Flood frequency analysis by a bivariate model based on copulas

La adecuada estimación de avenidas de diseño asociadas a altos periodos de retorno es necesaria para el diseño y gestión de estructuras hidráulicas como presas. En la práctica, la estimación de estos cuantiles se realiza normalmente a través de análisis de frecuencia univariados, basados en su mayoría en el estudio de caudales punta. Sin embargo, la naturaleza de las avenidas es multivariada, siendo esencial tener en cuenta características representativas de las avenidas, tales como caudal punta, volumen y duración del hidrograma, con el fin de llevar a cabo un análisis apropiado; especialmente cuando el caudal de entrada se transforma en un caudal de salida diferente durante el proceso de laminación en un embalse o llanura de inundación. Los análisis de frecuencia de avenidas multivariados han sido tradicionalmente llevados a cabo mediante el uso de distribuciones bivariadas estándar con el fin de modelar variables correlacionadas. Sin embargo, su uso conlleva limitaciones como la necesidad de usar el mismo tipo de distribuciones marginales para todas las variables y la existencia de una relación de dependencia lineal entre ellas. Recientemente, el uso de cópulas se ha extendido en hidrología debido a sus beneficios en relación al contexto multivariado, permitiendo superar los inconvenientes de las técnicas tradicionales. Una copula es una función que representa la estructura de dependencia de las variables de estudio, y permite obtener la distribución de frecuencia multivariada de dichas variables mediante sus distribuciones marginales, sin importar el tipo de distribución marginal utilizada. La estimación de periodos de retorno multivariados, y por lo tanto, de cuantiles multivariados, también se facilita debido a la manera en la que las cópulas están formuladas. La presente tesis doctoral busca proporcionar metodologías que mejoren las técnicas tradicionales usadas por profesionales para estimar cuantiles de avenida más adecuados para el diseño y la gestión de presas, así como para la evaluación del riesgo de avenida, mediante análisis de frecuencia de avenidas bivariados basados en cópulas. Las variables consideradas para ello son el caudal punta y el volumen del hidrograma. Con el objetivo de llevar a cabo un estudio completo, la presente investigación abarca: (i) el análisis de frecuencia de avenidas local bivariado centrado en examinar y comparar los periodos de retorno teóricos basados en la probabilidad natural de ocurrencia de una avenida, con el periodo de retorno asociado al riesgo de sobrevertido de la presa bajo análisis, con el fin de proporcionar cuantiles en una estación de aforo determinada; (ii) la extensión del enfoque local al regional, proporcionando un procedimiento completo para llevar a cabo un análisis de frecuencia de avenidas regional bivariado para proporcionar cuantiles en estaciones sin aforar o para mejorar la estimación de dichos cuantiles en estaciones aforadas; (iii) el uso de cópulas para investigar tendencias bivariadas en avenidas debido al aumento de los niveles de urbanización en una cuenca; y (iv) la extensión de series de avenida observadas mediante la combinación de los beneficios de un modelo basado en cópulas y de un modelo hidrometeorológico. Accurate design flood estimates associated with high return periods are necessary to design and manage hydraulic structures such as dams. In practice, the estimate of such quantiles is usually done via univariate flood frequency analyses, mostly based on the study of peak flows. Nevertheless, the nature of floods is multivariate, being essential to consider representative flood characteristics, such as flood peak, hydrograph volume and hydrograph duration to carry out an appropriate analysis; especially when the inflow peak is transformed into a different outflow peak during the routing process in a reservoir or floodplain. Multivariate flood frequency analyses have been traditionally performed by using standard bivariate distributions to model correlated variables, yet they entail some shortcomings such as the need of using the same kind of marginal distribution for all variables and the assumption of a linear dependence relation between them. Recently, the use of copulas has been extended in hydrology because of their benefits regarding dealing with the multivariate context, as they overcome the drawbacks of the traditional approach. A copula is a function that represents the dependence structure of the studied variables, and allows obtaining the multivariate frequency distribution of them by using their marginal distributions, regardless of the kind of marginal distributions considered. The estimate of multivariate return periods, and therefore multivariate quantiles, is also facilitated by the way in which copulas are formulated. The present doctoral thesis seeks to provide methodologies that improve traditional techniques used by practitioners, in order to estimate more appropriate flood quantiles for dam design, dam management and flood risk assessment, through bivariate flood frequency analyses based on the copula approach. The flood variables considered for that goal are peak flow and hydrograph volume. In order to accomplish a complete study, the present research addresses: (i) a bivariate local flood frequency analysis focused on examining and comparing theoretical return periods based on the natural probability of occurrence of a flood, with the return period associated with the risk of dam overtopping, to estimate quantiles at a given gauged site; (ii) the extension of the local to the regional approach, supplying a complete procedure for performing a bivariate regional flood frequency analysis to either estimate quantiles at ungauged sites or improve at-site estimates at gauged sites; (iii) the use of copulas to investigate bivariate flood trends due to increasing urbanisation levels in a catchment; and (iv) the extension of observed flood series by combining the benefits of a copula-based model and a hydro-meteorological model.

