Spinning welfare: The gains from process innovation in cotton and car production

Economists and economic historians want to know how much better life is today than in the past.Fifty years ago economic historians found surprisingly small gains from 19th century US railroads,while more recently economists have found relatively large gains from electricity, computers and cellphones. In each case the implicit or explicit assumption is that researchers were measuring the valueof a new good to society. In this paper we use the same techniques to find the value to society ofmaking existing goods cheaper. Henry Ford did not invent the car, and the inventors of mechanisedcotton spinning in the industrial revolution invented no new product. But both made existing productsdramatically cheaper, bringing them into the reach of many more consumers. That in turn haspotentially large welfare effects. We find that the consumer surplus of Henry Ford s production linewas around 2% by 1923, 15 years after Ford began to implement the moving assembly line, while themechanisation of cotton spinning was worth around 6% by 1820, 34 years after its initial invention.Both are large: of the same order of magnitude as consumer expenditure on these items, and as largeor larger than the value of the internet to consumers. On the social savings measure traditionally usedby economic historians, these process innovations were worth 15% and 18% respectively, makingthem more important than railroads. Our results remind us that process innovations can be at least asimportant for welfare and productivity as the invention of new products.

Are 10 min of seating enough to guarantee stable haemoglobin and haematocrit readings for the athlete's biological passport?

Haemoglobin (Hb) and haematocrit (Hct) are measured as indirect markers of doping in athletes. We studied the effect of posture on these parameters in a typical antidoping setting. Venous blood samples were obtained from nine endurance athletes (six males, three females) and nine control subjects (six males, three females) immediately and after 5, 10, 15, 20 and 30 min after having adopted a seated position from normal daily activity. Hb (CV 0.72%) and Hct (CV 0.87%) were determined using an automated cell counter, plasma volume changes were calculated. Differences between the time points, gender and groups were calculated using a mixed-model procedure. Significant changes were observed in the first 10 min after sitting down but no further changes were noted between 10 and 30 min. Mean directional change for Hb and Hct between 0 min and the average of the period from 10 to 30 min was -2.4% (-0.35 g/dl) for Hb and -2.7% (-1.2%) for Hct. Plasma volume increased accordingly. Neither group nor gender had significant effects. Under typical conditions encountered during blood testing in doping control, a period of 10 min in a seated position is sufficient for the vascular volumes to re-equilibrate and to adapt to the new posture.

Familiality and SNP heritability of age at onset and episodicity in major depressive disorder.

BACKGROUND: Strategies to dissect phenotypic and genetic heterogeneity of major depressive disorder (MDD) have mainly relied on subphenotypes, such as age at onset (AAO) and recurrence/episodicity. Yet, evidence on whether these subphenotypes are familial or heritable is scarce. The aims of this study are to investigate the familiality of AAO and episode frequency in MDD and to assess the proportion of their variance explained by common single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP heritability). METHOD: For investigating familiality, we used 691 families with 2-5 full siblings with recurrent MDD from the DeNt study. We fitted (square root) AAO and episode count in a linear and a negative binomial mixed model, respectively, with family as random effect and adjusting for sex, age and center. The strength of familiality was assessed with intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). For estimating SNP heritabilities, we used 3468 unrelated MDD cases from the RADIANT and GSK Munich studies. After similarly adjusting for covariates, derived residuals were used with the GREML method in GCTA (genome-wide complex trait analysis) software. RESULTS: Significant familial clustering was found for both AAO (ICC = 0.28) and episodicity (ICC = 0.07). We calculated from respective ICC estimates the maximal additive heritability of AAO (0.56) and episodicity (0.15). SNP heritability of AAO was 0.17 (p = 0.04); analysis was underpowered for calculating SNP heritability of episodicity. CONCLUSIONS: AAO and episodicity aggregate in families to a moderate and small degree, respectively. AAO is under stronger additive genetic control than episodicity. Larger samples are needed to calculate the SNP heritability of episodicity. The described statistical framework could be useful in future analyses.

