Assessing individual risk attitudes using field data from lottery games

We use information from the television game show with the highest guaranteed average payoff in the United States, Hoosier Millionaire, to analyze risktaking in a high-stakes experiment. We characterize gambling decisions under alternative assumptions about contestant behavior and preferences, and derive testable restrictions on individual risk attitudes based on this characterization. We then use an extensive sample of gambling decisions to estimate distributions of risk-aversion parameters consistent with the theoretical restrictions and revealed preferences. We find that although most contestants display risk-averse preferences, the extent of the risk aversion implied by our estimates varies substantially with the stakes involved in the different decisions.

Assessing the sensitivity of blue mussel beds to pressures associated with human activities.

The Joint Nature Conservation Committee (JNCC) commissioned this project to generate an improved understanding of the sensitivities of blue mussel (Mytilus edulis) beds, found in UK waters, to pressures associated with human activities in the marine environment. The work will provide an evidence base that will facilitate and support management advice for Marine Protected Areas, development of UK marine monitoring and assessment, and conservation advice to offshore marine industries. Blue mussel beds are identified as a Habitat of Principle Importance (HPI) under the Natural Environment and Rural Communities (NERC) Act 2006, as a Priority Marine Feature (PMF) under the Marine (Scotland) Act 2010, and included on the OSPAR (Annex V) list of threatened and declining species and habitats. The purpose of this project was to produce sensitivity assessments for the blue mussel biotopes included within the HPI, PMF and OSPAR habitat definitions, and clearly document the supporting evidence behind the assessments and any differences between them. A total of 20 pressures falling in five categories - biological, hydrological, physical damage, physical loss, and pollution and other chemical changes - were assessed in this report. The review examined seven blue mussel bed biotopes found on littoral sediment and sublittoral rock and sediment. The assessments were based on the sensitivity of M. edulis rather than associated species, as M. edulis was considered the most important characteristic species in blue mussel beds. To develop each sensitivity assessment, the resistance and resilience of the key elements are assessed against the pressure benchmark using the available evidence gathered in this review. The benchmarks were designed to provide a ‘standard’ level of pressure against which to assess sensitivity. Blue mussel beds were highly sensitive to a few human activities: • introduction or spread of non-indigenous species (NIS); • habitat structure changes - removal of substratum (extraction); and • physical loss (to land or freshwater habitat). Physical loss of habitat and removal of substratum are particularly damaging pressures, while the sensitivity of blue mussel beds to non-indigenous species depended on the species assessed. Crepidula fornicata and Crassostrea gigas both had the potential to outcompete and replace mussel beds, so resulted in a high sensitivity assessment. Mytilus spp. populations are considered to have a strong ability to recover from environmental disturbance. A good annual recruitment may allow a bed to recovery rapidly, though this cannot always be expected due to the sporadic nature of M. edulis recruitment. Therefore, blue mussel beds were considered to have a 'Medium' resilience (recovery within 2-10 years). As a result, even where the removal or loss of proportion of a mussel bed was expected due to a pressure, a sensitivity of 'Medium' was reported. Hence, most of the sensitivities reported were 'Medium'. It was noted, however, that the recovery rates of blue mussel beds were reported to be anywhere between two years to several decades. In addition, M. edulis is considered very tolerant of a range of physical and chemical conditions. As a result, blue mussel beds were considered to be 'Not sensitive' to changes in temperature, salinity, de-oxygenation, nutrient and organic enrichment, and substratum type, at the benchmark level of pressure. The report found that no distinct differences in overall sensitivity exist between the HPI, PMF and OSPAR definitions. Individual biotopes do however have different sensitivities to pressures, and the OSPAR definition only includes blue mussel beds on sediment. These differences were determined by the position of the habitat on the shore and the sediment type. For example, the infralittoral rock biotope (A3.361) was unlikely to be exposed to pressures that affect sediments. However in the case of increased water flow, mixed sediment biotopes were considered more stable and ‘Not sensitive’ (at the benchmark level) while the remaining biotopes were likely to be affected.

