A model for determining the optimal project life span and concession period of BOT projects

The concession agreement is the core feature of BOT projects, with the concession period being the most essential feature in determining the time span of the various rights, obligations and responsibilities of the government and concessionaire. Concession period design is therefore crucial for financial viability and determining the benefit/cost allocation between the host government and the concessionaire. However, while the concession period and project life span are essentially interdependent, most methods to date consider their determination as contiguous events that are determined exogenously. Moreover, these methods seldom consider the, often uncertain, social benefits and costs involved that are critical in defining, pricing and distributing benefits and costs between the various parties and evaluating potentially distributable cash flows. In this paper, we present the results of the first stage of a research project aimed at determining the optimal build-operate-transfer (BOT) project life span and concession period endogenously and interdependently by maximizing the combined benefits of stakeholders. Based on the estimation of the economic and social development involved, a negotiation space of the concession period interval is obtained, with its lower boundary creating the desired financial return for the private investors and its upper boundary ensuring the economic feasibility of the host government as well as the maximized welfare within the project life. The outcome of the new quantitative model is considered as a suitable basis for future field trials prior to implementation. The structure and details of the model are provided in the paper with Hong Kong tunnel project as a case study to demonstrate its detailed application. The basic contributions of the paper to the theory of construction procurement are that the project life span and concession period are determined jointly and the social benefits taken into account in the examination of project financial benefits. In practical terms, the model goes beyond the current practice of linear-process thinking and should enable engineering consultants to provide project information more rationally and accurately to BOT project bidders and increase the government's prospects of successfully entering into a contract with a concessionaire. This is expected to generate more negotiation space for the government and concessionaire in determining the major socioeconomic features of individual BOT contracts when negotiating the concession period. As a result, the use of the model should increase the total benefit to both parties.

Causes of death in patients with rheumatoid arthritis over a 40-year period : with special emphasis on autopsy

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients have premature mortality. Contrary to the general population, mortality in RA has not declined over time. This study aimed to evaluate determinants of mortality in RA by examining causes of death (CoDs) over time, accuracy of CoD diagnoses, and contribution of RA medication to CoDs. This study further evaluated detection rate of reactive systemic amyloid A amyloidosis, which is an important contributor to RA mortality. CoDs were examined in 960 RA patients between 1971 and 1991 (Study population A) and in 369 RA patients autopsied from 1952 to 1991, with non-RA patients serving as the reference cases (Study population B). In Study population B, CoDs by the clinician before autopsy were compared to those by the pathologist at autopsy to study accuracy of CoD diagnoses. In Study population B, autopsy tissue samples were re-examined systematically for amyloidosis (90% of patients) and clinical data for RA patients was studied from 1973. RA patients died most frequently of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), infections, and RA. RA deaths declined over time. Coronary deaths showed no major change in Study population A, but, in Study population B, coronary deaths in RA patients increased from 1952 to 1991, while non-RA cases had a decrease in coronary deaths starting in the 1970s. Between CoD diagnoses by the clinician and those by the pathologist, RA patients had lower agreement than non-RA cases regarding cardiovascular (Kappa reliability measure: 0.31 vs. 0.51) and coronary deaths (0.33 vs. 0.46). Use of disease modifying anti-rheumatic drugs was not associated with any CoD. In RA patients, re-examination of autopsy tissue samples doubled the prevalence of amyloid compared with the original autopsy: from 18% to 30%. In the amyloid-positive RA patients, amyloidosis was diagnosed before autopsy in only 37%; and they had higher inflammatory levels and longer duration of RA than amyloid-negative RA patients. Of the RA patients with amyloid, only half had renal failure or proteinuria during lifetime. In RA, most important determinants of mortality were CVDs, RA, and infections. In RA patients, RA deaths decreased over time, but this was not true for coronary deaths. Coronary death being less accurately diagnosed in RA may indicate that coronary heart disease (CHD) often goes unrecognized during lifetime. Thus, active search for CHD and its effective treatment is important to reduce cardiovascular mortality. Reactive amyloidosis may often go undetected. In RA patients with proteinuria or renal failure, as well as with active and long-lasting RA, a systematic search for amyloid is important to enable early diagnosis and early enhancement of therapy. This is essential to prevent clinical manifestations of amyloidosis such as renal failure, which has a poor prognosis.

Mothers' sleepiness and driving in the postpartum period

The postpartum period is typically a time of increased sleepiness, however little research has investigated mothers' sleepiness whilst driving during this period. The research presented in this thesis details three studies systematically designed to assess postpartum mothers' sleepiness and driving, followed by the utilisation of this information in the development of an information-based program designed to convey pertinent evidence-based information about postpartum sleepiness, sleep, and sleepy driving.

Photobiomodulation by Low Power Laser Irradiation Involves Activation of Latent TGF-β1

Laser mediated stimulation of biological process was amongst its very first effects documented by Mester et al. but the ambiguous and tissue-cell context specific biological effects of laser radiation is now termed ‘Photobiomodulation’. We found many parallels between the reported biological effects of lasers and a multiface-ted growth factor, Transforming Growth Factor-β (TGF-β). This review outlines the interestingparallelsbetween the twofieldsand our rationalefor pursuingtheir potential causal correlation. We explored this correlation using an in vitro assay systems and a human clinical trial on healing wound extraction sockets that we reported in a recent publication. In conclusion we report that low power laser irradiation can activate latent TGF-β1 and β3 complexes and suggest that this might be one of the major modes of the photobiomodulatory effects of low power lasers.

