MODELLING AND FORECASTING INFLATION RATES IN GHANA: AN APPLICATION OF SARIMA MODELS

Ghana faces a macroeconomic problem of inflation for a long period of time. The problem in somehow slows the economic growth in this country. As we all know, inflation is one of the major economic challenges facing most countries in the world especially those in African including Ghana. Therefore, forecasting inflation rates in Ghana becomes very important for its government to design economic strategies or effective monetary policies to combat any unexpected high inflation in this country. This paper studies seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast inflation rates in Ghana. Using monthly inflation data from July 1991 to December 2009, we find that ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,0,1)12 can represent the data behavior of inflation rate in Ghana well. Based on the selected model, we forecast seven (7) months inflation rates of Ghana outside the sample period (i.e. from January 2010 to July 2010). The observed inflation rate from January to April which was published by Ghana Statistical Service Department fall within the 95% confidence interval obtained from the designed model. The forecasted results show a decreasing pattern and a turning point of Ghana inflation in the month of July.

TCA Evaluation : Lab Measurements, Modelling and System Simulations

The study reported here is part of a large project for evaluation of the Thermo-Chemical Accumulator (TCA), a technology under development by the Swedish company ClimateWell AB. The studies concentrate on the use of the technology for comfort cooling. This report concentrates on measurements in the laboratory, modelling and system simulation. The TCA is a three-phase absorption heat pump that stores energy in the form of crystallised salt, in this case Lithium Chloride (LiCl) with water being the other substance. The process requires vacuum conditions as with standard absorption chillers using LiBr/water. Measurements were carried out in the laboratories at the Solar Energy Research Center SERC, at Högskolan Dalarna as well as at ClimateWell AB. The measurements at SERC were performed on a prototype version 7:1 and showed that this prototype had several problems resulting in poor and unreliable performance. The main results were that: there was significant corrosion leading to non-condensable gases that in turn caused very poor performance; unwanted crystallisation caused blockages as well as inconsistent behaviour; poor wetting of the heat exchangers resulted in relatively high temperature drops there. A measured thermal COP for cooling of 0.46 was found, which is significantly lower than the theoretical value. These findings resulted in a thorough redesign for the new prototype, called ClimateWell 10 (CW10), which was tested briefly by the authors at ClimateWell. The data collected here was not large, but enough to show that the machine worked consistently with no noticeable vacuum problems. It was also sufficient for identifying the main parameters in a simulation model developed for the TRNSYS simulation environment, but not enough to verify the model properly. This model was shown to be able to simulate the dynamic as well as static performance of the CW10, and was then used in a series of system simulations. A single system model was developed as the basis of the system simulations, consisting of a CW10 machine, 30 m2 flat plate solar collectors with backup boiler and an office with a design cooling load in Stockholm of 50 W/m2, resulting in a 7.5 kW design load for the 150 m2 floor area. Two base cases were defined based on this: one for Stockholm using a dry cooler with design cooling rate of 30 kW; one for Madrid with a cooling tower with design cooling rate of 34 kW. A number of parametric studies were performed based on these two base cases. These showed that the temperature lift is a limiting factor for cooling for higher ambient temperatures and for charging with fixed temperature source such as district heating. The simulated evacuated tube collector performs only marginally better than a good flat plate collector if considering the gross area, the margin being greater for larger solar fractions. For 30 m2 collector a solar faction of 49% and 67% were achieved for the Stockholm and Madrid base cases respectively. The average annual efficiency of the collector in Stockholm (12%) was much lower than that in Madrid (19%). The thermal COP was simulated to be approximately 0.70, but has not been possible to verify with measured data. The annual electrical COP was shown to be very dependent on the cooling load as a large proportion of electrical use is for components that are permanently on. For the cooling loads studied, the annual electrical COP ranged from 2.2 for a 2000 kWh cooling load to 18.0 for a 21000 kWh cooling load. There is however a potential to reduce the electricity consumption in the machine, which would improve these figures significantly. It was shown that a cooling tower is necessary for the Madrid climate, whereas a dry cooler is sufficient for Stockholm although a cooling tower does improve performance. The simulation study was very shallow and has shown a number of areas that are important to study in more depth. One such area is advanced control strategy, which is necessary to mitigate the weakness of the technology (low temperature lift for cooling) and to optimally use its strength (storage).

