Análise, imputação de dados e interfaces computacionais em estudos de séries temporais epidemiológicas

efeitos são frequentemente observados na morbidade e mortalidade por doenças respiratórias e cardiovasculares, câncer de pulmão, diminuição da função respiratória, absenteísmo escolar e problemas relacionados com a gravidez. Estudos também sugerem que os grupos mais suscetíveis são as crianças e os idosos. Esta tese apresenta estudos sobre o efeito da poluição do ar na saúde na saúde na cidade do Rio de Janeiro e aborda aspectos metodológicos sobre a análise de dados e imputação de dados faltantes em séries temporais epidemiológicas. A análise de séries temporais foi usada para estimar o efeito da poluição do ar na mortalidade de pessoas idosas por câncer de pulmão com dados dos anos 2000 e 2001. Este estudo teve como objetivo avaliar se a poluição do ar está associada com antecipação de óbitos de pessoas que já fazem parte de uma população de risco. Outro estudo foi realizado para avaliar o efeito da poluição do ar no baixo peso ao nascer de nascimentos a termo. O desenho deste estudo foi o de corte transversal usando os dados disponíveis no ano de 2002. Em ambos os estudos foram estimados efeitos moderados da poluição do ar. Aspectos metodológicos dos estudos epidemiológicos da poluição do ar na saúde também são abordados na tese. Um método para imputação de dados faltantes é proposto e implementado numa biblioteca para o aplicativo R. A metodologia de imputação é avaliada e comparada com outros métodos frequentemente usados para imputação de séries temporais de concentrações de poluentes atmosféricos por meio de técnicas de simulação. O método proposto apresentou desempenho superior aos tradicionalmente utilizados. Também é realizada uma breve revisão da metodologia usada nos estudos de séries temporais sobre os efeitos da poluição do ar na saúde. Os tópicos abordados na revisão estão implementados numa biblioteca para a análise de dados de séries temporais epidemiológicas no aplicativo estatístico R. O uso da biblioteca é exemplificado com dados de internações hospitalares de crianças por doenças respiratórias no Rio de Janeiro. Os estudos de cunho metodológico foram desenvolvidos no âmbito do estudo multicêntrico para avaliação dos efeitos da poluição do ar na América Latina o Projeto ESCALA.

Consumo de álcool e exposição ao HIV entre universitários: associação dos conhecimentos sobre HIV e práticas sexuais

O objetivo deste estudo é discutir a associação entre padrão de consumo de álcool e dimensões de risco à exposição ao HIV, desdobradas em conhecimento sobre HIV e práticas sexuais entre universitários. Trata-se de uma pesquisa transversal com abordagem quantitativa, realizada com 416 universitários de 14 cursos distintos. Os dados foram coletados através de dois instrumentos e tratados através de estatística descritiva com o software SPSS 21.0. A pesquisa foi autorizada pelo Comitê de Ética em Pesquisa da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, sob n 003.3.2012. A população de estudo é predominantemente do sexo masculino (59,6%), com faixa etária entre 19 a 22 anos (54,3%), de cor branca (57,5%), sem companheiros (69,2%) ou filhos (92,3%) e com maior percentual de católicos (31,3%) e daqueles que não possuem religião (33,7%). Destaca-se, ainda, que são possuidores de computador ou eletrônicos portáteis (98,8%) com fácil acesso à internet (96,8%). Os principais achados apontam que a maioria faz uso de álcool (60%), com a proporção de 7 homens para cada 3 mulheres. Relacionado ao AUDIT, foi identificado predomínio das zonas I (abstinência ou baixo risco-73,8%) e II (uso nocivo-20,4%). Sobre as relações sexuais, a maioria afirmou ter experiência sexual (69,5%), com idade da primeira relação entre 16 e 18 anos (54%), no entanto, mais homens (54,3%) afirmaram manter relações sexuais após o consumo de álcool do que mulheres (45,7%). Apesar do conhecimento sobre HIV/aids e álcool ser considerado como fator protetor pela literatura vigente, constatou-se que não há associação deste conhecimento com a prática sexual mais segura. Independente do padrão de consumo de bebidas alcoólicas, os universitários apresentam o mesmo tipo de prática sexual, muitas vezes se expondo à infecção ao HIV e outras doenças sexualmente transmissíveis. Dentre os dados analisados, um dos motivos de exposição ao HIV/Aids são as relações sexuais após a ingestão de bebida alcoólicas e o não uso de preservativos nestas situações. O consumo exagerado de bebidas alcoólicas está ligado ao sexo masculino e este grupo apresenta práticas sexuais de maior risco. Sugere-se que novos estudos possam analisar a relação de causa e efeito para verificar quais fatores podem influenciar de fato a exposição ao HIV de estudantes usuários de álcool. Estas informações são relevantes para conhecermos a atual demanda desse grupo e focar nas reais necessidades que são imperiosas para a prevenção dos futuros danos nocivos à saúde individual e coletiva. Torna-se necessário compreender qual é a demanda dos jovens em se expor a diversos riscos à saúde adotando práticas não seguras e, principalmente, o que de fato modula estas condutas.

