A mathematical view of biological complexity

This essay is a trial on giving some mathematical ideas about the concept of biological complexity, trying to explore four different attributes considered to be essential to characterize a complex system in a biological context: decomposition, heterogeneous assembly, self-organization, and adequacy. It is a theoretical and speculative approach, opening some possibilities to further numerical and experimental work, illustrated by references to several researches that applied the concepts presented here. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Characterization and Performance Modeling of Cementitiously Stabilized Layers in the Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide

Cementitious stabilization of aggregates and soils is an effective technique to increase the stiffness of base and subbase layers. Furthermore, cementitious bases can improve the fatigue behavior of asphalt surface layers and subgrade rutting over the short and long term. However, it can lead to additional distresses such as shrinkage and fatigue in the stabilized layers. Extensive research has tested these materials experimentally and characterized them; however, very little of this research attempts to correlate the mechanical properties of the stabilized layers with their performance. The Mechanistic Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) provides a promising theoretical framework for the modeling of pavements containing cementitiously stabilized materials (CSMs). However, significant improvements are needed to bring the modeling of semirigid pavements in MEPDG to the same level as that of flexible and rigid pavements. Furthermore, the MEPDG does not model CSMs in a manner similar to those for hot-mix asphalt or portland cement concrete materials. As a result, performance gains from stabilized layers are difficult to assess using the MEPDG. The current characterization of CSMs was evaluated and issues with CSM modeling and characterization in the MEPDG were discussed. Addressing these issues will help designers quantify the benefits of stabilization for pavement service life.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

Modeling of transpiration reduction in van Genuchten-Mualem type soils

We derive an analytic expression for the matric flux potential (M) for van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) type soils which can also be written in terms of a converging infinite series. Considering the first four terms of this series, the accuracy of the approximation was verified by comparing it to values of M estimated by numerical finite difference integration. Using values of the parameters for three soils from different texture classes, the proposed four-term approximation showed an almost perfect match with the numerical solution, except for effective saturations higher than 0.9. Including more terms reduced the discrepancy but also increased the complexity of the equation. The four-term equation can be used for most applications. Cases with special interest in nearly saturated soils should include more terms from the infinite series. A transpiration reduction function for use with the VGM equations is derived by combining the derived expression for M with a root water extraction model. The shape of the resulting reduction function and its dependency on the derivative of the soil hydraulic diffusivity D with respect to the soil water content theta is discussed. Positive and negative values of dD/d theta yield concave and convex or S-shaped reduction functions, respectively. On the basis of three data sets, the hydraulic properties of virtually all soils yield concave reduction curves. Such curves based solely on soil hydraulic properties do not account for the complex interactions between shoot growth, root growth, and water availability.

Spatial Modeling of a Soil Fertility Index using Visible-Near-Infrared Spectra and Terrain Attributes

Our objective was to develop a methodology to predict soil fertility using visible near-infrared (vis-NIR) diffuse reflectance spectra and terrain attributes derived from a digital elevation model (DEM). Specifically, our aims were to: (i) assemble a minimum data set to develop a soil fertility index for sugarcane (Sarcharum officinarum L.) (SFI-SC) for biofuel production in tropical soils; (ii) construct a model to predict the SFI-SC using soil vis-NIR spectra and terrain attributes; and (iii) produce a soil fertility map for our study area and assess it by comparing it with a green vegetation index (GVI). The study area was 185 ha located in sao Paulo State, Brazil. In total, 184 soil samples were collected and analyzed for a range of soil chemical and physical properties. Their vis-NIR spectra were collected from 400 to 2500 nm. The Shuttle Radar Topographic Mission 3-arcsec (90-m resolution) DEM of the area was used to derive 17 terrain attributes. A minimum data set of soil properties was selected to develop the SFI-SC. The SFI-SC consisted of three classes: Class 1, the highly fertile soils; Class 2, the fertile soils; and Class 3, the least fertile soils. It was derived heuristically with conditionals and using expert knowledge. The index was modeled with the spectra and terrain data using cross-validated decision trees. The cross-validation of the model correctly predicted Class 1 in 75% of cases, Class 2 in 61%, and Class 3 in 65%. A fertility map was derived for the study area and compared with a map of the GVI. Our approach offers a methodology that incorporates expert knowledge to derive the SFI-SC and uses a versatile spectro-spatial methodology that may be implemented for rapid and accurate determination of soil fertility and better exploration of areas suitable for production.

