Analysis of temperature time-series: embedding dynamics into the MDS method

Global warming and the associated climate changes are being the subject of intensive research due to their major impact on social, economic and health aspects of the human life. Surface temperature time-series characterise Earth as a slow dynamics spatiotemporal system, evidencing long memory behaviour, typical of fractional order systems. Such phenomena are difficult to model and analyse, demanding for alternative approaches. This paper studies the complex correlations between global temperature time-series using the Multidimensional scaling (MDS) approach. MDS provides a graphical representation of the pattern of climatic similarities between regions around the globe. The similarities are quantified through two mathematical indices that correlate the monthly average temperatures observed in meteorological stations, over a given period of time. Furthermore, time dynamics is analysed by performing the MDS analysis over slices sampling the time series. MDS generates maps describing the stations’ locus in the perspective that, if they are perceived to be similar to each other, then they are placed on the map forming clusters. We show that MDS provides an intuitive and useful visual representation of the complex relationships that are present among temperature time-series, which are not perceived on traditional geographic maps. Moreover, MDS avoids sensitivity to the irregular distribution density of the meteorological stations.

Analysis of financial indices by means of the windowed Fourier transform

The goal of this study is to analyze the dynamical properties of financial data series from nineteen worldwide stock market indices (SMI) during the period 1995–2009. SMI reveal a complex behavior that can be explored since it is available a considerable volume of data. In this paper is applied the window Fourier transform and methods of fractional calculus. The results reveal classification patterns typical of fractional order systems.

A theoretical study on modelling the respiratory tract with ladder networks by means of intrinsic fractal geometry

Fractional order modeling of biological systems has received significant interest in the research community. Since the fractal geometry is characterized by a recurrent structure, the self-similar branching arrangement of the airways makes the respiratory system an ideal candidate for the application of fractional calculus theory. To demonstrate the link between the recurrence of the respiratory tree and the appearance of a fractional-order model, we develop an anatomically consistent representation of the respiratory system. This model is capable of simulating the mechanical properties of the lungs and we compare the model output with in vivo measurements of the respiratory input impedance collected in 20 healthy subjects. This paper provides further proof of the underlying fractal geometry of the human lungs, and the consequent appearance of constant-phase behavior in the total respiratory impedance.

Dynamical modelling of a genetic algorithm

This work addresses the signal propagation and the fractional-order dynamics during the evolution of a genetic algorithm (GA). In order to investigate the phenomena involved in the GA population evolution, the mutation is exposed to excitation perturbations during some generations and the corresponding fitness variations are evaluated. Three distinct fitness functions are used to study their influence in the GA dynamics. The input and output signals are studied revealing a fractional-order dynamic evolution, characteristic of a long-term system memory.

New findings on the dynamics of HIV and TB coinfection models

In this paper we study a model for HIV and TB coinfection. We consider the integer order and the fractional order versions of the model. Let α∈[0.78,1.0] be the order of the fractional derivative, then the integer order model is obtained for α=1.0. The model includes vertical transmission for HIV and treatment for both diseases. We compute the reproduction number of the integer order model and HIV and TB submodels, and the stability of the disease free equilibrium. We sketch the bifurcation diagrams of the integer order model, for variation of the average number of sexual partners per person and per unit time, and the tuberculosis transmission rate. We analyze numerical results of the fractional order model for different values of α, including α=1. The results show distinct types of transients, for variation of α. Moreover, we speculate, from observation of the numerical results, that the order of the fractional derivative may behave as a bifurcation parameter for the model. We conclude that the dynamics of the integer and the fractional order versions of the model are very rich and that together these versions may provide a better understanding of the dynamics of HIV and TB coinfection.

