Principals, politics and change : confronting school resilience to radical renewal

Governments expect school principals to lead and manage significant change to implement school improvement agendas. Research evidence suggests, however, that schools are slow to change (Evans, 1996; Duignan, 2006), that many teachers resist change (Marzano, Waters & McNulty, 2005), and that change is often cursory or short lived – not disrupting dominant cultures and existing arrangements (Johnson, 2004). This paper discusses the resistance to major change encountered by Australian principals, and their perceptions of its causes. Emergent themes demonstrate that the success or otherwise of change rests heavily on the political astuteness of principals, which suggests the need for ongoing professional learning and leadership support around the issue of leading and managing change.

Cointegration of stock markets between New Zealand, Australia and the G7 Economies :searching for common trends under structural change

This paper examines whether the New Zealand equity market is integrated with the equity markets of Australia and the G7 economies by applying both the Johansen (1988) and Gregory and Hansen (1996) approaches to cointegration. The Johansen (1988) test suggests that there is no long-run relationship between the New Zealand stock market and any of the other stock markets considered in the study. The Gregory and Hansen (1996) test finds that the New Zealand and United States stock market is cointegrated, but the New Zealand stock market is not cointegrated with the other stock markets in the study. This suggests that in order to avoid some of the risk through international portfolio diversification there is potential for investors to purchase shares in the New Zealand market and either the Australian market or most of the world’s leading equity markets.

Climate change impacts and adaptation in Bangladesh : an agent-based approach

Bangladesh exemplifies the complex challenges facing densely populated coastal regions. The
pressures on the country are immense: around 145 million people live within an area of just 145,000 sq-km at
the confluence of three major river systems: the Ganges, the Brahmaputra and the Meghna. While progress
has been made, poverty remains widespread, with around 39% of children under five malnourished. Most of
its land-mass lies below 10m above sea level with considerable areas at sea level, leading to frequent and
prolonged flooding during the monsoons. Sea level rise is leading to more flooding as storm surges rise off
higher sea levels, pushing further inland. Higher sea levels also result in salt-water intrusion into freshwater
coastal aquifers and estuaries, contaminating drinking water and farmland. Warmer ocean waters are also
expected to lead to an increase in the intensity of tropical storms.
Bangladesh depends on the South Asian summer monsoon for most of its rainfall which is expected to
increase, leading to more flooding. Climate scientists are also concerned about the stability of monsoon and
the potential for it to undergo a nonlinear phase shift to a drier regime. Bangladesh faces an additional
hydrological challenge in that the Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers both rise in the Himalaya-Tibetan Plateau
region, where glaciers are melting rapidly. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
concluded that rapid melting is expected to increase river flows until around the late-2030s, by which time
the glaciers are expected to have shrunk from their 1995 extent of 500,000 sq-km to an expected 100,000 sqkm.
After the 2030s, river flows could drop dramatically, turning the great glacier-fed rivers of Asia into
seasonal monsoon-fed rivers. The IPCC concluded that as a result, water shortages in Asia could affect more
than a billion people by the 2050s. Over the same period, crop yields are expected to decline by up to 30% in
South Asia due to a combination of drought and crop heat stress. Bangladesh is therefore likely to face
substantial challenges in the coming decades.
In order to adequately understand the complex, dynamic, spatial and nonlinear challenges facing Bangladesh,
an integrated model of the system is required. An agent-based model (ABM) permits the dynamic
interactions of the economic, social, political, geographic, environmental and epidemiological dimensions of
climate change impacts and adaptation policies to be integrated via a modular approach. Integrating these
dimensions, including nonlinear threshold events such as mass migrations, or the outbreak of conflicts or
epidemics, is possible to a far greater degree with an ABM than with most other approaches.
We are developing a prototype ABM, implemented in Netlogo, to examine the dynamic impacts on poverty,
migration, mortality and conflict from climate change in Bangladesh from 2001 to 2100. The model employs
GIS and sub-district level census and economic data and a coarse-graining methodology to allow model
statistics to be generated on a national scale from local dynamic interactions. This approach allows a more
realistic treatment of distributed spatial events and heterogeneity across the country. The aim is not to
generate precise predictions of Bangladesh’s evolution, but to develop a framework that can be used for
integrated scenario exploration. This paper represents an initial report on progress on this project. So far the
prototype model has demonstrated the desirability and feasibility of integrating the different dimensions of
the complex adaptive system and, once completed, is intended to be used as the basis for a more detailed
policy-oriented model.