QSAR Modeling of a Set of Pyrazinoate Esters as Antituberculosis Prodrugs

Tuberculosis is an infection caused mainly by Mycobacterium tuberculosis. A first-line antimycobacterial drug is pyrazinamide (PZA), which acts partially as a prodrug activated by a pyrazinamidase releasing the active agent, pyrazinoic acid (POA). As pyrazinoic acid presents some difficulty to cross the mycobacterial cell wall, and also the pyrazinamide-resistant strains do not express the pyrazinamidase, a set of pyrazinoic acid esters have been evaluated as antimycobacterial agents. In this work, a QSAR approach was applied to a set of forty-three pyrazinoates against M. tuberculosis ATCC 27294, using genetic algorithm function and partial least squares regression (WOLF 5.5 program). The independent variables selected were the Balaban index (I), calculated n-octanol/water partition coefficient (ClogP), van-der-Waals surface area, dipole moment, and stretching-energy contribution. The final QSAR model (N = 32, r(2) = 0.68, q(2) = 0.59, LOF = 0.25, and LSE = 0.19) was fully validated employing leave-N-out cross-validation and y-scrambling techniques. The test set (N = 11) presented an external prediction power of 73%. In conclusion, the QSAR model generated can be used as a valuable tool to optimize the activity of future pyrazinoic acid esters in the designing of new antituberculosis agents.

A mathematical model of HIV transmission in NSW prisons

A mathematical model was developed to estimate HIV incidence in NSW prisons. Data included: duration of imprisonment; number of inmates using each needle; lower and higher number of shared injections per IDU per week; proportion of IDUs using bleach; efficacy of bleach; HIV prevalence and probability of infection. HIV prevalence in IDUs in prison was estimated to have risen from 0.8 to 5.7% (12.2%) over 180 weeks when using lower (and higher) values for frequency of shared injections. The estimated minimum (and maximum) number of IDU inmates infected with HIV in NSW prisons was 38 (and 152) in 1993 according to the model. These figures require confirmation by seroincidence studies. (C) 1998 Published by Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling of hepatic elimination and organ distribution kinetics with the extended convection-dispersion model

The conventional convection-dispersion (also called axial dispersion) model is widely used to interrelate hepatic availability (F) and clearance (Cl) with the morphology and physiology of the liver and to predict effects such as changes in liver blood flow on F and Cl. An extended form of the convection-dispersion model has been developed to adequately describe the outflow concentration-time profiles for vascular markers at both short and long times after bolus injections into perfused livers. The model, based on flux concentration and a convolution of catheters and large vessels, assumes that solute elimination in hepatocytes follows either fast distribution into or radial diffusion in hepatocytes. The model includes a secondary vascular compartment, postulated to be interconnecting sinusoids. Analysis of the mean hepatic transit time (MTT) and normalized variance (CV2) of solutes with extraction showed that the discrepancy between the predictions of MTT and CV2 for the extended and conventional models are essentially identical irrespective of the magnitude of rate constants representing permeability, volume, and clearance parameters, providing that there is significant hepatic extraction. In conclusion, the application of a newly developed extended convection-dispersion model has shown that the unweighted conventional convection-dispersion model can be used to describe the disposition of extracted solutes and, in particular, to estimate hepatic availability and clearance in booth experimental and clinical situations.

Finite element modeling of fluid-rock interaction problems in pore-fluid saturated hydrothermal/sedimentary basins

In order to use the finite element method for solving fluid-rock interaction problems in pore-fluid saturated hydrothermal/sedimentary basins effectively and efficiently, we have presented, in this paper, the new concept and numerical algorithms to deal with the fundamental issues associated with the fluid-rock interaction problems. These fundamental issues are often overlooked by some purely numerical modelers. (1) Since the fluid-rock interaction problem involves heterogeneous chemical reactions between reactive aqueous chemical species in the pore-fluid and solid minerals in the rock masses, it is necessary to develop the new concept of the generalized concentration of a solid mineral, so that two types of reactive mass transport equations, namely, the conventional mass transport equation for the aqueous chemical species in the pore-fluid and the degenerated mass transport equation for the solid minerals in the rock mass, can be solved simultaneously in computation. (2) Since the reaction area between the pore-fluid and mineral surfaces is basically a function of the generalized concentration of the solid mineral, there is a definite need to appropriately consider the dependence of the dissolution rate of a dissolving mineral on its generalized concentration in the numerical analysis. (3) Considering the direct consequence of the porosity evolution with time in the transient analysis of fluid-rock interaction problems; we have proposed the term splitting algorithm and the concept of the equivalent source/sink terms in mass transport equations so that the problem of variable mesh Peclet number and Courant number has been successfully converted into the problem of constant mesh Peclet and Courant numbers. The numerical results from an application example have demonstrated the usefulness of the proposed concepts and the robustness of the proposed numerical algorithms in dealing with fluid-rock interaction problems in pore-fluid saturated hydrothermal/sedimentary basins. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Modeling of heat transfer in fluidized-bed coating of cylinders

