Bayesian doubly optimal group sequential designs for randomized clinical trials

When conducting a randomized comparative clinical trial, ethical, scientific or economic considerations often motivate the use of interim decision rules after successive groups of patients have been treated. These decisions may pertain to the comparative efficacy or safety of the treatments under study, cost considerations, the desire to accelerate the drug evaluation process, or the likelihood of therapeutic benefit for future patients. At the time of each interim decision, an important question is whether patient enrollment should continue or be terminated; either due to a high probability that one treatment is superior to the other, or a low probability that the experimental treatment will ultimately prove to be superior. The use of frequentist group sequential decision rules has become routine in the conduct of phase III clinical trials. In this dissertation, we will present a new Bayesian decision-theoretic approach to the problem of designing a randomized group sequential clinical trial, focusing on two-arm trials with time-to-failure outcomes. Forward simulation is used to obtain optimal decision boundaries for each of a set of possible models. At each interim analysis, we use Bayesian model selection to adaptively choose the model having the largest posterior probability of being correct, and we then make the interim decision based on the boundaries that are optimal under the chosen model. We provide a simulation study to compare this method, which we call Bayesian Doubly Optimal Group Sequential (BDOGS), to corresponding frequentist designs using either O'Brien-Fleming (OF) or Pocock boundaries, as obtained from EaSt 2000. Our simulation results show that, over a wide variety of different cases, BDOGS either performs at least as well as both OF and Pocock, or on average provides a much smaller trial. ^

Bayesian adaptive designs in early phase clinical trials

There are two practical challenges in the phase I clinical trial conduct: lack of transparency to physicians, and the late onset toxicity. In my dissertation, Bayesian approaches are used to address these two problems in clinical trial designs. The proposed simple optimal designs cast the dose finding problem as a decision making process for dose escalation and deescalation. The proposed designs minimize the incorrect decision error rate to find the maximum tolerated dose (MTD). For the late onset toxicity problem, a Bayesian adaptive dose-finding design for drug combination is proposed. The dose-toxicity relationship is modeled using the Finney model. The unobserved delayed toxicity outcomes are treated as missing data and Bayesian data augment is employed to handle the resulting missing data. Extensive simulation studies have been conducted to examine the operating characteristics of the proposed designs and demonstrated the designs' good performances in various practical scenarios.^

WSRF-based modeling of clinical trial information for collaborative cancer research

The CancerGrid consortium is developing open-standards cancer informatics to address the challenges posed by modern cancer clinical trials. This paper presents the service-oriented software paradigm implemented in CancerGrid to derive clinical trial information management systems for collaborative cancer research across multiple institutions. Our proposal is founded on a combination of a clinical trial (meta)model and WSRF (Web Services Resource Framework), and is currently being evaluated for use in early phase trials. Although primarily targeted at cancer research, our approach is readily applicable to other areas for which a similar information model is available.

Conventional versus hypofractionated high-dose intensity-modulated radiotherapy for prostate cancer: 5-year outcomes of the randomised, non-inferiority, phase 3 CHHiP trial

BACKGROUND: Prostate cancer might have high radiation-fraction sensitivity that would give a therapeutic advantage to hypofractionated treatment. We present a pre-planned analysis of the efficacy and side-effects of a randomised trial comparing conventional and hypofractionated radiotherapy after 5 years follow-up.

METHODS: CHHiP is a randomised, phase 3, non-inferiority trial that recruited men with localised prostate cancer (pT1b-T3aN0M0). Patients were randomly assigned (1:1:1) to conventional (74 Gy delivered in 37 fractions over 7·4 weeks) or one of two hypofractionated schedules (60 Gy in 20 fractions over 4 weeks or 57 Gy in 19 fractions over 3·8 weeks) all delivered with intensity-modulated techniques. Most patients were given radiotherapy with 3-6 months of neoadjuvant and concurrent androgen suppression. Randomisation was by computer-generated random permuted blocks, stratified by National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) risk group and radiotherapy treatment centre, and treatment allocation was not masked. The primary endpoint was time to biochemical or clinical failure; the critical hazard ratio (HR) for non-inferiority was 1·208. Analysis was by intention to treat. Long-term follow-up continues. The CHHiP trial is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial, number ISRCTN97182923.

