Exploiting satellite-based rainfall for weather index insurance: the challenges of spatial and temporal aggregation

Lack of access to insurance exacerbates the impact of climate variability on smallholder famers in Africa. Unlike traditional insurance, which compensates proven agricultural losses, weather index insurance (WII) pays out in the event that a weather index is breached. In principle, WII could be provided to farmers throughout Africa. There are two data-related hurdles to this. First, most farmers do not live close enough to a rain gauge with sufficiently long record of observations. Second, mismatches between weather indices and yield may expose farmers to uncompensated losses, and insurers to unfair payouts – a phenomenon known as basis risk. In essence, basis risk results from complexities in the progression from meteorological drought (rainfall deficit) to agricultural drought (low soil moisture). In this study, we use a land-surface model to describe the transition from meteorological to agricultural drought. We demonstrate that spatial and temporal aggregation of rainfall results in a clearer link with soil moisture, and hence a reduction in basis risk. We then use an advanced statistical method to show how optimal aggregation of satellite-based rainfall estimates can reduce basis risk, enabling remotely sensed data to be utilized robustly for WII.

Efficient solutions to robust, semi-implicit discretizations of the immersed boundary method

The immersed boundary method is a versatile tool for the investigation of flow-structure interaction. In a large number of applications, the immersed boundaries or structures are very stiff and strong tangential forces on these interfaces induce a well-known, severe time-step restriction for explicit discretizations. This excessive stability constraint can be removed with fully implicit or suitable semi-implicit schemes but at a seemingly prohibitive computational cost. While economical alternatives have been proposed recently for some special cases, there is a practical need for a computationally efficient approach that can be applied more broadly. In this context, we revisit a robust semi-implicit discretization introduced by Peskin in the late 1970s which has received renewed attention recently. This discretization, in which the spreading and interpolation operators are lagged. leads to a linear system of equations for the inter-face configuration at the future time, when the interfacial force is linear. However, this linear system is large and dense and thus it is challenging to streamline its solution. Moreover, while the same linear system or one of similar structure could potentially be used in Newton-type iterations, nonlinear and highly stiff immersed structures pose additional challenges to iterative methods. In this work, we address these problems and propose cost-effective computational strategies for solving Peskin`s lagged-operators type of discretization. We do this by first constructing a sufficiently accurate approximation to the system`s matrix and we obtain a rigorous estimate for this approximation. This matrix is expeditiously computed by using a combination of pre-calculated values and interpolation. The availability of a matrix allows for more efficient matrix-vector products and facilitates the design of effective iterative schemes. We propose efficient iterative approaches to deal with both linear and nonlinear interfacial forces and simple or complex immersed structures with tethered or untethered points. One of these iterative approaches employs a splitting in which we first solve a linear problem for the interfacial force and then we use a nonlinear iteration to find the interface configuration corresponding to this force. We demonstrate that the proposed approach is several orders of magnitude more efficient than the standard explicit method. In addition to considering the standard elliptical drop test case, we show both the robustness and efficacy of the proposed methodology with a 2D model of a heart valve. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

New classes of spatial central configurations for the n+3-body problem

In this paper, we show the existence of new families of spatial central configurations for the n + 3-body problem, n >= 3. We study spatial central configurations where n bodies are at the vertices of a regular n-gon T and the other three bodies are symmetrically located on the straight line that is perpendicular to the plane that contains T and passes through the center of T. The results have simple and analytic proofs. (c) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

GPS receivers for georeferencing of spatial variability of soil attributes

A caracterização da variabilidade espacial dos atributos do solo é indispensável para subsidiar práticas agrícolas de maneira sustentável. A utilização da geoestatística para caracterizar a variabilidade espacial desses atributos, como a resistência mecânica do solo à penetração (RP) e a umidade gravimétrica do solo (UG), é, hoje, prática usual na agricultura de precisão. O resultado da análise geoestatística é dependente da densidade amostral e de outros fatores, como o método de georreferencimento utilizado. Desta forma, o presente trabalho teve como objetivo comparar dois métodos de georreferenciamento para a caracterização da variabilidade espacial da RP e da UG, bem como a correlação espacial dessas variáveis. Foi implantada uma malha amostral de 60 pontos, espaçados em 20 m. Para as medições da RP, utilizou-se de penetrógrafo eletrônico e, para a determinação da UG, utilizou-se de trado holandês (profundidade de 0,0-0,1 m). As amostras foram georreferenciadas, utilizando-se do método de Posicionamento por Ponto Simples (PPS), com de (retirar) receptor GPS de navegação, e Posicionamento Relativo Semicinemático, com receptor GPS geodésico L1. Os resultados indicaram que o georreferenciamento realizado pelo PPS não interferiu na caracterização da variabilidade espacial da RP e da UG, assim como na estrutura espacial da relação dos atributos.

Gas exchange rates at different vapor pressure deficits and water relations of 'Pera' sweet orange plants with citrus variegated chlorosis (CVC)

Net photosynthesis (A) and transpiration rates (E), stomatal conductance (g), water use efficiency (WUE), intrinsic water use efficiency (IWUE) and internal leaf CO2 concentration (C) in response to different vapor pressure deficit (1.2 and 2.5 kPa) were investigated in 'Pera' sweet orange plants affected by citrus variegated chlorosis (CVC), a disease caused by Xylella fastidiosa. All plants were well watered and leaf water potential (Pw) was also measured by the psychrometric technique. Results showed that healthy plants responded to higher vapor pressure deficit (VPD), lowering its net photosynthesis and transpiration rates, and stomatal conductance. However, diseased plants presented no clear response to VPD, showing lower A, E and g for both VPDs studied and very similar values to these variables in healthy plants at the highest VPD. Internal leaf CO2 concentration also decreased for healthy plants when under the highest VPD, and surprisingly, the same pattern of response was found in plants with CVC. These results, the lower Psi(w) and higher WUE values for diseased plants, indicated that this disease may cause stomatal dysfunction and affect the water resistance through xylem vessels, which ultimately may play some role in photosynthetic metabolism. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. B.V. All rights reserved.

