'It ain't over till it's over' : Yogi Berra bias on prediction markets

The recent expansion of prediction markets provides a great opportunity to test the market efficiency hypothesis and the calibration of trader judgements. Using a large database of observed prices, this article studies the calibration of prediction markets prices on sporting events using both nonparametric and parametric methods. While only minor bias can be observed during most of the lifetime of the contracts, the calibration of prices deteriorates very significantly in the last moments of the contracts’ lives. Traders tend to overestimate the probability of the losing team to reverse the situation in the last minutes of the game.

Residential property investment : assessing home ownership long term viability

Home purchase and ownership is seen by the majority of Australians as the basis for a sound investment strategy and to seciure their long term retirement goals. Although home ownership rates in Australia are in excess of 65% of the population, there have been doubts raised as to the effectiveness of purchasing a house as the main source of retirement income. The main issue with this approach is that the house has to be sold to gain access to these funds or the owners have to take out a reverse mortgage to access the capital tied up in their home, which can be more expensive than selling. This paper will carryout a detailed analysis of a number of investment options to determine the effectiveness of home purchase as a long term investment vehicle. This study has found that the long term investment in equities or managed superannuation funds can provide a greater retirement income than the purchase of a residential property for owner occupation

Re-made in Asia : transformation across Asian markets and popular culture

The thesis is an examination of how Japanese popular culture products are remade (rimeiku). Adaptation of manga, anime and television drama, from one format to another, frequently occurs within Japan. The rights to these stories and texts are traded in South Korea and Taiwan. The ‘spin-off’ products form part of the Japanese content industry. When products are distributed and remade across geographical boundaries, they have a multi-dimensional aspect and potentially contribute to an evolving cultural re-engagement between Japan and East Asia. The case studies are the television dramas Akai Giwaku and Winter Sonata and two manga, Hana yori Dango and Janguru Taitei. Except for the television drama Winter Sonata these texts originated in Japan. Each study shows how remaking occurs across geographical borders. The study argues that Japan has been slow to recognise the value of its popular culture through regional and international media trade. Japan is now taking steps to remedy this strategic shortfall to enable the long-term viability of the Japanese content industry. The study includes an examination of how remaking raises legal issues in the appropriation of media content. Unauthorised copying and piracy contributes to loss of financial value. To place the three Japanese cultural products into a historical context, the thesis includes an overview of Japanese copying culture from its early origins through to the present day. The thesis also discusses the Meiji restoration and the post-World War II restructuring that resulted in Japan becoming a regional media powerhouse. The localisation of Japanese media content in South Korea and Taiwan also brings with it significant cultural influences, which may be regarded as contributing to a better understanding of East Asian society in line with the idea of regional ‘harmony’. The study argues that the commercial success of Japanese products beyond Japan is governed by perceptions of the quality of the story and by the cultural frames of the target audience. The thesis draws on audience research to illustrate the loss or reinforcement of national identity as a consequence of cross-cultural trade. The thesis also examines the contribution to Japanese ‘soft power’ (Nye, 2004, p. x). The study concludes with recommendations for the sustainability of the Japanese media industry.

Value added products from modified kaolins : new chemical routes to new markets

Chemical treatments of kaolins to produce nanocrystalline or "X-ray amorphous", stable aluminosilicates with variable - but reproducible - types of micro- and meso-porosity have been developed. These materials show cation exchange capacities and surface area values significantly higher (ranging from 10x to 100x) than kaolin and show good acid resistance to pH~3.0. The combination of these properties offers strong potential for many new applications of kaolin-derived materials in large worldwide markets such as environmental remediation and catalysis. Kaolin amorphous derivative (KAD) is well-suited to removal of many toxic metals down to ppb range from acid mine drainage. Engineering development trials of the KAD manufacturing process and the utilisation of KAD in polluted waters such as acid mine drainage indicates that scale-up from bench-scale is not a barrier to market entry.