FINDINGS: Between Oct 18, 2002, and June 17, 2011, 3216 men were enrolled from 71 centres and randomly assigned (74 Gy group, 1065 patients; 60 Gy group, 1074 patients; 57 Gy group, 1077 patients). Median follow-up was 62·4 months (IQR 53·9-77·0). The proportion of patients who were biochemical or clinical failure free at 5 years was 88·3% (95% CI 86·0-90·2) in the 74 Gy group, 90·6% (88·5-92·3) in the 60 Gy group, and 85·9% (83·4-88·0) in the 57 Gy group. 60 Gy was non-inferior to 74 Gy (HR 0·84 [90% CI 0·68-1·03], pNI=0·0018) but non-inferiority could not be claimed for 57 Gy compared with 74 Gy (HR 1·20 [0·99-1·46], pNI=0·48). Long-term side-effects were similar in the hypofractionated groups compared with the conventional group. There were no significant differences in either the proportion or cumulative incidence of side-effects 5 years after treatment using three clinician-reported as well as patient-reported outcome measures. The estimated cumulative 5 year incidence of Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) grade 2 or worse bowel and bladder adverse events was 13·7% (111 events) and 9·1% (66 events) in the 74 Gy group, 11·9% (105 events) and 11·7% (88 events) in the 60 Gy group, 11·3% (95 events) and 6·6% (57 events) in the 57 Gy group, respectively. No treatment-related deaths were reported.

INTERPRETATION: Hypofractionated radiotherapy using 60 Gy in 20 fractions is non-inferior to conventional fractionation using 74 Gy in 37 fractions and is recommended as a new standard of care for external-beam radiotherapy of localised prostate cancer.

FUNDING: Cancer Research UK, Department of Health, and the National Institute for Health Research Cancer Research Network.

3531: Neoadjuvant radiotherapy (RT) combined with capecitabine (Cape) and sorafenib (Sor) in patients (pts) with locally advanced, k-ras-mutated rectal cancer (LARC): A phase I/II trial SAKK 41/08

Background: K-ras mutation is found in up to 40% of LARC. Sor is a multitarget tyrosine kinase inhibitor including raf and VEGFR and has demonstrated radiosensitizing effects. Sor might improve outcome of standard preoperative radio-chemotherapy in patients with k-ras mutated LARC. Methods: Pts with k-ras mutated T3-4 and/or N+, M0 disease by MRI were included. Recommended doses from phase I part consisted of RT 1.8 Gy/day x25 with Cape 825mg/m2bid x 33 in combination with Sor 400mg/d. The primary endpoint for the phase II part was pathological complete response (pCR) prospectively defined as grade 3 (near complete regression) or 4 (complete regression) in the histological grading system according to Dworak (DC). A pCR rate of 8% or lower was considered uninteresting and of 22% or higher was promising. Secondary endpoints included sphincter preservation, R0 resection, downstaging and safety. Results: 54 pts were treated in 18 centers in Switzerland und Hungary, 40 pts were included into the single arm phase II part. Median dose intensity per day was 100.0% for RT, 98.6% for Cape and 100.0% for Sor respectively. pCR rate was 60.0% (95%CI: 43.3%, 75.1%) by central independent pathological review (15.0% DC grade 4; 45.0% DC grade 3). Sphincter preservation was achieved in 89.5%, R0 resection in 94.7% and downstaging in 81.6% of the pts. The most common grade 3 toxicities included diarrhea (15.0%), skin toxicity outside of the RT field (12.5%), pain (7.5%), skin toxicity in RT field, proctitis, fatigue and cardiac ischemia (each 5.0%). Laboratory AEs grade 3/4 were neutropenia (1 pt grade 4; 1 grade 3), creatinine elevation (1 pt grade 3). Conclusions: The combination of Sor to standard RCT with Cape in k-ras mutated LARC tumors is highly active with acceptable toxicity and deserves further investigation.

Efficacy and safety of patisiran for familial amyloidotic polyneuropathy: a phase II multi-dose study

BACKGROUND: Transthyretin-mediated amyloidosis is an inherited, progressively debilitating disease caused by mutations in the transthyretin gene. This study evaluated the safety, tolerability, pharmacokinetics, and pharmacodynamics of multiple doses of patisiran (ALN-TTR02), a small interfering RNA encapsulated within lipid nanoparticles, in patients with transthyretin-mediated familial amyloid polyneuropathy (FAP).