Water retention and availability in soils of the State of Santa Catarina-Brazil: effect of textural classes, soil classes and lithology

The retention and availability of water in the soil vary according to the soil characteristics and determine plant growth. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate water retention and availability in the soils of the State of Santa Catarina, Brazil, according to the textural class, soil class and lithology. The surface and subsurface horizons of 44 profiles were sampled in different regions of the State and different cover crops to determine field capacity, permanent wilting point, available water content, particle size, and organic matter content. Water retention and availability between the horizons were compared in a mixed model, considering the textural classes, the soil classes and lithology as fixed factors and profiles as random factors. It may be concluded that water retention is greater in silty or clayey soils and that the organic matter content is higher, especially in Humic Cambisols, Nitisols and Ferralsol developed from igneous or sedimentary rocks. Water availability is greater in loam-textured soils, with high organic matter content, especially in soils of humic character. It is lower in the sandy texture class, especially in Arenosols formed from recent alluvial deposits or in gravelly soils derived from granite. The greater water availability in the surface horizons, with more organic matter than in the subsurface layers, illustrates the importance of organic matter for water retention and availability.

Stability and robustness of blood variables in an antidoping context.

Introduction:  With the setting up of the newly Athlete's Biological Passport antidoping programme, novel guidelines have been introduced to guarantee results beyond reproach. We investigated in this context, the effect of storage time on the variables commonly measured for the haematological passport. We also wanted to assess for these variables, the within and between analyzer variations. Methods:  Blood samples were obtained from top level male professional cyclists (27 samples for the first part of the study and 102 for the second part) taking part to major stage races. After collection, they were transported under refrigerated conditions (2 °C < T < 12 °C), delivered to the antidoping laboratory, analysed and then stored at approximately 4 °C to conduct analysis at different time points up to 72 h after delivery. A mixed-model procedure was used to determine the stability of the different variables. Results:  As expected haemoglobin concentration was not affected by storage and showed stability for at least 72 h. Under the conditions of our investigation, the reticulocytes percentage showed a much better stability than previous published data (> 48 h) and the technical comparison of the haematology analyzer demonstrated excellent results. Conclusion:  In conclusion, our data clearly demonstrate that as long as the World Anti-Doping Agency's guidelines are followed rigorously, all blood results reach the quality level required in the antidoping context.

Correlation between microtensile bond strength data and clinical outcome of Class V restorations.

OBJECTIVE: To determine if the results of resin-dentin microtensile bond strength (µTBS) is correlated with the outcome parameters of clinical studies on non-retentive Class V restorations. METHODS: Resin-dentin µTBS data were obtained from one test center; the in vitro tests were all performed by the same operator. The µTBS testing was performed 8h after bonding and after 6 months of storing the specimens in water. Pre-test failures (PTFs) of specimens were included in the analysis, attributing them a value of 1MPa. Prospective clinical studies on cervical restorations (Class V) with an observation period of at least 18 months were searched in the literature. The clinical outcome variables were retention loss, marginal discoloration and marginal integrity. Furthermore, an index was formulated to be better able to compare the laboratory and clinical results. Estimates of adhesive effects in a linear mixed model were used to summarize the clinical performance of each adhesive between 12 and 36 months. Spearman correlations between these clinical performances and the µTBS values were calculated subsequently. RESULTS: Thirty-six clinical studies with 15 adhesive/restorative systems for which µTBS data were also available were included in the statistical analysis. In general 3-step and 2-step etch-and-rinse systems showed higher bond strength values than the 2-step/3-step self-etching systems, which, however, produced higher values than the 1-step self-etching and the resin modified glass ionomer systems. Prolonged water storage of specimens resulted in a significant decrease of the mean bond strength values in 5 adhesive systems (Wilcoxon, p<0.05). There was a significant correlation between µTBS values both after 8h and 6 months of storage and marginal discoloration (r=0.54 and r=0.67, respectively). However, the same correlation was not found between µTBS values and the retention rate, clinical index or marginal integrity. SIGNIFICANCE: As µTBS data of adhesive systems, especially after water storage for 6 months, showed a good correlation with marginal discoloration in short-term clinical Class V restorations, longitudinal clinical trials should explore whether early marginal staining is predictive for future retention loss in non-carious cervical restorations.

Spatial statistical analysis and selection of genotypes in plant breeding

The objective of this study was to evaluate the efficiency of spatial statistical analysis in the selection of genotypes in a plant breeding program and, particularly, to demonstrate the benefits of the approach when experimental observations are not spatially independent. The basic material of this study was a yield trial of soybean lines, with five check varieties (of fixed effect) and 110 test lines (of random effects), in an augmented block design. The spatial analysis used a random field linear model (RFML), with a covariance function estimated from the residuals of the analysis considering independent errors. Results showed a residual autocorrelation of significant magnitude and extension (range), which allowed a better discrimination among genotypes (increase of the power of statistical tests, reduction in the standard errors of estimates and predictors, and a greater amplitude of predictor values) when the spatial analysis was applied. Furthermore, the spatial analysis led to a different ranking of the genetic materials, in comparison with the non-spatial analysis, and a selection less influenced by local variation effects was obtained.

