Modelling the effect of the physical and chemical characteristics of the materials used as casing layers on the production parameters of Agaricus bisporus

The aim of this research was to show the mathematical data obtained through the correlations found between the physical and chemical characteristics of casing layers and the final mushrooms' properties. For this purpose, 8 casing layers were used: soil, soil + peat moss, soil + black peat, soil + composted pine bark, soil + coconut fibre pith, soil + wood fibre, soil + composted vine shoots and, finally, the casing of La Rioja subjected to the ruffling practice. The conclusion that interplays in the fructification process with only the physical and chemical characteristics of casing are complicated was drawn. The mathematical data obtained in earliness could be explained in non-ruffled cultivation. The variability observed for the mushroom weight and the mushroom diameter variables could be explained in both ruffled and non-ruffled cultivations. Finally, the properties of the final quality of mushrooms were established by regression analysis.

Modelling the lethargic crab disease.

The lethargic crab disease (LCD) is an emergent infirmity that has decimated native populations of the mangrove land crab (Ucides cordatus, Decapoda: Ocypodidae) along the Brazilian coast. Several potential etiological agents have been linked with LCD, but only in 2005 was it proved that it is caused by an ascomycete fungus. This is the first attempt to develop a mathematical model to describe the epidemiological dynamics of LCD. The model presents four possible scenarios, namely, the trivial equilibrium, the disease-free equilibrium, endemic equilibrium, and limit cycles arising from a Hopf bifurcation. The threshold values depend on the basic reproductive number of crabs and fungi, and on the infection rate. These scenarios depend on both the biological assumptions and the temporal evolution of the disease. Numerical simulations corroborate the analytical results and illustrate the different temporal dynamics of the crab and fungus populations.

Modelling the dynamics of dengue real epidemics

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Modelling the maximum potential of nitrogen deposition and requirements of lysine for broilers

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Modelling the surface circulation and thermal structure of a tropical reservoir using three-dimensional hydrodynamic lake model and remote-sensing data

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Implementing new northernmost records to modelling the distribution of Hypsiboas caingua (Anura: Hylidae) in South America

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Spatial mechanisms for modelling the human ankle passive motion

Knowledge on how ligaments and articular surfaces guide passive motion at the human ankle joint complex is fundamental for the design of relevant surgical treatments. The dissertation presents a possible improvement of this knowledge by a new kinematic model of the tibiotalar articulation. In this dissertation two one-DOF spatial equivalent mechanisms are presented for the simulation of the passive motion of the human ankle joint: the 5-5 fully parallel mechanism and the fully parallel spherical wrist mechanism. These mechanisms are based on the main anatomical structures of the ankle joint, namely the talus/calcaneus and the tibio/fibula bones at their interface, and the TiCaL and CaFiL ligaments. In order to show the accuracy of the models and the efficiency of the proposed procedure, these mechanisms are synthesized from experimental data and the results are compared with those obtained both during experimental sessions and with data published in the literature. Experimental results proved the efficiency of the proposed new mechanisms to simulate the ankle passive motion and, at the same time, the potentiality of the mechanism to replicate the ankle’s main anatomical structures quite well. The new mechanisms represent a powerful tool for both pre-operation planning and new prosthesis design.

Slope stability analysis by multi-temporal DEMs and 3D modelling: The 2002 and 2007 Stromboli landslide events

