The Greek debt trap: an escape plan. Bruegel Policy Contribution 2012/19, 7 November 2012

Without corrective measures, Greek public debt will exceed 190 percent of GDP, instead of peaking at the anyway too-high target ratio of 167 percent of GDP of the March 2012 financial assistance programme. The rise is largely due to a negative feedback loop between high public debt and the collapse in GDP, and endangers Greek membership of the euro area. But a Greek exit would have devastating impacts both inside and outside Greece. A small reduction in the interest rate on bilateral loans, the exchange of European Central Bank holdings, buy-back of privately-held debt, and frontloading of some privatisation receipts are unlikely to be sufficient. A credible resolution should involve the reduction of the official lending rate to zero until 2020, an extension of the maturity of all official lending, and indexing the notional amount of all official loans to Greek GDP. Thereby, the debt ratio would fall below 100 percent of GDP by 2020, and if the economy deteriorates further, there will not be a need for new arrangements. But if growth is better than expected, official creditors will also benefit. In exchange for such help, the fiscal sovereignty of Greece should be curtailed further. An extended privatisation plan and future budget surpluses may be used to pay back the debt relief. The Greek fiscal tragedy highlights the need for a formal debt restructuring mechanism

Investigating Targets of Avian Habitat Management to Eliminate an Ecological Trap

Ecological traps are attractive population sinks created when anthropogenic habitat alteration inadvertently creates a mismatch between the attractiveness of a habitat based upon its settlement cues, and its current value for survival or reproduction. Traps represent a new threat to the conservation of native species, yet little attention has been given to developing practical approaches to eliminating them. In the northern Rocky Mountains of Montana, Olive-sided Flycatchers (Contopus cooperi) prefer to settle in patches of selectively harvested forest versus burned forest despite the lower reproductive success and higher nest predation risk associated with the former habitat. I investigated characteristics of preferred perch sites for this species and how these preferences varied between habitats and sexes. I then built on previous research to develop a range of management prescriptions for reducing the attractiveness of selectively harvested forest, thereby disarming the ecological trap. Female flycatchers preferred to forage from shorter perch trees than males, and females’ perches were shorter than other available perch trees. Both sexes preferred standing dead perch trees (snags) and these preferences were most obvious in harvested forest where snags are rarer. Because previous research shows that snag density is linked to habitat preference and spruce/fir trees are preferred nest substrate, my results suggest these two habitat components are focal habitat selection cues. I suggest alternative and complementary strategies for eliminating the ecological trap for Olive-sided Flycatchers including: (1) reduced retention and creation of snags, (2) avoiding selective harvest in spruce, fir, and larch stands, (3) avoiding retention of these tree species, and (4) selecting only even-aged canopy height trees for retention so as to reduce perch availability for female flycatchers. Because these strategies also have potential to negatively impact habitat suitability for other forest species or even create new ecological traps, we urge caution in the application of our management recommendations.

What limits insect fecundity? Body size- and temperature-dependent egg maturation and oviposition in a butterfly

1. Large female insects usually have high potential fecundity. Therefore selection should favour an increase in body size given that these females get opportunities to realize their potential advantage by maturing and laying more eggs. However, ectotherm physiology is strongly temperature-dependent, and activities are carried out sufficiently only within certain temperature ranges. Thus it remains unclear if the fecundity advantage of a large size is fully realized in natural environments, where thermal conditions are limiting. 2. Insect fecundity might be limited by temperature at two levels; first eggs need to mature, and then the female needs time for strategic ovipositing of the egg. Since a female cannot foresee the number of oviposition opportunities that she will encounter on a given day, the optimal rate of egg maturation will be governed by trade-offs associated with egg- and time-limited oviposition. As females of different sizes will have different amounts of body reserves, size-dependent allocation trade-offs between the mother’s condition and her egg production might be expected. 3. In the temperate butterfly Pararge aegeria , the time and temperature dependence of oviposition and egg maturation, and the interrelatedness of these two processes were investigated in a series of laboratory experiments, allowing a decoupling of the time budgets for the respective processes. 4. The results show that realized fecundity of this species can be limited by both the temperature dependence of egg maturation and oviposition under certain thermal regimes. Furthermore, rates of oviposition and egg maturation seemed to have regulatory effects upon each other. Early reproductive output was correlated with short life span, indicating a cost of reproduction. Finally, large females matured more eggs than small females when deprived of oviposition opportunities. Thus, the optimal allocation of resources to egg production seems dependent on female size. 5. This study highlights the complexity of processes underlying rates of egg maturation and oviposition in ectotherms under natural conditions. We further discuss the importance of temperature variation for egg- vs. time-limited fecundity and the consequences for the evolution of female body size in insects.

