Design of long-term animal bioassay for low-dose extrapolation using a multistage model

Conventional designs of animal bioassays allocate the same number of animals into control and dose groups to explore the spontaneous and induced tumor incidence rates, respectively. The purpose of such bioassays are (a) to determine whether or not the substance exhibits carcinogenic properties, and (b) if so, to estimate the human response at relatively low doses. In this study, it has been found that the optimal allocation to the experimental groups which, in some sense, minimize the error of the estimated response for low dose extrapolation is associated with the dose level and tumor risk. The number of dose levels has been investigated at the affordable experimental cost. The pattern of the administered dose, 1 MTD, 1/2 MTD, 1/4 MTD,....., etc. plus control, gives the most reasonable arrangement for the low dose extrapolation purpose. The arrangement of five dose groups may make the highest dose trivial. A four-dose design can circumvent this problem and has also one degree of freedom for testing the goodness-of-fit of the response model.^ An example using the data on liver tumors induced in mice in a lifetime study of feeding dieldrin (Walker et al., 1973) is implemented with the methodology. The results are compared with conclusions drawn from other studies. ^

X-ray fluorescence scanning of discrete samples on the Schwalbenberg II loess-paleosol sequence, raw data, magnetic susceptibility, organic carbon and U-ratio as grainsize index

The Schwalbenberg II loess-paleosol sequence (LPS) denotes a key site for Marine Isotope Stage (MIS 3) in Western Europe owing to eight succeeding cambisols, which primarily constitute the Ahrgau Subformation. Therefore, this LPS qualifies as a test candidate for the potential of temporal high-resolution geochemical data obtained X-ray fluorescence (XRF) scanning of discrete samplesproviding a fast and non-destructive tool for determining the element composition. The geochemical data is first contextualized to existing proxy data such as magnetic susceptibility (MS) and organic carbon (Corg) and then aggregated to element log ratios characteristic for weathering intensity [LOG (Ca/Sr), LOG (Rb/Sr), LOG (Ba/Sr), LOG (Rb/K)] and dust provenance [LOG (Ti/Zr), LOG (Ti/Al), LOG (Si/Al)]. Generally, an interpretation of rock magnetic particles is challenged in western Europe, where not only magnetic enhancement but also depletion plays a role. Our data indicates leaching and top-soil erosion induced MS depletion at the Schwalbenberg II LPS. Besides weathering, LOG (Ca/Sr) is susceptible for secondary calcification. Thus, also LOG (Rb/Sr) and LOG (Ba/Sr) are shown to be influenced by calcification dynamics. Consequently, LOG (Rb/K) seems to be the most suitable weathering index identifying the Sinzig Soils S1 and S2 as the most pronounced paleosols for this site. Sinzig Soil S3 is enclosed by gelic gleysols and in contrast to S1 and S2 only initially weathered pointing to colder climate conditions. Also the Remagen Soils are characterized by subtle to moderate positive excursions in the weathering indices. Comparing the Schwalbenberg II LPS with the nearby Eifel Lake Sediment Archive (ELSA) and other more distant German, Austrian and Czech LPS while discussing time and climate as limiting factors for pedogenesis, we suggest that the lithologically determined paleosols are in-situ soil formations. The provenance indices document a Zr-enrichment at the transition from the Ahrgau to the Hesbaye Subformation. This is explained by a conceptual model incorporating multiple sediment recycling and sorting effects in eolian and fluvial domains.