Effect of Video Camera-Based Remote Roadway Condition Monitoring on Snow Removal-Related Maintenance Operations. 2014

Remote monitoring through the use of cameras is widely utilized for traffic operation, but has not been utilized widely for roadway maintenance operations. The Utah Department of Transportation (UDOT) has implemented a new remote monitoring system, referred to as a Cloud-enabled Remote Video Streaming (CRVS) camera system for snow removal-related maintenance operations in the winter. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of the use of the CRVS camera system in snow removal-related maintenance operations. This study was conducted in two parts: opinion surveys of maintenance station supervisors and an analysis on snow removal-related maintenance costs. The responses to the opinion surveys mostly displayed positive reviews of the use of the CRVS cameras. On a scale of 1 (least effective) to 5 (most effective), the average overall effectiveness given by the station supervisors was 4.3. An expedition trip for this study was defined as a trip that was made to just check the roadways if snow-removal was necessary. The average of the responses received from surveys was calculated to be a 33 percent reduction in expedition trips. For the second part of this study, an analysis was performed on the snow removal-related maintenance cost data provided by UDOT to see if the installation of a CRVS camera had an effect in reducing expedition trips. This expedition cost comparison was performed for 10 sets of maintenance stations within Utah. It was difficult to make any definitive inferences from the comparison of expedition costs over the years for which precipitation and expedition cost data were available; hence a statistical analysis was performed using the Mixed Model ANOVA. This analysis resulted in an average of 14 percent higher ratio of expedition costs at maintenance stations with a CRVS camera before the installation of the camera compared to the ratio of expedition costs after the installation of the camera. This difference was not proven to be statistically significant at the 95 percent confident level, but indicated that the installation of CRVS cameras was on the average helpful in reducing expedition costs and may be considered practically significant. It is recommended that more detailed and consistent maintenance cost records be prepared for accurate analysis of cost records for this type of study in the future.

FAM-MDR: a flexible family-based multifactor dimensionality reduction technique to detect epistasis using related individuals

We propose a novel multifactor dimensionality reduction method for epistasis detection in small or extended pedigrees, FAM-MDR. It combines features of the Genome-wide Rapid Association using Mixed Model And Regression approach (GRAMMAR) with Model-Based MDR (MB-MDR). We focus on continuous traits, although the method is general and can be used for outcomes of any type, including binary and censored traits. When comparing FAM-MDR with Pedigree-based Generalized MDR (PGMDR), which is a generalization of Multifactor Dimensionality Reduction (MDR) to continuous traits and related individuals, FAM-MDR was found to outperform PGMDR in terms of power, in most of the considered simulated scenarios. Additional simulations revealed that PGMDR does not appropriately deal with multiple testing and consequently gives rise to overly optimistic results. FAM-MDR adequately deals with multiple testing in epistasis screens and is in contrast rather conservative, by construction. Furthermore, simulations show that correcting for lower order (main) effects is of utmost importance when claiming epistasis. As Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) is a complex phenotype likely influenced by gene-gene interactions, we applied FAM-MDR to examine data on glucose area-under-the-curve (GAUC), an endophenotype of T2DM for which multiple independent genetic associations have been observed, in the Amish Family Diabetes Study (AFDS). This application reveals that FAM-MDR makes more efficient use of the available data than PGMDR and can deal with multi-generational pedigrees more easily. In conclusion, we have validated FAM-MDR and compared it to PGMDR, the current state-of-the-art MDR method for family data, using both simulations and a practical dataset. FAM-MDR is found to outperform PGMDR in that it handles the multiple testing issue more correctly, has increased power, and efficiently uses all available information.

Diurnal and exercise-related variability of haemoglobin and reticulocytes in athletes.