A numerical model of heat transfer in fluidized-bed coating of solid cylinders is presented. By defining suitable dimensionless parameters, the governing equations and its associated initial and boundary conditions are discretized using the method of orthogonal collocation and the resulting ordinary differential equations simultaneously solved for the dimensionless coating thickness and wall temperatures. Parametric Studies showed that the dimensionless coating thickness and wall temperature depend on the relative heat capacities of the polymer powder and object, the latent heat of fusion and the size of the cylinder. Model predictions for the coating thickness and wall temperature compare reasonably well with numerical predictions and experimental coating data in the literature and with our own coating experiments using copper cylinders immersed in nylon-11 and polyethylene powders. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modeling of columnar-to-equiaxed transition in solidified Al-Si alloys

A Cellular-Automaton Finite-Volume-Method (CAFVM) algorithm has been developed, coupling with macroscopic model for heat transfer calculation and microscopic models for nucleation and growth. The solution equations have been solved to determine the time-dependent constitutional undercooling and interface retardation during solidification. The constitutional undercooling is then coupled into the CAFVM algorithm to investigate both the effects of thermal and constitutional undercooling on columnar growth and crystal selection in the columnar zone, and formation of equiaxed crystals in the bulk liquid. The model cannot only simulate microstructures of alloys but also investigates nucleation mechanisms and growth kinetics of alloys solidified with various solute concentrations and solidification morphologies.

Modeling of subcutaneous absorption kinetics of infusion solutions in the elderly using technetium

Absorption kinetics of solutes given with the subcutaneous administration of fluids is ill-defined. The gamma emitter, technitium pertechnetate, enabled estimates of absorption rate to be estimated independently using two approaches. In the first approach, the counts remaining at the site were estimated by imaging above the subcutaneous administration site, whereas in the second approach, the plasma technetium concentration-time profiles were monitored up to 8 hr after technetium administration. Boluses of technetium pertechnetate were given both intravenously and subcutaneously on separate occasions with a multiple dosing regimen using three doses on each occasion. The disposition of technetium after iv administration was best described by biexponential kinetics with a V-ss of 0.30 +/- 0.11 L/kg and a clearance of 30.0 +/- 13.1 ml/min. The subcutaneous absorption kinetics was best described as a single exponential process with a half-life of 18.16 +/- 3.97 min by image analysis and a half-life of 11.58 +/- 2.48 min using plasma technetium time data. The bioavailability of technetium by the subcutaneous route was estimated to be 0.96 +/- 0.12. The absorption half-life showed no consistent change with the duration of the subcutaneous infusion. The amount remaining at the absorption site with time was similar when analyzed using image analysis, and plasma concentrations assuming multiexponential disposition kinetics and a first-order absorption process. Profiles of fraction remaining at the absorption sire generated by deconvolution analysis, image analysis, and assumption of a constant first-order absorption process were similar. Slowing of absorption from the subcutaneous administration site is apparent after the last bolus dose in three of the subjects and can De associated with the stopping of the infusion. In a fourth subject, the retention of technetium at the subcutaneous site is more consistent with accumulation of technetium near the absorption site as a result of systemic recirculation.

Diffusion modeling of percutaneous absorption kinetics: 2. Finite vehicle volume and solvent deposited solids

The diffusion model for percutaneous absorption is developed for the specific case of delivery to the skin being limited by the application of a finite amount of solute. Two cases are considered; in the first, there is an application of a finite donor (vehicle) volume, and in the second, there are solvent-deposited solids and a thin vehicle with a high partition coefficient. In both cases, the potential effect of an interfacial resistance at the stratum corneum surface is also considered. As in the previous paper, which was concerned with the application of a constant donor concentration, clearance limitations due to the viable eqidermis, the in vitro sampling rate, or perfusion rate in vivo are included. Numerical inversion of the Laplace domain solutions was used for simulations of solute flux and cumulative amount absorbed and to model specific examples of percutaneous absorption of solvent-deposited solids. It was concluded that numerical inversions of the Laplace domain solutions for a diffusion model of the percutaneous absorption, using standard scientific software (such as SCIENTIST, MicroMath Scientific software) on modern personal computers, is a practical alternative to computation of infinite series solutions. Limits of the Laplace domain solutions were used to define the moments of the flux-time profiles for finite donor volumes and the slope of the terminal log flux-time profile. The mean transit time could be related to the diffusion time through stratum corneum, viable epidermal, and donor diffusion layer resistances and clearance from the receptor phase. Approximate expressions for the time to reach maximum flux (peak time) and maximum flux were also derived. The model was then validated using reported amount-time and flux-time profiles for finite doses applied to the skin. It was concluded that for very small donor phase volume or for very large stratum corneum-vehicle partitioning coefficients (e.g., for solvent deposited solids), the flux and amount of solute absorbed are affected by receptor conditions to a lesser extent than is obvious for a constant donor constant donor concentrations. (C) 2001 Wiley-Liss, Inc. and the American Pharmaceutical Association J Pharm Sci 90:504-520, 2001.