Opportunities for forest finance under the International climate change regime

The international climate change regime has the potential to increase revenue available for forest restoration projects in Commonwealth nations. There are three mechanisms which could be used to fund forest projects aimed at forest conservation, forest restoration and sustainable forest management. The first forest funding opportunity arises under the clean development mechanism, a flexibility mechanism of the Kyoto Protocol. The clean development mechanism allows Annex I parties (industrialised nations) to invest in emission reduction activities in non-Annex 1 (developing countries) and the establishment of forest sinks is an eligible clean development mechanism activity. Secondly, parties to the Kyoto Protocol are able to include sustainable forest management activities in their national carbon accounting. The international rules concerning this are called the Land-Use, Land-Use Change and Forestry Guidelines. Thirdly, it is anticipated that at the upcoming Copenhagen negotiations that a Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) instrument will be created. This will provide a direct funding mechanism for those developing countries with tropical forests. Payments made under a REDD arrangement will be based upon the developing country with tropical forest cover agreeing to protect and conserve a designated forest estate. These three funding options available under the international climate change regime demonstrate that there is potential for forest finance within the regime. These opportunities are however hindered by a number of technical and policy barriers which prevent the ability of the regime to significantly increase funding for forest projects. There are two types of carbon markets, compliance carbon markets (Kyoto based) and voluntary carbon markets. Voluntary carbon markets are more flexible then compliance markets and as such offer potential to increase revenue available for sustainable forest projects.

Destination brand equity for Australia : testing a model of CBBE in short haul and long haul markets

The study of destination brand performance measurement has only emerged in earnest as a field in the tourism literature since 2007. The concept of consumer-based brand equity (CBBE) is gaining favour from services marketing researchers as an alternative to the traditional ‘net-present-value of future earnings’ method of measuring brand equity. The perceptions-based CBBE model also appears suitable for examining destination brand performance, where a financial brand equity valuation on a destination marketing organisation’s (DMO) balance sheet is largely irrelevant. This is the first study to test and compare the model in both short and long haul markets. The paper reports the results of tests of a CBBE model for Australia in a traditional short haul market (New Zealand) and an emerging long haul market (Chile). The data from both samples indicated destination brand salience, brand image, and brand value are positively related to purchase intent for Australia in these two disparate markets.

“As many options as there are, there are just not enough for me” : a qualitative analysis of contraceptive use and barriers to access among Australian women

There is currently little information available about reasons for contraceptive use or non-use among young Australian women and the reasons for choosing specific types of contraceptive methods. A comprehensive life course perspective of women's experiences in using and obtaining contraceptives is lacking, particularly relating to women's perceived or physical barriers to access. This paper presents an analysis of qualitative data gathered from free-text comments provided by women born between 1973 and 1978 as part of their participation in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. The Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health is a large cohort study involving over 40,000 women from three age groups (aged 18-23, aged 40-45 and aged 70-75) who were selected from the database of Medicare the Australian universal health insurance system in 1995. The women have been surveyed every 3 years about their health by mailed self-report surveys, and more recently online. Written comments from 690 women across five surveys from 1996 (when they were aged 18-23 years) to 2009 (aged 31-36 years) were examined. Factors relating to contraceptive use and barriers to access were identified and explored using thematic analysis. Side-effects, method satisfaction, family timing, and hormonal balance were relevant to young women using contraception. Most women who commented about a specific contraceptive method wrote about the oral contraceptive pill. While many women were positive or neutral about their method, noting its convenience or non-contraceptive benefits, many others were concerned about adverse effects, affordability, method failure, and lack of choice. Negative experiences with health services, lack of information, and cost were identified as barriers to access. As the cohort aged over time, method choice, changing patterns of use, side-effects, and negative experiences with health services remained important themes. Side-effects, convenience, and family timing play important roles in young Australian women's experiences of contraception and barriers to access. Contrary to assumptions, barriers to contraceptive access continue to be experienced by young women as they move into adulthood. Further research is needed about how to decrease barriers to contraceptive use and minimise negative experiences in order to ensure optimal contraceptive access for Australian women.