Diurnal and seasonal measurements of seawater chemistry, temperature and PAR in Hurricane Hole, U.S. Virgin Islands - 2010-2012

Risk analyses indicate that more than 90% of the world's reefs will be threatened by climate change and local anthropogenic impacts by the year 2030 under "business-as-usual" climate scenarios. Increasing temperatures and solar radiation cause coral bleaching that has resulted in extensive coral mortality. Increasing carbon dioxide reduces seawater pH, slows coral growth, and may cause loss of reef structure. Management strategies include establishment of marine protected areas with environmental conditions that promote reef resiliency. However, few resilient reefs have been identified, and resiliency factors are poorly defined. Here we characterize the first natural, non-reef coral refuge from thermal stress and ocean acidification and identify resiliency factors for mangrove-coral habitats. We measured diurnal and seasonal variations in temperature, salinity, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and seawater chemistry; characterized substrate parameters; and examined water circulation patterns in mangrove communities where scleractinian corals are growing attached to and under mangrove prop roots in Hurricane Hole, St. John, US Virgin Islands. Additionally, we inventoried the coral species and quantified incidences of coral bleaching, mortality, and recovery for two major reef-building corals, Colpophyllia natans and Diploria labyrinthiformis, growing in mangrove-shaded and exposed (unshaded) areas. Over 30 species of scleractinian corals were growing in association with mangroves. Corals were thriving in low-light (more than 70% attenuation of incident PAR) from mangrove shading and at higher temperatures than nearby reef tract corals. A higher percentage of C. natans colonies were living shaded by mangroves, and no shaded colonies were bleached. Fewer D. labyrinthiformis colonies were shaded by mangroves, however more unshaded colonies were bleached. A combination of substrate and habitat heterogeneity, proximity of different habitat types, hydrographic conditions, and biological influences on seawater chemistry generate chemical conditions that buffer against ocean acidification. This previously undocumented refuge for corals provides evidence for adaptation of coastal organisms and ecosystem transition due to recent climate change. Identifying and protecting other natural, non-reef coral refuges is critical for sustaining corals and other reef species into the future.

Grain-size distributions and bulk chemistry of sediment core MD00-2361

The terrigenous fraction of sediments from a deep-sea sediment core recovered from the northwestern Western Australian continental slope offshore North West Cape, SE Indian Ocean, reveals a history of Western Australian climate throughout the last 550 ka. End-member modelling of a data set of grain-size distributions (n = 438) of the terrigenous sediment fraction allows to interpret the record in terms of aeolian and fluvial sediment deposition, both related to palaeo-environmental conditions in the North West Cape area. The data set can be best described by two aeolian end members and one fluvial one. Changes in the ratio of the two aeolian end members over the fluvial one are interpreted as aridity variations in northwestern Western Australia. These grain-size data are compared with bulk geochemical data obtained by XRF scans of the core. Log-ratios of the elements Zr/Fe and Ti/Ca, which indicate a terrigenous origin, corroborate the grain-size data. We postulate that the mid- to late Quaternary near North West Cape climate was relatively arid during the glacial and relatively humid during the interglacial stages, owing to meridional shifts in the atmospheric circulation system. Opposite to published palaeo-environmental records from the same latitude (20°S) offshore Chile and offshore Namibia, the Australian aridity record does not show the typical southern hemisphere climate variability of humid glacials and dry interglacials, which we interpret to be the result of the relatively large land mass of the Australian continent, which emphasises a strong monsoonal climatic system.

