A pseudo-marginal sequential Monte Carlo algorithm for random effects models in Bayesian sequential design

A computationally efficient sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is proposed for the sequential design of experiments for the collection of block data described by mixed effects models. The difficulty in applying a sequential Monte Carlo algorithm in such settings is the need to evaluate the observed data likelihood, which is typically intractable for all but linear Gaussian models. To overcome this difficulty, we propose to unbiasedly estimate the likelihood, and perform inference and make decisions based on an exact-approximate algorithm. Two estimates are proposed: using Quasi Monte Carlo methods and using the Laplace approximation with importance sampling. Both of these approaches can be computationally expensive, so we propose exploiting parallel computational architectures to ensure designs can be derived in a timely manner. We also extend our approach to allow for model uncertainty. This research is motivated by important pharmacological studies related to the treatment of critically ill patients.

Separating resource rents from intra-marginal rents in fisheries economics survey data

Economic surveys of fisheries are undertaken in several countries as a means of assessing the economic performance of their fisheries. The level of economic profits accruing in the fishery can be estimated from the average economic profits of the boats surveyed. Economic profits consist of two components—resource rent and intra-marginal rent. From a fisheries management perspective, the key indicator of performance is the level of resource rent being generated in the fishery. Consequently, these different components need to be separated out. In this paper, a means of separating out the rent components is identified for a heterogeneous fishery. This is applied to the multi-purpose fleet operating in the English Channel. The paper demonstrates that failing to separate out these two components may result in a misrepresentation of the economic performance of the fishery.

Impacts of introduced aquaculture species on markets for native marine aquaculture products : the case of edible oysters in Australia

Economic competition between introduced and native aquaculture species is of interest for industry stakeholders since increased production can affect price formation if both aquaculture species are part of the same market or even substitutes. In this study, we focus on the Australian edible oyster industry, which is dominated by two major species—the native Sydney rock oyster (grown mainly in Queensland and New South Wales) and the non-native Pacific oyster (grown mainly in South Australia and Tasmania). We examine the integration of the Australian oyster market to determine if there exists a single or several markets. Short- and long-run own, cross-price and income flexibilities of demand are estimated for both species using an inverse demand system of equations. The results suggest that the markets for the two species are integrated. We found evidence that the development of the Pacific oyster industry has had an adverse impact on Sydney rock oyster prices. However, our results show that both species are not perfect substitutes. Demand for Sydney rock oysters is relatively inelastic in the long run, yet no long-run relationships can be identified for Pacific oysters, reflecting the developing nature of this sector.

Bikeshare: Barriers, facilitators and impacts on car use

This thesis examined the factors contributing to bikeshare participation in Brisbane and Melbourne, and opportunities for increasing bikeshare usage. The degree to which bikeshare impacts on car use was also quantified. The findings of this program of research have implications for existing as well as planned bikeshare programs, both in Australia and abroad.

Built environment impacts on walking for transport in Brisbane, Australia

This study examines the association between urban form and walking for transport in Brisbane, Australia based on both panel and cross-sectional data. Cross-sectional data are used to determine whether urban form was associated with walking for transport in 2011. Panel data are used to evaluate whether changes in the built environment altered walking behaviour between 2009 and 2011. Results from the cross-sectional data suggest that individuals are significantly more likely to be walkers if they live in an area with a well-connected street network and an accessible train station. The longitudinal analysis confirms these relationships; there also was however, a significant impact of travel attitudes and perceptions on walking behaviour. The findings suggest that the built environment continues to be an important factor to encourage walking; however, interventions are also required to change social norms in order to increase the receptiveness for and participation in walking.

Social Justice Impacts of the Resources Boom

Until the 1970s mining leases were issued by state governments subject to conditions that companies build or substantially finance local community infrastructure, including housing, streets, transport, schools, hospitals and recreation facilities. Townships and communities went hand in hand with mining development. However, in the past thirty years mining companies have moved progressively to an expeditionary strategy for natural resources extraction - operating a continuous production cycle of 12 hour shifts - increasingly reliant on non-resident, fly-in, fly-out or drive-in, drive-out (FIFO/DIDO) workers who typically work block rosters, reside in work camps adjacent to existing communities and travel large distances from their homes. This paper presents the key findings of our survey into the social impacts of this kind of mining development in Qld. Based on the results we argue that the social license to develop new mining projects is strong for projects requiring a 25% or less non-resident workforce, diminishes significantly thereafter and is very weak for projects planning to recruit a non-resident workforce in excess of 75%. This finding is significant because there are at least 67 new mining projects undergoing social impact assessment in Queensland, and many it appears are planning to hire significant proportions of non-resident workers. The paper considers the policy implications of this growing social justice issue concluding there is a clear need for national leadership in formulating a national policy framework for guiding socially responsible and sustainable mining development into the next millennium.