“As many options as there are, there are just not enough for me” : a qualitative analysis of contraceptive use and barriers to access among Australian women

There is currently little information available about reasons for contraceptive use or non-use among young Australian women and the reasons for choosing specific types of contraceptive methods. A comprehensive life course perspective of women's experiences in using and obtaining contraceptives is lacking, particularly relating to women's perceived or physical barriers to access. This paper presents an analysis of qualitative data gathered from free-text comments provided by women born between 1973 and 1978 as part of their participation in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. The Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health is a large cohort study involving over 40,000 women from three age groups (aged 18-23, aged 40-45 and aged 70-75) who were selected from the database of Medicare the Australian universal health insurance system in 1995. The women have been surveyed every 3 years about their health by mailed self-report surveys, and more recently online. Written comments from 690 women across five surveys from 1996 (when they were aged 18-23 years) to 2009 (aged 31-36 years) were examined. Factors relating to contraceptive use and barriers to access were identified and explored using thematic analysis. Side-effects, method satisfaction, family timing, and hormonal balance were relevant to young women using contraception. Most women who commented about a specific contraceptive method wrote about the oral contraceptive pill. While many women were positive or neutral about their method, noting its convenience or non-contraceptive benefits, many others were concerned about adverse effects, affordability, method failure, and lack of choice. Negative experiences with health services, lack of information, and cost were identified as barriers to access. As the cohort aged over time, method choice, changing patterns of use, side-effects, and negative experiences with health services remained important themes. Side-effects, convenience, and family timing play important roles in young Australian women's experiences of contraception and barriers to access. Contrary to assumptions, barriers to contraceptive access continue to be experienced by young women as they move into adulthood. Further research is needed about how to decrease barriers to contraceptive use and minimise negative experiences in order to ensure optimal contraceptive access for Australian women.

Essays on volatility and liquidity in financial markets

The price formation of financial assets is a complex process. It extends beyond the standard economic paradigm of supply and demand to the understanding of the dynamic behavior of price variability, the price impact of information, and the implications of trading behavior of market participants on prices. In this thesis, I study aggregate market and individual assets volatility, liquidity dimensions, and causes of mispricing for US equities over a recent sample period. How volatility forecasts are modeled, what determines intradaily jumps and causes changes in intradaily volatility and what drives the premium of traded equity indexes? Are they induced, for example, by the information content of lagged volatility and return parameters or by macroeconomic news, changes in liquidity and volatility? Besides satisfying our intellectual curiosity, answers to these questions are of direct importance to investors developing trading strategies, policy makers evaluating macroeconomic policies and to arbitrageurs exploiting mispricing in exchange-traded funds. Results show that the leverage effect and lagged absolute returns improve forecasts of continuous components of daily realized volatility as well as jumps. Implied volatility does not subsume the information content of lagged returns in forecasting realized volatility and its components. The reported results are linked to the heterogeneous market hypothesis and demonstrate the validity of extending the hypothesis to returns. Depth shocks, signed order flow, the number of trades, and resiliency are the most important determinants of intradaily volatility. In contrast, spread shock and resiliency are predictive of signed intradaily jumps. There are fewer macroeconomic news announcement surprises that cause extreme price movements or jumps than those that elevate intradaily volatility. Finally, the premium of exchange-traded funds is significantly associated with momentum in net asset value and a number of liquidity parameters including the spread, traded volume, and illiquidity. The mispricing of industry exchange traded funds suggest that limits to arbitrage are driven by potential illiquidity.

