Joint data detection and dominant singular mode estimation in time varying reciprocal MIMO systems

This paper proposes an algorithm for joint data detection and tracking of the dominant singular mode of a time varying channel at the transmitter and receiver of a time division duplex multiple input multiple output beamforming system. The method proposed is a modified expectation maximization algorithm which utilizes an initial estimate to track the dominant modes of the channel at the transmitter and the receiver blindly; and simultaneously detects the un known data. Furthermore, the estimates are constrained to be within a confidence interval of the previous estimate in order to improve the tracking performance and mitigate the effect of error propagation. Monte-Carlo simulation results of the symbol error rate and the mean square inner product between the estimated and the true singular vector are plotted to show the performance benefits offered by the proposed method compared to existing techniques.

Inference for the Component and System Lifetime Distribution of a k-unit Parallel System Based on System Data

In this paper, we consider the inference for the component and system lifetime distribution of a k-unit parallel system with independent components based on system data. The components are assumed to have identical Weibull distribution. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the unknown parameters based on system data. The Fisher information matrix has been derived. We propose -expectation tolerance interval and -content -level tolerance interval for the life distribution of the system. Performance of the estimators and tolerance intervals is investigated via simulation study. A simulated dataset is analyzed for illustration.

Effect of sampling interval on estimates of larval supply

Estimates of larval supply can provide information on year-class strength that is useful for fisheries management. However, larval supply is difficult to monitor because long-term, high-frequency sampling is needed. The purpose of this study was to subsample an 11-year record of daily larval supply of blue crab (Callinectes sapidus) to determine the effect of sampling interval on variability in estimates of supply. The coefficient of variation in estimates of supply varied by 0.39 among years at a 2-day sampling interval and 0.84 at a 7-day sampling interval. For 8 of the 11 years, there was a significant correlation between mean daily larval supply and lagged fishery catch per trip (coefficient of correlation [r]=0.88). When these 8 years were subsampled, a 2-day sampling interval yielded a significant correlation with fishery data only 64.5% of the time and a 3-day sampling interval never yielded a significant correlation. Therefore, high-frequency sampling (daily or every other day) may be needed to characterize interannual variability in larval supply.

Internal representations of temporal statistics and feedback calibrate motor-sensory interval timing.

Humans have been shown to adapt to the temporal statistics of timing tasks so as to optimize the accuracy of their responses, in agreement with the predictions of Bayesian integration. This suggests that they build an internal representation of both the experimentally imposed distribution of time intervals (the prior) and of the error (the loss function). The responses of a Bayesian ideal observer depend crucially on these internal representations, which have only been previously studied for simple distributions. To study the nature of these representations we asked subjects to reproduce time intervals drawn from underlying temporal distributions of varying complexity, from uniform to highly skewed or bimodal while also varying the error mapping that determined the performance feedback. Interval reproduction times were affected by both the distribution and feedback, in good agreement with a performance-optimizing Bayesian observer and actor model. Bayesian model comparison highlighted that subjects were integrating the provided feedback and represented the experimental distribution with a smoothed approximation. A nonparametric reconstruction of the subjective priors from the data shows that they are generally in agreement with the true distributions up to third-order moments, but with systematically heavier tails. In particular, higher-order statistical features (kurtosis, multimodality) seem much harder to acquire. Our findings suggest that humans have only minor constraints on learning lower-order statistical properties of unimodal (including peaked and skewed) distributions of time intervals under the guidance of corrective feedback, and that their behavior is well explained by Bayesian decision theory.

Missing data in randomized clinical trials for weight loss: scope of the problem, state of the field, and performance of statistical methods.