Haemoglobin (Hb) and Reticulocytes (Ret) are measured as indirect markers of doping in athletes. We studied the diurnal variation, the impact of exercise, fluid intake and ambient temperature in athletes on these parameters. Hourly venous blood samples were obtained from 36 male athletes of different disciplines (endurance (END) and non-endurance (NON-END)) over 12 h during a typical training day. Seven inactive subjects served as controls (CON). Hb and Ret were determined. A mixed model procedure was used to analyse the data. At baseline, Hb was similar for all groups, END showed lower Ret than NON-END and CON. Exercise showed a significant impact on Hb (+0.46 g/dl, p<0.001), the effect disappeared approximately 2 h after exercise. Hb decreased over the day by approximately 0.55 g/dl (p<0.01). There was no relevant effect on Ret. Fluid intake and ambient temperature had no significant effect. Hb shows significant diurnal- and exercise related variations. In an anti-doping context, most of these variations are in favour of the athlete. Blood samples taken after exercise might therefore provide reliable results and thus be used for the longitudinal monitoring of athletes if a timeframe for the re-equilibration of vascular volumes is respected.

Clinical effectiveness of direct class II restorations: a meta-analysis.

Purpose: More than five hundred million direct dental restorations are placed each year worldwide. In about 55% of the cases, resin composites or compomers are used, and in 45% amalgam. The longevity of posterior resin restorations is well documented. However, data on resin composites that are placed without enamel/dentin conditioning and resin composites placed with self-etching adhesive systems are missing. Material and Methods: The database SCOPUS was searched for clinical trials on posterior resin composites without restricting the search to the year of publication. The inclusion criteria were: (1) prospective clinical trial with at least 2 years of observation; (2) minimum number of restorations at last recall = 20; (3) report on dropout rate; (4) report of operative technique and materials used; (5) utilization of Ryge or modified Ryge evaluation criteria. For amalgam, only those studies were included that directly compared composite resin restorations with amalgam. For the statistical analysis, a linear mixed model was used with random effects to account for the heterogeneity between the studies. P-values under 0.05 were considered significant. Results: Of the 373 clinical trials, 59 studies met the inclusion criteria. In 70% of the studies, Class II and Class I restorations had been placed. The overall success rate of composite resin restorations was about 90% after 10 years, which was not different from that of amalgam. Restorations with compomers had a significantly lower longevity. The main reason for replacement were bulk fractures and caries adjacent to restorations. Both of these incidents were infrequent in most studies and accounted only for about 6% of all replaced restorations after 10 years. Restorations with macrofilled composites and compomer suffered significantly more loss of anatomical form than restorations with other types of material. Restorations that were placed without enamel acid etching and a dentin bonding agent showed significantly more marginal staining and detectable margins compared to those restorations placed using the enamel-etch or etch-and-rinse technique; restorations with self-etching systems were between the other groups. Restorations with compomer suffered significantly more chippings (repairable fracture) than restorations with other materials, which did not statistically differ among each other. Restorations that were placed with a rubber-dam showed significantly fewer material fractures that needed replacement, and this also had a significant effect on the overall longevity. Conclusion: Restorations with hybrid and microfilled composites that were placed with the enamel-etching technique and rubber-dam showed the best overall performance; the longevity of these restorations was similar to amalgam restorations. Compomer restorations, restorations placed with macrofilled composites, and resin restorations with no-etching or self-etching adhesives demonstrated significant shortcomings and shorter longevity.

Quantification of Myocardial Perfusion Using 13N-ammonia PET: a Cross-Comparison Study on Analysis Software Packages - Carimas, PMOD and FlowQuant