Analysis of Forest Fires by means of Pseudo Phase Plane and Multidimensional Scaling Methods

Forest fires dynamics is often characterized by the absence of a characteristic length-scale, long range correlations in space and time, and long memory, which are features also associated with fractional order systems. In this paper a public domain forest fires catalogue, containing information of events for Portugal, covering the period from 1980 up to 2012, is tackled. The events are modelled as time series of Dirac impulses with amplitude proportional to the burnt area. The time series are viewed as the system output and are interpreted as a manifestation of the system dynamics. In the first phase we use the pseudo phase plane (PPP) technique to describe forest fires dynamics. In the second phase we use multidimensional scaling (MDS) visualization tools. The PPP allows the representation of forest fires dynamics in two-dimensional space, by taking time series representative of the phenomena. The MDS approach generates maps where objects that are perceived to be similar to each other are placed on the map forming clusters. The results are analysed in order to extract relationships among the data and to better understand forest fires behaviour.

The Persistence of Memory

This paper analyzes several natural and man-made complex phenomena in the perspective of dynamical systems. Such phenomena are often characterized by the absence of a characteristic length-scale, long range correlations and persistent memory, which are features also associated to fractional order systems. For each system, the output, interpreted as a manifestation of the system dynamics, is analyzed by means of the Fourier transform. The amplitude spectrum is approximated by a power law function and the parameters are interpreted as an underlying signature of the system dynamics. The complex systems under analysis are then compared in a global perspective in order to unveil and visualize hidden relationships among them.

Sonogashira coupling on an extended gold surface in vacuo: reaction of phenylacetylene with iodobenzene on Au(111)

Temperature-programmed reaction measurements supported by scanning tunneling microscopy have shown that phenylacetylene and iodobenzene react on smooth Au(111) under vacuum conditions to yield biphenyl and diphenyldiacetylene, the result of homocoupling of the reactant molecules. They also produce diphenylacetylene, the result of Sonogashira cross-coupling, prototypical of a class of reactions that are of paramount importance in synthetic organic chemistry and whose mechanism remains controversial. Roughened Au(111) is completely inert toward all three reactions, indicating that the availability of crystallographically well-defined adsorption sites is crucially important. High-resolution X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy and near-edge X-ray absorption fine structure spectroscopy show that the reactants are initially present as intact, essentially flat-lying molecules and that the temperature threshold for Sonogashira coupling coincides with that for C−I bond scission in the iodobenzene reactant. The fractional-order kinetics and low temperature associated with desorption of the Sonogashira product suggest that the reaction occurs at the boundaries of islands of adsorbed reactants and that its appearance in the gas phase is rate-limited by the surface reaction. These findings demonstrate unambiguously and for the first time that this heterogeneous cross-coupling chemistry is an intrinsic property of extended, metallic pure gold surfaces: no other species, including solvent molecules, basic or charged (ionic) species are necessary to mediate the process.

Robust eigenstructure assignment in quadratic matrix polynomials: nonsingular case

Feedback design for a second-order control system leads to an eigenstructure assignment problem for a quadratic matrix polynomial. It is desirable that the feedback controller not only assigns specified eigenvalues to the second-order closed loop system but also that the system is robust, or insensitive to perturbations. We derive here new sensitivity measures, or condition numbers, for the eigenvalues of the quadratic matrix polynomial and define a measure of the robustness of the corresponding system. We then show that the robustness of the quadratic inverse eigenvalue problem can be achieved by solving a generalized linear eigenvalue assignment problem subject to structured perturbations. Numerically reliable methods for solving the structured generalized linear problem are developed that take advantage of the special properties of the system in order to minimize the computational work required. In this part of the work we treat the case where the leading coefficient matrix in the quadratic polynomial is nonsingular, which ensures that the polynomial is regular. In a second part, we will examine the case where the open loop matrix polynomial is not necessarily regular.

System identification algorithms for the analysis of dielectric responses from broadband spectroscopies

We discuss the modeling of dielectric responses for an electromagnetically excited network of capacitors and resistors using a systems identification framework. Standard models that assume integral order dynamics are augmented to incorporate fractional order dynamics. This enables us to relate more faithfully the modeled responses to those reported in the Dielectrics literature.

