Topological Complexity and Predictability in the Dynamics of a Tumor Growth Model with Shilnikov's Chaos

Dynamical systems modeling tumor growth have been investigated to determine the dynamics between tumor and healthy cells. Recent theoretical investigations indicate that these interactions may lead to different dynamical outcomes, in particular to homoclinic chaos. In the present study, we analyze both topological and dynamical properties of a recently characterized chaotic attractor governing the dynamics of tumor cells interacting with healthy tissue cells and effector cells of the immune system. By using the theory of symbolic dynamics, we first characterize the topological entropy and the parameter space ordering of kneading sequences from one-dimensional iterated maps identified in the dynamics, focusing on the effects of inactivation interactions between both effector and tumor cells. The previous analyses are complemented with the computation of the spectrum of Lyapunov exponents, the fractal dimension and the predictability of the chaotic attractors. Our results show that the inactivation rate of effector cells by the tumor cells has an important effect on the dynamics of the system. The increase of effector cells inactivation involves an inverse Feigenbaum (i.e. period-halving bifurcation) scenario, which results in the stabilization of the dynamics and in an increase of dynamics predictability. Our analyses also reveal that, at low inactivation rates of effector cells, tumor cells undergo strong, chaotic fluctuations, with the dynamics being highly unpredictable. Our findings are discussed in the context of tumor cells potential viability.

The murine model of infection with Leishmania major and its importance for the deciphering of mechanisms underlying differences in Th cell differentiation in mice from different genetic backgrounds.

Mice from the majority of inbred strains are resistant to infection by Leishmania major, an obligate intracellular protozoan parasite of macrophages in the mammalian host. In contrast, mice from BALB strains are unable to control infection and develop progressive disease. In this model of infection, genetically determined resistance and susceptibility have been clearly shown to result from the appearance of parasite-specific CD4+ T helper 1 or T helper 2 cells, respectively. This murine model of infection is considered as one of the best experimental systems for the study of the mechanisms operating in vivo at the initiation of polarised T helper 1 and T helper 2 cell maturation. Among the several factors influencing Th cell development, cytokines themselves critically regulate this process. The results accumulated during the last years have clarified some aspects of the role played by cytokines in Th cell differentiation. They are providing critical information that may ultimately lead to the rational devise of means by which to tailor immune responses to the effector functions that are most efficient in preventing and/or controlling infections with pathogens.

A New open economy macroeconomic model with endogenous portfolio diversification and firms entry

This paper provides a new benchmark for the analysis of the international diversi…cation puzzle in a tractable new open economy macroeconomic model. Building on Cole and Obstfeld (1991) and Heathcote and Perri (2009), this model speci…es an equilibrium model of perfect risk sharing in incomplete markets, with endogenous portfolios and number of varieties. Equity home bias may not be a puzzle but a perfectly optimal allocation for hedging risk. In contrast to previous work, the model shows that: (i) optimal international portfolio diversi…cation is driven by home bias in capital goods, independently of home bias in consumption, and by the share of income accruing to labour. The model explains reasonably well the recent patterns of portfolio allocations in developed economies; and (ii) optimal portfolio shares are independent of market dynamics.

A clinical prognostic model for the identification of low-risk patients with acute symptomatic pulmonary embolism and active cancer.

BACKGROUND: Physicians need a specific risk-stratification tool to facilitate safe and cost-effective approaches to the management of patients with cancer and acute pulmonary embolism (PE). The objective of this study was to develop a simple risk score for predicting 30-day mortality in patients with PE and cancer by using measures readily obtained at the time of PE diagnosis. METHODS: Investigators randomly allocated 1,556 consecutive patients with cancer and acute PE from the international multicenter Registro Informatizado de la Enfermedad TromboEmbólica to derivation (67%) and internal validation (33%) samples. The external validation cohort for this study consisted of 261 patients with cancer and acute PE. Investigators compared 30-day all-cause mortality and nonfatal adverse medical outcomes across the derivation and two validation samples. RESULTS: In the derivation sample, multivariable analyses produced the risk score, which contained six variables: age > 80 years, heart rate ≥ 110/min, systolic BP < 100 mm Hg, body weight < 60 kg, recent immobility, and presence of metastases. In the internal validation cohort (n = 508), the 22.2% of patients (113 of 508) classified as low risk by the prognostic model had a 30-day mortality of 4.4% (95% CI, 0.6%-8.2%) compared with 29.9% (95% CI, 25.4%-34.4%) in the high-risk group. In the external validation cohort, the 18% of patients (47 of 261) classified as low risk by the prognostic model had a 30-day mortality of 0%, compared with 19.6% (95% CI, 14.3%-25.0%) in the high-risk group. CONCLUSIONS: The developed clinical prediction rule accurately identifies low-risk patients with cancer and acute PE.

