934 resultados para out-of-sample forecast


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Free software is viewed as a revolutionary and subversive practice, and in particular has dealt a strong blow to the traditional conception of intellectual property law (although in its current form could be considered a 'hack' of IP rights). However, other (capitalist) areas of law have been swift to embrace free software, or at least incorporate it into its own tenets. One area in particular is that of competition (antitrust) law, which itself has long been in theoretical conflict with intellectual property, due to the restriction on competition inherent in the grant of ‘monopoly’ rights by copyrights, patents and trademarks. This contribution will examine how competition law has approached free software by examining instances in which courts have had to deal with such initiatives, for instance in the Oracle Sun Systems merger, and the implications that these decisions have on free software initiatives. The presence or absence of corporate involvement in initiatives will be an important factor in this investigation, with it being posited that true instances of ‘commons-based peer production’ can still subvert the capitalist system, including perplexing its laws beyond intellectual property.

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Social media platforms risk polarising public opinions by employing proprietary algorithms that produce filter bubbles and echo chambers. As a result, the ability of citizens and communities to engage in robust debate in the public sphere is diminished. In response, this paper highlights the capacity of urban interfaces, such as pervasive displays, to counteract this trend by exposing citizens to the socio-cultural diversity of the city. Engagement with different ideas, networks and communities is crucial to both innovation and the functioning of democracy. We discuss examples of urban interfaces designed to play a key role in fostering this engagement. Based on an analysis of works empirically-grounded in field observations and design research, we call for a theoretical framework that positions pervasive displays and other urban interfaces as civic media. We argue that when designed for more than wayfinding, advertisement or television broadcasts, urban screens as civic media can rectify some of the pitfalls of social media by allowing the polarised user to break out of their filter bubble and embrace the cultural diversity and richness of the city.

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This thesis studies binary time series models and their applications in empirical macroeconomics and finance. In addition to previously suggested models, new dynamic extensions are proposed to the static probit model commonly used in the previous literature. In particular, we are interested in probit models with an autoregressive model structure. In Chapter 2, the main objective is to compare the predictive performance of the static and dynamic probit models in forecasting the U.S. and German business cycle recession periods. Financial variables, such as interest rates and stock market returns, are used as predictive variables. The empirical results suggest that the recession periods are predictable and dynamic probit models, especially models with the autoregressive structure, outperform the static model. Chapter 3 proposes a Lagrange Multiplier (LM) test for the usefulness of the autoregressive structure of the probit model. The finite sample properties of the LM test are considered with simulation experiments. Results indicate that the two alternative LM test statistics have reasonable size and power in large samples. In small samples, a parametric bootstrap method is suggested to obtain approximately correct size. In Chapter 4, the predictive power of dynamic probit models in predicting the direction of stock market returns are examined. The novel idea is to use recession forecast (see Chapter 2) as a predictor of the stock return sign. The evidence suggests that the signs of the U.S. excess stock returns over the risk-free return are predictable both in and out of sample. The new "error correction" probit model yields the best forecasts and it also outperforms other predictive models, such as ARMAX models, in terms of statistical and economic goodness-of-fit measures. Chapter 5 generalizes the analysis of univariate models considered in Chapters 2 4 to the case of a bivariate model. A new bivariate autoregressive probit model is applied to predict the current state of the U.S. business cycle and growth rate cycle periods. Evidence of predictability of both cycle indicators is obtained and the bivariate model is found to outperform the univariate models in terms of predictive power.

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The objective of this paper is to investigate and model the characteristics of the prevailing volatility smiles and surfaces on the DAX- and ESX-index options markets. Continuing on the trend of Implied Volatility Functions, the Standardized Log-Moneyness model is introduced and fitted to historical data. The model replaces the constant volatility parameter of the Black & Scholes pricing model with a matrix of volatilities with respect to moneyness and maturity and is tested out-of-sample. Considering the dynamics, the results show support for the hypotheses put forward in this study, implying that the smile increases in magnitude when maturity and ATM volatility decreases and that there is a negative/positive correlation between a change in the underlying asset/time to maturity and implied ATM volatility. Further, the Standardized Log-Moneyness model indicates an improvement to pricing accuracy compared to previous Implied Volatility Function models, however indicating that the parameters of the models are to be re-estimated continuously for the models to fully capture the changing dynamics of the volatility smiles.

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The growing interest for sequencing with higher throughput in the last decade has led to the development of new sequencing applications. This thesis concentrates on optimizing DNA library preparation for Illumina Genome Analyzer II sequencer. The library preparation steps that were optimized include fragmentation, PCR purification and quantification. DNA fragmentation was performed with focused sonication in different concentrations and durations. Two column based PCR purification method, gel matrix method and magnetic bead based method were compared. Quantitative PCR and gel electrophoresis in a chip were compared for DNA quantification. The magnetic bead purification was found to be the most efficient and flexible purification method. The fragmentation protocol was changed to produce longer fragments to be compatible with longer sequencing reads. Quantitative PCR correlates better with the cluster number and should thus be considered to be the default quantification method for sequencing. As a result of this study more data have been acquired from sequencing with lower costs and troubleshooting has become easier as qualification steps have been added to the protocol. New sequencing instruments and applications will create a demand for further optimizations in future.