Geochemistry of Ontong Java Plateau basalts

Basement rocks from the Ontong Java Plateau are tholeiitic basalts that appear to record very high degrees of partial melting, much like those found today in the vicinity of Iceland. They display a limited range of incompatible element and isotopic variation, but small differences are apparent between sampled sites and between upper and lower groups of flows at Ocean Drilling Program Site 807.40Ar-39Ar ages of lavas from Site 807 and Deep Sea Drilling Project Site 289 are indistinguishable about an early Aptian mean of 122 Ma (as are preliminary data for the island of Malaita at the southern edge of the plateau), indicating that plateau-building eruptions ended more or less simultaneously at widely separated locations. Pb-Nd-Sr isotopes for lavas from Sites 289, 803, and 807, as well as southern Malaita, reflect a hotspot-like source with epsilon-Nd(T) = +4.0 to +6.3, (87Sr/86Sr)T = 0.70423-0.70339, and 206Pb/204Pb = 18.245-18.709 and possessing consistently greater 208Pb/204Pb for a given 206Pb/204Pb than Pacific MORB. The combination of hotspot-like mantle source, very high degrees of melting, and lack of a discernible age progression is best explained if the bulk of the plateau was constructed rapidly above a surfacing plume head, possibly that of the Louisville hotspot. Basalt and feldspar separates indicate a substantially younger age of ~90 Ma for basement at Site 803; in addition, volcaniclastic layers of mid-Cenomanian through Coniacian age occur at DSDP Site 288, and beds of late Aptian-Albian age are found at Site 289. Therefore, at least some volcanism continued on the plateau for 30 m.y. or more. The basalts at Site 803 are chemically and isotopically very similar to those at the ~122 Ma sites, suggesting that hot plume-type mantle was present beneath the plateau for an extended period or at two different times. Surviving seamounts of the Louisville Ridge formed between 70 and 0 Ma have much higher 206Pb/204Pb than any of the plateau basalts. Thus, assuming the Louisville hotspot was the source of the plateau lavas, a change in the hotspot's isotopic composition may have occurred between roughly 70 and 90 Ma; such a change may have accompanied the plume-head to plume-tail transition. Similar shifts from early, lower 206Pb/204Pb to subsequently higher 206Pb/204Pb values are found in several other oceanic plateau-hotspot and continental flood basalt-hotspot systems, and could reflect either a reduction in the supply of low 206Pb/204Pb mantle or an inability of some off-ridge plume-tails to melt refractory low 206Pb/204Pb material.

Reference list of sources used for two experimental data files dataBSRN and dataMixed

Increasing amounts of data is collected in most areas of research and application. The degree to which this data can be accessed, analyzed, and retrieved, is a decisive in obtaining progress in fields such as scientific research or industrial production. We present a novel methodology supporting content-based retrieval and exploratory search in repositories of multivariate research data. In particular, our methods are able to describe two-dimensional functional dependencies in research data, e.g. the relationship between ination and unemployment in economics. Our basic idea is to use feature vectors based on the goodness-of-fit of a set of regression models to describe the data mathematically. We denote this approach Regressional Features and use it for content-based search and, since our approach motivates an intuitive definition of interestingness, for exploring the most interesting data. We apply our method on considerable real-world research datasets, showing the usefulness of our approach for user-centered access to research data in a Digital Library system.

Modelling the Impact of Built Environment, Geographical Scales and Latent Constructs On Individual Travel Behaviour