In search of climate effects on Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) stock off the U.S. Atlantic coast with Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic models

Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) production dynamics along the U.S. Atlantic coast are regulated by fishing and winter water temperature. Stakeholders for this resource have recommended investigating the effects of climate covariates in assessment models. This study used state-space biomass dynamic models without (model 1) and with (model 2) the minimum winter estuarine temperature (MWET) to examine MWET effects on Atlantic Croaker population dynamics during 1972–2008. In model 2, MWET was introduced into the intrinsic rate of population increase (r). For both models, a prior probability distribution (prior) was constructed for r or a scaling parameter (r0); imputs were the fishery removals, and fall biomass indices developed by using data from the Multispecies Bottom Trawl Survey of the Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, and the Coastal Trawl Survey of the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program. Model sensitivity runs incorporated a uniform (0.01,1.5) prior for r or r0 and bycatch data from the shrimp-trawl fishery. All model variants produced similar results and therefore supported the conclusion of low risk of overfishing for the Atlantic Croaker stock in the 2000s. However, the data statistically supported only model 1 and its configuration that included the shrimp-trawl fishery bycatch. The process errors of these models showed slightly positive and significant correlations with MWET, indicating that warmer winters would enhance Atlantic Croaker biomass production. Inconclusive, somewhat conflicting results indicate that biomass dynamic models should not integrate MWET, pending, perhaps, accumulation of longer time series of the variables controlling the production dynamics of Atlantic Croaker, preferably including winter-induced estimates of Atlantic Croaker kills.

Microsatellite diversity and population genetic structure of redfin culter (Culter erythropterus) in fragmented lakes of the Yangtze River

Redfin culter (Culter erythropterus) is a small lethic freshwater fish and widely distributed in the adjacent lakes of the Yangtze River of China. Five microsatellite loci were applied to investigate the genetic variation and population structure of redfin culter from seven lakes in the middle-and-lower reaches of the Yangtze River. The gene diversity was high among the populations (H > 0.9), the average number of alleles among seven populations was low with a range from 2.00 to 3.87. The mean observed (H-O) and expected (H-E) heterozygosity ranged from 0.111 to 0.419 and from 0.162 to 0.750, respectively. Significant deviations from Hardy-Weinberg Equilibrium expectation were found in 50% of the total locus-population combination tests in which heterozygote deficits were apparent. The analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) indicated that the percentage of variance among and within these populations were 6.18 and 93.82, respectively. The Fst values (0.062, P < 0.001) among studied populations indicated that there were significant genetic differentiations among redfin culture populations from the scattered lakes with different connections to the Yangtze River. These results are useful for the evaluation and conservation of small freshwater fishes. The factors that may be involved in low intra-population polymorphism and the pattern of the population genetic structure of redfin culter from the Yangtze River were discussed.

