Assessing individual risk attitudes using field data from lottery games

We use information from the television game show with the highest guaranteed average payoff in the United States, Hoosier Millionaire, to analyze risktaking in a high-stakes experiment. We characterize gambling decisions under alternative assumptions about contestant behavior and preferences, and derive testable restrictions on individual risk attitudes based on this characterization. We then use an extensive sample of gambling decisions to estimate distributions of risk-aversion parameters consistent with the theoretical restrictions and revealed preferences. We find that although most contestants display risk-averse preferences, the extent of the risk aversion implied by our estimates varies substantially with the stakes involved in the different decisions.

Feasibility of a Clinical Chemical Analysis Approach to Predict Misuse of Growth Promoting Hormones in Cattle

A study was performed to determine if targeted metabolic profiling of cattle sera could be used to establish a predictive tool for identifying hormone misuse in cattle. Metabolites were assayed in heifers (n ) 5) treated with nortestosterone decanoate (0.85 mg/kg body weight), untreated heifers (n ) 5), steers (n ) 5) treated with oestradiol benzoate (0.15 mg/kg body weight) and untreated steers (n ) 5). Treatments were administered on days 0, 14, and 28 throughout a 42 day study period. Two support vector machines (SVMs) were trained, respectively, from heifer and steer data to identify hormonetreated animals. Performance of both SVM classifiers were evaluated by sensitivity and specificity of treatment prediction. The SVM trained on steer data achieved 97.33% sensitivity and 93.85% specificity while the one on heifer data achieved 94.67% sensitivity and 87.69% specificity. Solutions of SVM classifiers were further exploited to determine those days when classification accuracy of the SVM was most reliable. For heifers and steers, days 17-35 were determined to be the most selective. In summary, bioinformatics applied to targeted metabolic profiles generated from standard clinical chemistry analyses, has yielded an accurate, inexpensive, high-throughput test for predicting steroid abuse in cattle.

Children’s perceptions of primary science assessment in England and Wales

This study builds on and contributes to work on assessment of children in primary school, particularly in science. Previous research has examined primary science assessment from different standpoints, but no studies have speci?cally addressed children’s perspectives. This article provides additional insight into issues surrounding children’s assessment in primary school and how the assessment of science might develop in England after the science SATs (Standard Assessment Tests) were abolished in 2009. Some research suggests that primary science assessment via SATs is a major reason for the observed decline in children’s engagement with science in upper primary and lower secondary school. The analytic focus on engaging children as coresearchers to assist in the process of gathering informed views and interpreting ?ndings from a large sample of children’s views enables another contribution. The study, based on a survey of 1000 children in primary and secondary schools in England and Wales, reveals that despite being assessed under two different regimes (high-stakes national tests in England and moderated teacher assessment in Wales), children’s views of science assessment are remarkably consistent. Most appreciate the usefulness of science assessment and value frequent, non-SATs testing for monitoring/improving science progress. There was a largely negative impact, however, of science
assessment on children’s well-being, particularly due to stress. The paper demonstrates that children provide an important perspective on assessment and that including their views can improve policy-making in relation to primary science assessment.

A quantum measurement paradigm for educational predicates: Implications for validity in educational measurement

The outcomes of educational assessments undoubtedly have real implications for students, teachers, schools and education in the widest sense. Assessment results are, for example, used to award qualifications that determine future educational or vocational pathways of students. The results obtained by students in assessments are also used to gauge individual teacher quality, to hold schools to account for the standards achieved by their students, and to compare international education systems. Given the current high-stakes nature of educational assessment, it is imperative that the measurement practices involved have stable philosophical foundations. However, this paper casts doubt on the theoretical underpinnings of contemporary educational measurement models. Aspects of Wittgenstein’s later philosophy and Bohr’s philosophy of quantum theory are used to argue that a quantum theoretical rather than a Newtonian model is appropriate for educational measurement, and the associated implications for the concept of validity are elucidated. Whilst it is acknowledged that the transition to a quantum theoretical framework would not lead to the demise of educational assessment, it is argued that, where practical, current high-stakes assessments should be reformed to become as ‘low-stakes’ as possible. The paper also undermines some of the pro high-stakes testing rhetoric that has a tendency to afflict education.