BACKGROUND: Dropouts and missing data are nearly-ubiquitous in obesity randomized controlled trails, threatening validity and generalizability of conclusions. Herein, we meta-analytically evaluate the extent of missing data, the frequency with which various analytic methods are employed to accommodate dropouts, and the performance of multiple statistical methods. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We searched PubMed and Cochrane databases (2000-2006) for articles published in English and manually searched bibliographic references. Articles of pharmaceutical randomized controlled trials with weight loss or weight gain prevention as major endpoints were included. Two authors independently reviewed each publication for inclusion. 121 articles met the inclusion criteria. Two authors independently extracted treatment, sample size, drop-out rates, study duration, and statistical method used to handle missing data from all articles and resolved disagreements by consensus. In the meta-analysis, drop-out rates were substantial with the survival (non-dropout) rates being approximated by an exponential decay curve (e(-lambdat)) where lambda was estimated to be .0088 (95% bootstrap confidence interval: .0076 to .0100) and t represents time in weeks. The estimated drop-out rate at 1 year was 37%. Most studies used last observation carried forward as the primary analytic method to handle missing data. We also obtained 12 raw obesity randomized controlled trial datasets for empirical analyses. Analyses of raw randomized controlled trial data suggested that both mixed models and multiple imputation performed well, but that multiple imputation may be more robust when missing data are extensive. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Our analysis offers an equation for predictions of dropout rates useful for future study planning. Our raw data analyses suggests that multiple imputation is better than other methods for handling missing data in obesity randomized controlled trials, followed closely by mixed models. We suggest these methods supplant last observation carried forward as the primary method of analysis.

Application of a rank-based genetic association test to age-at-onset data from the Collaborative Study on the Genetics of Alcoholism study.

Association studies of quantitative traits have often relied on methods in which a normal distribution of the trait is assumed. However, quantitative phenotypes from complex human diseases are often censored, highly skewed, or contaminated with outlying values. We recently developed a rank-based association method that takes into account censoring and makes no distributional assumptions about the trait. In this study, we applied our new method to age-at-onset data on ALDX1 and ALDX2. Both traits are highly skewed (skewness > 1.9) and often censored. We performed a whole genome association study of age at onset of the ALDX1 trait using Illumina single-nucleotide polymorphisms. Only slightly more than 5% of markers were significant. However, we identified two regions on chromosomes 14 and 15, which each have at least four significant markers clustering together. These two regions may harbor genes that regulate age at onset of ALDX1 and ALDX2. Future fine mapping of these two regions with densely spaced markers is warranted.

Reducing Uncertainty in Aeroelastic Flutter Boundaries Using Experimental Data

Flutter prediction as currently practiced is usually deterministic, with a single structural model used to represent an aircraft. By using interval analysis to take into account structural variability, recent work has demonstrated that small changes in the structure can lead to very large changes in the altitude at which
utter occurs (Marques, Badcock, et al., J. Aircraft, 2010). In this follow-up work we examine the same phenomenon using probabilistic collocation (PC), an uncertainty quantification technique which can eficiently propagate multivariate stochastic input through a simulation code,
in this case an eigenvalue-based fluid-structure stability code. The resulting analysis predicts the consequences of an uncertain structure on incidence of
utter in probabilistic terms { information that could be useful in planning
flight-tests and assessing the risk of structural failure. The uncertainty in
utter altitude is confirmed to be substantial. Assuming that the structural uncertainty represents a epistemic uncertainty regarding the
structure, it may be reduced with the availability of additional information { for example aeroelastic response data from a flight-test. Such data is used to update the structural uncertainty using Bayes' theorem. The consequent
utter uncertainty is significantly reduced across the entire Mach number range.

Job Strain and Tobacco Smoking:An Individual-Participant Data Meta-Analysis of 166 130 Adults in 15 European Studies