Using a clearly documented, evidence-based approach to create sensitivity assessments allows the assessment basis and any subsequent decision making or management plans to be readily communicated, transparent and justifiable. The assessments can be replicated and updated where new evidence becomes available ensuring the longevity of the sensitivity assessment tool. For every pressure where sensitivity was previously assessed as a range of scores in MB0102, the assessments made by the evidence review have supported one of the MB0102 assessments. The evidence review has reduced the uncertainty around assessments previously undertaken in the MB0102 project (Tillin et al., 2010) by assigning a single sensitivity score to the pressures as opposed to a range. Finally, as blue mussel bed habitats also contribute to ecosystem function and the delivery of ecosystem services, understanding the sensitivity of these biotopes may also support assessment and management in regard to these. Whatever objective measures are applied to data to assess sensitivity, the final sensitivity assessment is indicative. The evidence, the benchmarks, the confidence in the assessments and the limitations of the process, require a sense-check by experienced marine ecologists before the outcome is used in management decisions.

Risk-aware Planning in BDI Agents

The ability of an autonomous agent to select rational actions is vital in enabling it to achieve its goals. To do so effectively in a high-stakes setting, the agent must be capable of considering the risk and potential reward of both immediate and future actions. In this paper we provide a novel method for calculating risk alongside utility in online planning algorithms. We integrate such a risk-aware planner with a BDI agent, allowing us to build agents that can set their risk aversion levels dynamically based on their changing beliefs about the environment. To guide the design of a risk-aware agent we propose a number of principles which such an agent should adhere to and show how our proposed framework satisfies these principles. Finally, we evaluate our approach and demonstrate that a dynamically risk-averse agent is capable of achieving a higher success rate than an agent that ignores risk, while obtaining a higher utility than an agent with a static risk attitude.

A Shift in Role: The Perspectives of Ontario Secondary Principals Working in Data-Driven Environments

This study occurred in 2009 and questioned how Ontario secondary school principals perceived their role had changed, over a 7 year period, in response to the increased demands of data-driven school environments. Specifically, it sought to identify principals' perceptions on how high-stakes testing and data-driven environments had affected their role, tasks, and accountability responsibilities. This study contextualized the emergence of the Education Quality and Accountability Offices (EQAO) as a central influence in the creation of data-driven school environments, and conceptualized the role of the principal as using data to inform and persuade a shift in thinking about the use of data to improve instruction and student achievement. The findings of the study suggest that data-driven environments had helped principals reclaim their positional power as instructional leaders, using data as an avenue back into the classroom. The use of data shifted the responsibilities of the principal to persuade teachers to work collaboratively to improve classroom instruction in order to demonstrate accountability.

Can Ontario Be the Next Finland? Assessing Whether the Finnish Model Can Meet the Educational Needs of Ontario, Canada

This study examines the adaptability of the Finland model to meet the educational disparities currently observed in the education system in Ontario, Canada. A literature review and a database highlight key characteristics of the Finland model. From this information, Finland and Ontario’s systems are found to be similar in the areas of systemic structure and educational philosophies, and international testing and performance standards. The systems are found to be different in the areas of geography and demographics, social perceptions and attitudes towards education, school system structure, teaching philosophies, teacher education and professional status, and standardized and high-stakes testing. Discussion regarding use of Finnish philosophies to meet Ontario’s needs in the following areas takes place: social perceptions and attitudes towards education, our teaching philosophies, our teacher education and professional status, and our use of high-stakes and standardized testing. Opportunities for future research are also discussed and the major research paper includes a workshop and survey.

Análisis de los factores políticos que incidieron en la participación de los partidos kurdos PDK y UPK en la guerra de Irak 2003–2009

Este estudio de caso se enfoca en identificar cuales fueron los factores que motivaron la participación de los partidos kurdos PDK y UPK en la invasión a Irak 2003 – 2009. Con base en los supuestos teóricos de autores realistas K.Waltz, M. Ayoob y liberales y R. Keohane y J. Nye, se estudian las dinámicas y las interacciones que permitieron establecer un acercamiento con los Estados Unidos con un énfasis específico en los intereses políticos de los partidos kurdos. El kurdistán iraquí llega a ser el área clave para el acercamiento de la potencia a la zona y los intereses políticos permitieron establecer un escenario de cooperación e interdependencia, incrementando tanto la participación como la autonomía de los kurdos en las dinámicas del país y de la región.