Effects of effective population size on the F-2 growth and survival of bay scallop Argopecten irradians irradians (Lamarck)

In 2002, six cohorts of broodstock bay scallop Argopecten irradians irradians (Ne=1, 2, 10, 30, 50 and control) were randomly chosen from a population of bay scallop to produce offspring. After one year rearing, with the progeny matured, the similar experiment was done to produce the F-2 generation. To determine the magnitude of Ne effects, the growth and survival rates in larvae and adult of six F2 groups were compared. Results showed that inbreeding depression existed not only in the Ne=1 group but also in the Ne=2 group. The growth and survival rates of the two groups were significantly lower than those of the other groups (Ne=10, 30, 50, control), and there were no significant differences among the latter (P>0.05). At the same time, the amount of depression in the Ne=1 group was significantly higher than that of the Ne=2 group (P<0.05). These results indicated that the low effective population size (Ne), which increases the possibility of inbreeding, could lead to some harmful effects on the offspring. So it is essential to maintain a high level of Ne in commercial seed production. Furthermore, as the high fecundity of bay scallop might lead to increased inbreeding, selecting broodstock from different growout sites is recommended.

Genetic diversity and historical population structure of Schizopygopsis pylzovi (Teleostei : Cyprinidae) in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

1. Complete sequences of 1140 base pair of the cytochrome b gene from 133 specimens were obtained from nine localities including the inflow drainage system, isolated lakes and outflow drainage system in Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau to assess genetic diversity and to infer population histories of the freshwater fish Schizopygopsis pylzovi.2. Nucleotide diversities (pi) were moderate (0.0024-0.0045) in populations from the outflow drainage system and Tuosuo Lake, but low (0.0018-0.0021) in populations from Qiadam Basin. It is probable that the low intra-population variability is related with the paleoenvironmental fluctuation in Qiadam Basin, suggesting that the populations from Qiadam Basin have experienced severe bottleneck events in history.3. Phylogenetic tree topologies indicate that the individuals from different populations did not form reciprocal monophyly, but the populations from the adjacent drainages cluster geographically. Most population pairwise F-ST tests were significant, with non-significant pairwise tests between Tuosu Lake and Tuosuo Lake in the north-west of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) indicates that the significant genetic variation was explained at the levels of catchments within and among, not among specific boundaries or inflow and outflow drainage systems.4. The nested clade phylogeographical analysis indicates that historical processes are very important in the observed geographical structuring of S. pylzovi, and the contemporary population structure and differentiation of S. pylzovi may be consistent with the historical tectonic events occurred in the course of uplifts of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. Fluctuations of the ecogeographical environment and major hydrographic formation might have promoted contiguous range expansion of freshwater fish populations, whereas the geological barriers among drainages have resulted in the fragmentation of population and restricted the gene flow among populations.5. The significantly large negative F-s-value (-24.91, P < 0.01) of Fu's F-s-test and the unimodal mismatch distribution indicate that the species S. pylzovi underwent a sudden population expansion after the historical tectonic event of the Gonghe Movement.6. The results of this study indicate that each population from the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau should be managed and conserved separately and that efforts should be directed towards preserving the genetic integrity of each group.

Consumos de bebidas alcoólicas e falsos conceitos - questões de género numa população que recorre aos serviços da Unidade de Cuidados de Saúde Personalizados em Peso da Régua

Dissertação apresentada à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para a obtenção do grau de Mestre em Psicologia, ramo de Psicologia Clínica e da Saúde

The cumulative effect of core lifestyle behaviours on the prevalence of hypertension and dyslipidemia

Background: Most cardiovascular disease (CVD) occurs in the presence of traditional risk factors, including hypertension and dyslipidemia, and these in turn are influenced by behavioural factors such as diet and lifestyle. Previous research has identified a group at low risk of CVD based on a cluster of inter-related factors: body mass index (BMI) < 25 Kg/m2, moderate exercise, alcohol intake, non-smoking and a favourable dietary pattern. The objective of this study was to determine whether these factors are associated with a reduced prevalence of hypertension and dyslipidemia in an Irish adult population. Methods: The study was a cross-sectional survey of 1018 men and women sampled from 17 general practices. Participants completed health, lifestyle and food frequency questionnaires and provided fasting blood samples for analysis of glucose and insulin. We defined a low risk group based on the following protective factors: BMI <25 kg/m2; waist-hip ratio (WHR) <0.85 for women and <0.90 for men; never smoking status; participants with medium to high levels of physical activity; light alcohol consumption (3.5–7 units of alcohol/week) and a "prudent" diet. Dietary patterns were assessed by cluster analysis. Results: We found strong significant inverse associations between the number of protective factors and systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure and dyslipidemia. The prevalence odds ratio of hypertension in persons with 1, 2, 3, ≥ 4 protective factors relative to those with none, were 1.0, 0.76, 0.68 and 0.34 (trend p < 0.01). The prevalence odds ratio of dyslipidemia in persons with 1, 2, 3, ≥ 4 protective factors relative to those with none were 0.83, 0.98, 0.49 and 0.24 (trend p = 0.001). Conclusion: Our findings of a strong inverse association between low risk behaviours and two of the traditional risk factors for CVD highlight the importance of 'the causes of the causes' and the potential for behaviour modification in CVD prevention at a population level.

