Evaluación sensorial de mermeladas de tomate de color no tradicional

Nuevas cultivares de tomate, de colores distintos al tradicional rojo, se adaptan a la elaboración de productos alternativos, como las confituras. Se estudió la aceptabilidad por parte del consumidor de mermeladas elaboradas con las variedades Victoria FCA, Don Armando FCA y Santa Rosa FCA. Sus frutos: amarillos, anaranjados y rojos, respectivamente, fueron caracterizados por color, peso, acidez: titulable y potencial, y sólidos solubles. Las mermeladas, aromatizadas con clavo de olor, se elaboraron en una planta experimental hasta concentración 67-69 % de sólidos solubles. Un panel de 39 consumidores -clasificados en menores y mayores de 30 años- evaluó aspecto, color, aroma, textura y sabor, aplicando escalas no estructuradas. Las evaluaciones de ambos grupos fueron distintas. Para todas las características sensoriales la prueba de Friedman indicó diferencias entre los tres productos (a = 0,001). En una escala para cinco categorías, más del 50 % de los jueces consideraron las tres mermeladas en las categorías más altas: me gusta y me gusta mucho. El análisis de los datos categóricos de preferencia otorgó el primer lugar a la variedad roja, seguida por la anaranjada y la amarilla. Podría existir un segmento de consumidores interesados en el desarrollo de confituras de tomate amarillo, pero en el caso específico de la mermelada, tuvo mayor aceptabilidad el producto de color igual o parecido al tradicional.

Economic crisis and tourism competitiveness in Spain: permanent effects or transitory shocks?

This paper considers the influence of business cycles and economic crises on Spain's tourism competitiveness. This competitiveness is measured by its share in world tourism. Analysing the presence of unit roots in the market share series from 1958 to 2010, the permanent effects of economic crises on competitiveness are evaluated. The evidence from standard linear unit root tests indicates that crises on Spanish market shares are highly persistent. When we account for endogenously determined structural breaks, we obtain greater support for stationarity, but breakpoints are identified with major economic crises. Therefore the main conclusion obtained is that the effects of the economic shocks are not neutral on competitiveness, with the negative effects being more persistent in highly intensive crises. These crises reinforce a natural downward trend of the Spanish world tourism market share caused by the natural emergence of new competing destinations and by the maturity of the Spain's principal tourism product.

Nonstationary brand variables in category management: A cointegration perspective

Category-management models serve to assist in the development of plans for pricing and promotions of individual brands. Techniques to solve the models can have problems of accuracy and interpretability because they are susceptible to spurious regression problems due to nonstationary time-series data. Improperly stated nonstationary systems can reduce the accuracy of the forecasts and undermine the interpretation of the results. This is problematic because recent studies indicate that sales are often a nonstationary time-series. Newly developed correction techniques can account for nonstationarity by incorporating error-correction terms into the model when using a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model. The benefit of using such a technique is that shocks to control variates can be separated into permanent and temporary effects and allow cointegration of series for analysis purposes. Analysis of a brand data set indicates that this is important even at the brand level. Thus, additional information is generated that allows a decision maker to examine controllable variables in terms of whether they influence sales over a short or long duration. Only products that are nonstationary in sales volume can be manipulated for long-term profit gain, and promotions must be cointegrated with brand sales volume. The brand data set is used to explore the capabilities and interpretation of cointegration.

Vector Error-Correction Models in a consumer packaged goods category forecasting decision support system

A framework for developing marketing category management decision support systems (DSS) based upon the Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) model is extended. Since the BVAR model is vulnerable to permanent and temporary shifts in purchasing patterns over time, a form that can correct for the shifts and still provide the other advantages of the BVAR is a Bayesian Vector Error-Correction Model (BVECM). We present the mechanics of extending the DSS to move from a BVAR model to the BVECM model for the category management problem. Several additional iterative steps are required in the DSS to allow the decision maker to arrive at the best forecast possible. The revised marketing DSS framework and model fitting procedures are described. Validation is conducted on a sample problem.

Early marketing matters:a time-varying parameter approach to persistence modeling

Are persistent marketing effects most likely to appear right after the introduction of a product? The authors give an affirmative answer to this question by developing a model that explicitly reports how persistent and transient marketing effects evolve over time. The proposed model provides managers with a valuable tool to evaluate their allocation of marketing expenditures over time. An application of the model to many pharmaceutical products, estimated through (exact initial) Kalman filtering, indicates that both persistent and transient effects occur predominantly immediately after a brand's introduction. Subsequently, the size of the effects declines. The authors theoretically and empirically compare their methodology with methodology based on unit root testing and demonstrate that the need for unit root tests creates difficulties in applying conventional persistence modeling. The authors recommend that marketing models should either accommodate persistent effects that change over time or be applied to mature brands or limited time windows only.

