Métodos de previsão auto-regressivo aplicado a uma série de volume de produção de caminhões

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

Métodos de previsão auto-regressivo aplicado a uma série de volume de produção de caminhões

The national truck fleet has expanded strongly in recent decades. However, due to fluctuations in the demand that the market is exposed, it needed up making more effective strategic decisions of automakers. These decisions are made after an evaluation of guaranteed sales forecasts. This work aims to generate an annual forecast of truck production by Box and Jenkins methodology. They used annual data for referring forecast modeling from the year 1957 to 2014, which were obtained by the National Association of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea). The model used was Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and can choose the best model for the series under study, and the ARIMA (2,1,3) as representative for conducting truck production forecast

Assessment of nose protector for sport activities: finite element analysis

There has been a significant increase in the number of facial fractures stemming from sport activities in recent years, with the nasal bone one of the most affected structures. Researchers recommend the use of a nose protector, but there is no standardization regarding the material employed. Clinical experience has demonstrated that a combination of a flexible and rigid layer of ethylene vinyl acetate (EVA) offers both comfort and safety to practitioners of sports. The aim of the present study was the investigation into the stresses generated by the impact of a rigid body on the nasal bone on models with and without an EVA protector. For such, finite element analysis was employed. A craniofacial model was constructed from images obtained through computed tomography. The nose protector was modeled with two layers of EVA (1 mm of rigid EVA over 2 mm of flexible EVA), following the geometry of the soft tissue. Finite element analysis was performed using the LS Dyna program. The bone and rigid EVA were represented as elastic linear material, whereas the soft tissues and flexible EVA were represented as hyperelastic material. The impact from a rigid sphere on the frontal region of the face was simulated with a constant velocity of 20 m s-1 for 9.1 mu s. The model without the protector served as the control. The distribution of maximal stress of the facial bones was recorded. The maximal stress on the nasal bone surpassed the breaking limit of 0.130.34 MPa on the model without a protector, while remaining below this limit on the model with the protector. Thus, the nose protector made from both flexible and rigid EVA proved effective at protecting the nasal bones under high-impact conditions.

The prediction of flash evaporation in superheated fuel injections for automotive applications

In gasoline Port Fuel Injection (PFI) and Direct Injection (GDI) internal combustion engines, the liquid fuel might be injected into a gaseous ambient in a superheated state, resulting in flash boiling of the fuel. The importance to investigate and predict such a process is due to the influence it has on the liquid fuel atomization and vaporization and thus on combustion, with direct implications on engine performances and exhaust gas emissions. The topic of the present PhD research involves the numerical analysis of the behaviour of the superheated fuel during the injection process, in high pressure injection systems like the ones equipping GDI engines. Particular emphasis is on the investigation of the effects of the fuel superheating degree on atomization dynamics and spray characteristics. The present work is a look at the flash evaporation and flash boiling modeling, from an engineering point of view, addressed to keep the complex physics involved as simple as possible, however capturing the main characteristics of a superheated fuel injection.

Neuronale Netzwerke des Zentralkomplexes und ein räumliches Arbeitsgedächtnis von Drosophila melanogaster