One size fits all: the increasing standardisation of English teachers' work in England

English teachers in England have experienced a lengthy period of external constraint, increasingly controlling their practice. This constraint was originated in the 1989 National curriculum. Although in its first version it was in harmony with practice, its numerous revisions have moved it a long way from teachers’ own values and beliefs. This move is illustrated through research into the teaching of literature, which is seen by English teachers as often arid and driven by examinations alone. This period has been increasingly dominated by high-stakes testing, school league tables and frequent school inspections. Another powerful element has been the introduction of Standards for teachers at every career level from student teachers to the Advanced Skills Teachers. Research demonstrates that this introduction of Standards has had some beneficial effects. However, research also shows that the government decision to replace all these, hierarchically structured standards, with a single standard is seen by many teachers as a retrograde step. Evidence from Advanced Skills Teachers of English shows that the government’s additional proposal to bring in a Master Teacher standard is equally problematic. The decline of the National Association for the Teaching of English, the key subject association for English teachers, is discussed in relation to this increasingly negative and constraining environment, concluding that many English teachers are choosing a form of local resistance which, while understandable, weakens the credibility of the profession and erodes the influence of its key voice, NATE.

The lottery-panel task for bi-dimensional parameter-free elicitation of risk attitudes

We propose first, a simple task for the eliciting attitudes toward risky choice, the SGG lottery-panel task, which consists in a series of lotteries constructed to compensate riskier options with higher risk-return trade-offs. Using Principal Component Analysis technique, we show that the SGG lottery-panel task is capable of capturing two dimensions of individual risky decision making i.e. subjects’ average risk taking and their sensitivity towards variations in risk-return. From the results of a large experimental dataset, we confirm that the task systematically captures a number of regularities such as: A tendency to risk averse behavior (only around 10% of choices are compatible with risk neutrality); An attraction to certain payoffs compared to low risk lotteries, compatible with over-(under-) weighting of small (large) probabilities predicted in PT and; Gender differences, i.e. males being consistently less risk averse than females but both genders being similarly responsive to the increases in risk-premium. Another interesting result is that in hypothetical choices most individuals increase their risk taking responding to the increase in return to risk, as predicted by PT, while across panels with real rewards we see even more changes, but opposite to the expected pattern of riskier choices for higher risk-returns. Therefore, we conclude from our data that an “economic anomaly” emerges in the real reward choices opposite to the hypothetical choices. These findings are in line with Camerer's (1995) view that although in many domains, paid subjects probably do exert extra mental effort which improves their performance, choice over money gambles is not likely to be a domain in which effort will improve adherence to rational axioms (p. 635). Finally, we demonstrate that both dimensions of risk attitudes, average risk taking and sensitivity towards variations in the return to risk, are desirable not only to describe behavior under risk but also to explain behavior in other contexts, as illustrated by an example. In the second study, we propose three additional treatments intended to elicit risk attitudes under high stakes and mixed outcome (gains and losses) lotteries. Using a dataset obtained from a hypothetical implementation of the tasks we show that the new treatments are able to capture both dimensions of risk attitudes. This new dataset allows us to describe several regularities, both at the aggregate and within-subjects level. We find that in every treatment over 70% of choices show some degree of risk aversion and only between 0.6% and 15.3% of individuals are consistently risk neutral within the same treatment. We also confirm the existence of gender differences in the degree of risk taking, that is, in all treatments females prefer safer lotteries compared to males. Regarding our second dimension of risk attitudes we observe, in all treatments, an increase in risk taking in response to risk premium increases. Treatment comparisons reveal other regularities, such as a lower degree of risk taking in large stake treatments compared to low stake treatments and a lower degree of risk taking when losses are incorporated into the large stake lotteries. Results that are compatible with previous findings in the literature, for stake size effects (e.g., Binswanger, 1980; Antoni Bosch-Domènech & Silvestre, 1999; Hogarth & Einhorn, 1990; Holt & Laury, 2002; Kachelmeier & Shehata, 1992; Kühberger et al., 1999; B. J. Weber & Chapman, 2005; Wik et al., 2007) and domain effect (e.g., Brooks and Zank, 2005, Schoemaker, 1990, Wik et al., 2007). Whereas for small stake treatments, we find that the effect of incorporating losses into the outcomes is not so clear. At the aggregate level an increase in risk taking is observed, but also more dispersion in the choices, whilst at the within-subjects level the effect weakens. Finally, regarding responses to risk premium, we find that compared to only gains treatments sensitivity is lower in the mixed lotteries treatments (SL and LL). In general sensitivity to risk-return is more affected by the domain than the stake size. After having described the properties of risk attitudes as captured by the SGG risk elicitation task and its three new versions, it is important to recall that the danger of using unidimensional descriptions of risk attitudes goes beyond the incompatibility with modern economic theories like PT, CPT etc., all of which call for tests with multiple degrees of freedom. Being faithful to this recommendation, the contribution of this essay is an empirically and endogenously determined bi-dimensional specification of risk attitudes, useful to describe behavior under uncertainty and to explain behavior in other contexts. Hopefully, this will contribute to create large datasets containing a multidimensional description of individual risk attitudes, while at the same time allowing for a robust context, compatible with present and even future more complex descriptions of human attitudes towards risk.

