendency up to the present for large container ships has been motivated by the growth of the world economy and the consequent increased international trade, especially between the countries of Asia with Europe and the United States. This tendency has been favoured by the trend towards globalization and by the rapid technical evolution in ship design, which has allowed the obstacles encountered to be overcome. It should be noted that even in periods of economic crisis, with an expectation for reduced trade, as experienced in recent years, the tendency towards increased ship dimensions has continued in search of economies of scale for the maritime transport of containers on transoceanic routes. The present investigation of the future evolution of large container ships has been done using a foresight methodology in which the expert judgement is validated by a dynamic quantitative methodology, founded on a firm pre-foresight analysis. The methodology that has been designed permits the evaluation, with a high degree of objectivity, of the future factors that will affect the growth of large container ships for the most probable scenario expected in the next 20 years (up to 2032). The evaluation applies also to other scenarios which may arise, in the event that their component factors are modified or indeed in the light of random events. In summary, the conclusión is that the tendency for growth in large container ships in the future 20 years will be determined by: factors related to supply, which slow or halt the tendency; factors related to demand, which encourage the tendency and finally, external factors which interrupt the equilibrium between supply and demand. The tendency for increasing growth in large container ships will be limited or even halted by factors related to infrastructure, including the natural and man-made straits and canals used by maritime transport. In addition the infrastructure required to serve such vessels both in port (including cranes and other equipment) and related transport, will tend to slow the growth tendency. The factors which will continue to encourage the tendency towards the growth of large container ships include world economic development, which stimulates international trade, and an increasing emphasis on environmental aspects.