Zielgerichtete Orientierung ermöglicht es Lebewesen, überlebenswichtige Aufgaben, wie die Suche nach Ressourcen, Fortpflanzungspartnern und sicheren Plätzen zu bewältigen. Dafür ist es essentiell, die Umgebung sensorisch wahrzunehmen, frühere Erfahrungen zu speichern und wiederabzurufen und diese Informationen zu integrieren und in motorische Aktionen umzusetzen.rnWelche Neuronengruppen vermitteln zielgerichtete Orientierung im Gehirn einer Fliege? Welche sensorischen Informationen sind in einem gegebenen Kontext relevant und wie werden diese Informationen sowie gespeichertes Vorwissen in motorische Aktionen übersetzt? Wo findet im Gehirn der Übergang von der sensorischen Verarbeitung zur motorischen Kontrolle statt? rnDer Zentralkomplex, ein Verbund von vier Neuropilen des Zentralhirns von Drosophila melanogaster, fungiert als Übergang zwischen in den optischen Loben vorverarbeiteten visuellen Informationen und prämotorischem Ausgang. Die Neuropile sind die Protocerebralbrücke, der Fächerförmige Körper, der Ellipsoidkörper und die Noduli. rnIn der vorliegenden Arbeit konnte gezeigt werden, dass Fruchtfliegen ein räumliches Arbeitsgedächtnis besitzen. Dieses Gedächtnis kann aktuelle visuelle Information ersetzen, wenn die Sicht auf das Zielobjekt verloren geht. Dies erfordert die sensorische Wahrnehmung von Zielobjekten, die Speicherung der Position, die kontinuierliche Integration von Eigen-und Objektposition, sowie die Umsetzung der sensorischen Information in zielgerichtete Bewegung. Durch konditionale Expression von Tetanus Toxin mittels des GAL4/UAS/GAL80ts Systems konnte gezeigt werden, dass die Ringneurone, welche in den Ellipsoidkörper projizieren, für das Orientierungsgedächtnis notwendig sind. Außerdem konnte gezeigt werden, dass Fliegen, denen die ribosomale Serinkinase S6KII fehlt, die Richtung verlieren, sobald keine Objekte mehr sichtbar sind und, dass die partielle Rettung dieser Kinase ausschließlich in den Ringneuronenklassen R3 und R4d hinreichend ist, um das Gedächtnis wieder herzustellen. Bei dieser Gedächtnisleistung scheint es sich um eine idiothetische Form der Orientierung zu handeln. rn Während das räumliche Arbeitsgedächtnis nach Verschwinden von Objekten relevant ist, wurde in der vorliegende Arbeit auch die Vermittlung zielgerichteter Bewegung auf sichtbare Objekte untersucht. Dabei wurde die zentrale Frage bearbeitet, welche Neuronengruppen visuelle Orientierung vermitteln. Anhand von Gehirnstrukturmutanten konnte gezeigt werden, dass eine intakte Protocerebralbrücke notwendig ist, um Laufgeschwindigkeit, Laufaktivität und Zielgenauigkeit bei der Ansteuerung visueller Stimuli korrekt zu vermitteln. Dabei scheint das Horizontale Fasersystem, welches von der Protocerebralbrücke über den Fächerförmigen Körper auf den Zentralkomplex assoziierte Neuropile, die Ventralkörper, projiziert, notwendig für die lokomotorische Kontrolle und die zielgenaue Bewegung zu sein. Letzeres konnte zum einen durch Blockade der synaptischen Transmission anhand konditionaler Tetanus Toxin Expression mittels des GAL4/UAS/GAL80ts Systems im Horizontalen Fasersystem gezeigt werden;. zum anderen auch durch partielle Rettung der in den Strukturmutanten betroffenen Gene. rn Den aktuellen Ergebnissen und früheren Studien folgend, ergibt sich dabei ein Modell, wie zielgerichtete Bewegung auf visuelle Stimuli neuronal vermittelt werden könnte. Nach diesem Modell bildet die Protocerebralbrücke die Azimuthpositionen von Objekten ab und das Horizontale Fasersystem vermittelt die entsprechende lokomotorische Wo-Information für zielgerichtete Bewegungen. Die Eigenposition in Relation zum Zielobjekt wird über die Ringneurone und den Ellipsoidkörper vermittelt. Wenn das Objekt aus der Sicht verschwindet, kann die Relativposition ideothetisch ermittelt werden und integriert werden mit Vorinformation über das Zielobjekt, die im Fächerförmigen Körper abgelegt ist (Was-Information). Die resultierenden Informationen könnten dann über das Horizontale Fasersystem in den Ventralkörpern auf absteigende Neurone gelangen und in den Thorax zu den motorischen Zentren weitergeleitet werden.rn

The foundations of computer assisted surgery

Using navigation systems in general orthopaedic surgery and, in particular, knee replacement is becoming more and more accepted. This paper describes the basic technological concepts of modern computer assisted surgical systems. It explains the variation in currently available systems and outlines research activities that will potentially influence future products. In general, each navigation system is defined by three components: (1) the therapeutic object is the anatomical structure that is operated on using the navigation system, (2) the virtual object represents an image of the therapeutic object, with radiological images or computer generated models potentially being used, and (3) last but not least, the navigator acquires the spatial position and orientation of instruments and anatomy thus providing the necessary data to replay surgical action in real-time on the navigation system's screen.