Incentive effects on risk attitude in small probability prospects

We report between-subject results on the effect of monetary stakes on risk attitudes. While we find the typical risk seeking for small probabilities, risk seeking is reduced under high stakes. This suggests that utility is not consistently concave.

My generation(s): cycles, branding and renewal in E4’s 'Skins'

In an era of fragmenting audience and diversified viewing platforms, youth television needs to move fast and make a lot of noise in order to capture and maintain the attention of the teenage viewer. British ensemble youth drama Skins (E4, 2007-2013) calls attention to itself with its high doses of drugs, chaotic parties and casual attitudes towards sexuality. It also moves quickly, shedding its cast every two seasons as they graduate from school, then renewing itself with a fresh generation of 16 year old characters - three cycles in total. This essay will explore the challenges of maintaining audience connections whilst resetting the narrative clock with each cycle. I suggest that the development of the Skins brand was key to the programme’s success. Branding is particularly important for an audience demographic who increasingly consume their television outside of broadcast flow and essential for a programme which renews its cast every two years. The Skins brand operate as a framework, as the central audience draw, have the strength to maintain audience connections when it ‘graduates’ those characters they identify with at the close of each cycle and starts again from scratch. This essay will explore how the Skins brand constructs a cohesive identity across its multiple generations, yet also consider how the cyclic form poses challenges for the programme’s representations and narratives. This cyclic form allows Skins to repeatedly reach out to a new audience who comes of age alongside each new generation and to reflect shifts in British youth culture. Thus Skins remains ever-youthful, seeking to maintain an at times painfully hip identity. Yet the programme has a somewhat schizophrenic identity, torn between its roots in British realist drama and surrealist comedy and an escapist aspirational glamour that shows the influence of US Teen TV. This combination results in a tendency towards a heightened melodrama at odds with Skins claims for authenticity - its much vaunted teenage advisors and young writers - with the cyclic structure serving to amplify the programme’s excessive tendencies. Each cycle wrestles with a need for continuity and familiarity - partly maintained through brand, aesthetic and setting - yet a desire for freshness and originality, to assert difference from what has gone before. I suggest that the inevitable need for each cycle to ‘top’ what has gone before results in a move away from character-based intimacy and the everyday to high-stakes drama and violence which sits uncomfortably within British youth television.