La relación entre la estructura urbana y la movilidad ha sido estudiada desde hace más de 70 años. El entorno urbano incluye múltiples dimensiones como por ejemplo: la estructura urbana, los usos de suelo, la distribución de instalaciones diversas (comercios, escuelas y zonas de restauración, parking, etc.). Al realizar una revisión de la literatura existente en este contexto, se encuentran distintos análisis, metodologías, escalas geográficas y dimensiones, tanto de la movilidad como de la estructura urbana. En este sentido, se trata de una relación muy estudiada pero muy compleja, sobre la que no existe hasta el momento un consenso sobre qué dimensión del entorno urbano influye sobre qué dimensión de la movilidad, y cuál es la manera apropiada de representar esta relación. Con el propósito de contestar estas preguntas investigación, la presente tesis tiene los siguientes objetivos generales: (1) Contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la compleja relación estructura urbana y movilidad. y (2) Entender el rol de los atributos latentes en la relación entorno urbano y movilidad. El objetivo específico de la tesis es analizar la influencia del entorno urbano sobre dos dimensiones de la movilidad: número de viajes y tipo de tour. Vista la complejidad de la relación entorno urbano y movilidad, se pretende contribuir al mejor entendimiento de la relación a través de la utilización de 3 escalas geográficas de las variables y del análisis de la influencia de efectos inobservados en la movilidad. Para el análisis se utiliza una base de datos conformada por tres tipos de datos: (1) Una encuesta de movilidad realizada durante los años 2006 y 2007. Se obtuvo un total de 943 encuestas, en 3 barrios de Madrid: Chamberí, Pozuelo y Algete. (2) Información municipal del Instituto Nacional de Estadística: dicha información se encuentra enlazada con los orígenes y destinos de los viajes recogidos en la encuesta. Y (3) Información georeferenciada en Arc-GIS de los hogares participantes en la encuesta: la base de datos contiene información respecto a la estructura de las calles, localización de escuelas, parking, centros médicos y lugares de restauración. Se analizó la correlación entre e intra-grupos y se modelizaron 4 casos de atributos bajo la estructura ordinal logit. Posteriormente se evalúa la auto-selección a través de la estimación conjunta de las elecciones de tipo de barrio y número de viajes. La elección del tipo de barrio consta de 3 alternativas: CBD, Urban y Suburban, según la zona de residencia recogida en las encuestas. Mientras que la elección del número de viajes consta de 4 categorías ordinales: 0 viajes, 1-2 viajes, 3-4 viajes y 5 o más viajes. A partir de la mejor especificación del modelo ordinal logit. Se desarrolló un modelo joint mixed-ordinal conjunto. Los resultados indican que las variables exógenas requieren un análisis exhaustivo de correlaciones con el fin de evitar resultados sesgados. ha determinado que es importante medir los atributos del BE donde se realiza el viaje, pero también la información municipal es muy explicativa de la movilidad individual. Por tanto, la percepción de las zonas de destino a nivel municipal es considerada importante. En el contexto de la Auto-selección (self-selection) es importante modelizar conjuntamente las decisiones. La Auto-selección existe, puesto que los parámetros estimados conjuntamente son significativos. Sin embargo, sólo ciertos atributos del entorno urbano son igualmente importantes sobre la elección de la zona de residencia y frecuencia de viajes. Para analizar la Propensión al Viaje, se desarrolló un modelo híbrido, formado por: una variable latente, un indicador y un modelo de elección discreta. La variable latente se denomina “Propensión al Viaje”, cuyo indicador en ecuación de medida es el número de viajes; la elección discreta es el tipo de tour. El modelo de elección consiste en 5 alternativas, según la jerarquía de actividades establecida en la tesis: HOME, no realiza viajes durante el día de estudio, HWH tour cuya actividad principal es el trabajo o estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HWHs tour si el individuo reaiza paradas intermedias; HOH tour cuya actividad principal es distinta a trabajo y estudios, y no se realizan paradas intermedias; HOHs donde se realizan paradas intermedias. Para llegar a la mejor especificación del modelo, se realizó un trabajo importante considerando diferentes estructuras de modelos y tres tipos de estimaciones. De tal manera, se obtuvieron parámetros consistentes y eficientes. Los resultados muestran que la modelización de los tours, representa una ventaja sobre la modelización de los viajes, puesto que supera las limitaciones de espacio y tiempo, enlazando los viajes realizados por la misma persona en el día de estudio. La propensión al viaje (PT) existe y es específica para cada tipo de tour. Los parámetros estimados en el modelo híbrido resultaron significativos y distintos para cada alternativa de tipo de tour. Por último, en la tesis se verifica que los modelos híbridos representan una mejora sobre los modelos tradicionales de elección discreta, dando como resultado parámetros consistentes y más robustos. En cuanto a políticas de transporte, se ha demostrado que los atributos del entorno urbano son más importantes que los LOS (Level of Service) en la generación de tours multi-etapas. la presente tesis representa el primer análisis empírico de la relación entre los tipos de tours y la propensión al viaje. El concepto Propensity to Travel ha sido desarrollado exclusivamente para la tesis. Igualmente, el desarrollo de un modelo conjunto RC-Number of trips basado en tres escalas de medida representa innovación en cuanto a la comparación de las escalas geográficas, que no había sido hecha en la modelización de la self-selection. The relationship between built environment (BE) and travel behaviour (TB) has been studied in a number of cases, using several methods - aggregate and disaggregate approaches - and different focuses – trip frequency, automobile use, and vehicle miles travelled and so on. Definitely, travel is generated