MRI indices of functional recovery following intracerebral implantation of a human neural stem cell line in a pre-clinical model of ischaemic stroke

Stem cell therapy for ischaemic stroke is an emerging field in light of an increasing number of patients surviving with permanent disability. Several allogenic and autologous cells types are now in clinical trials with preliminary evidence of safety. Some clinical studies have reported functional improvements in some patients. After initial safety evaluation in a Phase 1 study, the conditionally immortalised human neural stem cell line CTX0E03 is currently in a Phase 2 clinical trial (PISCES-II). Previous pre-clinical studies conducted by ReNeuron Ltd, showed evidence of functional recovery in the Bilateral Asymmetry test up to 6 weeks following transplantation into rodent brain, 4 weeks after middle cerebral artery occlusion. Resting-state fMRI is increasingly used to investigate brain function in health and disease, and may also act as a predictor of recovery due to known network changes in the post-stroke recovery period. Resting-state methods have also been applied to non-human primates and rodents which have been found to have analogous resting-state networks to humans. The sensorimotor resting-state network of rodents is impaired following experimental focal ischaemia of the middle cerebral artery territory. However, the effects of stem cell implantation on brain functional networks has not previously been investigated. Prior studies assessed sensorimotor function following sub-cortical implantation of CTX0E03 cells in the rodent post-stroke brain but with no MRI assessments of functional improvements. This thesis presents research on the effect of sub-cortical implantation of CTX0E03 cells on the resting- state sensorimotor network and sensorimotor deficits in the rat following experimental stroke, using protocols based on previous work with this cell line. The work in this thesis identified functional tests of appropriate sensitivity for long-term dysfunction suitable for this laboratory, and investigated non-invasive monitoring of physiological variables required to optimize BOLD signal stability within a high-field MRI scanner. Following experimental stroke, rats demonstrated expected sensorimotor dysfunction and changes in the resting-state sensorimotor network. CTX0E03 cells did not improve post-stroke functional outcome (compared to previous studies) and with no changes in resting-state sensorimotor network activity. However, in control animals, we observed changes in functional networks due to the stereotaxic procedure. This illustrates the sensitivity of resting-state fMRI to stereotaxic procedures. We hypothesise that the damage caused by cell or vehicle implantation may have prevented functional and network recovery which has not been previously identified due to the application of different functional tests. The findings in this thesis represent one of few pre-clinical studies in resting-state fMRI network changes post-stroke and the only to date applying this technique to evaluate functional outcomes following a clinically applicable human neural stem cell treatment for ischaemic stroke. It was found that injury caused by stereotaxic injection should be taken into account when assessing the effectiveness of treatment.

Flixweed vs. Polyethylene Glycol in the Treatment of Childhood Functional Constipation: A Randomized Clinical Trial

Background: Polyethylene glycol (PEG) is often considered as the first-line treatment for functional constipation in children. Descurainia sophia (L.) Webb et Berth (D. sophia) is a safe recommended medicine in Iranian folk and Traditional Persian Medicine for the treatment of constipation. Objectives: To clinically compare D. sophia with PEG 4000 (without electrolyte) in pediatric constipation and to assess its efficacy and side effects. Patients and Methods: 120 patients aged 2 - 12 years with constipation for at least 3 months were included in an 8 weeks lasting randomized controlled trial within two parallel-groups. Children received either PEG, 0.4 g/kg/day, or D. sophia seeds, 2 grams (for children aged 2 - 4 years) and 3 grams (for those aged > 4 years) per day. Results: A total of 109 patients completed the study (56 in D. sophia and 53 in PEG group). At the end of the study, 36 (64.3%) patients in D. sophia group and 29 (54.7%) in PEG group were out of Rome III criteria (P = 0.205). Median weekly stool frequency in 0, 1, 2, 3 weeks of the treatment was found to be 2, 5, 5, 5 in D. sophia and 3, 4, 4, 5 in PEG group (P = 0.139, 0.076, 0.844, 0.294), respectively. The number of patients who suffered flatulence was less (5, 8.9%) in D. sophia group as compared to PEG group (6, 11.3%) at the end of the trial (P = 0.461). D. sophia taste was less tolerated. Conclusions: D. sophia is introduced as a cheap and available medication which can be applied as a safe alternative to conventional PEG in the management of pediatric chronic functional constipation.

