THERMAL REGIME AND STABILITY OF JURUMIRIM RESERVOIR (PARANAPANEMA RIVER, SAO-PAULO, BRAZIL)

Thermal regime and stability in Jurumirim Reservoir (São Paulo, Brazil) were studied for a year. Isothermy and thermal stratification were observed from June to September and from October to March, respectively. The annual heat budget was 14.0 Kcal . cm-2 and average heat gain per day was 67.2 cal . cm-2 . day-1. Maximum stability and wind work reached 324.2 and 3,037.5 g . cm . cm-2, respectively. According to thermal structure and heat content, Jurumirim Reservoir was classified as a warm tropical monomictic lake.

Transient Earth system responses to cumulative carbon dioxide emissions: linearities, uncertainties, and probabilities in an observation-constrained model ensemble

Information on the relationship between cumulative fossil CO2 emissions and multiple climate targets is essential to design emission mitigation and climate adaptation strategies. In this study, the transient response of a climate or environmental variable per trillion tonnes of CO2 emissions, termed TRE, is quantified for a set of impact-relevant climate variables and from a large set of multi-forcing scenarios extended to year 2300 towards stabilization. An  ∼ 1000-member ensemble of the Bern3D-LPJ carbon–climate model is applied and model outcomes are constrained by 26 physical and biogeochemical observational data sets in a Bayesian, Monte Carlo-type framework. Uncertainties in TRE estimates include both scenario uncertainty and model response uncertainty. Cumulative fossil emissions of 1000 Gt C result in a global mean surface air temperature change of 1.9 °C (68 % confidence interval (c.i.): 1.3 to 2.7 °C), a decrease in surface ocean pH of 0.19 (0.18 to 0.22), and a steric sea level rise of 20 cm (13 to 27 cm until 2300). Linearity between cumulative emissions and transient response is high for pH and reasonably high for surface air and sea surface temperatures, but less pronounced for changes in Atlantic meridional overturning, Southern Ocean and tropical surface water saturation with respect to biogenic structures of calcium carbonate, and carbon stocks in soils. The constrained model ensemble is also applied to determine the response to a pulse-like emission and in idealized CO2-only simulations. The transient climate response is constrained, primarily by long-term ocean heat observations, to 1.7 °C (68 % c.i.: 1.3 to 2.2 °C) and the equilibrium climate sensitivity to 2.9 °C (2.0 to 4.2 °C). This is consistent with results by CMIP5 models but inconsistent with recent studies that relied on short-term air temperature data affected by natural climate variability.

Ice and snow measurements during Nathaniel B. Palmer cruise NBP0709 (SIMBA experiment)

The Sea Ice Mass Balance in the Antarctic (SIMBA) experiment was conducted from the RVIB N.B. Palmer in September and October 2007 in the Bellingshausen Sea in an area recently experiencing considerable changes in both climate and sea ice cover. Snow and ice properties were observed at 3 short-term stations and a 27-day drift station (Ice Station Belgica, ISB) during the winter-spring transition. Repeat measurements were performed on sea ice and snow cover at 5 ISB sites, each having different physical characteristics, with mean ice (snow) thicknesses varying from 0.6 m (0.1 m) to 2.3 m (0.7 m). Ice cores retrieved every five days from 2 sites and measured for physical, biological, and chemical properties. Three ice mass-balance buoys (IMBs) provided continuous records of snow and ice thickness and temperature. Meteorological conditions changed from warm fronts with high winds and precipitation followed by cold and calm periods through four cycles during ISB. The snow cover regulated temperature flux and controlled the physical regime in which sea ice morphology changed. Level thin ice areas had little snow accumulation and experienced greater thermal fluctuations resulting in brine salinity and volume changes, and winter maximum thermodynamic growth of ~0.6 m in this region. Flooding and snow-ice formation occurred during cold spells in ice and snow of intermediate thickness. In contrast, little snow-ice formed in flooded areas with thicker ice and snow cover, instead nearly isothermal, highly permeable ice persisted. In spring, short-lived cold air episodes did not effectively penetrate the sea ice nor overcome the effect of ocean heat flux, thus favoring net ice thinning from bottom melt over ice thickening from snow-ice growth, in all cases. These warm ice conditions were consistent with regional remote sensing observations of earlier ice breakup and a shorter sea ice season, more recently observed in the Bellingshausen Sea.