Direct sequencing of bacterial and P1 artificial chromosome-nested deletions for identifying position-specific single-nucleotide polymorphisms

A loxP-transposon retrofitting strategy for generating large nested deletions from one end of the insert DNA in bacterial artificial chromosomes and P1 artificial chromosomes was described recently [Chatterjee, P. K. & Coren, J. S. (1997) Nucleic Acids Res. 25, 2205–2212]. In this report, we combine this procedure with direct sequencing of nested-deletion templates by using primers located in the transposon end to illustrate its value for position-specific single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) discovery from chosen regions of large insert clones. A simple ampicillin sensitivity screen was developed to facilitate identification and recovery of deletion clones free of transduced transposon plasmid. This directed approach requires minimal DNA sequencing, and no in vitro subclone library generation; positionally oriented SNPs are a consequence of the method. The procedure is used to discover new SNPs as well as physically map those identified from random subcloned libraries or sequence databases. The deletion templates, positioned SNPs, and markers are also used to orient large insert clones into a contig. The deletion clone can serve as a ready resource for future functional genomic studies because each carries a mammalian cell-specific antibiotic resistance gene from the transposon. Furthermore, the technique should be especially applicable to the analysis of genomes for which a full genome sequence or radiation hybrid cell lines are unavailable.

Nested expression domains for odorant receptors in zebrafish olfactory epithelium

The mapping of high-dimensional olfactory stimuli onto the two-dimensional surface of the nasal sensory epithelium constitutes the first step in the neuronal encoding of olfactory input. We have used zebrafish as a model system to analyze the spatial distribution of odorant receptor molecules in the olfactory epithelium by quantitative in situ hybridization. To this end, we have cloned 10 very divergent zebrafish odorant receptor molecules by PCR. Individual genes are expressed in sparse olfactory receptor neurons. Analysis of the position of labeled cells in a simplified coordinate system revealed three concentric, albeit overlapping, expression domains for the four odorant receptors analyzed in detail. Such regionalized expression should result in a corresponding segregation of functional response properties. This might represent the first step of spatial encoding of olfactory input or be essential for the development of the olfactory system.

Archimedean solids: Transition metal mediated rational self-assembly of supramolecular-truncated tetrahedra

A family of nanoscale-sized supramolecular cage compounds with a polyhedral framework is prepared by self-assembly from tritopic building blocks and rectangular corner units via noncovalent coordination interactions. These highly symmetrical cage compounds are described as face-directed, self-assembled truncated tetrahedra with Td symmetry.

Rapid generation of nested chromosomal deletions on mouse chromosome 2

Nested chromosomal deletions are powerful genetic tools. They are particularly suited for identifying essential genes in development either directly or by screening induced mutations against a deletion. To apply this approach to the functional analysis of mouse chromosome 2, a strategy for the rapid generation of nested deletions with Cre recombinase was developed and tested. A loxP site was targeted to the Notch1 gene on chromosome 2. A targeted line was cotransfected with a second loxP site and a plasmid for transient expression of Cre. Independent random integrations of the second loxP site onto the targeted chromosome in direct repeat orientation created multiple nested deletions. By virtue of targeting in an F1 hybrid embryonic stem cell line, F1(129S1×Cast/Ei), the deletions could be verified and rapidly mapped. Ten deletions fell into seven size classes, with the largest extending six or seven centiMorgans. The cytology of the deletion chromosomes were determined by fluorescent in situ hybridization. Eight deletions were cytologically normal, but the two largest deletions had additional rearrangements. Three deletions, including the largest unrearranged deletion, have been transmitted through the germ line. Several endpoints also have been cloned by plasmid rescue. These experiments illustrate the means to rapidly create and map deletions anywhere in the mouse genome. They also demonstrate an improved method for generating nested deletions in embryonic stem cells.