Risk-aware Planning in BDI Agents

The ability of an autonomous agent to select rational actions is vital in enabling it to achieve its goals. To do so effectively in a high-stakes setting, the agent must be capable of considering the risk and potential reward of both immediate and future actions. In this paper we provide a novel method for calculating risk alongside utility in online planning algorithms. We integrate such a risk-aware planner with a BDI agent, allowing us to build agents that can set their risk aversion levels dynamically based on their changing beliefs about the environment. To guide the design of a risk-aware agent we propose a number of principles which such an agent should adhere to and show how our proposed framework satisfies these principles. Finally, we evaluate our approach and demonstrate that a dynamically risk-averse agent is capable of achieving a higher success rate than an agent that ignores risk, while obtaining a higher utility than an agent with a static risk attitude.

The effects of temperature on nickel tocicity in goldfish (carassius auratus L.)

Although it is widely assumed that temperature affects pollutant toxicity, few studies have actually investigated this relationship. Moreover, such research as has been done has involved constant temperatures; circumstances which are rarely, if ever, actually experienced by north temperate, littoral zone cyprinid species. To investigate the effects of temperature regime on nickel toxicity in goldfish (Carassius auratus L.), 96- and 240-h LCSO values for the heavy metal pollutant, nickel (NiCI2.6H20), were initially determined at 2DoC (22.8 mg/L and 14.7 mg/L in artificially softened water). Constant temperature bioassays at 10°C, 20°C and 30°C were conducted at each of 0, 240-h and 96-h LCSO nickel concentrations for 240 hours. In order to determine the effects of temperature variation during nickel exposure it was imperative that the effects of a single temperature change be investigated before addressing more complex regimes. Single temperature changes of + 10°C or -10°C were imposed at rates of 2°C/h following exposures of between 24 hand 216 h. The effects of a single temperature change on mortality, and duration of toxicant exposure at high and low temperatures were evaluated. The effects of fluctuating temperatures during exposure were investigated through two regimes. The first set of bioassays imposed a sinewave diurnal cycle temperature (20.±.1DOC) throughout the 10 day exposure to 240-h LeSO Ni. The second set of investigations approximated cyprinid movement through the littoral zone by imposing directionally random temperature changes (±2°C at 2-h intervals), between extremes of 10° and 30°C, at 240-h LC50 Ni. Body size (i.e., total length, fork length, and weight) and exposure time were recorded for all fish mortalities. Cumulative mortality curves under constant temperature regimes indicated significantly higher mortality as temperature and nickel concentration were increased. At 1DOC no significant differences in mortality curves were evident in relation to low and high nickel test concentrations (Le., 16 mg/L and 20 mg/L). However at 20°C and 30°C significantly higher mortality was experienced in animals exposed to 20 mg/L Ni. Mortality at constant 10°C was significantly lower than at 30°C with 16 mg/L and was significantly loWer than each of 2DoC and 39°C tanks at 20 mg/L Ni exposure. A single temperature shift from 20°C to 1DoC resulted in a significant decrease in mortality rate and conversely, a single temperature shift from 20°C to 30°C resulted in a significant increase in mortality rate. Rates of mortality recorded during these single temperature shift assays were significantly different from mortality rates obtained under constant temperature assay conditions. Increased Ni exposure duration at higher temperatures resulted in highest mortality. Diurnally cycling temperature bioassays produced cumulative mortality curves approximating constant 20°C curves, with increased mortality evident after peaks in the temperature cycle. Randomly fluctuating temperature regime mortality curves also resembled constant 20°C tanks with mortalities after high temperature exposures (25°C - 30°C). Some test animals survived in all assays with the exception of the 30°C assays, with highest survival associated with low temperature and low Ni concentration. Post-exposure mortality occurred most frequently in individuals which had experienced high Ni concentrations and high temperatures during assays. Additional temperature stress imposed 2 - 12 weeks post exposure resulted in a single death out of 116 individuals suggesting that survivors are capable of surviving subsequent temperature stresses. These investigations suggest that temperature significantly and markedly affects acute nickel toxicity under both constant and fluctuating temperature regimes and plays a role in post exposure mortality and subsequent stress response.