The visual and functional impacts of astigmatism and its clinical management

Purpose: To provide a comprehensive overview of research examining the impact of astigmatism on clinical and functional measures of vision, the short and longer term adaptations to astigmatism that occur in the visual system, and the currently available clinical options for the management of patients with astigmatism. Recent findings: The presence of astigmatism can lead to substantial reductions in visual performance in a variety of clinical vision measures and functional visual tasks. Recent evidence demonstrates that astigmatic blur results in short-term adaptations in the visual system that appear to reduce the perceived impact of astigmatism on vision. In the longer term, uncorrected astigmatism in childhood can also significantly impact on visual development, resulting in amblyopia. Astigmatism is also associated with the development of spherical refractive errors. Although the clinical correction of small magnitudes of astigmatism is relatively straightforward, the precise, reliable correction of astigmatism (particularly high astigmatism) can be challenging. A wide variety of refractive corrections are now available for the patient with astigmatism, including spectacle, contact lens and surgical options. Conclusion: Astigmatism is one of the most common refractive errors managed in clinical ophthalmic practice. The significant visual and functional impacts of astigmatism emphasise the importance of its reliable clinical management. With continued improvements in ocular measurement techniques and developments in a range of different refractive correction technologies, the future promises the potential for more precise and comprehensive correction options for astigmatic patients.

Telecommunications Impacts on the Structure and Organisation of Male Sex Work

(Sub)Urban Sexscapes brings together a collection of theoretically-informed and empirically rich case studies highlighting the contemporary and historical geographies and regulation of the commercial sex industry. Contributions in this edited volume examine the spatial and regulatory contours of the sex industry from a range of disciplinary perspectives—urban planning, urban geography, urban sociology, and, cultural and media studies—and geographical contexts—Australia, the UK, US and North Africa. In overall terms, (Sub)urban Sexscapes highlights the mainstreaming of commercial sex premises—sex shops, brothels, strip clubs and queer spaces—and products—sex toys, erotic literature and pornography—now being commonplace in night time economy spaces, the high street, suburban shopping centres and the home. In addition, the aesthetics of commercial and alternative sexual practices—BDSM and pornography—permeate the (sub)urban landscape via billboards, newspapers and magazines, television, music videos and the Internet. The role of sex, sexuality and commercialized sex, in contributing to the general character of our cities cannot be ignored. In short, there is a need for policy-makers to be realistic about the historical, contemporary and future presence of the sex industry. Ultimately, the regulation of the sex industry should be informed by evidence as opposed to moral panics.

Multi-agent systems for modeling high penetration photovoltaic system impacts in distribution networks

This paper reviews the use of multi-agent systems to model the impacts of high levels of photovoltaic (PV) system penetration in distribution networks and presents some preliminary data obtained from the Perth Solar City high penetration PV trial. The Perth Solar City trial consists of a low voltage distribution feeder supplying 75 customers where 29 consumers have roof top photovoltaic systems. Data is collected from smart meters at each consumer premises, from data loggers at the transformer low voltage (LV) side and from a nearby distribution network SCADA measurement point on the high voltage side (HV) side of the transformer. The data will be used to progressively develop MAS models.

Perturbed Lignification Impacts Tree Growth in Hybrid Poplar-A Function of Sink Strength, Vascular Integrity, and Photosynthetic Assimilation

The effects of reductions in cell wall lignin content, manifested by RNA interference suppression of coumaroyl 3'-hydroxylase, on plant growth, water transport, gas exchange, and photosynthesis were evaluated in hybrid poplar trees (Populus alba 3 grandidentata). The growth characteristics of the reduced lignin trees were significantly impaired, resulting in smaller stems and reduced root biomass when compared to wild-type trees, as well as altered leaf morphology and architecture. The severe inhibition of cell wall lignification produced trees with a collapsed xylem phenotype, resulting in compromised vascular integrity, and displayed reduced hydraulic conductivity and a greater susceptibility to wall failure and cavitation. In the reduced lignin trees, photosynthetic carbon assimilation and stomatal conductance were also greatly reduced, however, shoot xylem pressure potential and carbon isotope discrimination were higher and water-use efficiency was lower, inconsistent with water stress. Reductions in assimilation rate could not be ascribed to increased stomatal limitation. Starch and soluble sugars analysis of leaves revealed that photosynthate was accumulating to high levels, suggesting that the trees with substantially reduced cell wall lignin were not carbon limited and that reductions in sink strength were, instead, limiting photosynthesis.

Protecting World Heritage sites from the adverse impacts of climate change : obligations for States Parties to the World Heritage Convention

Through its mandate to protect and preserve places of ‘outstanding universal value’, the World Heritage Convention provides an unlikely yet effective tool in global efforts to mitigate climate change. The practical efficacy of the Strategy to Assist States Parties to Implement Appropriate Management Responses (‘the Strategy’), which represents the World Heritage Committee’s primary response to the threats posed by climate change to World Heritage sites, is undermined by its weak stance on mitigation. This paper argues that the World Heritage Convention imposes stronger obligations on States Parties than those contained in the Strategy, including a duty on States Parties to commit to ‘deep cuts’ in greenhouse gas emissions. In order to ensure the continuing success of the World Heritage Convention States Parties must engage in extensive mitigation strategies without delay.