Mortalità e incidenza di tumore in una coorte di lavoratori esposti ad asbesto nel settore della navalmeccanica. Confronti esterni, interni e caso-controllo nested

Obiettivi. Lo scopo di questo studio è di confrontare la mortalità e l’incidenza per tutte le cause, tutti i tumori, tumori specifici e per le cause non neoplastiche, in una coorte dei lavoratori impiegati nel cantiere navale di Monfalcone (GO) tra il 1974 e il 1994, con quella della popolazione generale della regione FVG e d’Italia. L’obiettivo è eseguire tali confronti considerando il livello di esposizione ad amianto, la durata di esposizione (in anni) precedente al 1985, il periodo di prima assunzione, quali principali indicatori di esposizione occupazionale ad asbesto. Obiettivo secondario è quello di contribuire alla conoscenza circa la correlazione tra esposizione ad asbesto e l’incidenza di tumori nelle principali sedi digestive. Metodi. Tramite metodo indiretto sono stati calcolati SIR (periodo 1995-2009) e SMR (periodo 1995-2012) per tumore maligno della pleura, tumore di trachea bronchi e polmone, per tutti i tumori e per malattie non neoplastiche. È stato condotto uno studio caso- controllo nested per la stima degli gli ORs rispettivamente per tumore maligno della pleura e del polmone. Sono stati applicati modelli di Poisson per la stima degli IRRs riguardanti le principali sedi digestive, utilizzando quali variabili esplicative: a) il rischio di esposizione ad asbesto legato alla mansione e b) il numero di anni di esposizione precedenti al 1985. Risultati. Nell’intera coorte (5582 uomini) gli SMR indicavano un eccesso di mortalità per tumore maligno della pleura incrementato rispettivamente di circa 7 volte (SMR= 7,03; IC95% 5,61-8,79) e di poco più di 14 volte (SMR= 14,20; IC95% 11,33-17,75) rispettivamente quando il confronto è stato fatto con la popolazione standard del FVG e dell’Italia. L’aumento della mortalità per tumore maligno della pleura risulta fortemente aumentato in tutte le stratificazioni. Gli SMR per il tumore di trachea, bronchi e polmone sono risultati essere prossimi all'unità quando le analisi sono state eseguite nell’intera coorte, mentre risultano aumentati in modo significativo rispetto alla popolazione generale quando calcolati nei soggetti a rischio medio e assunti presso i cantieri navali di Monfalcone prima del 1974 (SMR= 1,38 95%CI 1,00-1,85) e nei soggetti classificati a rischio medio e assunti nel periodo 1985-1994 (SMR= 4,88 95%CI 1,00-14,25). Analogamente, nell’intera coorte, i SIR per tumore maligno della pleura calcolati nell’intera coorte erano aumentati di oltre 7 volte (SIR= 7,65; IC95% 6,19-9,49), mentre l’incidenza del tumore di trachea bronchi e polmone non vede incrementi rispetto alla popolazione di riferimento. Coloro che hanno avuto una durata di esposizione maggiore di 30 anni prima del 1985 dimostrano un aumento dell’incidenza di tumore di trachea, bronchi e polmone (SIR=1,34 IC95% 1,00-1,77), statisticamente significativo, così come per coloro che son stati classificati a rischio medio di esposizione e assunti precedentemente al 1974 (SIR=1,46 IC95% 1,06-1,95) e per coloro che sono stati classificati ad alto rischio e assunti nel periodo 1985-1994 (SIR=5,68 IC95% 1,17-16,60). Nell’intera coorte si registra un significativo aumento di incidenza di tumore dello stomaco in coloro classificati a alto rischio (SIR= 1,47 IC95% 1,05-2,00), mentre l’incidenza di tumore del pancreas vede un incremento dell’incidenza in coloro classificati a medio rischio di esposizione ad asbesto (SIR= 2,21 IC95% 1,21-3,72). Il sottogruppo le cui informazioni risultavano mancanti mostrano un incremento del SIR, borderline ma non significativo, per tumore del colon-retto (SIR= 1,29 IC95% 0,94-1,73). Emerge un significativo aumento dell’incidenza del tumore dello stomaco in coloro con un periodo di esposizione precedente al 1985 compreso tra 10 e 20 anni (SIR= 1,71 IC95% 1,12-2,49). Anche i SIR per il tumore del pancreas vedono un incremento statisticamente significativo in coloro che hanno una durata di esposizione precedente al 1985 inferiore a 10 anni e maggiore di 30: rispettivamente i SIR sono stati di 2,23 (IC95% 1,07-4,10) e 2,57 (IC95% 1,53-4,07). I risultati relativi ai confronti interni non mostrano significatività statistica. Conclusioni. I risultati indicano che nella coorte degli uomini ex- lavoratori dei cantieri navali di Monfalcone vi era un incremento forte e statisticamente significativo della mortalità e dell’incidenza di tumore maligno della pleura rispetto sia alla popolazione generale del FVG sia a quella dell’Italia. Eccessi di mortalità ed incidenza sono stati rilevati talvolta anche per il tumore di trachea, bronchi e polmone, quando le analisi sono state condotte stratificando la coorte in gruppi omogenei di rischio. Il più elevato eccesso rispetto all’atteso sia della mortalità per tumore maligno della pleura e del tumore del polmone, che dell’incidenza, si osservava nei lavoratori con mansioni a rischio medio, seguito dal gruppo con mansioni a rischio elevato. I Risultati riguardanti l’incidenza dei tumori delle principali sedi digestive ha visto nell’intera coorte un aumento significativo dei SIR per tumore dello stomaco e del pancreas, anche quando condotti per sottogruppi. Tuttavia le stime relative agli outcome diversi dal tumore maligno della pleura e del tumore del polmone devono essere interpretate con cautela. Le associazioni positive riscontrate tramite confronti interni non presentano significatività statistica.