Aim. Several software packages (SWP) and models have been released for quantification of myocardial perfusion (MP). Although they all are validated against something, the question remains how well their values agree. The present analysis focused on cross-comparison of three SWP for MP quantification of 13N-ammonia PET studies. Materials & Methods. 48 rest and stress MP 13N-ammonia PET studies of hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) patients (Sciagrà et al., 2009) were analysed with three SW packages - Carimas, PMOD, and FlowQuant - by three observers blinded to the results of each other. All SWP implement the one-tissue-compartment model (1TCM, DeGrado et al. 1996), and first two - the two-tissue-compartment model (2TCM, Hutchins et al. 1990) as well. Linear mixed model for the repeated measures was fitted to the data. Where appropriate we used Bland-Altman plots as well. The reproducibility was assessed on global, regional and segmental levels. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), differences between the SWPs and between models were obtained. ICC≥0.75 indicated excellent reproducibility, 0.4≤ICC<0.75 indicated fair to good reproducibility, ICC<0.4 - poor reproducibility (Rosner, 2010). Results. When 1TCM MP values were compared, the SW agreement on global and regional levels was excellent, except for Carimas vs. PMOD at RCA: ICC=0.715 and for PMOD vs. FlowQuant at LCX:ICC=0.745 which were good. In segmental analysis in five segments: 7,12,13, 16, and 17 the agreement between all SWP was excellent; in the remaining 12 segments the agreement varied between the compared SWP. Carimas showed excellent agreement with FlowQuant in 13 segments and good in four - 1, 5, 6, 11: 0.687≤ICCs≤0.73; Carimas had excellent agreement with PMOD in 11 segments, good in five_4, 9, 10, 14, 15: 0.682≤ICCs≤0.737, and poor in segment 3: ICC=0.341. PMOD had excellent agreement with FlowQuant in eight segments and substantial-to-good in nine_1, 2, 3, 5, 6,8-11: 0.585≤ICCs≤0.738. Agreement between Carimas and PMOD for 2TCM was good at a global level: ICC=0.745, excellent at LCX (0.780) and RCA (0.774), good at LAD (0.662); agreement was excellent for ten segments, fair-to-substantial for segments 2, 3, 8, 14, 15 (0.431≤ICCs≤0.681), poor for segments 4 (0.384) and 17 (0.278). Conclusions. The three SWP used by different operators to analyse 13N-ammonia PET MP studies provide results that agree well at a global level, regional levels, and mostly well even at a segmental level. Agreement is better for 1TCM. Poor agreement at segments 4 and 17 for 2TCM needs further clarification.

Genetic parameters and simultaneous selection for root yield, adaptability and stability of cassava genotypes

The objective of this work was to estimate genetic parameters and to evaluate simultaneous selection for root yield and for adaptability and stability of cassava genotypes. The effects of genotypes were assumed as fixed and random, and the mixed model methodology (REML/Blup) was used to estimate genetic parameters and the harmonic mean of the relative performance of genotypic values (HMRPGV), for simultaneous selection purposes. Ten genotypes were analyzed in a complete randomized block design, with four replicates. The experiment was carried out in the municipalities of Altamira, Santarém, and Santa Luzia do Pará in the state of Pará, Brazil, in the growing seasons of 2009/2010, 2010/2011, and 2011/2012. Roots were harvested 12 months after planting, in all tested locations. Root yield had low coefficients of genotypic variation (4.25%) and broad-sense heritability of individual plots (0.0424), which resulted in low genetic gain. Due to the low genotypic correlation (0.15), genotype classification as to root yield varied according to the environment. Genotypes CPATU 060, CPATU 229, and CPATU 404 stood out as to their yield, adaptability, and stability.

Mapping genetic variants associated with beta-adrenergic responses in inbred mice.

β-blockers and β-agonists are primarily used to treat cardiovascular diseases. Inter-individual variability in response to both drug classes is well recognized, yet the identity and relative contribution of the genetic players involved are poorly understood. This work is the first genome-wide association study (GWAS) addressing the values and susceptibility of cardiovascular-related traits to a selective β(1)-blocker, Atenolol (ate), and a β-agonist, Isoproterenol (iso). The phenotypic dataset consisted of 27 highly heritable traits, each measured across 22 inbred mouse strains and four pharmacological conditions. The genotypic panel comprised 79922 informative SNPs of the mouse HapMap resource. Associations were mapped by Efficient Mixed Model Association (EMMA), a method that corrects for the population structure and genetic relatedness of the various strains. A total of 205 separate genome-wide scans were analyzed. The most significant hits include three candidate loci related to cardiac and body weight, three loci for electrocardiographic (ECG) values, two loci for the susceptibility of atrial weight index to iso, four loci for the susceptibility of systolic blood pressure (SBP) to perturbations of the β-adrenergic system, and one locus for the responsiveness of QTc (p<10(-8)). An additional 60 loci were suggestive for one or the other of the 27 traits, while 46 others were suggestive for one or the other drug effects (p<10(-6)). Most hits tagged unexpected regions, yet at least two loci for the susceptibility of SBP to β-adrenergic drugs pointed at members of the hypothalamic-pituitary-thyroid axis. Loci for cardiac-related traits were preferentially enriched in genes expressed in the heart, while 23% of the testable loci were replicated with datasets of the Mouse Phenome Database (MPD). Altogether these data and validation tests indicate that the mapped loci are relevant to the traits and responses studied.