A Shift in Role: The Perspectives of Ontario Secondary Principals Working in Data-Driven Environments

This study occurred in 2009 and questioned how Ontario secondary school principals perceived their role had changed, over a 7 year period, in response to the increased demands of data-driven school environments. Specifically, it sought to identify principals' perceptions on how high-stakes testing and data-driven environments had affected their role, tasks, and accountability responsibilities. This study contextualized the emergence of the Education Quality and Accountability Offices (EQAO) as a central influence in the creation of data-driven school environments, and conceptualized the role of the principal as using data to inform and persuade a shift in thinking about the use of data to improve instruction and student achievement. The findings of the study suggest that data-driven environments had helped principals reclaim their positional power as instructional leaders, using data as an avenue back into the classroom. The use of data shifted the responsibilities of the principal to persuade teachers to work collaboratively to improve classroom instruction in order to demonstrate accountability.

Can Ontario Be the Next Finland? Assessing Whether the Finnish Model Can Meet the Educational Needs of Ontario, Canada

This study examines the adaptability of the Finland model to meet the educational disparities currently observed in the education system in Ontario, Canada. A literature review and a database highlight key characteristics of the Finland model. From this information, Finland and Ontario’s systems are found to be similar in the areas of systemic structure and educational philosophies, and international testing and performance standards. The systems are found to be different in the areas of geography and demographics, social perceptions and attitudes towards education, school system structure, teaching philosophies, teacher education and professional status, and standardized and high-stakes testing. Discussion regarding use of Finnish philosophies to meet Ontario’s needs in the following areas takes place: social perceptions and attitudes towards education, our teaching philosophies, our teacher education and professional status, and our use of high-stakes and standardized testing. Opportunities for future research are also discussed and the major research paper includes a workshop and survey.

Physiopathologie du diabète secondaire à la fibrose kystique : études transversales et prospectives