Copulas in QTL mapping

The standard variance components method for mapping quantitative trait loci is derived on the assumption of normality. Unsurprisingly, statistical tests based on this method do not perform so well if this assumption is not satisfied. We use the statistical concept of copulas to relax the assumption of normality and derive a test that can perform well under any distribution of the continuous trait. In particular, we discuss bivariate normal copulas in the context of sib-pair studies. Our approach is illustrated by a linkage analysis of lipoprotein(a) levels, whose distribution is highly skewed. We demonstrate that the asymptotic critical levels of the test can still be calculated using the interval mapping approach. The new method can be extended to more general pedigrees and multivariate phenotypes in a similar way as the original variance components method.

A nested Petri net framework for modeling and analyzing multi-agent systems

In the past two decades, multi-agent systems (MAS) have emerged as a new paradigm for conceptualizing large and complex distributed software systems. A multi-agent system view provides a natural abstraction for both the structure and the behavior of modern-day software systems. Although there were many conceptual frameworks for using multi-agent systems, there was no well established and widely accepted method for modeling multi-agent systems. This dissertation research addressed the representation and analysis of multi-agent systems based on model-oriented formal methods. The objective was to provide a systematic approach for studying MAS at an early stage of system development to ensure the quality of design. ^ Given that there was no well-defined formal model directly supporting agent-oriented modeling, this study was centered on three main topics: (1) adapting a well-known formal model, predicate transition nets (PrT nets), to support MAS modeling; (2) formulating a modeling methodology to ease the construction of formal MAS models; and (3) developing a technique to support machine analysis of formal MAS models using model checking technology. PrT nets were extended to include the notions of dynamic structure, agent communication and coordination to support agent-oriented modeling. An aspect-oriented technique was developed to address the modularity of agent models and compositionality of incremental analysis. A set of translation rules were defined to systematically translate formal MAS models to concrete models that can be verified through the model checker SPIN (Simple Promela Interpreter). ^ This dissertation presents the framework developed for modeling and analyzing MAS, including a well-defined process model based on nested PrT nets, and a comprehensive methodology to guide the construction and analysis of formal MAS models.^