Oral language competence, young speakers and the Law

Purpose: This paper highlights the forensic implications of language impairment in 2 key (and overlapping) groups of young people: identified victims of maltreatment (abuse and/or neglect) and young offenders.

Method: Two lines of research pertaining to oral language competence and young people's interface with the law are considered: 1 regarding investigative interviewing with children as victims or witnesses in the context of serious allegations of sexual abuse, and the other pertaining to adolescent offenders as suspects, witnesses, or victims. The linguistic demands that forensic interviewing places on these young people are also considered. Literature concerning the impact of early maltreatment on early language acquisition is briefly reviewed, as is the role of theory of mind in relation to the requirements of investigative interviewing of children and adolescents.

Implications: High-risk young people (i.e., those who are subject to child protection orders because of suspected or confirmed maltreatment, and those who are engaged with the youth justice system) face an elevated risk for suboptimal language development but may need to draw on their language skills in high-stakes forensic interviews. Implications for early intervention policy and practice are identified, and the need for greater speech-language pathology advocacy and engagement in forensic interviewing research is emphasized.

American technology policy: evolving strategic interests after the Cold War

Since the end of the Cold War, U.S. policymakers have faced the challenge of addressing the technological requirements of both economic competitiveness and national security. Promoting the technological objectives of competitiveness and security poses a daunting task, as these objectives can differ significantly in terms of autonomy, the private sector’s role, and the time frame involved. The difficulties inherent in meeting these competing needs for technological investment and resources are exacerbated by growing technological globalization. American Technology Policy analyzes the ongoing efforts of politicians, legislators, policymakers, and industry leaders to balance their often-conflicting technological requirements. J. D. Kenneth Boutin examines recent trends and developments in American technology policy as it strives to support high-technology firms without undermining national security. He then considers issues of autonomy, relations between the federal government and industry, and the time frame involved in formulating and implementing policy initiatives, all in the context of globalization. Though satisfying the ambitious American technological agenda is difficult, it is impossible for authorities to avoid making the effort, given the high stakes involved. Boutin’s analysis is intended to inform those who are charged with prioritizing and balancing the technological needs of national defense and economic growth. Although the post–Cold War technology policy of the United States has been characterized by efforts to achieve a balance between these two competing priorities, the dominant focus remains on national security. Boutin explains the ways in which American authorities seek to limit the extent of compromise necessary by working with local and foreign actors and by encouraging structural changes in the environment for technological development, application, and diffusion.

Learning theory for VET teachers

 Teaching in the VET sector is a complex and highly rewarding vocation. This book provides the reader with an in depth exploration of both the theory and the practice of teaching in this sector. Each chapter invites the reader to reflect on their own practice and offers practical examples and case stories to assist the teacher to develop their own professional expertise. The chapters have been written by highly acknowledged VET researchers and teachers and all the chapters have been reviewed by people with high levels of respect and credibility in the field.

This book provides the new teacher or trainee teacher with an overview of the VET sector in Australia and introduces the reader to some of the issues that are part of our VET environment. The book explores some of the dimensions of teaching and the diverse range of learners that are characteristic of any VET classroom, workshop or enterprise setting where teaching is taking place. The book also introduces the reader to some of the major learning theories that are relevant in VET and provides practical guidance on the implications of theory for VET practice.

High quality assessment is critical to the credibility of VET and the book includes a chapter where this controversial area is made accessible to the reader. Language Literacy and Numeracy are now an embedded feature of VET teaching and the chapter on this topic discusses different views of LLN and encourages the reader to interrogate their own skills and apply their learning to the their teaching. eLearning is increasingly part of VET teaching and this is discussed in detail. Similarly engaging with industry is fast becoming a significant part of the role of the VET teacher and the rationale and the practical and day to day implications for this development are explored.The act of teaching is investigated and this chapter brings together many of the themes raised elsewhere. Finally the reader is introduced to the benefits of reflective practice through an exploration of some of the ways that teachers can evaluate the effectiveness of their own teaching.