Paleoceanographic data from cores M23414 and PS1243

Variations in the poleward-directed Atlantic heat transfer was investigated over the past 135 ka with special emphasis on the last and present interglacial climate development (Eemian and Holocene). Both interglacials exhibited very similar climatic oscillations during each preceding glacial terminations (deglacial TI and TII). Like TI, also TII has pronounced cold-warm-cold changes akin to events such as H1, Bølling/Allerød, and the Younger Dryas. But unlike TI, the cold events in TII were associated with intermittent southerly invasions of an Atlantic faunal component which underscores quite a different water mass evolution in the Nordic Seas. Within the Eemian interglaciation proper, peak warming intervals were antiphased between the Nordic Seas and North Atlantic. Moreover, inferred temperatures for the Nordic Seas were generally colder in the Eemian than in the Holocene, and vice versa for the North Atlantic. A reduced intensity of Atlantic Ocean heat transfer to the Arctic therefore characterized the Eemian, requiring a reassessment of the actual role of the ocean-atmosphere system behind interglacial, but also, glacial climate changes.

Ice-rafted debris record in the Prydz Bay

Ice-rafted debris mass accumulation rates (IRD MAR) at a drill site on the Antarctic continental margin are investigated to evaluate the linkages between East Antarctic Ice Sheet extent and Southern Ocean temperatures in the early to mid-Pliocene. ODP Site 1165 is within 400 km of the Antarctic coastline and in the direct pathway of icebergs released by the Amery Ice Shelf. The Amery Ice Shelf is the largest ice shelf in East Antarctica and it buttresses the Lambert Glacier drainage system, which accounts for 14% of the outflow from the East Antarctic Ice Sheet. IRD MAR were low during peak Southern Ocean warming in the early Pliocene. After a brief precursor, a tenfold increase in IRD MAR at 3.3 Ma marks the termination of the early Pliocene ice sheet minimum, coincident with the M2 glacial. For the mid-Pliocene, a strong correlation exists between the high-amplitude signal in the LR04 benthic stack and IRD MAR, suggesting linkages between East Antarctic ice extent, global ice volume and deep-water temperatures. The IRD record at Site 1165 provides evidence of greater sensitivity of the Lambert Glacier-Amery Ice Shelf system to Southern Ocean warming than is currently predicted by ice sheet models, which may relate to uncertainties in the understanding of ocean heat uptake, poleward heat transport and ice sheet-ocean interactions.

Grain size composition of marine and river bottom sediments

According to average grain size parameters (Kd, Kd1) recent sediments from the northern Caspian Sea and the Barents Sea shelf are similar, while sediments from the Norwegian Sea are closer to their counterparts of the World Ocean. Seaward content of subcolloidal (<0.001 mm) size fraction increases against the background of decreasing proportions of coarse- and medium-grained pelite (<0.01 mm) material.