Flow-Centric, Back-In-Time Debugging

Conventional debugging tools present developers with means to explore the run-time context in which an error has occurred. In many cases this is enough to help the developer discover the faulty source code and correct it. However, rather often errors occur due to code that has executed in the past, leaving certain objects in an inconsistent state. The actual run-time error only occurs when these inconsistent objects are used later in the program. So-called back-in-time debuggers help developers step back through earlier states of the program and explore execution contexts not available to conventional debuggers. Nevertheless, even back-in-time debuggers do not help answer the question, ``Where did this object come from?'' The Object-Flow Virtual Machine, which we have proposed in previous work, tracks the flow of objects to answer precisely such questions, but this VM does not provide dedicated debugging support to explore faulty programs. In this paper we present a novel debugger, called Compass, to navigate between conventional run-time stack-oriented control flow views and object flows. Compass enables a developer to effectively navigate from an object contributing to an error back-in-time through all the code that has touched the object. We present the design and implementation of Compass, and we demonstrate how flow-centric, back-in-time debugging can be used to effectively locate the source of hard-to-find bugs.

Disrupting frontal eye-field activity impairs memory recall

A large body of research demonstrated that participants preferably look back to the encoding location when retrieving visual information from memory. However, the role of this 'looking back to nothing' is still debated. The goal of the present study was to extend this line of research by examining whether an important area in the cortical representation of the oculomotor system, the frontal eye field (FEF), is involved in memory retrieval. To interfere with the activity of the FEF, we used inhibitory continuous theta burst stimulation (cTBS). Before stimulation was applied, participants encoded a complex scene and performed a short-term (immediately after encoding) or long-term (after 24 h) recall task, just after cTBS over the right FEF or sham stimulation. cTBS did not affect overall performance, but stimulation and statement type (object vs. location) interacted. cTBS over the right FEF tended to impair object recall sensitivity, whereas there was no effect on location recall sensitivity. These findings suggest that the FEF is involved in retrieving object information from scene memory, supporting the hypothesis that the oculomotor system contributes to memory recall.

Córdoba en pedazos : habitar/circular en contextos sociosegregados

La ciudad de Córdoba se ha ido constituyendo como ciudad turística/ciudad espectáculo, a través de un “embellecimiento estratégico" que la vuelve extraña a sus propios habitantes, especialmente a los de clases subalternas. Las presentes reflexiones abordan las experiencias de habitar/desplazarse por la ciudad de estos sujetos durante la última década. Partimos de una breve referencia a la forma sociohabitacional ciudad barrio como respuesta de vivienda social generada por el Gobierno Provincial que impactó fuertemente en la experiencia de los “beneficiarios" como en el perfil de la ciudad. Desde una perspectiva metodológica en clave benjaminiana orientada a “pensar en/a partir de imágenes", presentamos algunas escenas expresivas de los modos de habitar, percibir y sentirse en la ciudad, algunas imágenes que condensan ciertos estados de sentir que manifiestan los pobladores -mediante la palabra pero también mediante la forma de apropiación de la vivienda y del barrio observada-. Ponemos en juego estas imágenes con otras, producto de una encuesta realizada en las ciudades barrio. Buscamos así reconstruir algunos de los fragmentos de la urbe cordobesa tal como es vivida, pedazos que abarcan el mero espacio de la casa, y trayectos fuertemente segregados por clase.

MorphCol 2004-2013. A collection of Fortran 77 programs for morphometry

This is a technical description in html format of simple fortran programs for Macintosh for the morphometric analysis of tests planktonic foraminifera under reflected light, with special focus on the Neogene group of Globorotalia menardii. The second part of this report gives information and performance tests about the development of AMOR (Automated Measurement system for the mORphometry of microfossils). AMOR is Windows based and helps to orientate and collect digital images of menardiform globorotalids. The above fortran programs may be useful to extract and analyze some morphometric parameters from images collected with AMOR. After unzipping the archive file please open the Start.html file using a common web browser like firefox. In case of any questions or problems, please contact Michael W. Knappertsbusch (mailto:michael.knappertsbusch@unibas.ch).