Spatial attentional bias as a marker of genetic risk, symptom severity, and stimulant response in ADHD

Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a heritable childhood onset disorder that is marked by variability at multiple levels including clinical presentation, cognitive profile, and response to stimulant medications. It has been suggested that this variability may reflect etiological differences, particularly, at the level of underlying genetics. This study examined whether an attentional phenotype-spatial attentional bias could serve as a marker of symptom severity, genetic risk, and stimulant response in ADHD. A total of 96 children and adolescents with ADHD were assessed on the Landmark Task, which is a sensitive measure of spatial attentional bias. All children were genotyped for polymorphisms (30 untranslated (UTR) and intron 8 variable number of tandem repeats (VNTRs)) of the dopamine transporter gene (DAT1). Spatial attentional bias correlated with ADHD symptom levels and varied according to DAT1 genotype. Children who were homozygous for the 10-repeat allele of the DAT1 30-UTR VNTR displayed a rightward attentional bias and had higher symptom levels compared to those with the low-risk genotype. A total of 26 of these children who were medication naive performed the Landmark Task at baseline and then again after 6 weeks of stimulant medication. Left-sided inattention (rightward bias) at baseline was associated with an enhanced response to stimulants at 6 weeks. Moreover, changes in spatial bias with stimulant medications, varied as a function of DAT1 genotype. This study suggests an attentional phenotype that relates to symptom severity and genetic risk for ADHD, and may have utility in predicting stimulant response in ADHD.

The back 2 activity trial: education and advice versus education and advice plus a structured walking programme for chronic low back pain.:education and advice versus education and advice plus a structured walking programme for chronic low back pain

BACKGROUND: Current evidence supports the use of exercise-based treatment for chronic low back pain that encourages the patient to assume an active role in their recovery. Walking has been shown it to be an acceptable type of exercise with a low risk of injury. However, it is not known whether structured physical activity programmes are any more effective than giving advice to remain active.

METHODS/DESIGN: The proposed study will test the feasibility of using a pedometer-driven walking programme, as an adjunct to a standard education and advice session in participants with chronic low back pain. Fifty adult participants will be recruited via a number of different sources. Baseline outcome measures including self reported function; objective physical activity levels; fear-avoidance beliefs and health-related quality of life will be recorded. Eligible participants will be randomly allocated under strict, double blind conditions to one of two treatments groups. Participants in group A will receive a single education and advice session with a physiotherapist based on the content of the 'Back Book'. Participants in group B will receive the same education and advice session. In addition, they will also receive a graded pedometer-driven walking programme prescribed by the physiotherapist. Follow up outcomes will be recorded by the same researcher, who will remain blinded to group allocation, at eight weeks and six months post randomisation. A qualitative exploration of participants' perception of walking will also be examined by use of focus groups at the end of the intervention. As a feasibility study, treatment effects will be represented by point estimates and confidence intervals. The assessment of participant satisfaction will be tabulated, as will adherence levels and any recorded difficulties or adverse events experienced by the participants or therapists. This information will be used to modify the planned interventions to be used in a larger randomised controlled trial.

DISCUSSION: This paper describes the rationale and design of a study which will test the feasibility of using a structured, pedometer-driven walking programme in participants with chronic low back pain.