Age model and stable isotope record of DSDP holes 48-401 and 86-577

Early Paleogene warm climates may have been linked to different modes and sources of deepwater formation. Warm polar temperatures of the Paleocene and Eocene may have resulted from either increased atmospheric trace gases or increased heat transport through deep and intermediate waters. The possibility of increasing ocean heat transport through the production of warm saline deep waters (WSDW) in the Tethyan region has generated considerable interest. In addition, General Circulation Model results indicate that deepwater source regions may be highly sensitive to changing basin configurations. To decipher deepwater changes, we examined detailed benthic foraminiferal faunal and isotopic records of the late Paleocene through the early Eocene (~60 to 50 Ma) from two critical regions: the North Atlantic (Bay of Biscay Site 401) and the Pacific (Shatsky Rise Site 577). These records are compared with published data from the Southern Ocean (Maud Rise Site 690, Islas Orcadas Rise Site 702). During the late Paleocene, similar benthic foraminiferal delta18O values were recorded at all four sites. This indicates uniform deepwater temperatures, consistent with a single source of deep water. The highest delta13C values were recorded in the Southern Ocean and were 0.5 per mil more positive than those of the Pacific. We infer that the Southern Ocean was proximal to a source of nutrient-depleted deep water during the late Paleocene. Upper Paleocene Reflector Ab was cut on the western Bermuda Rise by cyclonically circulating bottom water, also suggesting a vigorous source of bottom water in the Southern Ocean. A dramatic negative excursion in both carbon and oxygen isotopes occurred in the latest Paleocene in the Southern Ocean. This is a short-term (<100 kyr), globally synchronous event which also is apparent in both the Atlantic and Pacific records as a carbon isotopic excursion of approximately 1 per mil. Faunal analyses from the North Atlantic and Pacific sites indicate that the largest benthic foraminiferal faunal turnover of the Cenozoic was synchronous with the isotopic excursion, lending support to the hypothesis that the extinctions were caused by a change in deepwater circulation. We speculate that the Southern Ocean deepwater source was reduced or eliminated at the time of the excursion. During the early Eocene, Southern Ocean delta13C values remained enriched relative to the North Atlantic and Pacific. However, the Southern Ocean was also enriched in delta18O relative to these basins. We interpret that these patterns indicate that although the Southern Ocean was proximal to a source of cool, nutrient-depleted water, the intermediate to upper deep water sites of the North Atlantic and Pacific were ventilated by a different source that probably originated in low latitudes, i.e., WSDW.

Stable isotope ratios of benthic foraminifera in mid-Pleitsocene sediments of ODP Site 108-664 in the equatorial Atlantic

Five delta13C records from the deep ocean, extending back to 1.3 Ma, were examined in order to constrain changes in mean ocean carbon isotope composition and thermohaline circulation over the 41- to 100-ka climate transition. These data show that significant perturbations in mean ocean carbon chemistry were associated with the mid-Pleistocene climate transition. Notable features of the last 1.3 Myr are (1) a pronounced ~0.3? decrease in mean ocean delta13C between 0.9 and 1.0 Myr, followed by a return to pre-1.0 Ma values by 400 ka B.P., which we propose was due to the onetime addition of isotopically depleted terrestrial carbon to the ocean, possibly associated with an increase in global aridity (and decrease in the size of the biosphere) across the 41- to 100-ka transition; (2) no change in the Atlantic-Pacific (A-P) delta13C gradient over the last 1.3 Myr, suggesting no change in mean ocean nutrient content accompanied the addition of light carbon; and (3) stronger vertical nutrient fractionation in the North Atlantic in the middle Pleistocene between sites 607 and 552, suggesting weaker North Atlantic Deep Water formation at this time relative to the early and late Pleistocene. We also find evidence for a more pronounced deep recirculation gyre in the western North Atlantic basin in the early Brunhes, as evidenced by "aging" of deep northern basin water (site 607) relative to deep water in the equatorial Atlantic (site 664).

Nd isotope data for ODP Leg 208 holes

The flow of deep-water masses is a key component of heat transport in the modern climate system, yet the role of deep-ocean heat transport during periods of extreme warmth is poorly understood. The present mode of meridional overturning circulation is characterized by deep-water formation in both the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. However, a different mode of meridional overturning circulation operated during the extreme greenhouse warmth of the early Cenozoic, during which time the Southern Ocean was the dominant region of deep-water formation. The combination of general global cooling and tectonic evolution of the Atlantic basins over the past ~55 m.y. ultimately led to the development of a mode of overturning circulation characterized by both Southern Ocean and North Atlantic deep-water sources. The change in deep-water circulation mode may, in turn, have affected global climate; however, unraveling the causes and consequences of this transition requires a better understanding of the timing of the transition. New Nd isotope data from the southeastern Atlantic Ocean indicate that the initial transition to a bipolar mode of deep-water circulation occurred in the early Oligocene, ca. 33 Ma. The likely cause of significant deep-water production in the North Atlantic was tectonic deepening of the sill separating the Greenland-Norwegian Sea from the North Atlantic.