On latent heat of vaporization, surface tension, and temperature

A semitheoretical equation for latent heat of vaporization has been derived and tested. The average error in predicting the value at the normal boiling point in the case of about 90 compounds, which includes polar and nonpolar liquids, is about 1.8%. A relation between latent heat of vaporization and surface tension is also derived and is shown to lead to Watson's empirical relation which gives the change of latent heat of vaporization with temperature. This gives a physico-chemical justification for Watson's empirical relation and provides a rapid method of determining latent heats by measuring surface tension.

Chronopotentiometry with power-law perturbation functions at an expanding plane electrode with and without a preceding blank period for systems with a coupled first-order homogeneous chemical reaction

The systems formalism is used to obtain the interfacial concentration transients for power-law current input at an expanding plane electrode. The explicit results for the concentration transients obtained here pertain to arbitrary homogeneous reaction schemes coupled to the oxidant and reductant of a single charge-transfer step and the power-law form without and with a preceding blank period (for two types of power-law current profile, say, (i) I(t) = I0(t−t0)q for t greater-or-equal, slanted t0, I(t) = 0 for t < t0; and (ii) I(t) = I0tq for t greater-or-equal, slanted t0, I(t) = 0 for t < t0). Finally the potential transients are obtained using Padé approximants. The results of Galvez et al. (for E, CE, EC, aC) (J. Electroanal. Chem., 132 (1982) 15; 146 (1983) 221, 233, 243), Molina et al. (for E) (J. Electroanal. Chem., 227 (1987) 1 and Kies (for E) (J. Electroanal. Chem., 45 (1973) 71) are obtained as special cases.

Diagnosis of dominant forcing factors for large-scale vertical velocities during active and break phases of the monsoon

An attempt to diagnose the dominant forcings which drive the large-scale vertical velocities over the monsoon region has been made by computing the forcings like diabatic heating fields,etc. and the large-scale vertical velocities driven by these forcings for the contrasting periods of active and break monsoon situations; in order to understand the rainfall variability associated with them. Computation of diabatic heating fields show us that among different components of diabatic heating it is the convective heating that dominates at mid-tropospheric levels during an active monsoon period; whereas it is the sensible heating at the surface that is important during a break period. From vertical velocity calculations we infer that the prime differences in the large-scale vertical velocities seen throughout the depth of the atmosphere are due to the differences in the orders of convective heating; the maximum rate of latent heating being more than 10 degrees Kelvin per day during an active monsoon period; whereas during a break monsoon period it is of the order of 2 degrees Kelvin per day at mid-tropospheric levels. At low levels of the atmosphere, computations show that there is large-scale ascent occurring over a large spatial region, driven only by the dynamic forcing associated with vorticity and temperature advection during an active monsoon period. However, during a break monsoon period such large-scale spatial organization in rising motion is not seen. It is speculated that these differences in the low-level large-scale ascent might be causing differences in convective heating because the weaker the low level ascent, the lesser the convective instability which produces deep cumulus clouds and hence lesser the associated latent heat release. The forcings due to other components of diabatic heating, namely, the sensible heating and long wave radiative cooling do not influence the large-scale vertical velocities significantly.

On Finding the Natural Number of Topics with Latent Dirichlet Allocation: Some Observations

It is important to identify the ``correct'' number of topics in mechanisms like Latent Dirichlet Allocation(LDA) as they determine the quality of features that are presented as features for classifiers like SVM. In this work we propose a measure to identify the correct number of topics and offer empirical evidence in its favor in terms of classification accuracy and the number of topics that are naturally present in the corpus. We show the merit of the measure by applying it on real-world as well as synthetic data sets(both text and images). In proposing this measure, we view LDA as a matrix factorization mechanism, wherein a given corpus C is split into two matrix factors M-1 and M-2 as given by C-d*w = M1(d*t) x Q(t*w).Where d is the number of documents present in the corpus anti w is the size of the vocabulary. The quality of the split depends on ``t'', the right number of topics chosen. The measure is computed in terms of symmetric KL-Divergence of salient distributions that are derived from these matrix factors. We observe that the divergence values are higher for non-optimal number of topics - this is shown by a `dip' at the right value for `t'.

Luteal-phase defect induced by deprivation of FSH at a specific period of the follicular phase prevents pregnancy in the bonnet monkey (Macaca radiata)

Female bonnet monkeys were injected i.v. with 25 µl antiserum to FSH on Days 5, 6 or 7 of the cycle: the length of the luteal phase was shortened but there was no alteration in cycle length. Proven fertile females (N = 6) were caged throughout the period of the experiment (6 cycles) with proven fertile males and treated with 25 µl FSH antiserum on Day 7 of each of 3 successive cycles. Out of 18 cycle exposures during the treatment phase, 17 were ovulatory, but no pregnancies occurred. In the post-treatment phase, 5 monkeys became pregnant within 3 cycle exposures. These results show that it is possible to render female monkeys infertile by creating luteal insufficiency and this can be achieved repeatedly in a reproducible manner by depriving the cyclic females of FSH support on Day 7 of consecutive cycles.