TRIAL REGISTRATION: [ISRCTN67030896].

Automated versus non-automated weaning for reducing the duration of mechanical ventilation for critically ill adults and children (Review)

Abstract
Background: Automated closed loop systems may improve adaptation of the mechanical support to a patient's ventilatory needs and
facilitate systematic and early recognition of their ability to breathe spontaneously and the potential for discontinuation of
ventilation.

Objectives: To compare the duration of weaning from mechanical ventilation for critically ill ventilated adults and children when managed
with automated closed loop systems versus non-automated strategies. Secondary objectives were to determine differences
in duration of ventilation, intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital length of stay (LOS), mortality, and adverse events.

Search methods: We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library 2011, Issue 2); MEDLINE (OvidSP) (1948 to August 2011); EMBASE (OvidSP) (1980 to August 2011); CINAHL (EBSCOhost) (1982 to August 2011); and the Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS). In addition we received and reviewed auto-alerts for our search strategy in MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL up to August 2012. Relevant published reviews were sought using the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and the Health Technology Assessment Database (HTA Database). We also searched the Web of Science Proceedings; conference proceedings; trial registration websites; and reference lists of relevant articles.

Selection criteria: We included randomized controlled trials comparing automated closed loop ventilator applications to non-automated weaning
strategies including non-protocolized usual care and protocolized weaning in patients over four weeks of age receiving invasive mechanical ventilation in an intensive care unit (ICU).

Data collection and analysis: Two authors independently extracted study data and assessed risk of bias. We combined data into forest plots using random-effects modelling. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were conducted according to a priori criteria.

Main results: Pooled data from 15 eligible trials (14 adult, one paediatric) totalling 1173 participants (1143 adults, 30 children) indicated that automated closed loop systems reduced the geometric mean duration of weaning by 32% (95% CI 19% to 46%, P =0.002), however heterogeneity was substantial (I2 = 89%, P < 0.00001). Reduced weaning duration was found with mixed or
medical ICU populations (43%, 95% CI 8% to 65%, P = 0.02) and Smartcare/PS™ (31%, 95% CI 7% to 49%, P = 0.02) but not in surgical populations or using other systems. Automated closed loop systems reduced the duration of ventilation (17%, 95% CI 8% to 26%) and ICU length of stay (LOS) (11%, 95% CI 0% to 21%). There was no difference in mortality rates or hospital LOS. Overall the quality of evidence was high with the majority of trials rated as low risk.

Authors' conclusions: Automated closed loop systems may result in reduced duration of weaning, ventilation, and ICU stay. Reductions are more
likely to occur in mixed or medical ICU populations. Due to the lack of, or limited, evidence on automated systems other than Smartcare/PS™ and Adaptive Support Ventilation no conclusions can be drawn regarding their influence on these outcomes. Due to substantial heterogeneity in trials there is a need for an adequately powered, high quality, multi-centre randomized
controlled trial in adults that excludes 'simple to wean' patients. There is a pressing need for further technological development and research in the paediatric population.

The role of angiogenic and antiangiogenic factors in the second trimester in the prediction of preeclampsia in pregnant women with type 1 diabetes

OBJECTIVE To assess the association between circulating angiogenic and antiangiogenic factors in the second trimester and risk of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS Maternal plasma concentrations of placental growth factor (PlGF), soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt-1), and soluble endoglin (sEng) were available at 26 weeks of gestation in 540 women with type 1 diabetes enrolled in the Diabetes and Preeclampsia Intervention Trial.

