Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World

An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time Varying Parameters (TVP) estimated by Bayesian methods. In core out-of-sample results, we improve upon a random walk benchmark for at least half, and for as many as eight out of ten, of the currencies considered. This contrasts with a constant parameter Taylor rule model that yields a more limited improvement upon the benchmark. In further results, Purchasing Power Parity and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity TVP models beat a random walk benchmark, implying our methods have some generality in exchange rate prediction.

Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model

This paper employs an unobserved component model that incorporates a set of economic fundamentals to obtain the Euro-Dollar permanent equilibrium exchange rates (PEER) for the period 1975Q1 to 2008Q4. The results show that for most of the sample period, the Euro-Dollar exchange rate closely followed the values implied by the PEER. The only significant deviations from the PEER occurred in the years immediately before and after the introduction of the single European currency. The forecasting exercise shows that incorporating economic fundamentals provides a better long-run exchange rate forecasting performance than a random walk process.

On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability

We analyse the role of time-variation in coefficients and other sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We find that predictive models which allow for sudden rather than smooth, changes in coefficients significantly beat the random walk benchmark in out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Using innovative variance decomposition scheme, we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients' variability, as the main factors hindering models' forecasting performance. The uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor is small.

Transaction Costs and Institutions: Investments in Exchange

This paper proposes a simple model for understanding transaction costs for their composition, size and policy implications. We distinguish between investments in institutions that facilitate exchange and the cost of conducting exchange itself. Institutional quality and market size are determined by the decisions of risk averse agents and conditions are discussed under which the efficient allocation may be decentralized. We highlight a number of differences with models where transaction costs are exogenous, including the implications for taxation and measurement issues.

Analyzing aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data

In this paper we analyze the persistence of aggregate real exchange rates (RERs) for a group of EU-15 countries by using sectoral data. The tight relation between aggregate and sectoral persistence recently investigated by Mayoral (2008) allows us to decompose aggregate RER persistence into the persistence of its different subcomponents. We show that the distribution of sectoral persistence is highly heterogeneous and very skewed to the right, and that a limited number of sectors are responsible for the high levels of persistence observed at the aggregate level. We use quantile regression to investigate whether the traditional theories proposed to account for the slow reversion to parity (lack of arbitrage due to nontradibilities or imperfect competition and price stickiness) are able to explain the behavior of the upper quantiles of sectoral persistence. We conclude that pricing to market in the intermediate goods sector together with price stickiness have more explanatory power than variables related to the tradability of the goods or their inputs.

Energetics of RecA-mediated recombination reactions. Without ATP hydrolysis RecA can mediate polar strand exchange but is unable to recycle.

We demonstrate that the step of DNA strand exchange during RecA-mediated recombination reaction can occur equally efficiently in the presence or absence of ATP hydrolysis. The polarity of strand exchange is the same when instead of ATP its non-hydrolyzable analog adenosine-5'-O-(3-thiotriphosphate) is used. We show that the ATP dependence of recombination reaction is limited to the post-exchange stages of the reactions. The low DNA affinity state of RecA protomers, induced after ATP hydrolysis, is necessary for the dissociation of RecA-DNA complexes at the end of the reaction. This dissociation of RecA from DNA is necessary for the release of recombinant DNA molecules from the complexes formed with RecA and for the recycling of RecA protomers for another round of the recombination reaction.

Protein interaction data curation: the International Molecular Exchange (IMEx) consortium.

The International Molecular Exchange (IMEx) consortium is an international collaboration between major public interaction data providers to share literature-curation efforts and make a nonredundant set of protein interactions available in a single search interface on a common website (http://www.imexconsortium.org/). Common curation rules have been developed, and a central registry is used to manage the selection of articles to enter into the dataset. We discuss the advantages of such a service to the user, our quality-control measures and our data-distribution practices.

