Beszámoló a spudm 25 konferenciáról

1969 óta kétévente rendezik meg a Subjective Probability, Utility, and Decision Making (SPUDM) elnevezésű konferenciát, amelynek 2015-ben a Döntéselmélet Tanszék szervezésében a Budapesti Corvinus Egyetem adott otthont. A konferencia tudományos tanácsának tagjai Adreas Glöckner, Ana Franco-Watkins, Ido Erev, Aczél Balázs és Szántó Richárd voltak, utóbbi egyben a konferencia szervezőbizottságának elnöki tisztét is betöltötte. A konferencia a European Association for Decision Making közgyűlésének is helyszíne egyben, a résztvevők itt határozzák meg a szervezet rövid távú céljait, döntenek a költségvetés felhasználásáról, és itt jelentik be a megválasztott, soron következő elnököt is, aki ebben az évben a Göttingeni Egyetem professzora, Andreas Glöckner lett. A rendezvényen mintegy 340-en vettek részt, főként Európából, de érkeztek kutatók Amerikából, Ázsiából és Ausztráliából is. A konferencia keretében megrendezett 40 szekcióban és 8 önálló szimpóziumon az ítéletalkotással és a döntéshozatallal (judgment and decision making) kapcsolatos szinte minden kutatási terület megjelent.

The impact of time limitation: insights from a queueing experiment

We experimentally explore the effects of time limitation on decision making. Under different time allowance conditions, subjects are presented with a queueing situation and asked to join one of the two given queues. The results can be grouped under two main categories. The first one concerns the factors driving decisions in a queueing system. Only some subjects behave consistently with rationality principles and use the relevant information efficiently. The rest of the subjects seem to adopt a simpler strategy that does not incorporate some information into their decision. The second category is related to the effects of time limitation on decision performance. A substantial proportion of the population is not affected by time limitations and shows consistent behavior throughout the treatments. On the other hand, some subjects’ performance is impaired by time limitations. More importantly, this impairment is not due to the stringency of the limitation but rather to being exposed to a time constraint.

Adesão a recomendações de ingestão de água, em idosos: preditores psicossociais e efeitos da comunicação de informação com uso de âncoras de referência

Sendo os idosos um grupo de risco face a desidratação, torna-se particularmente relevante desenvolver estratégias eficazes de comunicação em saúde para o incremento da adesão a recomendações médicas para ingestão de água. Com este objetivo procurámos avaliar os efeitos da comunicação de uma recomendação, com recurso a uma referência familiar (e.g. garrafa de 1.5 Litros) na qual os idosos pudessem “ancorar” o seu julgamento e decisão de adesão à recomendação, com base numa mais eficaz compreensão de informação de quantidade. Dos 70 idosos que participaram no estudo, apenas 56 foram considerados na análise, por cumprirem os critérios de inclusão na amostra. Esta amostra incluiu idosos autónomos, não institucionalizados, responsáveis pelas suas escolhas alimentares e com indicadores de hidratação aceitáveis. Os resultados mostraram que numa condição com âncora familiar (mas não na condição sem), a adesão associada ao próprio nível de consumo existente, do idoso aumentou após a recomendação. Análises adicionais identificaram as crenças face à água e as suas várias funções, como um preditor psicossocial positivo da adesão, o mesmo não acontecendo com atitudes face à água, evitamento de informação alimentar negativa e numeracia; Abstract: Being the elderly a risk group with regard to dehydration it is necessary to develop effective health communication strategies to increase adherence to health recommendations concerning water intake. Accordingly, we aimed to assess the effects of communicating a recommendation with the addition of a familiar reference (e.g. bottle of 1.5 Liters) in which the elderly could anchor their judgment and decision making to adhere to the recommendation, based on a better comprehension of the quantified information presented. From the 70 older adults that have participated in the study, only 56 were considered in the analysis, for fulfilling the sample inclusion criteria. This sample included older adults considered to be autonomous, non-institutionalized, responsible for their good choices and with acceptable hydration levels. Results showed that in a condition with a familiar anchor (but not in a condition without) the adherence in line with the elderly own current consumption level, increased after the recommendation. Additional analysis identified beliefs concerning water and its various functions as a positive psychosocial predictor of adherence, the same not happening for attitudes towards water, avoidance of negative food information and numeracy.

Proportion dominance in valuing lives: The role of deliberative thinking

Proportion responding (PR) is the preference for proportionally higher gains, such that the same absolute quantity is valued more as the reference group decreases. This research investigated this kind of proportion PR in decisions about saving lives (e.g., saving 10/10 lives is preferred to saving 10/100 lives). The results of two studies suggest that PR does not stem from an overall tendency to choose higher proportions, but rather from faulty deliberative reasoning. In particular, people who display PR are less likely to engage in deliberative reflection as measured by response time, the Process Dissociation Procedure, the Cognitive Reflection Test, a numeracy test, and a task assessing denominator neglect. This association between faulty deliberation and PR was observed only when choosing the highest proportion was non-normative because it came at the expense of absolute gains (e.g., saving 10/10 lives is preferred to saving 11/100 lives). These results help to make sense of discrepant findings in previous research, pertaining to how PR relates to biased reasoning and decision making.