Possible causes of spatial variability in Diatraea saccharalis Fabr. (Lep., Crambidae) and its parasitoid populations in sugarcane fields in Brazil

Based on the large data set stored in some sugarcane mills regarding the biological control programme of Diatraea saccharalis using the parasitoids Cotesia flavipes and tachinid flies, the aim of the present study was to determine whether sugarcane varieties, number of cuts and plant ages are major determinants in promoting spatial variability in D. saccharalis, C. flavipes and tachinid fly populations in sugarcane fields in the state of São Paulo (Brazil). The data set used to support this study was provided by the Sao Joao and Barra sugarcane mills. Coefficient of variation was adopted as a measure of the spatial variability of population density. Spatial variability was estimated for the total density of D. saecharalis (parasitized + unparasitized larvae), and also for D. saccharalis larvae parasitized by tachinids and by C. flavipes. Statistical analysis revealed that the spatial variation in D. saccharalis populations was influenced by the number of cuts and by plant ages in the Barra and Sao Joao Mills, respectively. Similar results were obtained for D. saccharalis larvae parasitized by tachinids; however, in the Sao Joao Mill, the spatial variability of these populations was also influenced by the different number of varieties. Finally, considering D. saccharalis larvae parasitized by C. flavipes, no significant regressions with any of the three categories were observed for both sugarcane mills. The multitrophic implications for this agricultural system are also discussed.

Patterns of spatial distribution in macroalgal communities from tropical lotic ecosystems

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

CO2 assimilation, photosynthetic light response curves, and water relations of 'Pêra' sweet orange plants infected with Xylella fastidiosa

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Uncertainties in the prediction of spatial variability of soil CO2 emissions and related properties

A emissão de CO2 do solo apresenta alta variabilidade espacial, devido à grande dependência espacial observada nas propriedades do solo que a influenciam. Neste estudo, objetivou-se: caracterizar e relacionar a variabilidade espacial da respiração do solo e propriedades relacionadas; avaliar a acurácia dos resultados fornecidos pelo método da krigagem ordinária e simulação sequencial gaussiana; e avaliar a incerteza na predição da variabilidade espacial da emissão de CO2 do solo e demais propriedades utilizando a simulação sequencial gaussiana. O estudo foi conduzido em uma malha amostral irregular com 141 pontos, instalada sobre a cultura de cana-de-açúcar. Nesses pontos foram avaliados a emissão de CO2 do solo, a temperatura do solo, a porosidade livre de água, o teor de matéria orgânica e a densidade do solo. Todas as variáveis apresentaram estrutura de dependência espacial. A emissão de CO2 do solo mostrou correlações positivas com a matéria orgânica (r = 0,25, p < 0,05) e a porosidade livre de água (r = 0,27, p <0,01) e negativa com a densidade do solo (r = -0,41, p < 0,01). No entanto, quando os valores estimados espacialmente (N=8833) são considerados, a porosidade livre de água passa a ser a principal variável responsável pelas características espaciais da respiração do solo, apresentando correlação de 0,26 (p < 0,01). As simulações individuais propiciaram, para todas as variáveis analisadas, melhor reprodução das funções de distribuição acumuladas e dos variogramas, em comparação à krigagem e estimativa E-type. As maiores incertezas na predição da emissão de CO2 estiveram associadas às regiões da área estudada com maiores valores observados e estimados, produzindo estimativas, ao longo do período estudado, de 0,18 a 1,85 t CO2 ha-1, dependendo dos diferentes cenários simulados. O conhecimento das incertezas gerado por meio dos diferentes cenários de estimativa pode ser incluído em inventários de gases do efeito estufa, resultando em estimativas mais conservadoras do potencial de emissão desses gases.

The role of spatial and temporal descriptors for neotropical tadpole communities in southern Brazil

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Honey Ants (Genus Myrmecocystus) Macroecology: Effect of Spatial Patterns on the Relationship between Worker Body Size and Geographic Range Size

Macroecology evaluates the partitioning of physical space and resources among organisms through correlation among ecological variables, such as geographical range size and shape, body size, and population density, measured at large geographical and taxonomic scales. In this article, we analyzed the spatial patterns in worker body size and geographic range size for the 27 described species of honey ants, genus Myrmecocystus Wesmael, in the United States and Mexico, and especially the relationship between these 2 variables after statistically removing their spatial patterns. The 2 variables are correlated, but also displayed significant spatial patterns, as detected by trend surface and spatial autocorrelation analyses. After removing these spatial effects, worker body size and geographic range size were still positively correlated. The relationship, therefore, is not a consequence of spatial effects and it does follow Brown's model, which predicts that the geographic range size will have a positive slope on body size. In this model, the lower population densities caused by foraging activities and local territorial competition are associated with a large geographic range, avoiding stochastic extinction. Although this constraint in local population density does not necessarily hold for small organisms such as insects that could achieve high densities even in very small areas and patchy habitats, it may hold for social insects, especially ants, because of the local competition among colonies.