by the need to undertake activities and obtain services, and there is a general consensus that urban components affect TB. However researches are still needed to better understand which components of the travel behaviour are affected most and by which of the urban components. In order to fill the gap in the research, the present dissertation faced two main objectives: (1) To contribute to the better understanding of the relationship between travel demand and urban environment. And (2) To develop an econometric model for estimating travel demand with urban environment attributes. With this purpose, the present thesis faced an exhaustive research and computation of land-use variables in order to find the best representation of BE for modelling trip frequency. In particular two empirical analyses are carried out: 1. Estimation of three dimensions of travel demand using dimensions of urban environment. We compare different travel dimensions and geographical scales, and we measure self-selection contribution following the joint models. 2. Develop a hybrid model, integrated latent variable and discrete choice model. The implementation of hybrid models is new in the analysis of land-use and travel behaviour. BE and TB explicitly interact and allow richness information about a specific individual decision process For all empirical analysis is used a data-base from a survey conducted in 2006 and 2007 in Madrid. Spatial attributes describing neighbourhood environment are derived from different data sources: National Institute of Statistics-INE (Administrative: municipality and district) and GIS (circular units). INE provides raw data for such spatial units as: municipality and district. The construction of census units is trivial as the census bureau provides tables that readily define districts and municipalities. The construction of circular units requires us to determine the radius and associate the spatial information to our households. The first empirical part analyzes trip frequency by applying an ordered logit model. In this part is studied the effect of socio-economic, transport and land use characteristics on two travel dimensions: trip frequency and type of tour. In particular the land use is defined in terms of type of neighbourhoods and types of dwellers. Three neighbourhood representations are explored, and described three for constructing neighbourhood attributes. In particular administrative units are examined to represent neighbourhood and circular – unit representation. Ordered logit models are applied, while ordinal logit models are well-known, an intensive work for constructing a spatial attributes was carried out. On the other hand, the second empirical analysis consists of the development of an innovative econometric model that considers a latent variable called “propensity to travel”, and choice model is the choice of type of tour. The first two specifications of ordinal models help to estimate this latent variable. The latent variable is unobserved but the manifestation is called “indicators”, then the probability of choosing an alternative of tour is conditional to the probability of latent variable and type of tour. Since latent variable is unknown we fit the integral over its distribution. Four “sets of best variables” are specified, following the specification obtained from the correlation analysis. The results evidence that the relative importance of SE variables versus BE variables depends on how BE variables are measured. We found that each of these three spatial scales has its intangible qualities and drawbacks. Spatial scales play an important role on predicting travel demand due to the variability in measures at trip origin/destinations within the same administrative unit (municipality, district and so on). Larger units will produce less variation in data; but it does not affect certain variables, such as public transport supply, that are more significant at municipality level. By contrast, land-use measures are more efficient at district level. Self-selection in this context, is weak. Thus, the influence of BE attributes is true. The results of the hybrid model show that unobserved factors affect the choice of tour complexity. The latent variable used in this model is propensity to travel that is explained by socioeconomic aspects and neighbourhood attributes. The results show that neighbourhood attributes have indeed a significant impact on the choice of the type of tours either directly and through the propensity to travel. The propensity to travel has a different impact depending on the structure of each tour and increases the probability of choosing more complex tours, such as tours with many intermediate stops. The integration of choice and latent variable model shows that omitting important perception and attitudes leads to inconsistent estimates. The results also indicate that goodness of fit improves by adding the latent variable in both sequential and simultaneous estimation. There are significant differences in the sensitivity to the latent variable across alternatives. In general, as expected, the hybrid models show a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to a classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. The integrated model leads to a more detailed analysis of the behavioural process. Summarizing, the effect that built environment characteristics on trip frequency studied is deeply analyzed. In particular we tried to better understand how land use characteristics can be defined and measured and which of these measures do have really an impact on trip frequency. We also tried to test the superiority of HCM on this field. We can concluded that HCM shows a major improvement into the goodness of fit of the model, compared to classical discrete choice model that does not incorporate latent effects. And consequently, the application of HCM shows the importance of LV on the decision of tour complexity. People are more elastic to built environment attributes than level of services. Thus, policy implications must take place to develop more mixed areas, work-places in combination with commercial retails.