Az árfolyamsávok empirikus modelljei és a devizaárfolyam sávon belüli előrejelezhetetlensége = Empirical models of exchange rate target zones

A sávosan rögzített devizaárfolyamok elméleti és gyakorlati vizsgálatai a nemzetközi közgazdaságtan egyik legnépszerűbb témaköre volt a kilencvenes évek elején. A gyakorlati módszerek közül az alkalmazások és hivatkozások száma tekintetében az úgynevezett eltolódással igazítás módszere emelkedett ki. A módszert alkalmazó szerzők szerint amíg a lebegő árfolyamú devizák előrejelzése céltalan feladatnak tűnik, addig sávos árfolyam esetén az árfolyam sávon belüli helyzetének előrejelzése sikeresen végezhető. E tanulmány bemutatja, hogy az Európai Monetáris Rendszer és az északeurópai államok sávos árfolyamrendszereinél e módszer alkalmazásával adódott eredmények például a lebegő árfolyamú amerikai dollárra és az egységgyökfolyamatok többségére is érvényesek. A tanulmány feltárja e látszólagos ellentmondás okait, és bemutat egy olyan, a sávos árfolyamrendszerek főbb megfigyelt jellemzőire épülő modellt, amelynek keretei között a sávon belüli árfolyam előrejelzése nem feltétlenül lehetséges, mert a leértékelés előtti időszakban a sávon belüli árfolyam alakulása kaotikus lehet. / === / Following the development of the first exchange rate target zone model at the end of the eighties dozens of papers analyzed theoretical and empirical topics of currency bands. This paper reviews different empirical methods to analyze the credibility of the band and lays special emphasis on the most widely used method, the so-called drift-adjustment method. Papers applying that method claim that while forecasting a freely floating currency is hopeless, predicting an exchange rate within the future band is successful. This paper shows that the results achieved by applications to EMS and Nordic currencies are not specific to data of target zone currencies. For example, application to US dollar and even to most unit root processes leads qualitatively to the same. This paper explores the solutions of this puzzle and shows a model of target zones in which the exchange rate within the band is not necessarily predictable since the process might follow chaotic dynamics before devaluation.

Essays of strategic alliance portfolio configuration—Its performance properties, strategic antecedents and consequential effects on multinational firms' continuing foreign expansion

This dissertation focused on an increasingly prevalent phenomenon in today's global business environment—strategic alliance portfolio. Building on resource-based view, resource dependency theory and real options theory, this dissertation adopted a multi-dimensional perspective to examine the performance implications, strategic antecedents of alliance portfolio configuration, and its strategic effects on firms' decision-making on their continuing foreign expansion. The dissertation consisted of three interrelated essays, each of which dealt with a specific research question. In the first essay I applied a two-dimensional construct that embraces both alliance relations' and alliance partners' attributes to illustrate alliance portfolio configuration. Based on this framework, a longitudinal study was conducted attempting to explore the performance properties of alliance portfolio configuration. The results revealed that alliance diversity and partner diversity have different relative contributions to firms' economic performance. The relationship between alliance portfolio configuration and firm performance was shaped by degree of multinationality in a curvilinear pattern. The second essay attempted to identify the firm level driving forces of alliance portfolio configuration and how these forces interacting with firms' internationalization influence firms' strategic choices on alliance portfolio configuration. The empirical results indicated that past alliance experience, slack resource and firms' brand images are three critical determinants shaping alliance portfolios, but those shaping relationships are conditioned by firms' multinationality. The third essay primarily employed real options theory to build a conceptual framework, revealing how country-, alliance portfolio-, firm-, and industry level factors and their interactions influence firms' strategic decision-making on post-entry continuing expansion in foreign markets. The two empirical studies were resided in global hospitality and travel industries and use panel data to test the relevant theoretical models. Overall, the dissertation advanced and enriched the theoretical domain of alliance portfolio. It particularly shed valuable insights on three fundamental questions in the domain of alliance portfolio research, namely "if and how alliance portfolios contribute to firms' economic performance"; "what determines the appearance of alliance portfolios”; and "how alliance portfolios affect firms' strategic decision-making". This dissertation also extended the international business and strategic management research on service multinationals' foreign expansion and performance.