Automated Tools for Layer Recognition (BMPix) and Counting (PEAK)

We present tools for rapid and quantitative detection of sediment lamination. The BMPix tool extracts color and gray-scale curves from images at pixel resolution. The PEAK tool uses the gray-scale curve and performs, for the first time, fully automated counting of laminae based on three methods. The maximum count algorithm counts every bright peak of a couplet of two laminae (annual resolution) in a smoothed curve. The zero-crossing algorithm counts every positive and negative halfway-passage of the curve through a wide moving average, separating the record into bright and dark intervals (seasonal resolution). The same is true for the frequency truncation method, which uses Fourier transformation to decompose the curve into its frequency components before counting positive and negative passages. We applied the new methods successfully to tree rings, to well-dated and already manually counted marine varves from Saanich Inlet, and to marine laminae from the Antarctic continental margin. In combination with AMS14C dating, we found convincing evidence that laminations in Weddell Sea sites represent varves, deposited continuously over several millennia during the last glacial maximum. The new tools offer several advantages over previous methods. The counting procedures are based on a moving average generated from gray-scale curves instead of manual counting. Hence, results are highly objective and rely on reproducible mathematical criteria. Also, the PEAK tool measures the thickness of each year or season. Since all information required is displayed graphically, interactive optimization of the counting algorithms can be achieved quickly and conveniently.

Paleoclimate investiations on sediment core MD01-2378

We present a high-resolution (not, vert, similar 60-110 yr) multi-proxy record spanning Marine Isotope Stage 3 from IMAGES Core MD01-2378 (13°04.95'S and 121°47.27'E, 1783 m water depth), located in the Timor Sea, off NW Australia. Today, this area is influenced by the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which drives monsoonal winds during austral summer and by the main outflow of the Indonesian Throughflow, which represents a key component of the global thermohaline circulation system. Thus, this core is ideally situated to monitor the linkages between tropical and high latitude climate variability. Benthic d18O data (Planulina wuellerstorfi) clearly reflect Antarctic warm events (A1-A4) as recorded by the EPICA Byrd and Dronning Maud Land ice cores. This southern high latitude signal is transferred by deep and intermediate water masses flowing northward from the Southern Ocean into the Indian Ocean. Planktonic d18O shows closer affinity to northern high latitudes planktonic and ice core records, although only the longer-lasting Dansgaard-Oeschger warm events, 8, 12, 14, and 16-17 are clearly expressed in our record. This northern high latitude signal in the surface water is probably transmitted through atmospheric teleconnections and coupling of the Asian-Australian monsoon systems. Benthic foraminiferal census counts suggest a coupling of Antarctic cooling with carbon flux patterns in the Timor Sea. We relate increasing abundances of carbon-flux sensitive species at 38-45 ka to the northeastward migration of the West Australian Current frontal area. This water mass reorganization is also supported by concurrent decreases in Mg/Ca and planktonic d18O values (Globigerinoides ruber white).

Cloud Computing Service for Managing Large Medical Image Data-Sets Using Balanced Collaborative Agents

Managing large medical image collections is an increasingly demanding important issue in many hospitals and other medical settings. A huge amount of this information is daily generated, which requires robust and agile systems. In this paper we present a distributed multi-agent system capable of managing very large medical image datasets. In this approach, agents extract low-level information from images and store them in a data structure implemented in a relational database. The data structure can also store semantic information related to images and particular regions. A distinctive aspect of our work is that a single image can be divided so that the resultant sub-images can be stored and managed separately by different agents to improve performance in data accessing and processing. The system also offers the possibility of applying some region-based operations and filters on images, facilitating image classification. These operations can be performed directly on data structures in the database.

A proposal for the metrological characterization of circular features with digital optical machines

This paper aims to analyze the different adjustment methods commonly used to characterize indirect metrology circular features: least square circle, minimum zone circle, maximum inscribed circle and minimum circumscribed circle. The analysis was performed from images obtained by digital optical machines. The calculation algorithms, self-developed, have been implemented in Matlab® and take into consideration as study variables: the amplitude of angular sector of the circular feature, its nominal radio and the magnification used by the optical machine. Under different conditions, it was determined the radius and circularity error of different circular standards. The comparison of the results, obtained by the different methods of adjustments used, with certified values for the standards, has allowed us to determine the accuracy of each method and its scope.