Résumé L’augmentation de l’espérance de vie chez les patients atteints de fibrose kystique (FK) entraine une augmentation de la prévalence des anomalies de tolérance au glucose, soit l’intolérance au glucose (IGT) et le diabète (DAFK). En dépit du fait, que les anomalies de la tolérance au glucose soient associées à un mauvais prognostic, l’origine de ces troubles n’est pas encore clairement établie. Notre objectif était d’examiner le rôle de l’insulinopénie et de la résistance à l’insuline dans la détérioration de la tolérance au glucose dans une cohorte prospective observationelle patients FK non diabétique. Nos résultats démontrent une réduction marquée de la phase précoce de la sécrétion de l’insuline ainsi qu’une augmentation de l’aire sous la courbe de la glycémie (AUC) chez tous les groupes de patients. Nous avons aussi démontré qu’une variation de la sensibilité à l’insuline joue un rôle prépondérant dans les changements de catégorie de tolérance au glucose dans cette population. Finalement, il semblerait que l’augmentation de l’AUC du glucose et la réduction de la phase précose de la sécrétion d’insuline sont des meileurs prédicateurs du status clinique que les catégories de tolérance au glucose. Il existe plusieurs indices pour évaluer la sécrétion d’insuline et pourtant aucun n’a été validé chez les patients FK. Nous avons examiné la validité des index de la sécrétion de l’insuline dérivés de l’hyperglycémie provoquée par voie orale (HGPO) ainsi que des valeurs à jeun par rapport au test de référence. Alors que la plupart des index calculés à partir de l’HGPO corrèlent significativement avec les valeurs du test de référence, cela n’est pas le cas pour les index calculés à partir des valeurs à jeun. La validation de ces index nous permet d’évaluer la sécrétion de l’insuline prospectivement dans notre cohorte de FK à partir de l’HGPO, est un test recommandé pour le dépistage du DAFK. Les recommandations nutritionnelles suggèrent aux patients FK une diète comprenant environ 40% de lipides afin d’éviter la malnutrition. Nous avons examiné le profil lipidique des patients FK diabétiques et non diabétiques après une HGPO et un repas hyperlipidique (RT). Nos résultats démontrent que la FK est associée à des augmentations de l’excursion glycémique lors de l’HGPO ou d’un RT comparativement aux témoins. Cependant, le RT provoque 1) une plus faible excursion glycémique comparativement à l’HGPO ; 2) une meilleure suppression de la production hépatique de glucose et 3) l’excursion lipidique postprandiale des patients FK reste normale. Il est donc peu probable que les anomalies de la sécrétion de l’insuline par les cellules  soient secondaires à une lipotoxicité. Nous avons aussi examiné les taux d’adiponectine, une hormone sécrétée par le tissu adipeux et pouvant moduler l’action de l’insuline. Les niveaux d’adiponectine corrèlent négativement avec plusieurs facteurs présents chez les patients FK incluant l’IGT, l’inflammation et une adiposité centrale en dépit d'un faible poids corporel. Les patients FK ne présentaient aucune altération des taux d’adiponectine malgré la présence d’une résistance à l’insuline, une inflammation sub-clinique et de l’IGT. La FK apparaît donc comme une condition où il existe une discordance entre les taux d’adiponectine et la résistance à l’insuline ou l’inflammation. En conclusion la prévalence de l’IGT est élevée dans cette population caractérisée par une excursion glycémique anormalement plus élevée, due principalement à une altération de la sécrétion de l’insuline exacerbée par une résistance à l’insuline. Mots clés : Adiponectine, Hyperglycémie par voie oral (HGPO), intolérance au glucose, fibrose kystique, diabète, résistance à l’insuline, sécrétion de l’insuline.

Análisis de los factores políticos que incidieron en la participación de los partidos kurdos PDK y UPK en la guerra de Irak 2003–2009

Este estudio de caso se enfoca en identificar cuales fueron los factores que motivaron la participación de los partidos kurdos PDK y UPK en la invasión a Irak 2003 – 2009. Con base en los supuestos teóricos de autores realistas K.Waltz, M. Ayoob y liberales y R. Keohane y J. Nye, se estudian las dinámicas y las interacciones que permitieron establecer un acercamiento con los Estados Unidos con un énfasis específico en los intereses políticos de los partidos kurdos. El kurdistán iraquí llega a ser el área clave para el acercamiento de la potencia a la zona y los intereses políticos permitieron establecer un escenario de cooperación e interdependencia, incrementando tanto la participación como la autonomía de los kurdos en las dinámicas del país y de la región.

One size fits all: the increasing standardisation of English teachers' work in England

English teachers in England have experienced a lengthy period of external constraint, increasingly controlling their practice. This constraint was originated in the 1989 National curriculum. Although in its first version it was in harmony with practice, its numerous revisions have moved it a long way from teachers’ own values and beliefs. This move is illustrated through research into the teaching of literature, which is seen by English teachers as often arid and driven by examinations alone. This period has been increasingly dominated by high-stakes testing, school league tables and frequent school inspections. Another powerful element has been the introduction of Standards for teachers at every career level from student teachers to the Advanced Skills Teachers. Research demonstrates that this introduction of Standards has had some beneficial effects. However, research also shows that the government decision to replace all these, hierarchically structured standards, with a single standard is seen by many teachers as a retrograde step. Evidence from Advanced Skills Teachers of English shows that the government’s additional proposal to bring in a Master Teacher standard is equally problematic. The decline of the National Association for the Teaching of English, the key subject association for English teachers, is discussed in relation to this increasingly negative and constraining environment, concluding that many English teachers are choosing a form of local resistance which, while understandable, weakens the credibility of the profession and erodes the influence of its key voice, NATE.