A Hull and White formula for a general stochastic volatility jump-diffusion model with applications to the study of the short-time behavior of the implied volatility

In this paper, generalizing results in Alòs, León and Vives (2007b), we see that the dependence of jumps in the volatility under a jump-diffusion stochastic volatility model, has no effect on the short-time behaviour of the at-the-money implied volatility skew, although the corresponding Hull and White formula depends on the jumps. Towards this end, we use Malliavin calculus techniques for Lévy processes based on Løkka (2004), Petrou (2006), and Solé, Utzet and Vives (2007).

Current status of a model system: the gene Gp-9 and its association with social organization in fire ants.

The Gp-9 gene in fire ants represents an important model system for studying the evolution of social organization in insects as well as a rich source of information relevant to other major evolutionary topics. An important feature of this system is that polymorphism in social organization is completely associated with allelic variation at Gp-9, such that single-queen colonies (monogyne form) include only inhabitants bearing B-like alleles while multiple-queen colonies (polygyne form) additionally include inhabitants bearing b-like alleles. A recent study of this system by Leal and Ishida (2008) made two major claims, the validity and significance of which we examine here. After reviewing existing literature, analyzing the methods and results of Leal and Ishida (2008), and generating new data from one of their study sites, we conclude that their claim that polygyny can occur in Solenopsis invicta in the U.S.A. in the absence of expression of the b-like allele Gp-9(b) is unfounded. Moreover, we argue that available information on insect OBPs (the family of proteins to which GP-9 belongs), on the evolutionary/population genetics of Gp-9, and on pheromonal/behavioral control of fire ant colony queen number fails to support their view that GP-9 plays no role in the chemosensory-mediated communication that underpins regulation of social organization. Our analyses lead us to conclude that there are no new reasons to question the existing consensus view of the Gp-9 system outlined in Gotzek and Ross (2007).

Confirmatory factor analysis of an integrated model of psycopathology assessed with MMPI-2-RF and the MCMI-III

We presented an integrated hierarchical model of psychopathology that more accurately captures empirical patterns of comorbidity between clinical syndromes and personality disorders.In order to verify the structural validity of the model proposed, this study aimed to analyze the convergence between the Restructured Clinical (RC) scales and Personality scales (PSY-5) of the MMPI-2-RF and the Clinical Syndrome and Personality Disorder scales of the MCMI-III.The MMPI-2-RF and MCMI-III were administered to a clinical sample of 377 outpatients (167 men and 210 women).The structural hypothesiswas assessed by using a Confirmatory Factor Analytic design with four common superordinate factors. An independent-cluster-basis solution was proposed based on maximum likelihood estimation and the application of several fit indices.The fit of the proposed model can be considered as good and more so if we take into account its complexity.

Solving Leontief Input-Output Model with Trapezoidal Fuzzy Numbers and Gauss-Seidel Algorithm

In this work a fuzzy linear system is used to solve Leontief input-output model with fuzzy entries. For solving this model, we assume that the consumption matrix from di erent sectors of the economy and demand are known. These assumptions heavily depend on the information obtained from the industries. Hence uncertainties are involved in this information. The aim of this work is to model these uncertainties and to address them by fuzzy entries such as fuzzy numbers and LR-type fuzzy numbers (triangular and trapezoidal). Fuzzy linear system has been developed using fuzzy data and it is solved using Gauss-Seidel algorithm. Numerical examples show the e ciency of this algorithm. The famous example from Prof. Leontief, where he solved the production levels for U.S. economy in 1958, is also further analyzed.

A speculative systems model of the dynamic interaction among students, faculty and administration in the community college, with particular reference to intrinsic motivation and the teacher-administrator interface

The challenge the community college faces in helping meet the needs of the living open system of society is examined in this study. It is postulated that internalization student outcomes are required by society to reduce entropy and remain self-renewing. Such behavior is characterized as having an intrinsically motivated energy source and displays the seeking and conquering of challenge, the development of reflective knowledge and skill, full use of all capabilities, internal control, growth orientation, high self-esteem, relativistic thinking and competence. The development of a conceptual systems model that suggests how transactions among students, faculty and administration might occur to best meet the needs of internalization outcomes in students, and intrinsic motivation in faculty is a major purpose of this study. It is a speculative model that is based on a synthesis of a wide variety of variables. Empirical evidence, theoretical considerations, and speculative ideas are gathered together from researchers and theoretici.ans who are working on separate answers to questions of intrinsic motivation, internal control and environments that encourage their development. The model considers the effect administrators·have on faculty anq the corresponding effect faculty may have on students. The major concentration is on the administrator--teacher interface.For administrators the model may serve as a guide in planning effective transactions, and establishing system goals. The teacher is offered a means to coordinate actions toward a specific overall objective, and the administrator, teacher and researcher are invited to use the model to experiment, innovate, verify the assumptions on which the model is based, and raise additional hypotheses. Goals and history of the community colleges in Ontario are examined against current problems, previous progress and open system thinking. The nature of the person as a five part system is explored with emphasis on intrinsic motivation. The nature, operation, conceptualization, and value of this internal energy source is reviewed in detail. The current state of society, education and management theory are considered and the value of intrinsically motivating teaching tasks together with "system four" leadership style are featured. Evidence is reviewed that suggests intrinsically motivated faculty are needed, and "system four" leadership style is the kind of interaction-influence system needed to nurture intrinsic motivation in faculty.