Effects of past climate variability on fire and vegetation in the cerrãdo savanna of the Huanchaca Mesetta, NE Bolivia

Cerrãdo savannas have the greatest fire activity of all major global land-cover types and play a significant role in the global carbon cycle. During the 21st century, temperatures are projected to increase by ∼ 3 ◦C coupled with a precipitation decrease of ∼ 20 %. Although these conditions could potentially intensify drought stress, it is unknown how that might alter vegetation composition and fire regimes. To assess how Neotropical savannas responded to past climate changes, a 14 500-year, high-resolution, sedimentary record from Huanchaca Mesetta, a palm swamp located in the cerrãdo savanna in northeastern Bolivia, was analyzed with phytoliths, stable isotopes, and charcoal. A nonanalogue, cold-adapted vegetation community dominated the Lateglacial–early Holocene period (14 500–9000 cal yr BP, which included trees and C3 Pooideae and C4 Panicoideae grasses. The Lateglacial vegetation was fire-sensitive and fire activity during this period was low, likely responding to fuel availability and limitation. Although similar vegetation characterized the early Holocene, the warming conditions associated with the onset of the Holocene led to an initial increase in fire activity. Huanchaca Mesetta became increasingly firedependent during the middle Holocene with the expansion of C4 fire-adapted grasses. However, as warm, dry conditions, characterized by increased length and severity of the dry season, continued, fuel availability decreased. The establishment of the modern palm swamp vegetation occurred at 5000 cal yr BP. Edaphic factors are the first-order control on vegetation on the rocky quartzite mesetta. Where soils are sufficiently thick, climate is the second-order control of vegetation on the mesetta. The presence of the modern palm swamp is attributed to two factors: (1) increased precipitation that increased water table levels and (2) decreased frequency and duration of surazos (cold wind incursions from Patagonia) leading to increased temperature minima. Natural (soil, climate, fire) drivers rather than anthropogenic drivers control the vegetation and fire activity at Huanchaca Mesetta. Thus the cerrãdo savanna ecosystem of the Huanchaca Plateau has exhibited ecosystem resilience to major climatic changes in both temperature and precipitation since the Lateglacial period.

Macro- and microstructure of the superior cervical ganglion in dogs, cats and horses during maturation

The superior cervical ganglion (SCG) provides sympathetic input to the head and neck, its relation with mandible, submandibular glands, eyes (second and third order control) and pineal gland being demonstrated in laboratory animals. In addition, the SCG's role in some neuropathies can be clearly seen in Horner's syndrome. In spite of several studies published involving rats and mice, there is little morphological descriptive and comparative data of SCG from large mammals. Thus, we investigated the SCG's macro- and microstructural organization in medium (dogs and cats) and large animals (horses) during a very specific period of the post-natal development, namely maturation (from young to adults). The SCG of dogs, cats and horses were spindle shaped and located deeply into the bifurcation of the common carotid artery, close to the distal vagus ganglion and more related to the internal carotid artery in dogs and horses, and to the occipital artery in cats. As to macromorphometrical data, that is ganglion length, there was a 23.6% increase from young to adult dogs, a 1.8% increase from young to adult cats and finally a 34% increase from young to adult horses. Histologically, the SCG's microstructure was quite similar between young and adult animals and among the 3 species. The SCG was divided into distinct compartments (ganglion units) by capsular septa of connective tissue. Inside each ganglion unit the most prominent cellular elements were ganglion neurons, glial cells and small intensely fluorescent cells, comprising the ganglion's morphological triad. Given this morphological arrangement, that is a summation of all ganglion units, SCG from dogs, cats and horses are better characterized as a ganglion complex rather than following the classical ganglion concept. During maturation (from young to adults) there was a 32.7% increase in the SCG's connective capsule in dogs, a 25.8% increase in cats and a 33.2% increase in horses. There was an age-related increase in the neuronal profile size in the SCG from young to adult animals, that is a 1.6-fold, 1.9-fold and 1.6-fold increase in dogs, cats and horses, respectively. on the other hand, there was an age-related decrease in the nuclear profile size of SCG neurons from young to adult animals (0.9-fold, 0.7-fold and 0.8-fold in dogs, cats and horses, respectively). Ganglion connective capsule is composed of 2 or 3 layers of collagen fibres in juxtaposition and, as observed in light microscopy and independently of the animal's age, ganglion neurons were organised in ganglionic units containing the same morphological triad seen in light microscopy. Copyright (c) 2007 S. Karger AG, Basel.