Biased oviposition and biased survival together help resolve a fig-wasp conflict

We report evidence that helps resolve two competing explanations for stability in the mutualism between Ficus racemosa fig trees and the Ceratosolen fusciceps wasps that pollinate them. The wasps lay eggs in the tree's ovules, with each wasp larva developing at the expense of a fig seed. Upon maturity, the female wasps collect pollen and disperse to a new tree, continuing the cycle. Fig fitness is increased by producing both seeds and female wasps, whereas short-term wasp fitness increases only with more wasps, thereby resulting in a conflict of interests. We show experimentally that wasps exploit the inner layers of ovules first (the biased oviposition explanation), which is consistent with optimal-foraging theory. As oviposition increases, seeds in the middle layer are replaced on a one-to-one basis by pollinator offspring, which is also consistent with biased oviposition. Finally, in the outer layer of ovules, seeds disappear but are only partially replaced by pollinator offspring, which suggests high wasp mortality (the biased survival or ‘unbeatable seeds’ explanation). Our results therefore suggest that both biased oviposition and biased survival ensure seed production, thereby stabilizing the mutualism. We further argue that biased oviposition can maintain biased survival by selecting against wasp traits to overcome fig defenses. Finally, we report evidence suggesting that F. racemosa balances seed and wasp production at the level of the tree. Because figs are probably selected to allocate equally to male and female function, a 1:1 seed:wasp ratio suggests that fig trees are in control of the mutualism.

Oviposition site selection by the bromeliad-dweller harvestman Bourguyia hamata (Arachnida : Opiliones)

Bourguyia hamata females oviposit almost exclusively inside the rosette formed by the curled leaves of the epiphytic bromeliad Aechmea nudicaulis. We investigated whether the architecture of the individual bromeliads influences oviposition site selection by this harvestman species. We collected data on the presence of clutches inside bromeliads, rosette length, rosette slope in relation to tree trunks, and the amount of debris inside the rosette. Additionally, we measured the water volume inside the rosettes as well as the variation in the humidity inside and outside bromeliads with long and short rosettes. Longer rosettes were preferred as oviposition site possibly because they accumulate more water and maintain lower internal humidity variation than the external environment. Although the slope of the rosettes did not influence the occurrence of oviposition, the probability of debris accumulation inside the rosettes increased with their slope, and the frequency of clutches was greater in bromeliads with small amounts of debris. A field experiment showed that bromeliads with water inside the rosette were more frequently used as oviposition sites than bromeliads without water. In conclusion, females oviposit predominantly in bromeliads that accumulate more water and have small amounts of debris inside the rosettes, probably because these characteristics promote a more adequate microhabitat for egg development.

Temperature Dependence of Rb(2) Molecule Formation Rate Constant in a Magneto-Optical Trap

In this paper, we report the measurement of Rb(2) molecule formation rate constant due to a two body process in a magneto-optical trap as a function of the sample temperature. The ground state molecules are detected by two-photon ionization, through the intermediate a(3)Sigma(+)(u) -> 2(3)Pi(g) molecular band. Our results show that the Rb(2) molecules formed in the MOT could be due to a wave shape resonance, which enhances the molecule formation rate. This effect may be used to enhance the molecule production; and therefore it maybe important to future experiments involving production and trapping of cold ground state molecules.

Efficiency in the loading of a sodium magneto-optical trap from alkali metal dispensers

We study the loading of sodium atoms into a magneto-optical trap from current-controlled sodium metal dispensers. Contrary to what was previously reported [V. Wippel, C. Binder, W. Huber, L Windholz, M. Allegrini, F. Fuso, E. Arimondo, Eur. Phys. J. D 17 (2001) 2851 we demonstrate a significantly higher number of trapped atoms that make Na dispensers a feasible source of atoms for cold-atom studies. The inherent rise in pressure that naturally arises from metal dispensers as they are heated to release atoms is partially controlled by placing the metal dispensers near the pumping port where an ion pump is connected. We also study the effects of placing the sodium dispensers at different distances from the main vacuum chamber where the atoms are trapped and the effectiveness of using a Zeeman slower to cool the atoms as they emerge from the dispensers. We observe trapping of up to 1.9 x 10(8) atoms, which is significantly higher by almost three orders of magnitude than previously reported experiments. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Central bank balance sheet concerns and credible optimal escape from the Liquidity trap

I show that when a central bank is financially independent from the treasury and has balance sheet concerns, an increase in the size or a change in the composition of the central bank's balance sheet (quantitative easing) can serve as a commitment device in a liquidity trap scenario. In particular, when the short-term interest rate is up against the zero lower bound, an open market operation by the central bank that involves purchases of long-term bonds can help mitigate the deation and a large negative output gap under a discretionary equilibrium. This is because such an open market operation provides an incentive to the central bank to keep interest rates low in future in order to avoid losses in its balance sheet.