Forest fire plumes over the North Atlantic: p-TOMCAT model simulations with aircraft and satellite measurements from the ITOP/ICARTT campaign

Intercontinental Transport of Ozone and Precursors (ITOP) (part of International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT)) was an intense research effort to measure long-range transport of pollution across the North Atlantic and its impact on O3 production. During the aircraft campaign plumes were encountered containing large concentrations of CO plus other tracers and aerosols from forest fires in Alaska and Canada. A chemical transport model, p-TOMCAT, and new biomass burning emissions inventories are used to study the emissions long-range transport and their impact on the troposphere O3 budget. The fire plume structure is modeled well over long distances until it encounters convection over Europe. The CO values within the simulated plumes closely match aircraft measurements near North America and over the Atlantic and have good agreement with MOPITT CO data. O3 and NOx values were initially too great in the model plumes. However, by including additional vertical mixing of O3 above the fires, and using a lower NO2/CO emission ratio (0.008) for boreal fires, O3 concentrations are reduced closer to aircraft measurements, with NO2 closer to SCIAMACHY data. Too little PAN is produced within the simulated plumes, and our VOC scheme's simplicity may be another reason for O3 and NOx model-data discrepancies. In the p-TOMCAT simulations the fire emissions lead to increased tropospheric O3 over North America, the north Atlantic and western Europe from photochemical production and transport. The increased O3 over the Northern Hemisphere in the simulations reaches a peak in July 2004 in the range 2.0 to 6.2 Tg over a baseline of about 150 Tg.

Parallel performance and scalability experiments with the Danish Eulerian Model on the EPCC supercomputers

The Danish Eulerian Model (DEM) is a powerful air pollution model, designed to calculate the concentrations of various dangerous species over a large geographical region (e.g. Europe). It takes into account the main physical and chemical processes between these species, the actual meteorological conditions, emissions, etc.. This is a huge computational task and requires significant resources of storage and CPU time. Parallel computing is essential for the efficient practical use of the model. Some efficient parallel versions of the model were created over the past several years. A suitable parallel version of DEM by using the Message Passing Interface library (AIPI) was implemented on two powerful supercomputers of the EPCC - Edinburgh, available via the HPC-Europa programme for transnational access to research infrastructures in EC: a Sun Fire E15K and an IBM HPCx cluster. Although the implementation is in principal, the same for both supercomputers, few modifications had to be done for successful porting of the code on the IBM HPCx cluster. Performance analysis and parallel optimization was done next. Results from bench marking experiments will be presented in this paper. Another set of experiments was carried out in order to investigate the sensitivity of the model to variation of some chemical rate constants in the chemical submodel. Certain modifications of the code were necessary to be done in accordance with this task. The obtained results will be used for further sensitivity analysis Studies by using Monte Carlo simulation.

Lunar and solar FTIR nitric acid measurements at Eureka in winter 2001/2002: comparisons with observations at Thule and Kiruna and with CMAM and SLIMCAT model calculations

For the first time, vertical column measurements of (HNO3) above the Arctic Stratospheric Ozone Observatory (AStrO) at Eureka (80N, 86W), Canada, have been made during polar night using lunar spectra recorded with a Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectrometer, from October 2001 to March 2002. AStrO is part of the primary Arctic station of the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC). These measurements were compared with FTIR measurements at two other NDSC Arctic sites: Thule, Greenland (76.5N, 68.8W) and Kiruna, Sweden (67.8N, 20.4E). The measurements were also compared with two atmospheric models: the Canadian Middle Atmosphere Model (CMAM) and SLIMCAT. This is the first time that CMAM HNO3 columns have been compared with observations in the Arctic. Eureka lunar measurements are in good agreement with solar ones made with the same instrument. Eureka and Thule HNO3 columns are consistent within measurement error. Differences among HNO3 columns measured at Kiruna and those measured at Eureka and Thule can be explained on the basis of the available sunlight hours and the polar vortex location. The comparison of CMAM HNO3 columns with Eureka and Kiruna data shows good agreement, considering CMAM small inter-annual variability. The warm 2001/02 winter with almost no Polar Stratospheric Clouds (PSCs) makes the comparison of the warm climate version of CMAM with these observations a good test for CMAM under no PSC conditions. SLIMCAT captures the magnitude of HNO3 columns at Eureka, and the day-to-day variability, but generally reports higher HNO3 columns than the CMAM climatological mean columns.