Evolution of the landscape of Madeira Island: long-term vegetation dynamics

The aim of this thesis was to evaluate historical change of the landscape of Madeira Island and to assess spatial and temporal vegetation dynamics. In current research diverse “retrospective techniques”, such as landscape repeat photography, dendrochronology, and research of historical records were used. These, combined with vegetation relevés, aimed to gather information about landscape change, disturbance history, and vegetation successional patterns. It was found that landscape change, throughout 125 years, was higher in the last five decades manly driven by farming abandonment, building growth and exotic vegetation coverage increase. Pristine vegetation was greatly destroyed since early settlement and by the end of the nineteenth century native vegetation was highly devastated due to recurrent antropogenic disturbances. These actions also helped to block plant succession and to modify floristical assemblages, affecting as well as species richness. In places with less hemeroby, although significant growth of vegetation of lower seral stages was detected, the vegetation of most mature stages headed towards unbalance between recovery and loss, being also very vulnerable to exotic species encroachment. Recovery by native vegetation also occurred in areas formerly occupied by exotic plants and agriculture but it was almost negligible. Vegetation recovery followed the successional model currently proposed, attesting the model itself. Yet, succession was slower than espected, due to lack of favourable conditions and to recurrent disturbances. Probable tempus of each seral stage was obtained by growth rates of woody taxa estimated through dendrochronology. The exotic trees which were the dominant trees in the past (Castanea sativa and Pinus pinaster) almost vanished. Eucalyptus globulus, the current main tree of the exotic forest is being replaced by other cover types as Acacia mearnsii. The latter, along with Arundo donax, Cytisus scoparius and Pittosporum undulatum are currently the exotic species with higher invasive behaviour. However, many other exotic species have also proved to be highly pervasive and came together with the ones referred above to prevent native vegetation regeneration, to diminish biological diversity, and to block early successional phases delaying native forest recovery.

Long-term Responses of Mountain Ecosystems to Environmental Changes: Resilience, Adjustment, and Vulnerability

The steep environmental gradients of mountain ecosystems over short distances reflect large gradients of several climatic parameters and hence provide excellent possibilities for ecological research on the effects of environmental change. To gain a better understanding of the dynamics of abiotic and biotic parameters of mountain ecosystems, long-term records are required since permanent plots in mountain regions cover in the best case about 50 - 70 years. In order to extend investigations of ecological dynamics beyond these temporal limitations of permanent plots, paleoecological approaches can be used if the sampling resolution can be adapted to ecological research questions, e.g. a sample every 10 years. Paleoecological studies in mountain ecosystems can provide new ecological insights through the combination of different spatial and temporal scales. [f we thus improve our understanding of processes across both steep environmental gradients and different time scales, we may be able to better estimate ecosystem responses to current and future environmental change (Ammann et al. 1993; Lotter et al. 1997). The complexity of ecological interactions in mountain regions forces us to concentrate on a number of sub-systems - without losing sight of the wider context. Here, we summarize a few case studies on the effects of Holocene climate change and disturbance on the vegetation of the Western Alps. To categorize the main response modes of vegetation to climatic change and disturbance in the Alps we use three classes of ecological behaviour: "resilience", "adjustment", and "vulnerability", We assume a resilient (or elastic) behaviour if vegetation is able to recover to its former state, regaining important ecosystem characteristics, such as floristic composition, biodiversity, species abundances, and biomass (e.g. Küttel 1990; Aber and Melillo 199 1). Conversely, vegetation displacements may occur in response to climatic change and/or disturbance. In some cases, this may culminate in irreversible large-scale processes such as species and/or community extinctions. Such drastic developments indicate high ecosystem vulnerability (or inelasticity or instability, for detailed definitions see Küttel 1990; Aber and Melillo 199 1) to climatic change and/or disturbance. In this sense, the "vulnerability" (or instability) of an ecosystem is expressed by the degree of failure to recover to the original state before disturbance and/or climatic change. Between these two extremes (resilience vs. vulnerability), ecosystem adjustments to climatic change and/or disturbance may occur, including the appearance of new and/or the disappearance of old species. The term "adjustment" is hence used to indicate the response of vegetational communities, which adapted to new environmental conditions without losing their main character. For forest ecosystems, we assume vegetational adjustments (rather than vulnerability) if the dominant (or co-dominant) tree species are not outnumbered or replaced by formerly unimportant plant species or new invaders. Adaptation as a genetic process is not discussed here and will require additional pbylogeographical studies (that incorporate the analysis of ancient DNA) in order to fully understand the distributions of ecotypes.