This book is a must for new teachers and a refreshing read for those already engaged in the field

The systematic influences on student evaluation of teaching in engineering education

BACKGROUND Student evaluation of teaching (SET) has a long history, has grown in prevalence and importance over a period of decades, and is now common-place in many universities internationally. SET data are collected for a range of purposes, including: as diagnostic feedback to improve the quality of teaching and learning; as an input to staff performance management processes and personnel decisions such as promotion for staff; to provide information to prospective students in their selection of courses and programs; and as a source of data for research on teaching. Rovai et al. (2006) report that while SET research provides mixed results, there is evidence that, for course-related factors, smaller classes are rated more favourably than large classes, upper-year-level classes are rated more favourably than lower-year classes, and that there are rating differences between discipline areas. While additional course-related factors are also noted, other reviews of the literature on SET also identify these three factors as commonly reported systematic influences on SET ratings. The School of Engineering at Deakin University in Australia offers undergraduate and postgraduate engineering programs, and these programs are delivered in both on-campus and off-campus modes.PURPOSEThe paper presents a quantitative investigation of SET data for the School of Engineering at Deakin University to identify whether the commonly reported systematic influences on SET ratings of class size and year level are also observed here. The influence of online mode of offer is also explored.DESIGN/METHOD Deakin University’s Student Evaluation of Teaching and Units (SETU) questionnaire is administered to students enrolled in every unit of study every time that unit is offered, unless it is specially exempted. Following data collation, summary results are reported via a public website. The publicly available SETU data for all School of Engineering units of study were collected for a two year period. The collected data were subjected to analysis of variance (ANOVA) analysis to identify any significant systematic influences on mean student SETU ratings.RESULTS SETU data from 100 separate units of study over the two year period were collected, representing 3375 sets of SETU ratings, and covering unit enrolment sizes from 12 to 462 students. Although this was a modest sized investigation, significantly higher mean ratings for some SETU items were observed for units with small enrolments, for postgraduate level units compared to undergraduate level units, and for units offered in conventional mode compared to online mode of offer. The presence of the commonly observed systematic influences on SET ratings was confirmed.CONCLUSIONS While the use of SET data may have originally been primarily for formative purposes to improve teaching and learning, they are also increasingly used for summative judgements of teaching quality and teaching staff performance that have implications for personnel decision making. There may be an acceptance of the need for SET, however there remains no universal consensus as to what constitutes quality in university teaching and learning, and the increasing use of SET for high-stakes decision making puts pressure on institutions to ensure that their SET practices are sound, equitable and defensible.

Managing women with acute physiological deterioration: student midwives performance in a simulated setting

OBJECTIVE: Midwives' ability to manage maternal deterioration and 'failure to rescue' are of concern with questions over knowledge, clinical skills and the implications for maternal morbidity and, mortality rates. In a simulated setting our objective was to assess student midwives' ability to assess, and manage maternal deterioration using measures of knowledge, situation awareness and skill, performance. METHODS: An exploratory quantitative analysis of student performance based upon performance, ratings derived from knowledge tests and observational ratings. During 2010 thirty-five student, midwives attended a simulation laboratory completing a knowledge questionnaire and two video, recorded simulated scenarios. Patient actresses wearing a 'birthing suit' simulated deteriorating, women with post-partum and ante-partum haemorrhage (PPH and APH). Situation awareness was, measured at the end of each scenario. Applicable descriptive and inferential statistical tests were, applied to the data. FINDINGS: The mean total knowledge score was 75% (range 46-91%) with low skill performance, means for both scenarios 54% (range 39-70%). There was no difference in performance between the scenarios, however performance of key observations decreased as the women deteriorated; with significant reductions in key vital signs such as blood pressure and blood loss measurements. Situation, awareness scores were also low (54%) with awareness decreasing significantly (t(32)=2.247, p=0.032), in the second and more difficult APH scenario. CONCLUSION: Whilst knowledge levels were generally good, skills were generally poor and decreased as the women deteriorated. Such failures to apply knowledge in emergency stressful situations may be resolved by repetitive high stakes and high fidelity simulation.