Natural hazard related to the volcanic activity represents a potential risk factor, particularly in the vicinity of human settlements. Besides to the risk related to the explosive and effusive activity, the instability of volcanic edifices may develop into large landslides often catastrophically destructive, as shown by the collapse of the northern flank of Mount St. Helens in 1980. A combined approach was applied to analyse slope failures that occurred at Stromboli volcano. SdF slope stability was evaluated by using high-resolution multi-temporal DTMMs and performing limit equilibrium stability analyses. High-resolution topographical data collected with remote sensing techniques and three-dimensional slope stability analysis play a key role in understanding instability mechanism and the related risks. Analyses carried out on the 2002–2003 and 2007 Stromboli eruptions, starting from high-resolution data acquired through airborne remote sensing surveys, permitted the estimation of the lava volumes emplaced on the SdF slope and contributed to the investigation of the link between magma emission and slope instabilities. Limit Equilibrium analyses were performed on the 2001 and 2007 3D models, in order to simulate the slope behavior before 2002-2003 landslide event and after the 2007 eruption. Stability analyses were conducted to understand the mechanisms that controlled the slope deformations which occurred shortly after the 2007 eruption onset, involving the upper part of slope. Limit equilibrium analyses applied to both cases yielded results which are congruent with observations and monitoring data. The results presented in this work undoubtedly indicate that hazard assessment for the island of Stromboli should take into account the fact that a new magma intrusion could lead to further destabilisation of the slope, which may be more significant than the one recently observed because it will affect an already disarranged deposit and fractured and loosened crater area. The two-pronged approach based on the analysis of 3D multi-temporal mapping datasets and on the application of LE methods contributed to better understanding volcano flank behaviour and to be prepared to undertake actions aimed at risk mitigation.

Modelling the effects of nitrogen deposition and carbon dioxide enrichment on forest carbon balance

Atmospheric CO2 concentration ([CO2]) has increased over the last 250 years, mainly due to human activities. Of total anthropogenic emissions, almost 31% has been sequestered by the terrestrial biosphere. A considerable contribution to this sink comes from temperate and boreal forest ecosystems of the northern hemisphere, which contain a large amount of carbon (C) stored as biomass and soil organic matter. Several potential drivers for this forest C sequestration have been proposed, including increasing atmospheric [CO2], temperature, nitrogen (N) deposition and changes in management practices. However, it is not known which of these drivers are most important. The overall aim of this thesis project was to develop a simple ecosystem model which explicitly incorporates our best understanding of the mechanisms by which these drivers affect forest C storage, and to use this model to investigate the sensitivity of the forest ecosystem to these drivers. I firstly developed a version of the Generic Decomposition and Yield (G’DAY) model to explicitly investigate the mechanisms leading to forest C sequestration following N deposition. Specifically, I modified the G’DAY model to include advances in understanding of C allocation, canopy N uptake, and leaf trait relationships. I also incorporated a simple forest management practice subroutine. Secondly, I investigated the effect of CO2 fertilization on forest productivity with relation to the soil N availability feedback. I modified the model to allow it to simulate short-term responses of deciduous forests to environmental drivers, and applied it to data from a large-scale forest Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment. Finally, I used the model to investigate the combined effects of recent observed changes in atmospheric [CO2], N deposition, and climate on a European forest stand. The model developed in my thesis project was an effective tool for analysis of effects of environmental drivers on forest ecosystem C storage. Key results from model simulations include: (i) N availability has a major role in forest ecosystem C sequestration; (ii) atmospheric N deposition is an important driver of N availability on short and long time-scales; (iii) rising temperature increases C storage by enhancing soil N availability and (iv) increasing [CO2] significantly affects forest growth and C storage only when N availability is not limiting.

New mechanisms for modelling the motion of the human ankle complex

The relevance of human joint models was shown in the literature. In particular, the great importance of models for the joint passive motion simulation (i.e. motion under virtually unloaded conditions) was outlined. They clarify the role played by the principal anatomical structures of the articulation, enhancing the comprehension of surgical treatments, and in particular the design of total ankle replacement and ligament reconstruction. Equivalent rigid link mechanisms proved to be an efficient tool for an accurate simulation of the joint passive motion. This thesis focuses on the ankle complex (i.e. the anatomical structure composed of the tibiotalar and the subtalar joints), which has a considerable role in human locomotion. The lack of interpreting models of this articulation and the poor results of total ankle replacement arthroplasty have strongly suggested devising new mathematical models capable of reproducing the restraining function of each structure of the joint and of replicating the relative motion of the bones which constitute the joint itself. In this contest, novel equivalent mechanisms are proposed for modelling the ankle passive motion. Their geometry is based on the joint’s anatomical structures. In particular, the role of the main ligaments of the articulation is investigated under passive conditions by means of nine 5-5 fully parallel mechanisms. Based on this investigation, a one-DOF spatial mechanism is developed for modelling the passive motion of the lower leg. The model considers many passive structures constituting the articulation, overcoming the limitations of previous models which took into account few anatomical elements of the ankle complex. All the models have been identified from experimental data by means of optimization procedure. Then, the simulated motions have been compared to the experimental one, in order to show the efficiency of the approach and thus to deduce the role of each anatomical structure in the ankle kinematic behavior.

