On low-dimensional projections of high-dimensional distributions

Let P be a probability distribution on q -dimensional space. The so-called Diaconis-Freedman effect means that for a fixed dimension d<dimensional projections of P look like a scale mixture of spherically symmetric Gaussian distributions. The present paper provides necessary and sufficient conditions for this phenomenon in a suitable asymptotic framework with increasing dimension q . It turns out, that the conditions formulated by Diaconis and Freedman (1984) are not only sufficient but necessary as well. Moreover, letting P ^ be the empirical distribution of n independent random vectors with distribution P , we investigate the behavior of the empirical process n √ (P ^ −P) under random projections, conditional on P ^ .

SURVIVAL PREDICTION FOR BRAIN TUMOR PATIENTS USING GENE EXPRESSION DATA

Brain tumor is one of the most aggressive types of cancer in humans, with an estimated median survival time of 12 months and only 4% of the patients surviving more than 5 years after disease diagnosis. Until recently, brain tumor prognosis has been based only on clinical information such as tumor grade and patient age, but there are reports indicating that molecular profiling of gliomas can reveal subgroups of patients with distinct survival rates. We hypothesize that coupling molecular profiling of brain tumors with clinical information might improve predictions of patient survival time and, consequently, better guide future treatment decisions. In order to evaluate this hypothesis, the general goal of this research is to build models for survival prediction of glioma patients using DNA molecular profiles (U133 Affymetrix gene expression microarrays) along with clinical information. First, a predictive Random Forest model is built for binary outcomes (i.e. short vs. long-term survival) and a small subset of genes whose expression values can be used to predict survival time is selected. Following, a new statistical methodology is developed for predicting time-to-death outcomes using Bayesian ensemble trees. Due to a large heterogeneity observed within prognostic classes obtained by the Random Forest model, prediction can be improved by relating time-to-death with gene expression profile directly. We propose a Bayesian ensemble model for survival prediction which is appropriate for high-dimensional data such as gene expression data. Our approach is based on the ensemble "sum-of-trees" model which is flexible to incorporate additive and interaction effects between genes. We specify a fully Bayesian hierarchical approach and illustrate our methodology for the CPH, Weibull, and AFT survival models. We overcome the lack of conjugacy using a latent variable formulation to model the covariate effects which decreases computation time for model fitting. Also, our proposed models provides a model-free way to select important predictive prognostic markers based on controlling false discovery rates. We compare the performance of our methods with baseline reference survival methods and apply our methodology to an unpublished data set of brain tumor survival times and gene expression data, selecting genes potentially related to the development of the disease under study. A closing discussion compares results obtained by Random Forest and Bayesian ensemble methods under the biological/clinical perspectives and highlights the statistical advantages and disadvantages of the new methodology in the context of DNA microarray data analysis.

Similarity Mapplet: Interactive Visualization of the Directory of Useful Decoys and ChEMBL in High Dimensional Chemical Spaces

An Internet portal accessible at www.gdb.unibe.ch has been set up to automatically generate color-coded similarity maps of the ChEMBL database in relation to up to two sets of active compounds taken from the enhanced Directory of Useful Decoys (eDUD), a random set of molecules, or up to two sets of user-defined reference molecules. These maps visualize the relationships between the selected compounds and ChEMBL in six different high dimensional chemical spaces, namely MQN (42-D molecular quantum numbers), SMIfp (34-D SMILES fingerprint), APfp (20-D shape fingerprint), Xfp (55-D pharmacophore fingerprint), Sfp (1024-bit substructure fingerprint), and ECfp4 (1024-bit extended connectivity fingerprint). The maps are supplied in form of Java based desktop applications called “similarity mapplets” allowing interactive content browsing and linked to a “Multifingerprint Browser for ChEMBL” (also accessible directly at www.gdb.unibe.ch) to perform nearest neighbor searches. One can obtain six similarity mapplets of ChEMBL relative to random reference compounds, 606 similarity mapplets relative to single eDUD active sets, 30 300 similarity mapplets relative to pairs of eDUD active sets, and any number of similarity mapplets relative to user-defined reference sets to help visualize the structural diversity of compound series in drug optimization projects and their relationship to other known bioactive compounds.