Principals and the politics of resistance to change

Governments hold principals accountable for leading and managing significant change for school improvement, primarily demonstrated through enhanced student test results. Research evidence suggests, however, that schools are slow to change, that many individuals are resistant to major change and that school reforms are often cursory or short lived. The stakes for principals to produce measurable improvements are rising, as are disincentives for failure. This article discusses the experiences of Australian principals overseeing major change in the context of rapid structural and policy reform. It focuses specifically on the micro-politics of resistance, through an exploration of principals' experiences and perceptions about leading major change. The article closes with suggestions for future research and leadership practice.

Sustainability leading to building intelligence - knowledge sharing and transfer

A sustainable building regards energy use and greenhouse gas emissions as major components, and its sustainability is within a larger context of benefits about productivity, efficiency, health and safety, and serviceability. An intelligent building requires a quality building automation system design which increases productivity, reduces operational costs and protects the people using the facilities. Council House 2 (CH2) is claimed to change the way Australia approaches ecologically sustainable design and construction. Its building intelligence can be evaluated by energy and water efficiency and quality of indoor environments that elevate productivity and lower operational costs. This paper uses triangulation techniques, based upon the "Building Intelligence Quotient" by the Continental Automated Buildings Association (CABA) and "Green Star Rating" by the Green Building Council of Australia (GBCA), to cross-verify CH2’s sustainability and intelligence. The author examines 18 design reports and 10 research papers to case-study the effectiveness and efficiency of CH2 and concludes that it is not just another sustainable construction but an intelligent building per se. By leveraging the existing knowledge base of green rating, building professions can measure the intelligence without "reinventing the wheel".

The effects of major change : a case study of an Australian university

Organisational RestructuringLeading higher education organisational restructuring is not an easy task. It involves various degree of engagement, decision making and strategic alliances to make the change a success. Research has shown that organisational restructuring has impact on individuals of the organization and vice versa. Studies have shown that imposed change may create negative emotions such as fear of losing something important, anger and anxiety. On the contrary, planned change is accompanied by excitement and hope. Thus, the call for best practices in leading successful organizational change is greater than ever. Factors such as the fundamental characters and practices of higher education, as well as the presence of various human factors (academics and administrative) need to be taken into account. This paper presents the preliminary findings of a case study on organisational restructuring at a higher education institution in Australia. The restructuring in focus involves the amalgamation of two university faculties into one. This paper seeks to present the experiences and life accounts of faculty members with regards to leadership during the amalgamation process. Interviews were carried out with both the academic and administrative staff. Analysis of the interviews found a variation of views on leadership at different levels of the organisation, the emergence of leadership in times of crisis, the gap between the academics and administrative as well as the importance of organisational members to make the restructuring a success. The paper ends with useful suggestions for leaders and their role towards leading successful change in today’s complex higher education scenario.

Principals' perceptions of the use of total quality management concepts for school improvement in Mauritius : leading or misleading?

As a small island country, Mauritius is relying on its human capital and innovative hi-tech industry to ensure future economic viability in the global market. As such, Mauritian education authorities are seeking ways to raise educational standards. One idea being canvassed is that Total Quality Management (TQM) could provide the framework for Mauritian school leaders to deliver imperatives for change and improvement and to achieve the aim of ‘world- class quality education.’ This paper reports the findings of a research into Mauritian principals’ current practices in line with TQM tenets and their perceptions about the usefulness or otherwise of ideas implicit in TQM. The findings indicate that whilst principals agree with current progressive notions and thinking compatible with the TQM philosophy, they have not fully translated them into their practice. The paper identifies challenges and opportunities worthy of discussion for school improvement in twenty-first century Mauritius with its high-tech, world-class ambitions.

Lost in translation? Emotional intelligence, affective economies, leadership and organizational change

Not until the late 1990s did the rational/emotional binary embedded in mainstream literature on educational leadership and management come under challenge. Now the emotional dimensions of organisational change and leadership are widely recognised in the leadership, organisational change and school improvement literature. However, the dissolution of the binary did not draw from feminist social theory, critical organisational theory, the sociology of emotions or critical pedagogy. Instead, the strongest influence in educational leadership and administration has been from psychological theory, management theory and brain science, mobilised particularly through Goleman's notion of emotional intelligence. This article undertakes a feminist deconstruction of two texts: one from organisational theory by Goleman and the other on educational leadership and school improvement, in order to explore how ‘emotion’ has been translated into educational leadership. As a counterpoint, I identify the gaps and silences, appropriations and marginalisation identified from feminist perspectives. I argue that the emotional labour of teaching and leading cannot be individualised because emotion is both relational and contextual.