The lottery-panel task for bi-dimensional parameter-free elicitation of risk attitudes

We propose first, a simple task for the eliciting attitudes toward risky choice, the SGG lottery-panel task, which consists in a series of lotteries constructed to compensate riskier options with higher risk-return trade-offs. Using Principal Component Analysis technique, we show that the SGG lottery-panel task is capable of capturing two dimensions of individual risky decision making i.e. subjects’ average risk taking and their sensitivity towards variations in risk-return. From the results of a large experimental dataset, we confirm that the task systematically captures a number of regularities such as: A tendency to risk averse behavior (only around 10% of choices are compatible with risk neutrality); An attraction to certain payoffs compared to low risk lotteries, compatible with over-(under-) weighting of small (large) probabilities predicted in PT and; Gender differences, i.e. males being consistently less risk averse than females but both genders being similarly responsive to the increases in risk-premium. Another interesting result is that in hypothetical choices most individuals increase their risk taking responding to the increase in return to risk, as predicted by PT, while across panels with real rewards we see even more changes, but opposite to the expected pattern of riskier choices for higher risk-returns. Therefore, we conclude from our data that an “economic anomaly” emerges in the real reward choices opposite to the hypothetical choices. These findings are in line with Camerer's (1995) view that although in many domains, paid subjects probably do exert extra mental effort which improves their performance, choice over money gambles is not likely to be a domain in which effort will improve adherence to rational axioms (p. 635). Finally, we demonstrate that both dimensions of risk attitudes, average risk taking and sensitivity towards variations in the return to risk, are desirable not only to describe behavior under risk but also to explain behavior in other contexts, as illustrated by an example. In the second study, we propose three additional treatments intended to elicit risk attitudes under high stakes and mixed outcome (gains and losses) lotteries. Using a dataset obtained from a hypothetical implementation of the tasks we show that the new treatments are able to capture both dimensions of risk attitudes. This new dataset allows us to describe several regularities, both at the aggregate and within-subjects level. We find that in every treatment over 70% of choices show some degree of risk aversion and only between 0.6% and 15.3% of individuals are consistently risk neutral within the same treatment. We also confirm the existence of gender differences in the degree of risk taking, that is, in all treatments females prefer safer lotteries compared to males. Regarding our second dimension of risk attitudes we observe, in all treatments, an increase in risk taking in response to risk premium increases. Treatment comparisons reveal other regularities, such as a lower degree of risk taking in large stake treatments compared to low stake treatments and a lower degree of risk taking when losses are incorporated into the large stake lotteries. Results that are compatible with previous findings in the literature, for stake size effects (e.g., Binswanger, 1980; Antoni Bosch-Domènech & Silvestre, 1999; Hogarth & Einhorn, 1990; Holt & Laury, 2002; Kachelmeier & Shehata, 1992; Kühberger et al., 1999; B. J. Weber & Chapman, 2005; Wik et al., 2007) and domain effect (e.g., Brooks and Zank, 2005, Schoemaker, 1990, Wik et al., 2007). Whereas for small stake treatments, we find that the effect of incorporating losses into the outcomes is not so clear. At the aggregate level an increase in risk taking is observed, but also more dispersion in the choices, whilst at the within-subjects level the effect weakens. Finally, regarding responses to risk premium, we find that compared to only gains treatments sensitivity is lower in the mixed lotteries treatments (SL and LL). In general sensitivity to risk-return is more affected by the domain than the stake size. After having described the properties of risk attitudes as captured by the SGG risk elicitation task and its three new versions, it is important to recall that the danger of using unidimensional descriptions of risk attitudes goes beyond the incompatibility with modern economic theories like PT, CPT etc., all of which call for tests with multiple degrees of freedom. Being faithful to this recommendation, the contribution of this essay is an empirically and endogenously determined bi-dimensional specification of risk attitudes, useful to describe behavior under uncertainty and to explain behavior in other contexts. Hopefully, this will contribute to create large datasets containing a multidimensional description of individual risk attitudes, while at the same time allowing for a robust context, compatible with present and even future more complex descriptions of human attitudes towards risk.