Modelling the stable, nocturnal boundary layer: different approaches to turbulence closure problem

Il lavoro è dedicato all'analisi fisica e alla modellizzazione dello strato limite atmosferico in condizioni stabili. L'obiettivo principale è quello di migliorare i modelli di parametrizzazione della turbulenza attualmente utilizzati dai modelli meteorologici a grande scala. Questi modelli di parametrizzazione della turbolenza consistono nell' esprimere gli stress di Reynolds come funzioni dei campi medi (componenti orizzontali della velocità e temperatura potenziale) usando delle chiusure. La maggior parte delle chiusure sono state sviluppate per i casi quasi-neutrali, e la difficoltà è trattare l'effetto della stabilità in modo rigoroso. Studieremo in dettaglio due differenti modelli di chiusura della turbolenza per lo strato limite stabile basati su assunzioni diverse: uno schema TKE-l (Mellor-Yamada,1982), che è usato nel modello di previsione BOLAM (Bologna Limited Area Model), e uno schema sviluppato recentemente da Mauritsen et al. (2007). Le assunzioni delle chiusure dei due schemi sono analizzate con dati sperimentali provenienti dalla torre di Cabauw in Olanda e dal sito CIBA in Spagna. Questi schemi di parametrizzazione della turbolenza sono quindi inseriti all'interno di un modello colonnare dello strato limite atmosferico, per testare le loro predizioni senza influenze esterne. Il confronto tra i differenti schemi è effettuato su un caso ben documentato in letteratura, il "GABLS1". Per confermare la validità delle predizioni, un dataset tridimensionale è creato simulando lo stesso caso GABLS1 con una Large Eddy Simulation. ARPS (Advanced Regional Prediction System) è stato usato per questo scopo. La stratificazione stabile vincola il passo di griglia, poichè la LES deve essere ad una risoluzione abbastanza elevata affinchè le tipiche scale verticali di moto siano correttamente risolte. Il confronto di questo dataset tridimensionale con le predizioni degli schemi turbolenti permettono di proporre un insieme di nuove chiusure atte a migliorare il modello di turbolenza di BOLAM. Il lavoro è stato compiuto all' ISAC-CNR di Bologna e al LEGI di Grenoble.

Modelling the dynamic response of rockfall protection barriers

Mountainous areas are prone to natural hazards like rockfalls. Among the many countermeasures, rockfall protection barriers represent an effective solution to mitigate the risk. They are metallic structures designed to intercept rocks falling from unstable slopes, thus dissipating the energy deriving from the impact. This study aims at providing a better understanding of the response of several rockfall barrier types, through the development of rather sophisticated three-dimensional numerical finite elements models which take into account for the highly dynamic and non-linear conditions of such events. The models are built considering the actual geometrical and mechanical properties of real systems. Particular attention is given to the connecting details between the structural components and to their interactions. The importance of the work lies in being able to support a wide experimental activity with appropriate numerical modelling. The data of several full-scale tests carried out on barrier prototypes, as well as on their structural components, are combined with results of numerical simulations. Though the models are designed with relatively simple solutions in order to obtain a low computational cost of the simulations, they are able to reproduce with great accuracy the test results, thus validating the reliability of the numerical strategy proposed for the design of these structures. The developed models have shown to be readily applied to predict the barrier performance under different possible scenarios, by varying the initial configuration of the structures and/or of the impact conditions. Furthermore, the numerical models enable to optimize the design of these structures and to evaluate the benefit of possible solutions. Finally it is shown they can be also used as a valuable supporting tool for the operators within a rockfall risk assessment procedure, to gain crucial understanding of the performance of existing barriers in working conditions.