Is the Spanish Inheritance and Gift Tax incompatible with the free movement of workers and capital?: The reasoned opinion of the EU Commission IP/10/513

The aim of my speech is answering to the question if the Spanish Inheritance and Gift Tax is incompatible with the free movement of workers and capital. We are going to pay special attention to the European Commission’s request to Spain to change its Inheritance and Gift Tax provisions for Non-Residents or Assets held abroad. In order to answer to the question mentioned above five points will be explained. At first place I am going to describe the infrengement procedure established in the Article 258 that the EU Commission can follow when a Member State doesn’t comply with Community Law. At second place, we are going to explain what is the content of the EU Commission delivered on 5th of may 2010 regarding the spanish Inheritance and Gift Tax. Then, we will analise what establishes the Community Law regarding the freedom of workers and capital and how they are understood by the EU Court of Justice in similar cases. Finally, we are going to provide possible amendments that Spain could undertake.

On problems of calculating energy expenditure and substrate utilization from respiratory exchange data.

Indirect calorimetry based on respiratory exchange measurement has been successfully used from the beginning of the century to obtain an estimate of heat production (energy expenditure) in human subjects and animals. The errors inherent to this classical technique can stem from various sources: 1) model of calculation and assumptions, 2) calorimetric factors used, 3) technical factors and 4) human factors. The physiological and biochemical factors influencing the interpretation of calorimetric data include a change in the size of the bicarbonate and urea pools and the accumulation or loss (via breath, urine or sweat) of intermediary metabolites (gluconeogenesis, ketogenesis). More recently, respiratory gas exchange data have been used to estimate substrate utilization rates in various physiological and metabolic situations (fasting, post-prandial state, etc.). It should be recalled that indirect calorimetry provides an index of overall substrate disappearance rates. This is incorrectly assumed to be equivalent to substrate "oxidation" rates. Unfortunately, there is no adequate golden standard to validate whole body substrate "oxidation" rates, and this contrasts to the "validation" of heat production by indirect calorimetry, through use of direct calorimetry under strict thermal equilibrium conditions. Tracer techniques using stable (or radioactive) isotopes, represent an independent way of assessing substrate utilization rates. When carbohydrate metabolism is measured with both techniques, indirect calorimetry generally provides consistent glucose "oxidation" rates as compared to isotopic tracers, but only when certain metabolic processes (such as gluconeogenesis and lipogenesis) are minimal or / and when the respiratory quotients are not at the extreme of the physiological range. However, it is believed that the tracer techniques underestimate true glucose "oxidation" rates due to the failure to account for glycogenolysis in the tissue storing glucose, since this escapes the systemic circulation. A major advantage of isotopic techniques is that they are able to estimate (given certain assumptions) various metabolic processes (such as gluconeogenesis) in a noninvasive way. Furthermore when, in addition to the 3 macronutrients, a fourth substrate is administered (such as ethanol), isotopic quantification of substrate "oxidation" allows one to eliminate the inherent assumptions made by indirect calorimetry. In conclusion, isotopic tracers techniques and indirect calorimetry should be considered as complementary techniques, in particular since the tracer techniques require the measurement of carbon dioxide production obtained by indirect calorimetry. However, it should be kept in mind that the assessment of substrate oxidation by indirect calorimetry may involve large errors in particular over a short period of time. By indirect calorimetry, energy expenditure (heat production) is calculated with substantially less error than substrate oxidation rates.

The mzTab Data Exchange Format: Communicating Mass-spectrometry-based Proteomics and Metabolomics Experimental Results to a Wider Audience.

The HUPO Proteomics Standards Initiative has developed several standardized data formats to facilitate data sharing in mass spectrometry (MS)-based proteomics. These allow researchers to report their complete results in a unified way. However, at present, there is no format to describe the final qualitative and quantitative results for proteomics and metabolomics experiments in a simple tabular format. Many downstream analysis use cases are only concerned with the final results of an experiment and require an easily accessible format, compatible with tools such as Microsoft Excel or R. We developed the mzTab file format for MS-based proteomics and metabolomics results to meet this need. mzTab is intended as a lightweight supplement to the existing standard XML-based file formats (mzML, mzIdentML, mzQuantML), providing a comprehensive summary, similar in concept to the supplemental material of a scientific publication. mzTab files can contain protein, peptide, and small molecule identifications together with experimental metadata and basic quantitative information. The format is not intended to store the complete experimental evidence but provides mechanisms to report results at different levels of detail. These range from a simple summary of the final results to a representation of the results including the experimental design. This format is ideally suited to make MS-based proteomics and metabolomics results available to a wider biological community outside the field of MS. Several software tools for proteomics and metabolomics have already adapted the format as an output format. The comprehensive mzTab specification document and extensive additional documentation can be found online.