BACKGROUND: Tobacco smoking is a major contributor to the public health burden and healthcare costs worldwide, but the determinants of smoking behaviours are poorly understood. We conducted a large individual-participant meta-analysis to examine the extent to which work-related stress, operationalised as job strain, is associated with tobacco smoking in working adults. METHODOLOGY AND PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We analysed cross-sectional data from 15 European studies comprising 166 130 participants. Longitudinal data from six studies were used. Job strain and smoking were self-reported. Smoking was harmonised into three categories never, ex- and current. We modelled the cross-sectional associations using logistic regression and the results pooled in random effects meta-analyses. Mixed effects logistic regression was used to examine longitudinal associations. Of the 166 130 participants, 17% reported job strain, 42% were never smokers, 33% ex-smokers and 25% current smokers. In the analyses of the cross-sectional data, current smokers had higher odds of job strain than never-smokers (age, sex and socioeconomic position-adjusted odds ratio: 1.11, 95% confidence interval: 1.03, 1.18). Current smokers with job strain smoked, on average, three cigarettes per week more than current smokers without job strain. In the analyses of longitudinal data (1 to 9 years of follow-up), there was no clear evidence for longitudinal associations between job strain and taking up or quitting smoking. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings show that smokers are slightly more likely than non-smokers to report work-related stress. In addition, smokers who reported work stress smoked, on average, slightly more cigarettes than stress-free smokers.

Psychotropic medications and the transition into care:a national data linkage study

Objectives
To determine whether excessive and often inappropriate or dangerous psychotropic drug dispensing to older adults is unique to care homes or is a continuation of community treatment.

Design
Population-based data-linkage study using prescription drug information.

Setting
Northern Ireland's national prescribing database and care home information from the national inspectorate.

Participants
Two hundred fifty thousand six hundred seventeen individuals aged 65 and older.

Measurements
Prescription information was extracted for all psychotropic drugs included in the British National Formulary (BNF) categories 4.1.1, 4.1.2, and 4.2.2 (hypnotics, anxiolytics, and antipsychotics) dispensed over the study period. Repeated cross-sectional analysis was used to monitor changes in psychotropic drug dispensing over time.

Results
Psychotropic drug use was higher in care homes than the community; 20.3% of those in care homes were dispensed an antipsychotic in January 2009, compared with 1.1% of those in the community. People who entered care had higher use of psychotropic medications before entry than those who did not enter care, but this increased sharply in the month of admission and continued to rise. Antipsychotic drug dispensing increased from 8.2% before entry to 18.6% after entering care (risk ratio (RR) = 2.26, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.96–2.59) and hypnotic drug dispensing from 14.8% to 26.3% (RR=1.78, 95% CI=1.61–1.96).

Conclusion
A continuation of high use before entry cannot wholly explain the higher dispensing of psychotropic drugs to individuals in care homes. Although drug dispensing is high in older people in the community, it increases dramatically on entry to care. Routine medicine reviews are necessary in older people and are especially important during transitions of care.

Job strain and the risk of severe asthma exacerbations: A meta-analysis of individual-participant data from 100 000 European men and women

Background: Many patients and healthcare professionals believe that work-related psychosocial stress, such as job strain, can make asthma worse, but this is not corroborated by empirical evidence. We investigated the associations between job strain and the incidence of severe asthma exacerbations in working-age European men and women. Methods: We analysed individual-level data, collected between 1985 and 2010, from 102 175 working-age men and women in 11 prospective European studies. Job strain (a combination of high demands and low control at work) was self-reported at baseline. Incident severe asthma exacerbations were ascertained from national hospitalization and death registries. Associations between job strain and asthma exacerbations were modelled using Cox regression and the study-specific findings combined using random-effects meta-analyses. Results: During a median follow-up of 10 years, 1 109 individuals experienced a severe asthma exacerbation (430 with asthma as the primary diagnostic code). In the age- and sex-adjusted analyses, job strain was associated with an increased risk of severe asthma exacerbations defined using the primary diagnostic code (hazard ratio, HR: 1.27, 95% confidence interval, CI: 1.00, 1.61). This association attenuated towards the null after adjustment for potential confounders (HR: 1.22, 95% CI: 0.96, 1.55). No association was observed in the analyses with asthma defined using any diagnostic code (HR: 1.01, 95% CI: 0.86, 1.19). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that job strain is probably not an important risk factor for severe asthma exacerbations leading to hospitalization or death.