Marking time: leading and managing the development of assessment in higher education

This book highlights the University of New South Wales (UNSW) Assessment as Learning Project, a three year process of assessment change in faculty. The UNSW Vice-Chancellor, Professor Frederick Hilmer charged faculties with a learning and teaching agenda to investigate ways to make quality assessment practices more effective and efficient for both staff and students. The examples provided in this edited collection demonstrate exemplary case studies and theoretical perspectives on learning, teaching, and assessment. This book presents leading research in assessment as learning with a focus on changing practices as well as discipline specific practices.

Learn from yesterday, live for today, hope for tomorrow : attempting to plan for coastal change in South West Victoria

Learn from yesterday, live for today hope for tomorrow. When Albert Einstein penned these opening words, the realm of planning was least on his mind despite the aptness of the thoughts. This paper, having regard to this quotation, questions whether demographic change in one coastal area is occurring at a faster rate than in non–coastal areas? The South West coastal area of Victoria, from 1981 onwards, has witnessed a dramatic increase in population and also major shifts in the social and economic characteristics of the region. What have been the historic demographic and employment characteristics of the area and has there been a shift in these characteristics leading to the rapid population growth? These questions are considered using the City of Warrnambool, the largest urban centre in South West Victoria, as a study vehicle. The impact of a growing population on the municipal landscape can be demanding in terms of land use planning, land supply and the urban design. This paper will review the population growth using a shift share analysis method compared against overall growth patterns in the Victorian state population and Australia overall. It will then examine government population forecasts for the City of Warrnambool and suggest those impacts upon the current City of Warrnambool landscape.

Mid- to late Holocene landscape change and anthropogenic transformations on Mo‘orea, Society Islands: a multi-proxy approach

Archaeology’s ability to generate long-term datasets of natural and human landscape change positions the discipline as an inter-disciplinary bridge between the social and natural sciences. Using a multi-proxy approach combining archaeological data with palaeoenvironmental indicators embedded in coastal sediments, we outline millennial timescales of lowland landscape evolution in the Society Islands. Geomorphic and cultural histories for four coastal zones on Mo‘orea are reconstructed based on stratigraphic records, sedimentology, pollen analysis, and radiocarbon determinations from mid- to late Holocene contexts. Prehuman records of the island’s flora and fauna are described utilizing landsnail, insect, and botanical data, providing a palaeo-backdrop for later anthropogenic change. Several environmental processes, including sea level change, island subsidence, and anthropogenic alterations, leading to changes in sedimentary budget have operated on Mo‘orea coastlines from c. 4600 to 200 BP. We document significant transformation of littoral and lowland zones which obscured earlier human activities and created significant changes in vegetation and other biota. Beginning as early as 440 BP (1416–1490 cal. ad), a major phase of sedimentary deposition commenced which can only be attributed to anthropogenic effects. At several sites, between 1.8 and 3.0 m of terrigenous sediments accumulated within a span of two to three centuries due to active slope erosion and deposition on the coastal flats. This phase correlates with the period of major inland expansion of Polynesian occupation and intensive agriculture on the island, indicated by the presence of charcoal throughout the sediments, including wood charcoal from several economically important tree species.

A path model of psychosocial and health behaviour change predictors of excessive gestational weight gain