Genetic diversity and genetic exchange in Trypanosoma cruzi: dual drug-resistant "progeny" from episomal transformants

Extensive characterisation of Trypanosoma cruzi by isoenzyme phenotypes has separated the species into three principal zymodeme groups, Z1, Z2 and Z3, and into many individual zymodemes. There is marked diversity within Z2. A strong correlation has been demonstrated between the strain clusters determined by isoenzymes and those obtained using random amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) profiles. Polymorphisms in ribosomal RNA genes, in mini-exon genes, and microsatellite fingerprinting indicate the presence of at least two principal T. cruzi genetic lineages. Lineage 1 appears to correspond with Z2 and lineage 2 with Z1. Z1 (lineage 2) is associated with Didelphis. Z2 (lineage 1) may be associated with a primate host. Departures from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and linkage disequilibrium indicate that propagation of T. cruzi is predominantly clonal. Nevertheless, two studies show putative homozygotes and heterozygotes circulating sympatrically: the allozyme frequencies for phosphoglucomutase, and hybrid RAPD profiles suggest that genetic exchange may be a current phenomenon in some T. cruzi transmission cycles. We were able to isolate dual drug-resistant T. cruzi biological clones following copassage of putative parents carrying single episomal drug-resistant markers. A multiplex PCR confirmed that dual drug-resistant clones carried both episomal plasmids. Preliminary karyotype analysis suggests that recombination may not be confined to the extranuclear genome.

Annual Report of the Needle & Syringe Exchange Scheme for the period 1st April 2013 to 31st March 2014.

This report summarises data that is collected on the operation of the Northern Ireland Needle and Syringe Exchange Scheme (NSES). It relates to the twelve-month period between 1st April 2013 and 31st March 2014. The anonymised data is collected by the 14 pharmacies and 1 Trust-based service that participate in the Northern Ireland Needle and Syringe Exchange Scheme (NSES) which was introduced in April 2001.

What Price Salvation? The Exchange of Salvation goods between India and the West

Does Weber's notion of salvation goods, along with the connected one of the religious market, apply to the modern history of yoga? The case study chosen here (the yoga of Pattabhi Jois) clearly shows that these notions highlight many aspects of the expansion of yoga into a global market product. However, the notion of salvation goods resists the new hermeneutical situation of encounter and has to be adapted to the present situation of religious "patchwork". The notion of religious market lacks depth to describe the various understandings and appropriations of yoga in precise historical situations. Other aspects of the current global status of yoga may be highlighted by applying the concept of pilgrimage. La notion de bien de salut que nous lègue Max Weber et la notion de marché religieux qui en découle peuvent-elles s'appliquer à l'histoire moderne du yoga? L'étude de cas que nous consacrons au yoga de Pattabhi Jois montre que ces notions éclairent bien certains aspects de l'expansion du yoga en tant que produit d'un marché globalisé. Cependant la notion de bien de salut résiste à une réflexion de type herméneutique sur les processus de rencontres et doit être adaptée à la situation contemporaine, ou` les religions se présentent comme des ensembles composites. La notion de marché religieux ne permet pas d'expliquer les diverses compréhensions et appropriations du yoga dans des situations historiques précises. D'autres aspects de la situation du yoga sont mieux explicités si on prend le concept de pèlerinage comme point de référence.

An Ontology for Open Rubric Exchange on the Web

While the Internet has given educators access to a steady supply of Open Educational Resources, the educational rubrics commonly shared on the Web are generally in the form of static, non-semantic presentational documents or in the proprietary data structures of commercial content and learning management systems.With the advent of Semantic Web Standards, producers of online resources have a new framework to support the open exchange of software-readable datasets. Despite these advances, the state of the art of digital representation of rubrics as sharable documents has not progressed.This paper proposes an ontological model for digital rubrics. This model is built upon the Semantic Web Standards of the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C), principally the Resource Description Framework (RDF) and Web Ontology Language (OWL).