Bereavement After Informal Caregiving: Assessing Mental Health Burden Using Linked Population Data

Methods. We linked prescription records for antidepressant and anxiolytic drugs to characteristics and life-event data of members of the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study (n = 317 264). Using a case-control design, we fitted logistic regression models, stratified by age, to model relative likelihood of mental health problems, using the proxy measures of mental health–related prescription.

Results. Both caregivers and bereaved individuals were estimated to be at between 20% and 50% greater risk for mental health problems than noncaregivers in similar circumstances (for bereaved working-age caregivers, odds ratio = 1.41; 95% confidence interval = 1.27, 1.56). For older people, there was no evidence of additional risk to bereaved caregivers, though there was for working-age people. Older people appeared to recover more quickly from caregiver bereavement.

High-dose therapy and autologous stem cell transplantation in first relapse for diffuse large B cell lymphoma in the rituximab era:an analysis based on data from the European Blood and Marrow Transplantation Registry

Autologous stem cell transplantation (ASCT) consolidation remains the treatment of choice for patients with relapsed diffuse large B cell lymphoma. The impact of rituximab combined with chemotherapy in either first- or second-line therapy on the ultimate results of ASCT remains to be determined, however. This study was designed to evaluate the benefit of ASCT in patients achieving a second complete remission after salvage chemotherapy by retrospectively comparing the disease-free survival (DFS) after ASCT for each patient with the duration of the first complete remission (CR1). Between 1990 and 2005, a total of 470 patients who had undergone ASCT and reported to the European Blood and Bone Transplantation Registry with Medical Essential Data Form B information were evaluated. Of these 470 patients, 351 (74%) had not received rituximab before ASCT, and 119 (25%) had received rituximab before ASCT. The median duration of CR1 was 11 months. The median time from diagnosis to ASCT was 24 months. The BEAM protocol was the most frequently used conditioning regimen (67%). After ASCT, the 5-year overall survival was 63% (95% confidence interval, 58%-67%) and 5-year DFS was 48% (95% confidence interval, 43%-53%) for the entire patient population. Statistical analysis showed a significant increase in DFS after ASCT compared with duration of CR1 (median, 51 months versus 11 months; P < .001). This difference was also highly significant for patients with previous exposure to rituximab (median, 10 months versus not reached; P < .001) and for patients who had experienced relapse before 1 year (median, 6 months versus 47 months; P < .001). Our data indicate that ASCT can significantly increase DFS compared with the duration of CR1 in relapsed diffuse large B cell lymphoma and can alter the disease course even in patients with high-risk disease previously treated with rituximab.

Serum estradiol: oocyte ratio as a predictor of reproductive outcome: an analysis of data from >9000 IVF cycles in the Republic of Ireland

Purpose The purpose of this study was to evaluate the serum estradiol (E2) per oocyte ratio (EOR) as a function of selected embryology events and reproductive outcomes with IVF. Methods This retrospective analysis included all IVF cycles where oocyte collection and fresh transfer occurred between January 2001 and November 2012 at a single institution. Patients were divided by three age groups (<35, 35–39, and ≥40 years) and further stratified into nine groups based on EOR (measured in pmol/L/oocyte). Terminal serum E2 (pmol/mL) was recorded on day of hCG trigger administration, and fertilization rate, cleavage rate, number of good quality embryos, and reproductive outcomes were recorded for each IVF cycle. Results During the study interval, 9109 oocyte retrievals were performed for 5499 IVF patients (mean = 1.7 cycles/patient). A total of 63.4 % of transfers were performed on day 3 (n = 4926), while 36.6 % were carried out on day 5 (n = 2843). Clinical pregnancy rates were highest in patients with EOR of 250–750 and declined as this ratio increased, independent of patient age. While the odds ratio (OR) for clinical pregnancy where EOR = 250–750 vs. EOR > 1500 was 3.4 (p < 0.001; 95 % CI 2.67–4.34), no statistically significant correlation was seen in fertilization, cleavage rates or number of good quality embryos as a function of EOR. Conclusions Predicting reproductive outcomes with IVF has great utility both for patients and providers. The former have the opportunity to build realistic expectations, and the latter are better able to counsel according to measured clinical parameters. A better understanding of follicular dynamics and ovarian response to gonadotropin stimulation could optimize IVF treatments going forward.

Subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk of heart failure events: an individual participant data analysis from 6 prospective cohorts.

BACKGROUND: American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines for the diagnosis and management of heart failure recommend investigating exacerbating conditions such as thyroid dysfunction, but without specifying the impact of different thyroid-stimulation hormone (TSH) levels. Limited prospective data exist on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and heart failure events. METHODS AND RESULTS: We performed a pooled analysis of individual participant data using all available prospective cohorts with thyroid function tests and subsequent follow-up of heart failure events. Individual data on 25 390 participants with 216 248 person-years of follow-up were supplied from 6 prospective cohorts in the United States and Europe. Euthyroidism was defined as TSH of 0.45 to 4.49 mIU/L, subclinical hypothyroidism as TSH of 4.5 to 19.9 mIU/L, and subclinical hyperthyroidism as TSH <0.45 mIU/L, the last two with normal free thyroxine levels. Among 25 390 participants, 2068 (8.1%) had subclinical hypothyroidism and 648 (2.6%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. In age- and sex-adjusted analyses, risks of heart failure events were increased with both higher and lower TSH levels (P for quadratic pattern <0.01); the hazard ratio was 1.01 (95% confidence interval, 0.81-1.26) for TSH of 4.5 to 6.9 mIU/L, 1.65 (95% confidence interval, 0.84-3.23) for TSH of 7.0 to 9.9 mIU/L, 1.86 (95% confidence interval, 1.27-2.72) for TSH of 10.0 to 19.9 mIU/L (P for trend <0.01) and 1.31 (95% confidence interval, 0.88-1.95) for TSH of 0.10 to 0.44 mIU/L and 1.94 (95% confidence interval, 1.01-3.72) for TSH <0.10 mIU/L (P for trend=0.047). Risks remained similar after adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors. CONCLUSION: Risks of heart failure events were increased with both higher and lower TSH levels, particularly for TSH ≥10 and <0.10 mIU/L.

Differing trends in the association between obesity and self-reported health in Portugal and Switzerland: data from national health surveys 1992-2007.

BACKGROUND: The escalating prevalence of obesity might prompt obese subjects to consider themselves as normal, as this condition is gradually becoming as frequent as normal weight. In this study, we aimed to assess the trends in the associations between obesity and self-rated health in two countries. METHODS: Data from the Portuguese (years 1995-6, 1998-6 and 2005-6) and Swiss (1992-3, 1997, 2002 and 2007) National Health Surveys were used, corresponding to more than 130,000 adults (64,793 for Portugal and 65,829 for Switzerland). Body mass index and self-rated health were derived from self-reported data. RESULTS: Obesity levels were higher in Portugal (17.5% in 2005-6 vs. 8.9% in 2007 in Switzerland, p < 0.001) and increased in both countries. The prevalence of participants rating their health as "bad" or "very bad" was higher in Portugal than in Switzerland (21.8% in 2005-6 vs 3.9% in 2007, p < 0.001). In both countries, obese participants rated more frequently their health as "bad" or "very bad" than participants with regular weight. In Switzerland, the prevalence of "bad" or "very bad" rates among obese participants, increased from 6.5% in 1992-3 to 9.8% in 2007, while in Portugal it decreased from 41.3% to 32.3%. After multivariate adjustment, the odds ratio (OR) of stating one self's health as "bad" or "very bad" among obese relative to normal weight participants, almost doubled in Switzerland: from 1.38 (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.01-1.87) in 1992-3 to 2.64 (95% CI: 2.14-3.26) in 2007, and similar findings were obtained after sample weighting. Conversely, no such trend was found in Portugal: 1.35 (95% CI: 1.23-1.48) in 1995-6 and 1.52 (95% CI: 1.37-1.70) in 2005-6. CONCLUSION: Obesity is increasing in Switzerland and Portugal. Obesity is increasingly associated with poorer self-health ratings in Switzerland but not in Portugal.