Bayesian model selection of structural explanatory models: Application to road accident data

Using the Bayesian approach as the model selection criteria, the main purpose in this study is to establish a practical road accident model that can provide a better interpretation and prediction performance. For this purpose we are using a structural explanatory model with autoregressive error term. The model estimation is carried out through Bayesian inference and the best model is selected based on the goodness of fit measures. To cross validate the model estimation further prediction analysis were done. As the road safety measures the number of fatal accidents in Spain, during 2000-2011 were employed. The results of the variable selection process show that the factors explaining fatal road accidents are mainly exposure, economic factors, and surveillance and legislative measures. The model selection shows that the impact of economic factors on fatal accidents during the period under study has been higher compared to surveillance and legislative measures.

Psychometric behaviour of the strengths and difficulties questionnaire (SDQ) in the Spanish national health survey 2006

Background: The Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire (SDQ) is a tool to measure the risk for mental disorders in children. The aim of this study is to describe the diagnostic efficiency and internal structure of the SDQ in the sample of children studied in the Spanish National Health Survey 2006. Methods: A representative sample of 6,773 children aged 4 to 15 years was studied. The data were obtained using the Minors Questionnaire in the Spanish National Health Survey 2006. The ROC curve was constructed and calculations made of the area under the curve, sensitivity, specificity and the Youden J indices. The factorial structure was studied using models of exploratory factorial analysis (EFA) and confirmatory factorial analysis (CFA). Results: The prevalence of behavioural disorders varied between 0.47% and 1.18% according to the requisites of the diagnostic definition. The area under the ROC curve varied from 0.84 to 0.91 according to the diagnosis. Factor models were cross-validated by means of two different random subsamples for EFA and CFA. An EFA suggested a three correlated factor model. CFA confirmed this model. A five-factor model according to EFA and the theoretical five-factor model described in the bibliography were also confirmed. The reliabilities of the factors of the different models were acceptable (>0.70, except for one factor with reliability 0.62). Conclusions: The diagnostic behaviour of the SDQ in the Spanish population is within the working limits described in other countries. According to the results obtained in this study, the diagnostic efficiency of the questionnaire is adequate to identify probable cases of psychiatric disorders in low prevalence populations. Regarding the factorial structure we found that both the five and the three factor models fit the data with acceptable goodness of fit indexes, the latter including an externalization and internalization dimension and perhaps a meaningful positive social dimension. Accordingly, we recommend studying whether these differences depend on sociocultural factors or are, in fact, due to methodological questions.

DIGDIS: Stata module to analyze the distribution of digits

digdis tabulates the distribution of digits of the specified variables, performs goodness-of-fit tests against a reference distribution and, optionally, graphs the distributions. The default is to tabulate the first (nonzero) digit and to test against Benford's law. The moremata package and the mgof package, also available from SSC, are required.

Value Creation in Family Firms: A Model of Fit

We propose a framework describing how family ownership can create or destroy value depending on the goals, resources, and governance of the family firm, which are each influenced by the family owners. Taking a contingency perspective, we suggest that a fit is required for all three elements – family- influenced goals, resources, and governance – for the family firm to flourish over generations. We conclude with a suggested research agenda indicating research opportunities at the nexus of these identified elements. Further we provide some guiding questions for practitioners that might stimulate fruitful discussions among family firm owners and managers about how to realize ‘‘fit.’’

Statistical analysis of the goodness of classical factor analysis regression (CFAR) /

Cover title.

On the power, wisdom, and goodness of God : as manifested in the creation of animals, and in their history, habits, and instincts /

Includes bibliographical references and index.