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Many wormlike micellar systems exhibit appreciable shear thinning due to shear-induced alignment. As the micelles get aligned introducing directionality in the system, the viscoelastic properties are no longer expected to be isotropic. An optical-tweezers-based active microrheology technique enables us to probe the out-of-equilibrium rheological properties of a wormlike micellar system simultaneously along two orthogonal directions-parallel to the applied shear, as well as perpendicular to it. While the displacements of a trapped bead in response to active drag force carry signature of conventional shear thinning, its spontaneous position fluctuations along the perpendicular direction manifest an orthogonal shear thickening, an effect hitherto unobserved. Copyright (C) EPLA, 2010

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We assume the large-scale diffuse magnetic field of the Sun to originate from the poloidal component of a dynamo operating at the base of the convection zone, whereas the sunspots are due to the toroidal component. The evolution of the poloidal component is studied to model the poleward migration of the diffuse field seen on the solar surface and the polar reversal at the time of sunspot maxima (Dikpati and Choudhuri 1994, 1995).

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We present a numerical study of a continuum plasticity field coupled to a Ginzburg-Landau model for superfluidity. The results suggest that a supersolid fraction may appear as a long-lived transient during the time evolution of the plasticity field at higher temperatures where both dislocation climb and glide are allowed. Supersolidity, however, vanishes with annealing. As the temperature is decreased, dislocation climb is arrested and any residual supersolidity due to incomplete annealing remains frozen. Our results may provide a resolution of many perplexing issues concerning a variety of experiments on bulk solid He-4.

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Several anuran species use multimodal signals to communicate in diverse social contexts. Our study describes acoustic and visual behaviours of the Small Torrent Frog (Micrixalus aff. saxicola), a diurnal frog endemic to the Western Ghats of India. During agonistic interactions males display advertisement calls, foot-flagging and tapping (foot lifting) behaviours to signal the readiness to defend perching sites in perennial streams. Results from a quantitative video analysis of male–male interactions indicate that footflagging displays were used as directional signals toward the opponent male, but were less abundant than calls. The acoustic and visual signals were not functionally linked. The call of Micrixalus aff. saxicola thereby did not act as an alert signal. Analysis of behavioural transitions revealed that kicking behaviours (physical attacks) significantly elicited kicks from interacting males. We suggest that foot-flagging displays ritualized from this frequently observed fighting technique to reduce physical attacks.

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Several anuran species use multimodal signals to communicate in diverse social contexts. Our study describes acoustic and visual behaviours of the Small Torrent Frog (Micrixalus aff. saxicola), a diurnal frog endemic to the Western Ghats of India. During agonistic interactions males display advertisement calls, foot-flagging and tapping (foot lifting) behaviours to signal the readiness to defend perching sites in perennial streams. Results from a quantitative video analysis of male-male interactions indicate that foot-flagging displays were used as directional signals toward the opponent male, but were less abundant than calls. The acoustic and visual signals were not functionally linked. The call of Micrixalus aff. saxicola thereby did not act as an alert signal. Analysis of behavioural transitions revealed that kicking behaviours (physical attacks) significantly elicited kicks from interacting males. We suggest that foot-flagging displays ritualized from this frequently observed fighting technique to reduce physical attacks.

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The paper proposes a non-destructive method for simultaneous measurement of in-plane and out-of-plane displacements and strains undergone by a deformed specimen from a single moire fringe pattern obtained on the specimen in a dual beam digital holographic interferometry setup. The moire fringe pattern encodes multiple interference phases which carry the information on multidimensional deformation. The interference field is segmented in each column and is modeled as multicomponent quadratic/cubic frequency-modulated signal in each segment. Subsequently, the product form of modified cubic phase function is used for accurate estimation of phase parameters. The estimated phase parameters are further utilized for direct estimation of the unwrapped interference phases and phase derivatives. The simulation and experimental results are provided to validate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

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The performance of two curved beam finite element models based on coupled polynomial displacement fields is investigated for out-of-plane vibration of arches. These two-noded beam models employ curvilinear strain definitions and have three degrees of freedom per node namely, out-of-plane translation (v), out-of-plane bending rotation (theta(z)) and torsion rotation (theta(s)). The coupled polynomial interpolation fields are derived independently for Timoshenko and Euler-Bernoulli beam elements using the force-moment equilibrium equations. Numerical performance of these elements for constrained and unconstrained arches is compared with the conventional curved beam models which are based on independent polynomial fields. The formulation is shown to be free from any spurious constraints in the limit of `flexureless torsion' and `torsionless flexure' and hence devoid of flexure and torsion locking. The resulting stiffness and consistent mass matrices generated from the coupled displacement models show excellent convergence of natural frequencies in locking regimes. The accuracy of the shear flexibility added to the elements is also demonstrated. The coupled polynomial models are shown to perform consistently over a wide range of flexure-to-shear (EI/GA) and flexure-to-torsion (EI/GJ) stiffness ratios and are inherently devoid of flexure, torsion and shear locking phenomena. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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Measurement of out-of-plane linear motion with high precision and bandwidth is indispensable for development of precision motion stages and for dynamic characterization of mechanical structures. This paper presents an optical beam deflection (OBD) based system for measurement of out-of-plane linear motion for fully reflective samples. The system also achieves nearly zero cross-sensitivity to angular motion, and a large working distance. The sensitivities to linear and angular motion are analytically obtained and employed to optimize the system design. The optimal shot-noise limited resolution is shown to be less than one angstrom over a bandwidth in excess of 1 kHz. Subsequently, the system is experimentally realized and the sensitivities to out-of-plane motions are calibrated using a novel strategy. The linear sensitivity is found to be in agreement with theory. The angular sensitivity is shown to be over 7.5-times smaller than that of conventional OBD. Finally, the measurement system is employed to measure the transient response of a piezo-positioner, and, with the aid of an open-loop controller, reduce the settling time by about 90%. It is also employed to operate the positioner in closed-loop and demonstrate significant minimization of hysteresis and positioning error.