Modelling and Administration of Contract-Based Systems

Mirroring the paper versions exchanged between businesses today, electronic contracts offer the possibility of dynamic, automatic creation and enforcement of restrictions and compulsions on agent behaviour that are designed to ensure business objectives are met. However, where there are many contracts within a particular application, it can be difficult to determine whether the system can reliably fulfil them all; computer-parsable electronic contracts may allow such verification to be automated. In this paper, we describe a conceptual framework and architecture specification in which normative business contracts can be electronically represented, verified, established, renewed, etc. In particular, we aim to allow systems containing multiple contracts to be checked for conflicts and violations of business objectives. We illustrate the framework and architecture with an aerospace example.

A methodology for building energy modelling and calibration in warm climates

PEDRINI, Aldomar; WESTPHAL, F. S.; LAMBERT, R.. A methodology for building energy modelling and calibration in warm climates. Building And Environment, Australia, n. 37, p.903-912, 2002. Disponível em: . Acesso em: 04 out. 2010.

Dynamics of experimental populations of native and introduced blowflies (Diptera: Calliphoridae): mathematical modelling and the transition from asymptotic equilibrium to bounded oscillations

The equilibrium dynamics of native and introduced blowflies is modelled using a density-dependent model of population growth that takes into account important features of the life-history in these flies. A theoretical analysis indicates that the product of maximum fecundity and survival is the primary determinant of the dynamics. Cochliomyia macellaria, a blowfly native to the Americas and the introduced Chrysomya megacephala and Chrysomya putoria, differ in their dynamics in that the first species shows a damping oscillatory behavior leading to a one-point equilibrium, whereas in the last two species population numbers show a two-point limit cycle. Simulations showed that variation in fecundity has a marked effect on the dynamics and indicates the possibility of transitions from one-point equilibrium to bounded oscillations and aperiodic behavior. Variation in survival has much less influence on the dynamics.

Modelling and optimization of the cephalosporin C production bioprocess in a fed-batch bioreactor with invert sugar as substrate

Cephalosporin C production process optimization was studied based on four experiments carried out in an agitated and aerated tank fermenter operated as a fed-batch reactor. The microorganism Cephalosporium acremonium ATCC 48272 (C-10) was cultivated in a synthetic medium containing glucose as major carbon and energy source. The additional medium contained a hydrolyzed sucrose solution as the main carbon and energy source and it was added after the glucose depletion. By manipulating the supplementary feed rate, it was possible to increase antibiotic production. A mathematical model to represent the fed-batch production process was developed. It was observed that the model was applicable under different operation conditions, showing that optimization studies can be made based on this model. (C) 1999 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling and determination of metabolic pools by stable carbon isotopes in the avian duodenal mucosa and albumen

Stable isotope analyses have helped in assessing dietary switches if the diet undergoes metabolic alteration (isotopic exchange). However, when considering the effects over time of switching from one diet to another, one can assess how quickly the new diet is incorporated into tissues via the isotopic renewal or incorporation rate, or turnover. Turnover is obtained using exponential curves that fit the original data, allowing the determination of practical order parameters such as the half-life (T) and the turnover constant (k). Researchers have found that metabolic incorporation can be fractionated. The resulting fractions, called metabolic pools, are identified using the linearization of the isotopic exchange model and its linear fit. This fractionation methodology is still not well defined. The objective of this study was to assess the behaviour of the metabolic renewal rate (turnover) in fractionated form, explain the theory, and apply it to data from the avian duodenal mucosa and albumen. We concluded that the duodenal mucosa has one metabolic pool, with a half-life of 1.23 days, and that the albumen has two metabolic pools, with half-lives of 1.89 and 6.32 days.

Spatial modelling and prediction on river networks: up model, down model or hybrid?

Preservation of rivers and water resources is crucial in most environmental policies and many efforts are made to assess water quality. Environmental monitoring of large river networks are based on measurement stations. Compared to the total length of river networks, their number is often limited and there is a need to extend environmental variables that are measured locally to the whole river network. The objective of this paper is to propose several relevant geostatistical models for river modeling. These models use river distance and are based on two contrasting assumptions about dependency along a river network. Inference using maximum likelihood, model selection criterion and prediction by kriging are then developed. We illustrate our approach on two variables that differ by their distributional and spatial characteristics: summer water temperature and nitrate concentration. The data come from 141 to 187 monitoring stations in a network on a large river located in the Northeast of France that is more than 5000 km long and includes Meuse and Moselle basins. We first evaluated different spatial models and then gave prediction maps and error variance maps for the whole stream network.

Gastrointestinal modelling and optimization of protein and phosphorus bioaccessibility by phytase in fish diets

Programa de doctorado: Acuicultura