Long-term stasis in ecological assemblages: Evidence from the fossil record

Studies of plant and animal assemblages from both the terrestrial and the marine fossil records reveal persistence for extensive periods of geological time, sometimes millions of years. Persistence does not require lack of change or the absence of variation from one occurrence of the assemblage to the next in geological time. It does, however, imply that assemblage composition is bounded and that variation occurs within those bounds. The principal cause for these patterns appears to be species-, and perhaps clade-level, environmental fidelity that results in long-term tracking of physical conditions. Other factors that influence persistent recurrence of assemblages are historical, biogeographic effects, the law of large numbers, niche differentiation, and biotic interactions. Much research needs to be done in this area, and greater uniformity is needed in the approaches to studying the problem. However, great potential also exists for enhanced interaction between paleoecology and neoecology in understanding spatiotemporal complexity of ecological dynamics.

Community and cluster centre residential services for adults with intellectual disability: long-term results from an Australian-matched sample

Changes in residential accommodation models for adults with intellectual disability (ID) over the last 20 years in Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States have involved relocation from institutions primarily into dispersed homes in the community. But an evolving alternative service style is the cluster centre. This paper reports on the relocation of a matched group of 30 pairs of adults with moderate and severe IDs and challenging behaviour who were relocated from an institution into either dispersed housing in the community or cluster centres but under the same residential service philosophy. Adaptive and maladaptive behaviour, choice-making and objective life quality were assessed prior to leaving the institution and then after 12 and 24 months of living in the new residential model. Adaptive behaviour, choice-making and life quality increased for both groups and there was no change in level of maladaptive behaviour compared with levels exhibited in the institution. However, there were some significant differences between the community and cluster centre group as the community group increased some adaptive skills, choice-making and objective life quality to a greater extent than the cluster centre group. Both cluster centre and dispersed community living offer lifestyle and skill development advantages compared with opportunities available in large residential institutions. Dispersed community houses, however, offer increased opportunities for choice-making, acquisition of adaptive behaviours and improved life quality for long-term institutionalized adults with IDs.

Risk of serious NSAID-related gastrointestinal events during long-term exposure: a systematic review

Objective: Exposure to non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) is associated wit increased risk of serious gastrointestinal (GI) events compared with non-exposure. We investigated whether that risk is sustained over time. Data sources: Cochrane Controlled Trials Register (to 2002); MEDLINE, EMBASE, Derwent Drug File and Current Contents (1999-2002); manual searching of reviews (1999-2002). Study selection: From 479 search results reviewed and 221 articles retrieved, seven studies of patients exposed to prescription non-selective NSAIDs for more than 6 months and reporting time-dependent serious GI event rates were selected for quantitative data synthesis. These were stratified into two groups by study design. Data extraction: Incidence of GI events and number of patients at specific time points were extracted. Data synthesis: Meta-regression analyses were performed. Change in risk was evaluated by testing whether the slope of the regression line declined over time. Four randomised controlled trials (RCTs) provided evaluable data from five NSAID arms (aspirin, naproxen, two ibuprofen arms, and diclofenac). When the RCT data were combined, a small significant decline in annualised risk was seen: -0.005% (95% Cl, -0.008% to -0.001%) per month. Sensitivity analyses were conducted because there was disparity within the RCT data. The pooled estimate from three cohort studies showed no significant decline in annualised risk over periods up to 2 years: -0.003% (95% Cl, -0.008% to 0.003%) per month. Conclusions: Small decreases in risk over time were observed; these were of negligible clinical importance. For patients who need long-term (> 6 months) treatment, precautionary measures should be considered to reduce the net probability of serious GI events over the anticipated treatment duration. The effect of intermittent versus regular daily therapy on long-term risk needs further investigation.

Retail restructuring and consumer choice 1:long term local changes in consumer behaviour : Portsmouth 1980-2002

Over the last two decades fundamental changes have taken place in the global supply and local structure of provision of British food retailing. Consumer lifestyles have also changed markedly. Despite some important studies of local interactions between new retail developments and consumers, we argue in this paper that there is a critical need to gauge the cumulative effects of these changes on consumer behaviour over longer periods. In this, the first of two papers, we present the main findings of a study of the effects of long-term retail change on consumers at the local level. We provide in this paper an overview of the changing geography of retail provision and patterns of consumption at the local level. We contextualise the Portsmouth study area as a locality that typifies national changes in retail provision and consumer lifestyles; outline the main findings of two large-scale surveys of food shopping behaviour carried out in 1980 and 2002; and reveal the impacts of retail restructuring on consumer behaviour. We focus in particular on choice between stores at the local level and end by problematising our understanding of how consumers experience choice, emphasising the need for qualitative research. This issue is then dealt with in our complementary second paper, which explores choice within stores and how this relates to the broader spatial context.