This study aimed to evaluate a conceptual model of psychosocial, behaviour change, and behavioural predictors of excessive gestational weight gain (GWG). Background: Excessive GWG can place women and their babies at risk of poor health outcomes, including obesity. Models of psychosocial and behaviour change predictors of excessive GWG have not been extensively explored; understanding the mechanisms leading to excess GWG will provide crucial evidence towards the development of effective interventions. Method: Two hundred and eighty-eight pregnant women (≤18 weeks gestation) were recruited to a prospective study. Demographic, psychosocial, health behaviour change, and behavioural factors were assessed at 17 (Time 1, T1) and 33 weeks (Time 2, T2) gestation. Pre-pregnancy and final pregnancy weight were obtained and women were classified with/without excessive GWG. Logistic regressions refined the list of predictors of excessive GWG; variables with p < .1 were included in a path analysis. Results: Age, family income, T2 depression, T2 pregnancy-specific coping, T1 buttocks dissatisfaction, T2 GWG-specific self-efficacy, T1 dietary readiness, T1 dietary importance, and T1 vegetable intake predicted excessive GWG in the logistic regressions and were included in the path model. The baseline path model demonstrated poor fit. Once statistically and theoretically plausible paths were added, adequate model fit was achieved (χ² = 21.61(9), p < .05; RMSEA = .07; CFI = .93); this revised model explained 19.5% of the variance in excessive GWG. Women with high T1 buttocks dissatisfaction were more likely to exhibit low levels of dietary readiness. Women with low dietary readiness were more likely to have a lower vegetable intake, which predicted excessive GWG. Women with higher T2 depressive symptoms were more likely to report lower GWG self-efficacy and gain excessively. Conclusion: Future behavioural GWG trials should consider combining psychosocial and health behaviour change factors to optimise GWG.

Analytical optimization of spread and change of exponential decay of generalized Wannier functions in one dimension

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Policy Brief: an assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the Caribbean

Caribbean policymakers are faced with special challenges from climate change and these are related to the uncertainties inherent in future climate projections and the complex linkages among climate change, physical and biological systems and socioeconomic sectors. The impacts of climate change threaten development in the Caribbean and may well erode previous gains in development as evidenced by the increased incidence of climate migrants internationally. This brief which is based on a recent study conducted by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (LC/CAR/L.395)1 provides a synthesis of the assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate change on the coastal and marine sector in the Caribbean which were undertaken. It provides Caribbean policymakers with cutting-edge information on the region’s vulnerability and encourages the development of adaptation strategies informed by both local experience and expert knowledge. It proceeds from an acknowledgement that the unique combination of natural resources, ecosystems, economic activities, and human population settlements of the Caribbean will not be immune to the impacts of climate change, and local communities, countries and the subregion as a whole need to plan for, and adapt to, these effects. Climate and extreme weather hazards related to the coastal and marine sector encompass the distinct but related factors of sea level rise, increasing coastal water temperatures, tropical storms and hurricanes. Potential vulnerabilities for coastal zones include increased shoreline erosion leading to alteration of the coastline, loss of coastal wetlands, and changes in the abundance and diversity of fish and other marine populations. The study examines four key themes in the analysis: climate, vulnerability, economic and social costs associated with climate change impacts, and adaptive measures.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Coastal and Human Settlements and Health Sectors in Guyana

This report analyses the agriculture, coastal and human settlements and health sectors in Guyana to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Guyana. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help bring the Caribbean sub-region closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining national and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated manifestations of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050 (agriculture and health sectors) and 2100 (coastal and human settlements sector). An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on three leading sub-sectors namely: sugar-cane, rice-paddy and fisheries. In estimating costs, the sugar sub-sector is projected to experience losses under A2 between US$ 144 million (at 4% discount rate) and US$300 million (1% rate); comparative statistics for rice are US$795 million and US$1577 million, respectively; while for fisheries, the results show that losses range from US$15 million (4% rate) and US$34 million (1% rate). In general, under the B2 scenarios, there are gains for sugar up to 2030 under all three discount rates while for rice the performance is somewhat better with gains realized under all three discount rates up to 2040. For fisheries, gains are forecasted under all three rates up to 2050, following marginal losses to 2020. In terms of the benefit-cost analysis conducted on selected adaptation measures under the A2 scenario, there were net benefits for all three commodities under all three discount rates. For the sugar-cane sub-sector these are: drainage and irrigation upgrade, purchase of new machinery for planting and harvesting, developing and replanting climate tolerant sugar-cane. The rice-paddy sub-sector will benefit from adaptive strategies, which include maintenance of drainage and irrigation systems, research and development, as well as education and training. Adaptation in the fisheries sub-sector must include measures such as, mangrove development and restoration and public education. The analysis of the coastal and human settlements sector has shown that based upon exposed assets and population, SLR can be classified as having the potential to create catastrophic conditions in Guyana. The main contributing factor is the concentration of socioeconomic infrastructure along the coastline in vulnerable areas.