Does Final Energy Demand in Portugal Exhibit Long Memory? A Fractional Integration Analysis

In this paper, we measure the degree of fractional integration in final energy demand in Portugal using an ARFIMA model with and without adjustments for seasonality. We consider aggregate energy demand as well as final demand for petroleum, electricity, coal, and natural gas. Our findings suggest the presence of long memory in all of the components of energy demand. All fractional-difference parameters are positive and lower than 0.5 indicating that the series are stationary, although with mean reversion patterns slower than in the typical short-run processes. These results have important implications for the design of energy policies. As a result of the long-memory in final energy demand, the effects of temporary policy shocks will tend to disappear slowly. This means that even transitory shocks have long lasting effects. Given the temporary nature of these effects, however, permanent effects on final energy demand require permanent policies. This is unlike what would be suggested by the more standard, but much more limited, unit root approach, which would incorrectly indicate that even transitory policies would have permanent effects

Characterization of an international tetraploid wheat germplasm including landraces and primitive wheat towards improved resilience to abiotic and biotic stresses and quality

This thesis aimed to characterise two large tetraploid germplasm collections. The Global Durum Panel, involving modern cultivars and landrances and the Tetraploid Global Collection which comprises all the tetraploid wheat subgroups. Two distinct parallel studies were carried out. The first is focused on the characterisation of both collection for yield and quality related traits. The panel were phenotyped for two consecutive years each. In this phase the following traits were collected: the number of fertile spikelets per spike, the number of fertile florets of central spikelet for the spike-related traits. The following grain related traits were also phenotyped: the thousand kernel weight, the average grain area, average grain length, average grain width, grain brightness, grain redness, grain yellowness. GWAS analysis were performed for each collected trait and major QTLs were subjected to candidate gene analysis. Major QTLs emerging from GWA study were located on chromosome 2A with a strong bibliographic evidence for grain number-related traits such as the fertile spikelet number, the number of fertile florets per central spikelet. On the other hand two evident peaks were detected on chromosomes 6A and 7B for grain size and weight related traits. The second work was focused on the characterisation of the Global Durum Panel for root system architecture components, namely the root growth angle. GWAS analysis was perfomed and three major QTLs were detected on chromosome 2A, 6A and 7A. These three QTLs all have a bibliographic evidence.

A split-pot experiment with sorghum to test a root water uptake partitioning model

Correct modeling of root water uptake partitioning over depth is an important issue in hydrological and crop growth models. Recently a physically based model to describe root water uptake was developed at single root scale and upscaled to the root system scale considering a homogeneous distribution of roots per soil layer. Root water uptake partitioning is calculated over soil layers or compartments as a function of respective soil hydraulic conditions, specifically the soil matric flux potential, root characteristics and a root system efficiency factor to compensate for within-layer root system heterogeneities. The performance of this model was tested in an experiment performed in two-compartment split-pot lysimeters with sorghum plants. The compartments were submitted to different irrigation cycles resulting in contrasting water contents over time. The root system efficiency factor was determined to be about 0.05. Release of water from roots to soil was predicted and observed on several occasions during the experiment; however, model predictions suggested root water release to occur more often and at a higher rate than observed. This may be due to not considering internal root system resistances, thus overestimating the ease with which roots can act as conductors of water. Excluding these erroneous predictions from the dataset, statistical indices show model performance to be of good quality.

Extensive multiple test centre evaluation of the VecTest malaria antigen panel assay

To determine which species and populations of Anopheles transmit malaria in any given situation, immunological assays for malaria sporozoite antigen can replace traditional microscopical examination of freshly dissected Anopheles. We developed a wicking assay for use with mosquitoes that identifies the presence or absence of specific peptide epitopes of circumsporozoite (CS) protein of Plasmodium falciparum and two strains of Plasmodium vivax (variants 210 and 247). The resulting assay (VecTest(TM) Malaria) is a rapid, one-step procedure using a 'dipstick' test strip capable of detecting and distinguishing between P. falciparum and P. vivax infections in mosquitoes. The objective of the present study was to test the efficacy, sensitivity, stability and field-user acceptability of this wicking dipstick assay. In collaboration with 16 test centres world-wide, we evaluated more than 40 000 units of this assay, comparing it to the standard CS ELISA. The 'VecTest(TM) Malaria' was found to show 92% sensitivity and 98.1% specificity, with 97.8% accuracy overall. In accelerated storage tests, the dipsticks remained stable for >15 weeks in dry conditions up to 45degreesC and in humid conditions up to 37degreesC. Evidently, this quick and easy dipstick test performs at an acceptable level of reliability and offers practical advantages for field workers needing to make rapid surveys of malaria vectors.

Design Guide for Precast UHPC Waffle Deck Panel System, including Connections, June 2013

Abstract: As a part of an innovation project funded by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) Highways for LIFE program, a full-depth precast, ultra-high-performance concrete (UHPC) waffle deck panel and appropriate connections suitable for field implementation of waffle decks were developed. Following a successful full-scale validation test on a unit consisting of two panels with various types of connections under laboratory conditions, the waffle deck was installed successfully on a replacement bridge in Wapello County, Iowa. The subsequent load testing confirmed the desirable performance of the UHPC waffle deck bridge. Using the lessons from the completed project and outcomes from a series of simple and detailed finite element analyses of waffle decks, this report was developed to serve as a guide for broadening the design and installation of the UHPC waffle deck panel in new and existing bridges. Following an introduction to UHPC and waffle deck panels and a summary of completed work, this document presents information on waffle deck design, design of connections, redecking using waffle deck panels, and guidance on precast fabrication, construction, and installation of UHPC waffle deck panels.