Functional data analysis approaches for genotype-phenotype association studies from next-generation sequencing

Next-generation DNA sequencing platforms can effectively detect the entire spectrum of genomic variation and is emerging to be a major tool for systematic exploration of the universe of variants and interactions in the entire genome. However, the data produced by next-generation sequencing technologies will suffer from three basic problems: sequence errors, assembly errors, and missing data. Current statistical methods for genetic analysis are well suited for detecting the association of common variants, but are less suitable to rare variants. This raises great challenge for sequence-based genetic studies of complex diseases.^ This research dissertation utilized genome continuum model as a general principle, and stochastic calculus and functional data analysis as tools for developing novel and powerful statistical methods for next generation of association studies of both qualitative and quantitative traits in the context of sequencing data, which finally lead to shifting the paradigm of association analysis from the current locus-by-locus analysis to collectively analyzing genome regions.^ In this project, the functional principal component (FPC) methods coupled with high-dimensional data reduction techniques will be used to develop novel and powerful methods for testing the associations of the entire spectrum of genetic variation within a segment of genome or a gene regardless of whether the variants are common or rare.^ The classical quantitative genetics suffer from high type I error rates and low power for rare variants. To overcome these limitations for resequencing data, this project used functional linear models with scalar response to develop statistics for identifying quantitative trait loci (QTLs) for both common and rare variants. To illustrate their applications, the functional linear models were applied to five quantitative traits in Framingham heart studies. ^ This project proposed a novel concept of gene-gene co-association in which a gene or a genomic region is taken as a unit of association analysis and used stochastic calculus to develop a unified framework for testing the association of multiple genes or genomic regions for both common and rare alleles. The proposed methods were applied to gene-gene co-association analysis of psoriasis in two independent GWAS datasets which led to discovery of networks significantly associated with psoriasis.^

Sr/Ca, U/Ca, and stable isotope data and bimonthly records of Ogasawara coral core OGA-02-1

Instrumental climate observations provide robust records of global land and ocean temperatures during the twentieth century. Unlike for temperature, continuous salinity observations in the surface ocean are scarce prior to 1970, and the magnitude of salinity changes during the twentieth century is largely unknown. Surface ocean salinity is a major component in climate dynamics, as it influences ocean circulation and water mass formation. Here we present an annually resolved reconstruction of salinity variations in the surface waters of the western subtropical North Pacific Ocean since 1873, based on bimonthly records of d18O, Sr/Ca, and U/Ca in a coral from the Ogasawara Islands. The reconstruction indicates that an abrupt regime shift toward fresher surface ocean conditions occurred between 1905 and 1910. Observational atmospheric data suggest that the abrupt freshening was associated with a weakening of the winds that drive the Kuroshio Current system and the associated subtropical gyre circulation. We note that the abrupt early-twentieth-century freshening in the western subtropical North Pacific precedes abrupt climate change in the northern North Atlantic by a few years. The potential for abrupt regime shifts in surface ocean salinity should be considered in climate predictions for the coming decades.

Age model, raw data and interpolated raw data from proxy records of sediment cores GeoB6007-1 and GeoB6007-2

Here we present a 1200 yr long benthic foraminiferal Mg/Ca based temperature and oxygen isotope record from a ~900 m deep sediment core off northwest Africa to show that atmosphere-ocean interactions in the eastern subpolar gyre are transferred at central water depth into the eastern boundary of the subtropical gyre. Further we link the variability of the NAO (over the past 165 yrs) and solar irradiance (Late Holocene) and their control on subpolar mode water formation to the multidecadal variability observed at mid-depth in the eastern subtropical gyre. Our results show that eastern North Atlantic central waters cooled by up to ~0.8± 0.7 °C and densities decreased by Sigma theta=0.3±0.2 during positive NAO years and during minima in solar irradiance during the Late Holocene. The presented records demonstrate the sensitivity of central water formation to enhanced atmospheric forcing and ice/freshwater fluxes into the eastern subpolar gyre and the importance of central water circulation for cross-gyre climate signal propagation during the Late Holocene.

Efficient Monte Carlo methods for multi-dimensional learning with classifier chains

Multi-dimensional classification (MDC) is the supervised learning problem where an instance is associated with multiple classes, rather than with a single class, as in traditional classification problems. Since these classes are often strongly correlated, modeling the dependencies between them allows MDC methods to improve their performance – at the expense of an increased computational cost. In this paper we focus on the classifier chains (CC) approach for modeling dependencies, one of the most popular and highest-performing methods for multi-label classification (MLC), a particular case of MDC which involves only binary classes (i.e., labels). The original CC algorithm makes a greedy approximation, and is fast but tends to propagate errors along the chain. Here we present novel Monte Carlo schemes, both for finding a good chain sequence and performing efficient inference. Our algorithms remain tractable for high-dimensional data sets and obtain the best predictive performance across several real data sets.