The risk of falling into the acceleration trap during a privatization process: a case study of a European telecommunication company

A privatização de uma empresa é uma mudança empresarial disruptiva que geralmente coincide com o fim de uma posição de monopólio e da subsequente entrada num ambiente competitivo. Os desafios que a privatização coloca são tão árduos que eles levam muitas vezes a liderança (leadership) para executar planos ambiciosos de mudança empresarial. No entanto, a literatura mostra que muitos deles falharam. Na verdade, esses planos preveem mudanças bruscas e importantes que tendem a empurrar a empresa privatizada na armadilha de aceleração (acceleration trap). Um tipo de “burnout organizacional” (organizational burnout) onde a exaustão e a resignação da força de trabalho afetam drasticamente o desempenho da empresa. A tese, portanto, focalizou em estudar a ligação entre um processo de privatização e o risco de cair na armadilha de aceleração. Uma investigação preliminar sobre a literatura das mudanças empresariais permitiu a concepção de um quadro preliminar teórico que sugere a existência de dois moderadores (moderators) deste relacionamento entre um processo de privatização e a armadilha de aceleração: um “choque cultural” (cultural clash) e um “fraco clima de liderança transformacional” (weak transformational leadership). Em seguida, um estudo de caso - baseado numa empresa de telecomunicações europeia e conduzido através de uma abordagem metodológico não puramente indutivo (non-purely inductive approach) - confirma, mas também aprofunda a compreensão da ação desses dois moderadores. A respeito do moderador “choque cultural” (cultural clash moderator), a análise de dados do estudo de caso da empresa de telecomunicações europeia mostra a importância exercitado tanto por um “choque de identidade corporativa” (corporate identity conflict) como por um “conflito de identidade gerencial” (management identity conflict). Quanto ao moderador “fraco liderança transformacional”, a análise dos dados destaca o papel da “falta de confiança na nova gerência” (lack of trust in the new management), mas também de “sentido do trabalho” (lack of job sense), principalmente através da perda de “orgulho no trabalho” (loss of proudness). Finalmente, a análise dos dados salienta que a “não aceitação do novo sistema de incentivos” (non-acceptance of the new incentive system) afeta significativamente a relação entre a privatização e a armadilha de aceleração, contribuindo tanto para um “choque cultural” como para um “fraco clima de liderança transformacional”.

Oviposition preference hierarchy in Ceratitis capitata (Diptera, Tephritidae): influence of female age and experience

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Adult attractiveness and oviposition preference of Bemisia tabaci (Genn.) (Homoptera: Aleyrodidae) B-biotype in cotton genotypes

Considerada importante praga do algodoeiro, a mosca-branca Bemisia tabaci biótipo B pode através de sua alimentação, diminuir o vigor das plantas, trasmitir vírus e prejudicar a qualidade da fibra. Visando avaliar a resistência de genótipos de algodoeiro, Gossypium hirsutum (L.), à mosca-branca Bemisia tabaci biótipo B, realizaram-se testes de atratividade e não-preferência para oviposição, com e sem chance de escolha, em telado, a temperatura ambiente. Verificou-se baixa atratividade das plantas dos genótipos Fabrika, CNPA Ita 90, Makina, Coodetec 407 e IAC 01-639 CPA 02-24 a adultos dessa mosca-branca, o que pode representar um componente de resistência destes materiais genéticos ao inseto. Os genótipos BRS Aroeira, Coodetec 406, Fabrika e Coodetec 401 apresentaram resistência do tipo não-preferência para oviposição, nos testes com e sem chance de escolha. Os números de tricomas e de glândulas de gossipol por cm² não foram adequados para se avaliar a não-preferência para oviposição de adultos da mosca-branca em genótipos de algodoeiro.

Nonpreference of whitefly for oviposition in tomato genotypes

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)