Midterm to long-term longitudinal outcome of autologous chondrocyte implantation in the knee joint:a multilevel analysis

Background Autologous chondrocyte implantation is a cell therapeutic approach for the treatment of chondral and osteochondral defects in the knee joint. The authors previously reported on the histologic and radiologic outcome of autologous chondrocyte implantation in the short- to midterm, which yields mixed results. Purpose The objective is to report on the clinical outcome of autologous chondrocyte implantation for the knee in the midterm to long term. Study Design Cohort study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods Eighty patients who had undergone autologous chondrocyte implantation of the knee with mid- to long-term follow-up were analyzed. The mean patient age was 34.6 years (standard deviation, 9.1 years), with 63 men and 17 women. Seventy-one patients presented with a focal chondral defect, with a median defect area of 4.1 cm2 and a maximum defect area of 20 cm2. The modified Lysholm score was used as a self-reporting clinical outcome measure to determine the following: (1) What is the typical pattern over time of clinical outcome after autologous chondrocyte implantation; and (2) Which patient-related predictors for the clinical outcome pattern can be used to improve patient selection for autologous chondrocyte implantation? Results The average follow-up time was 5 years (range, 2.7–9.3). Improvement in clinical outcome was found in 65 patients (81%), while 15 patients (19%) showed a decline in outcome. The median preoperative Lysholm score of 54 increased to a median of 78 points. The most rapid improvement in Lysholm score was over the 15-month period after operation, after which the Lysholm score remained constant for up to 9 years. The authors were unable to identify any patient-specific factors (ie, age, gender, defect size, defect location, number of previous operations, preoperative Lysholm score) that could predict the change in clinical outcome in the first 15 months. Conclusion Autologous chondrocyte implantation seems to provide a durable clinical outcome in those patients demonstrating success at 15 months after operation. Comparisons between other outcome measures of autologous chondrocyte implantation should be focused on the clinical status at 15 months after surgery. The patient-reported clinical outcome at 15 months is a major predictor of the mid- to long-term success of autologous chondrocyte implantation.

The SECURE study:long-term safety of Ranibizumab 0.5 mg in neovascular age-related macular degeneration

Objective - To evaluate long-term safety of intravitreal ranibizumab 0.5-mg injections in neovascular age-related macular degeneration (nAMD). Design - Twenty-four–month, open-label, multicenter, phase IV extension study. Participants - Two hundred thirty-four patients previously treated with ranibizumab for 12 months in the EXCITE/SUSTAIN study. Methods - Ranibizumab 0.5 mg administered at the investigator's discretion as per the European summary of product characteristics 2007 (SmPC, i.e., ranibizumab was administered if a patient experienced a best-corrected visual acuity [BCVA] loss of >5 Early Treatment Diabetic Retinopathy Study letters measured against the highest visual acuity [VA] value obtained in SECURE or previous studies [EXCITE and SUSTAIN], attributable to the presence or progression of active nAMD in the investigator's opinion). Main Outcome Measures - Incidence of ocular or nonocular adverse events (AEs) and serious AEs, mean change in BCVA from baseline over time, and the number of injections. Results - Of 234 enrolled patients, 210 (89.7%) completed the study. Patients received 6.1 (mean) ranibizumab injections over 24 months. Approximately 42% of patients had 7 or more visits at which ranibizumab was not administered, although they had experienced a VA loss of more than 5 letters, indicating either an undertreatment or that factors other than VA loss were considered for retreatment decision by the investigator. The most frequent ocular AEs (study eye) were retinal hemorrhage (12.8%; 1 event related to study drug), cataract (11.5%; 1 event related to treatment procedure), and increased intraocular pressure (6.4%; 1 event related to study drug). Cataract reported as serious due to hospitalization for cataract surgery occurred in 2.6% of patients; none was suspected to be related to study drug or procedure. Main nonocular AEs were hypertension and nasopharyngitis (9.0% each). Arterial thromboembolic events were reported in 5.6% of the patients. Five (2.1%) deaths occurred during the study, none related to the study drug or procedure. At month 24, mean BCVA declined by 4.3 letters from the SECURE baseline. Conclusions - The SECURE study showed that ranibizumab administered as per a VA-guided flexible dosing regimen recommended in the European ranibizumab SmPC at the investigator's discretion was well tolerated over 2 years. No new safety signals were identified in patients who received ranibizumab for a total of 3 years. On average, patients lost BCVA from the SECURE study baseline, which may be the result of disease progression or possible undertreatment.