Tesofensine : a novel potent weight loss medicine

Background: The incidence of obesity is increasing; this is of major concern, as obesity is associated with cardiovascular disease, stroke, type 2 diabetes, respiratory tract disease, and cancer. Objectives/methods: This evaluation is of a Phase II clinical trial with tesofensine in obese subjects. Results: After 26 weeks, tesofensine caused a significant weight loss, and may have a higher maximal ability to reduce weight than the presently available anti-obesity agents. However, tesofensine also increased blood pressure and heart rate, and may increase psychiatric disorders. Conclusions: It is encouraging that tesofensine 0.5 mg may cause almost double the weight loss observed with sibutramine or rimonabant. As tesofensine and sibutramine have similar pharmacological profiles, it would be of interest to compare the weight loss with tesofensine in a head-to-head clinical trial with sibutramine, to properly assess their comparative potency. Also, as teso fensine 0.5 mg increases heart rate, as well as increasing the incidence of adverse effects such as nausea, drug mouth, flatulence, insomnia, and depressed mode, its tolerability needs to be further evaluated in large Phase III clinical trials.

Clinical trial of the Norton Scale in acute care settings

This study investigated the effect of using Norton Scale assessment data in the nursing care of patients at risk of developing pressure ulcers. The results indicated that incorporating the Norton Scale in care planning resulted in benefits to patients through earlier and more effective nursing interventions.

Randomized controlled trial : a randomized controlled clinical trial comparing a remineralizing paste with an antibacterial gel to prevent early childhood caries

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to compare twice daily tooth-brushing using 0.304 percent fluoride toothpaste alone with: (1) twice daily tooth-brushing plus once daily 10% casein phosphopeptide-amorphous calcium phosphate (CPP-ACP) paste; and (2) twice daily tooth-brushing plus once daily 0.12% chlorhexidine gel (CHX) for reducing early childhood caries (ECC) and mutans streptococci (MS) colonization. METHODS: Subjects (n=622) recruited at birth were randomized to receive either CPP-ACP or CHX or no product (study control [SC]). All children were examined at 6, 12, and 18 months old in their homes, and at 24 months old in a community dental clinic. RESULTS: At 24 months old, the caries incidence was 1% (2/163) in CPP-ACP, 2% (4/180) in CHX, and 2% (3/188) in SC groups. In children who were previously MS colonized at 12 and 18 months old, 0% (0/11) and 5% (3/63), respectively, of the CPP-ACP group remained MS-positive versus 22% (2/9) and 72% (18/25) in CHX and 16% (4/25) and 50% (7/14) in SC groups (P<.001). CONCLUSIONS: There is insufficient evidence to justify the daily use of casein phosphopeptide-amorphous calcium phosphate or chlorhexidine gel to control early childhood caries.

A randomised, controlled clinical trial comparing chlorhexidine gel and low-dose fluoride toothpaste to prevent early childhood caries

Objectives This randomised, controlled trial compared the effectiveness of 0.12% chlorhexidine (CHX) gel and 304% fluoride toothpaste to prevent early childhood caries (ECC) in a birth cohort by 24 months. Methods The participants were randomised to receive either (i) twice daily toothbrushing with toothpaste and once daily 0.12% CHX gel (n = 110) or (ii) twice daily toothbrushing with toothpaste only (study controls) (n = 89). The primary outcome measured was caries incidence and the secondary outcome was percentage of children with mutans streptococci (MS). All mothers were contacted by telephone at 6, 12, and 18 months. At 24 months, all children were examined at a community dental clinic. Results At 24 months, the caries prevalence was 5% (3/61) in the CHX and 7% (4/58) in the controls (P = 0.7). There were no differences in percentages of MS-positive children between the CHX and control groups (54%vs 53%). Only 20% applied the CHX gel once daily and 80% less than once daily. Conclusions Toothbrushing using 304% fluoride toothpaste with or without the application of chlorhexidine gel (0.12%) reduces ECC from 23% found in the general community to 5–7%. The lack of effect with chlorhexidine is likely to be due to low compliance.