RESULTS Preeclampsia developed in 17% of pregnancies (n = 94). At 26 weeks of gestation, women in whom preeclampsia developed later had significantly lower PlGF (median [interquartile range]: 231 pg/mL [120–423] vs. 365 pg/mL [237–582]; P < 0.001), higher sFlt-1 (1,522 pg/mL [1,108–3,393] vs. 1,193 pg/mL [844–1,630] P < 0.001), and higher sEng (6.2 ng/mL [4.9–7.9] vs. 5.1 ng/mL[(4.3–6.2]; P < 0.001) compared with women who did not have preeclampsia. In addition, the ratio of PlGF to sEng was significantly lower (40 [17–71] vs. 71 [44–114]; P < 0.001) and the ratio of sFlt-1 to PlGF was significantly higher (6.3 [3.4–15.7] vs. 3.1 [1.8–5.8]; P < 0.001) in women who later developed preeclampsia. The addition of the ratio of PlGF to sEng or the ratio of sFlt-1 to PlGF to a logistic model containing established risk factors (area under the curve [AUC], 0.813) significantly improved the predictive value (AUC, 0.850 and 0.846, respectively; P < 0.01) and significantly improved reclassification according to the integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI) (IDI scores 0.086 and 0.065, respectively; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS These data suggest that angiogenic and antiangiogenic factors measured during the second trimester are predictive of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes. The addition of the ratio of PlGF to sEng or the ratio of sFlt-1 to PlGF to established clinical risk factors significantly improves the prediction of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes.

Preeclampsia is characterized by the development of hypertension and new-onset proteinuria during the second half of pregnancy (1,2), leading to increased maternal morbidity and mortality (3). Women with type 1 diabetes are at increased risk for development of preeclampsia during pregnancy, with rates being two-times to four-times higher than that of the background maternity population (4,5). Small advances have come from preventive measures, such as low-dose aspirin in women at high risk (6); however, delivery remains the only effective intervention, and preeclampsia is responsible for up to 15% of preterm births and a consequent increase in infant mortality and morbidity (7).

Although the etiology of preeclampsia remains unclear, abnormal placental vascular remodeling and placental ischemia, together with maternal endothelial dysfunction, hemodynamic changes, and renal pathology, contribute to its pathogenesis (8). In addition, over the past decade accumulating evidence has suggested that an imbalance between angiogenic factors, such as placental growth factor (PlGF), and antiangiogenic factors, such as soluble fms-like tyrosine kinase 1 (sFlt-1) and soluble endoglin (sEng), plays a key role in the pathogenesis of preeclampsia (8,9). In women at low risk (10–13) and women at high risk (14,15), concentrations of angiogenic and antiangiogenic factors are significantly different between women who later develop preeclampsia (lower PlGF, higher sFlt-1, and higher sEng levels) compared with women who do not.

Few studies have specifically focused on circulating angiogenic factors and risk of preeclampsia in women with diabetes, and the results have been conflicting. In a small study, higher sFlt-1 and lower PlGF were reported at the time of delivery in women with diabetes who developed preeclampsia (16). In a longitudinal prospective cohort of pregnant women with diabetes, Yu et al. (17) reported increased sFlt-1 and reduced PlGF in the early third trimester as potential predictors of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes, but they did not show any difference in sEng levels in women with preeclampsia compared with women without preeclampsia. By contrast, Powers et al. (18) reported only increased sEng in the second trimester in women with pregestational diabetes who developed preeclampsia.

The aim of this study, which was significantly larger than the previous studies highlighted, was to assess the association between circulating angiogenic (PlGF) and antiangiogenic (sFlt-1 and sEng) factors and the risk of preeclampsia in women with type 1 diabetes. A further aim was to evaluate the added predictive ability and clinical usefulness of angiogenic factors and established risk factors for preeclampsia risk prediction in women with type 1 diabetes.

Automated versus non-automated weaning for reducing the duration of mechanical ventilation in critically ill adults & children (Review)