Results of the IEA round Robin on viscosity and aging of fast pyrolysis bio-oils:long-term tests and repeatability

An international round robin study of the viscosity measurements and aging of fast pyrolysis bio-oil has been undertaken recently, and this work is an outgrowth from that effort. Two bio-oil samples were distributed to two laboratories for accelerated aging tests and to three laboratories of long-term aging studies. The accelerated aging test was defined as the change in viscosity of a sealed sample of bio-oil held for 24 h at 80 °C. The test was repeated 10 times over consecutive days to determine the intra-laboratory repeatability of the method. Other bio-oil samples were placed in storage at three temperatures, 21, 5, and -17 °C, for a period of up to 1 year to evaluate the change in viscosity. The variation in the results of the accelerated aging test was shown to be low within a given laboratory. The long-term aging studies showed that storage of a filtered bio-oil under refrigeration can minimize the amount of change in viscosity. The accelerated aging test gave a measure of change similar to that of 6-12 months of storage at room temperature for a filtered bio-oil. Filtration of solids was identified as a key contributor to improving the stability of the bio-oil as expressed by the viscosity based on results of the accelerated aging tests as well as long-term aging studies. Only the filtered bio-oil consistently gave useful results in the accelerated aging and long-term aging studies. The inconsistency suggests that better protocols need to be developed for sampling bio-oils. These results can be helpful in setting standards for use of bio-oil, which is just coming into the marketplace. © 2012 American Chemical Society.

Short-term changes in ocular biometry and refraction after discontinuation of long-term orthokeratology

OBJECTIVE: To assess refractive and biometric changes 1 week after discontinuation of lens wear in subjects who had been wearing orthokeratology (OK) contact lenses for 2 years. METHODS: Twenty-nine subjects aged 6 to 12 years and with myopia of -0.75 to -4.00 diopters (D) and astigmatism of ≤1.00 D participated in the study. Measurements of axial length and anterior chamber depth (Zeiss IOLMaster), corneal power and shape, and cycloplegic refraction were taken 1 week after discontinuation and compared with those at baseline and after 24 months of lens wear. RESULTS: A hyperopic shift was found at 24 months relative to baseline in spherical equivalent refractive error (+1.86±1.01 D), followed by a myopic shift at 1 week relative to 24 months (-1.93±0.92 D) (both P<0.001). Longer axial lengths were found at 24 months and 1 week in comparison to baseline (0.47±0.18 and 0.51±0.18 mm, respectively) (both P<0.001). The increase in axial length at 1 week relative to 24 months was statistically significant (0.04±0.06 mm; P=0.006). Anterior chamber depth did not change significantly over time (P=0.31). Significant differences were found between 24 months and 1 week relative to baseline and between 1-week and 24-month visits in mean corneal power (-1.68±0.80, -0.44±0.32, and 1.23±0.70 D, respectively) (all P≤0.001). Refractive change at 1 week in comparison to 24 months strongly correlated with changes in corneal power (r=-0.88; P<0.001) but not with axial length changes (r=-0.09; P=0.66). Corneal shape changed significantly between the baseline and 1-week visits (0.15±0.10 D; P<0.001). Corneal shape changed from a prolate to a more oblate corneal shape at the 24-month and 1-week visits in comparison to baseline (both P≤0.02) but did not change significantly between 24 months and 1 week (P=0.06). CONCLUSIONS: The effects of long-term OK on ocular biometry and refraction are still present after 1-week discontinuation of lens wear. Refractive change after discontinuation of long-term OK is primarily attributed to the recovery of corneal shape and not to an increase in the axial length.

Short- and long-term changes in corneal aberrations and axial length induced by orthokeratology in children are not correlated

PURPOSE: To assess the correlation between changes in corneal aberrations and the 2-year change in axial length in children fitted with orthokeratology (OK) contact lenses. METHODS: Thirty-one subjects 6 to 12 years of age and with myopia −0.75 to −4.00DS and astigmatism ≤1.00DC were fitted with OK. Measurements of axial length and corneal topography were taken at regular intervals over a 2-year period. Corneal topography at baseline and after 3 and 24 months of OK lens wear was used to derive higher-order corneal aberrations (HOA) that were correlated with OK-induced axial length changes at 2 years. RESULTS: Significant changes in C3, C4, C4, root mean square (RMS) secondary astigmatism and fourth and total HOA were found with both 3 and 24 months of OK lens wear in comparison with baseline (all P0.05). Coma angle of orientation changed significantly pre-OK in comparison with 3 and 24 months post-OK as well as secondary astigmatism angle of orientation pre-OK in comparison with 24 months post-OK (all P0.05). DISCUSSION: Short-term and long-term OK lens wear induces significant changes in corneal aberrations that are not significantly correlated with changes in axial elongation after 2-years.