Sustainability of EU fiscal policies. A panel test

The fiscal policy rule implicit in the Stability and Growth Pact, has been rationalised as a way to ensure that national fiscal policies remain sustainable within the EU, thereby endorsing the independence of the ECB. We empirically examine the sustainability of European fiscal policies over the period 1970-2001. The intertemporal government budget constraint provides a test based on the cointegration relation between government revenues, expenditures and interest payments. Sustainability is analysed at both the national level and for a European panel. Results show that European fiscal policy has been sustainable overall, yet national experiences differ considerably.

Advances in sequential data assimilation and numerical weather forecasting: an Ensemble Transform Kalman-Bucy Filter, a study on clustering in deterministic Ensemble Square Root Filters, and a test of a new time stepping scheme in an atmospheric model

This dissertation deals with aspects of sequential data assimilation (in particular ensemble Kalman filtering) and numerical weather forecasting. In the first part, the recently formulated Ensemble Kalman-Bucy (EnKBF) filter is revisited. It is shown that the previously used numerical integration scheme fails when the magnitude of the background error covariance grows beyond that of the observational error covariance in the forecast window. Therefore, we present a suitable integration scheme that handles the stiffening of the differential equations involved and doesn’t represent further computational expense. Moreover, a transform-based alternative to the EnKBF is developed: under this scheme, the operations are performed in the ensemble space instead of in the state space. Advantages of this formulation are explained. For the first time, the EnKBF is implemented in an atmospheric model. The second part of this work deals with ensemble clustering, a phenomenon that arises when performing data assimilation using of deterministic ensemble square root filters in highly nonlinear forecast models. Namely, an M-member ensemble detaches into an outlier and a cluster of M-1 members. Previous works may suggest that this issue represents a failure of EnSRFs; this work dispels that notion. It is shown that ensemble clustering can be reverted also due to nonlinear processes, in particular the alternation between nonlinear expansion and compression of the ensemble for different regions of the attractor. Some EnSRFs that use random rotations have been developed to overcome this issue; these formulations are analyzed and their advantages and disadvantages with respect to common EnSRFs are discussed. The third and last part contains the implementation of the Robert-Asselin-Williams (RAW) filter in an atmospheric model. The RAW filter is an improvement to the widely popular Robert-Asselin filter that successfully suppresses spurious computational waves while avoiding any distortion in the mean value of the function. Using statistical significance tests both at the local and field level, it is shown that the climatology of the SPEEDY model is not modified by the changed time stepping scheme; hence, no retuning of the parameterizations is required. It is found the accuracy of the medium-term forecasts is increased by using the RAW filter.

Apical negative pressure irrigation versus conventional irrigation plus triantibiotic intracanal dressing on root canal disinfection in dog teeth

Objective. The aim of this study was to compare in vivo the efficacy of 2 root canal disinfection techniques (apical negative pressure irrigation versus apical positive pressure irrigation plus triantibiotic intracanal dressing) in immature dog teeth with apical periodontitis. Study design. Two groups of root canals with pulp necrosis and apical periodontitis were evaluated according to the disinfection technique: group 1: apical negative pressure irrigation (EndoVac system); and group 2: apical positive pressure irrigation (conventional irrigation) plus triantibiotic intracanal dressing. The first sample (S1) was collected after lesions were radiographically visible, and the second sample (S2) was collected after apical negative pressure irrigation (group 1) or conventional irrigation/triantibiotic dressing (group 2). All samples were seeded in a culture medium for anaerobic bacteria. Colony-forming unit counts were analyzed statistically by the Mann-Whitney test (alpha = .05). Results. Microorganisms were present in 100% of canals of both groups in S1. In S2, microorganisms were absent in 88.6% of group 1`s canals and 78.28% of group 2`s canals. There was no significant difference between the groups in either S1 (P = .0963) or S2 (P = .0566). There was significant (P < .05) bacterial reduction from S1 to S2 in both groups. Conclusion. In immature teeth with apical periodontitis, use of the EndoVac system can be considered to be a promising disinfection protocol, because it provided similar bacterial reduction to that of apical positive pressure irrigation (conventional irrigation) plus intracanal dressing with the triantibiotic paste, and the use of intracanal antibiotics might not be necessary. (Oral Surg Oral Med Oral Pathol Oral Radiol Endod 2010;109:e42-e46)