Background Automated closed loop systems may improve adaptation of mechanical support for a patient's ventilatory needs and facilitate systematic and early recognition of their ability to breathe spontaneously and the potential for discontinuation of ventilation. This review was originally published in 2013 with an update published in 2014. Objectives The primary objective for this review was to compare the total duration of weaning from mechanical ventilation, defined as the time from study randomization to successful extubation (as defined by study authors), for critically ill ventilated patients managed with an automated weaning system versus no automated weaning system (usual care). Secondary objectives for this review were to determine differences in the duration of ventilation, intensive care unit (ICU) and hospital lengths of stay (LOS), mortality, and adverse events related to early or delayed extubation with the use of automated weaning systems compared to weaning in the absence of an automated weaning system. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (The Cochrane Library 2013, Issue 8); MEDLINE (OvidSP) (1948 to September 2013); EMBASE (OvidSP) (1980 to September 2013); CINAHL (EBSCOhost) (1982 to September 2013); and the Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS). Relevant published reviews were sought using the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) and the Health Technology Assessment Database (HTA Database). We also searched the Web of Science Proceedings; conference proceedings; trial registration websites; and reference lists of relevant articles. The original search was run in August 2011, with database auto-alerts up to August 2012. Selection criteria We included randomized controlled trials comparing automated closed loop ventilator applications to non-automated weaning strategies including non-protocolized usual care and protocolized weaning in patients over four weeks of age receiving invasive mechanical ventilation in an ICU. Data collection and analysis Two authors independently extracted study data and assessed risk of bias. We combined data in forest plots using random-effects modelling. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were conducted according to a priori criteria. Main results We included 21 trials (19 adult, two paediatric) totaling 1676 participants (1628 adults, 48 children) in this updated review. Pooled data from 16 eligible trials reporting weaning duration indicated that automated closed loop systems reduced the geometric mean duration of weaning by 30% (95% confidence interval (CI) 13% to 45%), however heterogeneity was substantial (I2 = 87%, P < 0.00001). Reduced weaning duration was found with mixed or medical ICU populations (42%, 95% CI 10% to 63%) and Smartcare/PS™ (28%, 95% CI 7% to 49%) but not in surgical populations or using other systems. Automated closed loop systems reduced the duration of ventilation (10%, 95% CI 3% to 16%) and ICU LOS (8%, 95% CI 0% to 15%). There was no strong evidence of an effect on mortality rates, hospital LOS, reintubation rates, self-extubation and use of non-invasive ventilation following extubation. Prolonged mechanical ventilation > 21 days and tracheostomy were reduced in favour of automated systems (relative risk (RR) 0.51, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.95 and RR 0.67, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.90 respectively). Overall the quality of the evidence was high with the majority of trials rated as low risk. Authors' conclusions Automated closed loop systems may result in reduced duration of weaning, ventilation and ICU stay. Reductions are more likely to occur in mixed or medical ICU populations. Due to the lack of, or limited, evidence on automated systems other than Smartcare/PS™ and Adaptive Support Ventilation no conclusions can be drawn regarding their influence on these outcomes. Due to substantial heterogeneity in trials there is a need for an adequately powered, high quality, multi-centre randomized controlled trial in adults that excludes 'simple to wean' patients. There is a pressing need for further technological development and research in the paediatric population.

A systematic review investigating the effectiveness of Complementary and Alternative Medicine (CAM) for the management of low back and/or pelvic pain (LBPP) in pregnancy

Aim: To evaluate and summarize the current evidence on the effectiveness of complementary and alternative medicine for the management of low back pain and/or pelvic pain in pregnancy.

Background: International research demonstrates that 25-30% of women use complementary and alternative medicine to manage low back and pelvic pain in pregnancy without robust evidence demonstrating its effectiveness.

Design: A systematic review of randomized controlled trials to determine the effectiveness of complementary and alternative medicine for low back and/or pelvic pain in pregnancy.

Data Sources: Cochrane library (1898-2013), PubMed (1996-2013), MEDLINE (1946-2013), AMED (1985-2013), Embase (1974-2013), Cinahl (1937-2013), Index to Thesis (1716-2013) and Ethos (1914-2013).

Review Methods: Selected studies were written in English, randomized controlled trials, a group 1 or 2 therapy and reported pain reduction as an outcome measure. Study quality was reviewed using Risk of Bias and evidence strength the Cochrane Grading of Recommendations and Development Evaluation Tool.

Results: Eight studies were selected for full review. Two acupuncture studies with low risk of bias showed both clinically important changes and statistically significant results. There was evidence of effectiveness for osteopathy and chiropractic. However, osteopathy and chiropractic studies scored high for risk of bias. Strength of the evidence across studies was very low.

Conclusion: There is limited evidence supporting the use of general CAM for managing pregnancy-related low back and/or pelvic pain. However, the restricted availability of high-quality studies, combined with the very low evidence strength, makes it impossible to make evidence-based recommendations for practice.