Soluções numéricas de Equações Diferenciais Fracionária e Ordinária para o cálculo da distribuição da concentração em um sistema de compartimento

The purpose of this work was the study of numerical methods for differential equations of fractional order and ordinary. These methods were applied to the problem of calculating the distribution of the concentration of a given substance over time in a given physical system. The two compartment model was used for representation of this system. Comparison between numerical solutions obtained were performed and, in particular, also compared with the analytical solution of this problem. Finally, estimates for the error between the solutions were calculated

Acute doxorubicin-induced cardiotoxicity is associated with matrix metalloproteinase-2 alterations in rats

Background: Doxorubicin can cause cardiotoxicity. Matrix metalloproteinases (MMP) are responsible for degrading extracellular matrix components which play a role in ventricular dilation. Increased MMP activity occurs after chronic doxorubicin treatment. In this study we evaluated in vivo and in vitro cardiac function in rats with acute doxorubicin treatment, and examined myocardial MMP and inflammatory activation, and gene expression of proteins involved in myocyte calcium transients. Methods: Wistar rats were injected with doxorubicin (Doxo, 20 mg/kg) or saline (Control). Echocardiogram was performed 48 h after treatment. Myocardial function was assessed in vitro in Langendorff preparation. Results: In left ventricle, doxorubicin impaired fractional shortening (Control 0.59 +/- 0.07; Doxo 0.51 +/- 0.05; p < 0.001), and increased isovolumetric relaxation time (Control 20.3 +/- 4.3; Doxo 24.7 +/- 4.2 ms; p = 0.007) and myocardial passive stiffness. MMP-2 activity, evaluated by zymography, was increased in Doxo (Control 141338 +/- 8924; Doxo 188874 +/- 7652 arbitrary units; p < 0.001). There were no changes in TNF-alpha, INF-gamma, IL-10, and ICAM-1 myocardial levels. Expression of phospholamban, Serca-2a, and ryanodine receptor did not differ between groups. Conclusion: Acute doxorubicin administration induces in vivo left ventricular dysfunction and in vitro increased myocardial passive stiffness in rats. Cardiac dysfunction is related to myocardial MMP-2 activation. Increased inflammatory stimulation or changed expression of the proteins involved in intracellular calcium transients is not involved in acute cardiac dysfunction.

Patterns and controls of sediment production, transfer and yield in the Illgraben

Quantification of the volumes of sediment removed by rock–slope failure and debris flows and identification of their coupling and controls are pertinent to understanding mountain basin sediment yield and landscape evolution. This study captures a multi-decadal period of hillslope erosion and channel change following an extreme rock avalanche in 1961 in the Illgraben, a catchment prone to debris flows in the Swiss Alps. We analyzed photogrammetrically-derived datasets of hillslope and channel erosion and deposition along with climatic and seismic variables for a 43 year period from 1963 to 2005. Based on these analyses we identify and discuss (1) patterns of hillslope production, channel transfer and catchment sediment yield, (2) their dominant interactions with climatic and seismic variables, and (3) the nature of hillslope–channel coupling and implications for sediment yield and landscape evolution in this mountain basin. Our results show an increase in the mean hillslope erosion rate in the 1980s from 0.24 ± 0.01 m yr− 1 to 0.42 ± 0.03 m yr− 1 that coincided with a significant increase in air temperature and decrease in snow cover depth and duration, which we presume led to an increase in the exposure of the slopes to thermal weathering processes. The combination of highly fractured slopes close to the threshold angle for failure, and multiple potential triggering mechanisms, means that it is difficult to identify an individual control on slope failure. On the other hand, the rate of channel change was strongly related to variables influencing runoff. A period of particularly high channel erosion rate of 0.74 ± 0.02 m yr− 1 (1992–1998) coincided with an increase in the frequency and magnitude of intense rainfall events. Hillslope erosion exceeded channel erosion on average, indicative of a downslope-directed coupling relationship between hillslope and channel, and demonstrating the first order control of rock–slope failure on catchment sediment yield and landscape evolution.