The carbon dioxide production rate assumption biases gastric emptying parameters in healthy adults

RATIONALE: An altered gastric emptying (GE) rate has been implicated in the aetiology of obesity. The (13)C-octanoic acid breath test (OBT) is frequently used to measure GE, and the cumulative percentage of (13)C recovered (cPDR) is a common outcome measure. However, true cPDR in breath is dependent on accurate measurement of carbon dioxide production rate (VCO(2)). The current study aimed to quantify differences in the (13)C OBT results obtained using directly measured VCO(2) (VCO(2DM)) compared with (i) predicted from resting VCO(2) (VCO(2PR)) and (ii) predicted from body surface area VCO(2) (VCO(2BSA)). METHODS: The GE rate of a high-fat test meal was assessed in 27 lean subjects using the OBT. Breath samples were gathered during the fasted state and at regular intervals throughout the 6-h postprandial period for determination of (13)C-isotopic enrichment by continuous-flow isotope-ratio mass spectrometry. The VCO(2) was measured directly from exhaled air samples and the PDR calculated by three methods. The bias and the limits of agreement were calculated using Bland-Altman plots. RESULTS: Compared with the VCO(2DM), the cPDR was underestimated by VCO(2PR) (4.8%; p = 0.0001) and VCO(2BSA) (2.7%; p = 0.02). The GE T(half) was underestimated by VCO(2PR) (13 min; p = 0.0001) and VCO(2BSA) (10 min; p = 0.01), compared with VCO(2DM). CONCLUSIONS: The findings highlight the importance of directly measuring VCO(2)production rates throughout the (13)C OBT and could partly explain the conflicting evidence regarding the effect of obesity on GE rates.

Incentive effects on risk attitude in small probability prospects

We report between-subject results on the effect of monetary stakes on risk attitudes. While we find the typical risk seeking for small probabilities, risk seeking is reduced under high stakes. This suggests that utility is not consistently concave.

My generation(s): cycles, branding and renewal in E4’s 'Skins'

In an era of fragmenting audience and diversified viewing platforms, youth television needs to move fast and make a lot of noise in order to capture and maintain the attention of the teenage viewer. British ensemble youth drama Skins (E4, 2007-2013) calls attention to itself with its high doses of drugs, chaotic parties and casual attitudes towards sexuality. It also moves quickly, shedding its cast every two seasons as they graduate from school, then renewing itself with a fresh generation of 16 year old characters - three cycles in total. This essay will explore the challenges of maintaining audience connections whilst resetting the narrative clock with each cycle. I suggest that the development of the Skins brand was key to the programme’s success. Branding is particularly important for an audience demographic who increasingly consume their television outside of broadcast flow and essential for a programme which renews its cast every two years. The Skins brand operate as a framework, as the central audience draw, have the strength to maintain audience connections when it ‘graduates’ those characters they identify with at the close of each cycle and starts again from scratch. This essay will explore how the Skins brand constructs a cohesive identity across its multiple generations, yet also consider how the cyclic form poses challenges for the programme’s representations and narratives. This cyclic form allows Skins to repeatedly reach out to a new audience who comes of age alongside each new generation and to reflect shifts in British youth culture. Thus Skins remains ever-youthful, seeking to maintain an at times painfully hip identity. Yet the programme has a somewhat schizophrenic identity, torn between its roots in British realist drama and surrealist comedy and an escapist aspirational glamour that shows the influence of US Teen TV. This combination results in a tendency towards a heightened melodrama at odds with Skins claims for authenticity - its much vaunted teenage advisors and young writers - with the cyclic structure serving to amplify the programme’s excessive tendencies. Each cycle wrestles with a need for continuity and familiarity - partly maintained through brand, aesthetic and setting - yet a desire for freshness and originality, to assert difference from what has gone before. I suggest that the inevitable need for each cycle to ‘top’ what has gone before results in a move away from character-based intimacy and the everyday to high-stakes drama and violence which sits uncomfortably within British youth television.