875 resultados para out-of-sample forecast


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We have devised a program that allows computation of the power of F-test, and hence determination of appropriate sample and subsample sizes, in the context of the one-way hierarchical analysis of variance with fixed effects. The power at a fixed alternative is an increasing function of the sample size and of the subsample size. The program makes it easy to obtain the power of F-test for a range of values of sample and subsample sizes, and therefore the appropriate sizes based on a desired power. The program can be used for the 'ordinary' case of the one-way analysis of variance, as well as for hierarchical analysis of variance with two stages of sampling. Examples are given of the practical use of the program.

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The aim of this study was to evaluate the N losses due to volatilization at different rates of common urea, polymer coated urea and urease inhibitor-treated urea in the out-of-season corn, using semi-open static collectors. The treatments consisted of N levels on side-dressing fertilization with urea in different treatments: (a) control (without N), (b) urea 40 kg ha-1 N, (c) urea 80 kg ha-1 N, (d) polymer coated urea 40 kg ha-1 N, (e) polymer coated urea 80 kg ha-1 N and (f) urea with the urease inhibitor (UI) N 80 kg ha-1 N. The results showed that the treatments with polymer coated urea and with urease inhibitor-treated urea reduced the volatilization of N around 50 % compared to common urea, either in the first and the second N side-dressing fertilizations. Thus, they demonstrate that the polymer coat and the urease inhibitors were effective in reducing the volatilization of urea N applied in coverage, which resulted in higher productivity. There was also increasing urease activity in the treatments with application of common urea.

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In birds, sibling competition encompasses several activities, one of which is jostling for position, that is, competing for the location in the nest where parents predictably deliver food items. We hypothesized that nestlings that compete by jostling for position may fall out of the nest either accidentally or because siblings push each other to reduce brood size. This hypothesis predicts that in a competitive environment needy nestlings trade-off the benefit of being fed against the cost of falling out of the nest. As a first attempt to evaluate this hypothesis, we experimentally manipulated the number of young per brood in the colonial Alpine swift, Apus melba. Nestlings fell out of their colony more frequently when reared in enlarged than in reduced broods. Because brood size manipulation affects not only the number of young per nest but also their body condition, we analysed an extended data set to disentangle these two factors. This analysis showed that, independently of brood size, nestlings in poor condition and those reared in broods where sibling differed markedly in weight were more likely to disappear from the colony. Nestling disappearance also occurred predominantly in nests close to the colony entrances. Although nestling swifts can wander in the colony and become adopted in neighbouring nests, we found no evidence that wandering per se increased the risk of falling out of the colony. Our study therefore highlights a novel cost of scramble competition.

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Nickel, although essential to plants, may be toxic to plants and animals. It is mainly assimilated by food ingestion. However, information about the average levels of elements (including Ni) in edible vegetables from different regions is still scarce in Brazil. The objectives of this study were to: (a) evaluate and optimize a method for preparation of vegetable tissue samples for Ni determination; (b) optimize the analytical procedures for determination by Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrometry (FAAS) and by Electrothermal Atomic Absorption (ETAAS) in vegetable samples and (c) determine the Ni concentration in vegetables consumed in the cities of Lorena and Taubaté in the Vale do Paraíba, State of São Paulo, Brazil. By means of the analytical technique for determination by ETAAS or FAAS, the results were validated by the test of analyte addition and recovery. The most viable method tested for quantification of this element was HClO4-HNO3 wet digestion. All samples but carrot tissue collected in Lorena contained Ni levels above the permitted by the Brazilian Ministry of Health. The most disturbing results, requiring more detailed studies, were the Ni concentrations measured in carrot samples from Taubaté, where levels were five times higher than permitted by Brazilian regulations.

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A pacemaker, regularly emitting chemical waves, is created out of noise when an excitable photosensitive Belousov-Zhabotinsky medium, strictly unable to autonomously initiate autowaves, is forced with a spatiotemporal patterned random illumination. These experimental observations are also reproduced numerically by using a set of reaction-diffusion equations for an activator-inhibitor model, and further analytically interpreted in terms of genuine coupling effects arising from parametric fluctuations. Within the same framework we also address situations of noise-sustained propagation in subexcitable media.

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Experimental observations of self-organized behavior arising out of noise are also described, and details on the numerical algorithms needed in the computer simulation of these problems are given.

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A pacemaker, regularly emitting chemical waves, is created out of noise when an excitable photosensitive Belousov-Zhabotinsky medium, strictly unable to autonomously initiate autowaves, is forced with a spatiotemporal patterned random illumination. These experimental observations are also reproduced numerically by using a set of reaction-diffusion equations for an activator-inhibitor model, and further analytically interpreted in terms of genuine coupling effects arising from parametric fluctuations. Within the same framework we also address situations of noise-sustained propagation in subexcitable media.

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Experimental observations of self-organized behavior arising out of noise are also described, and details on the numerical algorithms needed in the computer simulation of these problems are given.