China’s new creative strategy : the utilization of cultural soft power and new markets

This book examines different aspects of Asian popular culture, including films, TV, music, comedy, folklore, cultural icons, the Internet and theme parks. It raises important questions such as – What are the implications of popularity of Asian popular culture for globalization? Do regional forces impede the globalizing of cultures? Or does the Asian popular culture flow act as a catalyst or conveying channel for cultural globalization? Does the globalization of culture pose a threat to local culture? It addresses two seemingly contradictory and yet parallel processes in the circulation of Asian popular culture: the interconnectedness between Asian popular culture and western culture in an era of cultural globalization that turns subjects such as Pokémon, Hip Hop or Cosmopolitan into truly global phenomena, and the local derivatives and versions of global culture that are necessarily disconnected from their origins in order to cater for the local market. It thereby presents a collective argument that, whilst local social formations, and patterns of consumption and participation in Asia are still very much dependent on global cultural developments and the phenomena of modernity, yet such dependence is often concretized, reshaped and distorted by the local media to cater for the local market. Contents: Introduction: Asian Popular Culture: The Global (Dis)continuity Anthony Y.H. Fung Part 1: The Dominance of Global Continuity: Cultural Localization and Adaptation 1. One Region, Two Modernities: Disneyland in Tokyo and Hong Kong Micky Lee and Anthony Y.H. Fung 2. Comic Travels: Disney Publishing in the People’s Republic of China Jennifer Altehenger 3. When Chinese Youth Meet Harry Potter: Translating Consumption and Middle Class Identification John Nguyet Erni 4.New Forms of Transborder Visuality in Urban China: Saving Face for Magazine Covers Eric Kit-Wai Ma 5. Cultural Consumption and Masculinity: A Case Study of GQ Magazine Covers in Taiwan Hong-Chi Shiau Part 2: Global Discontinuity: The Local Absorption of Global Culture 6. An Unlocalized and Unglobalized Subculture: English Language Independent Music in Singapore Kai Khiun Liew and Shzr Ee Tan 7. The Localized Production of Jamaican Music in Thailand Viriya Sawangchot 8. Consuming Online Games in Taiwan: Global Games and Local Market Lai-Chi Chen 9. The Rise of the Korean Cinema in Inbound and Outbound Globalization Shin Dong Kim Part 3: Cultural Domestication: A New Form of Global Continuity 10. Pocket Capitalism and Virtual Intimacy: Pokémon as a Symptom of Post-Industrial Youth Culture Anne Allison 11. Playing the Global Game: Japan Brand and Globalization Kukhee Choo Part 4: China as a Rising Market: Cultural Antagonism and Globalization 12. China’s New Creative Strategy: The Utilization of Cultural Soft Power and New Markets Michael Keane and Bonnie Liu 13. Renationalizing Hong Kong Cinema: The Gathering Force of the Mainland Market Michael Curtin

How distributional preferences shape incentives on (experimental) markets for credence goods

Credence goods markets suffer from inefficiencies caused by superior information of sellers about the surplus-maximizing quality. While standard theory predicts that equal mark-up prices solve the credence goods problem if customers can verify the quality received, experimental evidence indicates the opposite. We identify a lack of robustness of institutional design with respect to heterogeneity in distributional preferences as a possible cause and design new experiments that allow for parsimonious identification of sellers’ distributional types. Our results indicate that less than a fourth of the subjects behave according to standard theory’s assumption, the rest behaving either in line with non-standard selfish or in accordance with non-trivial other-regarding preferences. We discuss consequences of our findings for institutional design and agent selection.

Innovative methods for assessing viability of diversification into new markets : a study based on an engineering consultancy

This study resulted in the development of a decision making tool for engineering consultancies looking to diversify into new markets. It reviewed existing decision tools used by contractor's entering new markets to develop a bespoke tool for engineering consultants to establish more rigor around the decision making process rather than rely purely on the intuition of company executives. The tool can be used for developing medium and long term company strategies or as a quick and efficient way to assess the viability of new market opportunities when they arise. A combination of Delphi and Analytical Hierarchy Process was selected as the basis of the decision theory.