Long-term dynamic patterns and diversity of phytoplankton communities in a large eutrophic river (the case of River Danube, Hungary)

In this paper we present the composition, seasonal dynamics and fluctuations in diversity of the phytoplankton in the Danube River over 24 years. Weekly samplings were conducted at one section of the river at Göd, in the 1669 river kilometer segment. The change in the phytoplankton community structure was analyzed in relation of water temperature and discharge means. Our findings support the opinion that the Danube is very rich in species, although many of the species are rare and could be described only as coloring species. Results indicate trends in the phytoplankton abundance, which are only detectable in long-term studies. By the help of diversity indices we have observed an increase in the phytoplankton community diversity. With the relevant information, an explanation of the significant changes in diversity and richness was formed. Our goals were a construction of a solid database of the phytoplankton, examining the seasonal dynamics of the phytoplankton through a 24 year long study and to see the most important changing factors of the community. The results of this study are to assist and help future model developments to predict the phytoplankton seasonal dynamic patterns.

Arctic ecosystem responses to changes in water availability and warming: Short and long-term responses

Arctic soils store close to 14% of the global soil carbon. Most of arctic carbon is stored below ground in the permafrost. With climate warming the decomposition of the soil carbon could represent a significant positive feedback to global greenhouse warming. Recent evidence has shown that the temperature of the Arctic is already increasing, and this change is associated mostly with anthropogenic activities. Warmer soils will contribute to permafrost degradation and accelerate organic matter decay and thus increase the flux of carbon dioxide and methane into the atmosphere. Temperature and water availability are also important drivers of ecosystem performance, but effects can be complex and in opposition. Temperature and moisture changes can affect ecosystem respiration (ER) and gross primary productivity (GPP) independently; an increase in the net ecosystem exchange can be a result of either a decrease in ER or an increase in GPP. Therefore, understanding the effects of changes in ecosystem water and temperature on the carbon flux components becomes key to predicting the responses of the Arctic to climate change. The overall goal of this work was to determine the response of arctic systems to simulated climate change scenarios with simultaneous changes in temperature and moisture. A temperature and hydrological manipulation in a naturally-drained lakebed was used to assess the short-term effect of changes in water and temperature on the carbon cycle. Also, as part of International Tundra Experiment Network (ITEX), I determined the long-term effect of warming on the carbon cycle in a natural hydrological gradient established in the mid 90's. I found that the carbon balance is highly sensitive to short-term changes in water table and warming. However, over longer time periods, hydrological and temperature changed soil biophysical properties, nutrient cycles, and other ecosystem structural and functional components that down regulated GPP and ER, especially in wet areas.

Long-Term Effects of Adding Nutrients to an Oligotrophic Coastal Environment

Management of ecological disturbances requires an understanding of the time scale and dynamics of community responses to disturbance events. To characterize long-term seagrass bed responses to nutrient enrichment, we established six study sites in Florida Bay, USA. In 24 plots (0.25 m2) at each site, we regularly added nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) in a factorial design for 7 years. Five of the six sites exhibited strong P limitation. Over the first 2 years, P enrichment increased Thalassia testudinum cover in the three most P-limited sites. After 3 years, Halodule wrightii began to colonize many of the P-addition plots, but the degree of colonization was variable among sites, possibly due to differences in the supply of viable propagules. Thalassia increased its allocation to aboveground tissue in response to P enrichment; Halodule increased in total biomass but did not appear to change its aboveground: belowground tissue allocation. Nutrient enrichment did not cause macroalgal or epiphytic overgrowth of the seagrass. Nitrogen retention in the study plots was variable but relatively low, whereas phosphorus retention was very high, often exceeding 100% of the P added as fertilizer over the course of our experiments. Phosphorus retentions exceeding 100% may have been facilitated by increases in Thalassia aboveground biomass, which promoted the settlement of suspended particulate matter containing phosphorus. Our study demonstrated that lowintensity press disturbance events such as phosphorus enrichment can initiate a slow, ramped successional process that may alter community structure over many years.