Arsenic trioxide and all-trans retinoic acid treatment for acute promyelocytic leukaemia in all risk groups (AML17): results of a randomised, controlled, phase 3 trial

BACKGROUND: Acute promyelocytic leukaemia is a chemotherapy-sensitive subgroup of acute myeloid leukaemia characterised by the presence of the PML-RARA fusion transcript. The present standard of care, chemotherapy and all-trans retinoic acid (ATRA), results in a high proportion of patients being cured. In this study, we compare a chemotherapy-free ATRA and arsenic trioxide treatment regimen with the standard chemotherapy-based regimen (ATRA and idarubicin) in both high-risk and low-risk patients with acute promyelocytic leukaemia.

METHODS: In the randomised, controlled, multicentre, AML17 trial, eligible patients (aged ≥16 years) with acute promyelocytic leukaemia, confirmed by the presence of the PML-RARA transcript and without significant cardiac or pulmonary comorbidities or active malignancy, and who were not pregnant or breastfeeding, were enrolled from 81 UK hospitals and randomised 1:1 to receive treatment with ATRA and arsenic trioxide or ATRA and idarubicin. ATRA was given to participants in both groups in a daily divided oral dose of 45 mg/m(2) until remission, or until day 60, and then in a 2 weeks on-2 weeks off schedule. In the ATRA and idarubicin group, idarubicin was given intravenously at 12 mg/m(2) on days 2, 4, 6, and 8 of course 1, and then at 5 mg/m(2) on days 1-4 of course 2; mitoxantrone at 10 mg/m(2) on days 1-4 of course 3, and idarubicin at 12 mg/m(2) on day 1 of the final (fourth) course. In the ATRA and arsenic trioxide group, arsenic trioxide was given intravenously at 0·3 mg/kg on days 1-5 of each course, and at 0·25 mg/kg twice weekly in weeks 2-8 of course 1 and weeks 2-4 of courses 2-5. High-risk patients (those presenting with a white blood cell count >10 × 10(9) cells per L) could receive an initial dose of the immunoconjugate gemtuzumab ozogamicin (6 mg/m(2) intravenously). Neither maintenance treatment nor CNS prophylaxis was given to patients in either group. All patients were monitored by real-time quantitative PCR. Allocation was by central computer minimisation, stratified by age, performance status, and de-novo versus secondary disease. The primary endpoint was quality of life on the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) QLQ-C30 global health status. All analyses are by intention to treat. This trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN55675535.

FINDINGS: Between May 8, 2009, and Oct 3, 2013, 235 patients were enrolled and randomly assigned to ATRA and idarubicin (n=119) or ATRA and arsenic trioxide (n=116). Participants had a median age of 47 years (range 16-77; IQR 33-58) and included 57 high-risk patients. Quality of life did not differ significantly between the treatment groups (EORTC QLQ-C30 global functioning effect size 2·17 [95% CI -2·79 to 7·12; p=0·39]). Overall, 57 patients in the ATRA and idarubicin group and 40 patients in the ATRA and arsenic trioxide group reported grade 3-4 toxicities. After course 1 of treatment, grade 3-4 alopecia was reported in 23 (23%) of 98 patients in the ATRA and idarubicin group versus 5 (5%) of 95 in the ATRA and arsenic trioxide group, raised liver alanine transaminase in 11 (10%) of 108 versus 27 (25%) of 109, oral toxicity in 22 (19%) of 115 versus one (1%) of 109. After course 2 of treatment, grade 3-4 alopecia was reported in 25 (28%) of 89 patients in the ATRA and idarubicin group versus 2 (3%) of 77 in the ATRA and arsenic trioxide group; no other toxicities reached the 10% level. Patients in the ATRA and arsenic trioxide group had significantly less requirement for most aspects of supportive care than did those in the ATRA and idarubicin group.

INTERPRETATION: ATRA and arsenic trioxide is a feasible treatment in low-risk and high-risk patients with acute promyelocytic leukaemia, with a high cure rate and less relapse than, and survival not different to, ATRA and idarubicin, with a low incidence of liver toxicity. However, no improvement in quality of life was seen.