Good is generally more alike than bad in the information ecology: Investigating the case of (the ABC model of) group stereotypes

On most if not all evaluatively relevant dimensions such as the temperature level, taste intensity, and nutritional value of a meal, one range of adequate, positive states is framed by two ranges of inadequate, negative states, namely too much and too little. This distribution of positive and negative states in the information ecology results in a higher similarity of positive objects, people, and events to other positive stimuli as compared to the similarity of negative stimuli to other negative stimuli. In other words, there are fewer ways in which an object, a person, or an event can be positive as compared to negative. Oftentimes, there is only one way in which a stimulus can be positive (e.g., a good meal has to have an adequate temperature level, taste intensity, and nutritional value). In contrast, there are many different ways in which a stimulus can be negative (e.g., a bad meal can be too hot or too cold, too spicy or too bland, or too fat or too lean). This higher similarity of positive as compared to negative stimuli is important, as similarity greatly impacts speed and accuracy on virtually all levels of information processing, including attention, classification, categorization, judgment and decision making, and recognition and recall memory. Thus, if the difference in similarity between positive and negative stimuli is a general phenomenon, it predicts and may explain a variety of valence asymmetries in cognitive processing (e.g., positive as compared to negative stimuli are processed faster but less accurately). In my dissertation, I show that the similarity asymmetry is indeed a general phenomenon that is observed in thousands of words and pictures. Further, I show that the similarity asymmetry applies to social groups. Groups stereotyped as average on the two dimensions agency / socio-economic success (A) and conservative-progressive beliefs (B) are stereotyped as positive or high on communion (C), while groups stereotyped as extreme on A and B (e.g., managers, homeless people, punks, and religious people) are stereotyped as negative or low on C. As average groups are more similar to one another than extreme groups, according to this ABC model of group stereotypes, positive groups are mentally represented as more similar to one another than negative groups. Finally, I discuss implications of the ABC model of group stereotypes, pointing to avenues for future research on how stereotype content shapes social perception, cognition, and behavior.

Jury decision making and the Story Model: How do deliberation style and evidence order influence the story that juries create?

This study investigated the utility of the Story Model for decision making at the jury level by examining the influence of evidence order and deliberation style on story consistency and guilt. Participants were shown a video-taped trial stimulus and then provided case perceptions including a guilt judgment and a narrative about what occurred during the incident. Participants then deliberated for approximately thirty minutes using either an evidence-driven or verdict-driven deliberation style before again providing case perceptions, including a guilt determination, a narrative about what happened during the incident, and an evidence recognition test. Multi-level regression analyses revealed that evidence order, deliberation style and sample interacted to influence both story consistency measures and guilt. Among students, participants in the verdict-driven deliberation condition formed more consistent pro-prosecution stories when the prosecution presented their case in story-order, while participants in the evidence-driven deliberation condition formed more consistent pro-prosecution stories when the defense's case was presented in story-order. Findings were the opposite among community members, with participants in the verdict-driven deliberation condition forming more consistent pro-prosecution stories when the defense's case was presented in story-order, and participants in the evidence-driven deliberation condition forming more consistent pro-prosecution stories when the prosecution's case was presented in story-order. Additionally several story consistency measures influenced guilt decisions. Thus there is some support for the hypothesis that story consistency mediates the influence of evidence order and deliberation style on guilt decisions.

Decision making in fuzzy environment and multicriteria power engineering problems

This paper presents results of research into the use of the Bellman-Zadeh approach to decision making in a fuzzy environment for solving multicriteria power engineering problems. The application of the approach conforms to the principle of guaranteed result and provides constructive lines in computationally effective obtaining harmonious solutions on the basis of solving associated maxmin problems. The presented results are universally applicable and are already being used to solve diverse classes of power engineering problems. It is illustrated by considering problems of power and energy shortage allocation, power system operation, optimization of network configuration in distribution systems, and energetically effective voltage control in distribution systems. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Future contributions of crop modelling - from heuristics and supporting decision making to understanding genetic regulation and aiding crop improvement

Crop modelling has evolved over the last 30 or so years in concert with advances in crop physiology, crop ecology and computing technology. Having reached a respectable degree of acceptance, it is appropriate to review briefly the course of developments in crop modelling and to project what might be major contributions of crop modelling in the future. Two major opportunities are envisioned for increased modelling activity in the future. One opportunity is in a continuing central, heuristic role to support scientific investigation, to facilitate decision making by crop managers, and to aid in education. Heuristic activities will also extend to the broader system-level issues of environmental and ecological aspects of crop production. The second opportunity is projected as a prime contributor in understanding and advancing the genetic regulation of plant performance and plant improvement. Physiological dissection and modelling of traits provides an avenue by which crop modelling could contribute to enhancing integration of molecular genetic technologies in crop improvement. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.